Core Insights - The aquaculture sector experienced a slight increase of 0.31% on November 7, with Tianyu Biological leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3997.56, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, down 0.36% [1] Aquaculture Sector Performance - Tianyu Biological (603717) closed at 9.46, up 3.05% with a trading volume of 169,600 shares and a turnover of 160 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Luoniushan (000735) at 8.12, up 2.40% with a volume of 1,088,900 shares [1] - Zhengbang Technology (002157) at 66.7, up 1.36% with a volume of 1,212,200 shares [1] - Muyuans (002714) at 49.71, up 0.93% with a volume of 285,500 shares [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The aquaculture sector saw a net inflow of 223 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 11.04 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Muyuan (002714) with a net inflow of 214 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Jingji Zhino (000048) with a net inflow of 50.59 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Zhengbang Technology (002157) with a net inflow of 24.48 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the livestock sector, particularly in beef and dairy farming, predicting a turning point in the domestic beef cycle by 2025, with prices expected to rise significantly [1][14] - The report recommends a selection of stocks in the livestock and feed sectors, highlighting companies like Yuran Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group as key investment opportunities [1][3] Livestock Sector - The report anticipates a reversal in the beef cycle, with domestic beef prices expected to rise due to a combination of domestic supply adjustments and international price increases [14] - The dairy market is projected to improve, driven by a rising meat-to-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows and enhance profitability for dairy farming companies [14] - Key recommended stocks in the livestock sector include Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu [14][18] Swine Sector - The report highlights a recovery in the swine sector, with a focus on leading companies like DeKang Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery as the market stabilizes [15][19] - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.49 CNY/kg, reflecting a 6% month-on-month increase, while the price of piglets decreased by 9.18% [2][21] - The report notes that the industry is experiencing a rational approach to breeding, with a stable number of breeding sows maintained [21][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is expected to see increased demand, with prices for broiler chickens and chicks rising, indicating a recovery in consumption as the market enters a peak season [34][37] - The report mentions that the supply of yellow-feathered chickens remains low, which may benefit leading producers as domestic demand improves [40][41] - Recommended stocks in the poultry sector include Lihua Stock and Shengnong Development [19] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a growth area, with domestic consumption expected to continue rising, particularly in pet food and healthcare [16] - Key recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet and Reap Bio [16][19] Feed Sector - The feed sector is projected to benefit from a recovery in aquaculture and livestock production, with Haida Group highlighted as a leading player in the feed market [1][19] - The report indicates that the price of corn, a key feed ingredient, is currently at a historical low, providing a strong cost support for feed production [21][22] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have decreased by 5.37% month-on-month [2][21] - The overall agricultural sector is expected to experience a gradual recovery, with specific attention to the dynamics of supply and demand for key commodities [19][22]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a low overall allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, with a heavy stock allocation ratio of 0.78% as of Q3 2025, which is below the standard allocation ratio and historical average [2][11][19] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant reduction in heavy stock allocations in the feed and breeding sectors, with breeding at 0.31% and feed at 0.40% for Q3 2025, both showing a decline compared to previous quarters [12][19] - Major companies such as Haida Group and Muyuan Foods have reduced their allocations, indicating a trend of decreased investment in leading stocks within the sector [3][14] - The report suggests that the breeding sector is entering a phase of high-quality development, recommending investments in low-cost leading companies and growth-oriented stocks [4][19] Summary by Sections Heavy Stock Allocation Analysis - As of the end of Q3 2025, the heavy stock allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is 0.78%, down 0.58 percentage points from the previous quarter and 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [11][12] - The heavy stock allocation in the breeding industry is 0.31%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, while the feed industry allocation is 0.40%, down 0.45 percentage points [12][14] Company-Specific Allocation Changes - Among the top 15 heavy stocks, most companies have reduced their allocations, with Haida Group and Muyuan Foods decreasing by 0.34 percentage points and 0.04 percentage points, respectively [3][14] - The top five stocks with increased heavy stock allocation include Tiankang Biological (+2.42%) and Hainan Rubber (+1.41%), while the top five with decreased allocations include Zhongchong Pet (-3.21%) and Juxing Agriculture (-3.14%) [15][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading stocks in the breeding sector such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as seasonal rebounds in chicken prices [4][19] - For breeding support (feed and animal health), it suggests monitoring leading companies like Haida Group and BANGJI Technology for potential restructuring opportunities [4][19] - The planting sector shows stable profitability, with recommendations to pay attention to companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4][19]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has seen a midday surge, with the highest "pig content" ETF (159275) experiencing a brief low-level fluctuation before a sudden rise, currently up by 0.2% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery ETF (159275) opened with a slight dip but later rose, reflecting a positive market sentiment [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including Brother Technology, Jin Xin Nong, and Mei Hua Biological, saw significant gains, with Brother Technology rising over 5% and several others increasing by more than 1% [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Recent trends indicate that national pig prices initially rose to 12.35 yuan/kg, a peak for October, but later fell due to insufficient demand and increased market supply [2] - Analysts predict accelerated de-capacity in the pig farming sector, with a focus on biological breeding and the promotion of genetically modified corn [3] - The poultry industry is expected to benefit from price increases in the white feather chicken supply chain due to overseas avian influenza impacts [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery ETF (159275) is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, tracking the comprehensive agricultural index with significant exposure to leading pig farming companies [5] - The ETF's index shows a price-to-book ratio of 2.56, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a turnaround in Q3, achieving profitability after losses in previous quarters, with a net profit of 138 million yuan in Q3, a significant improvement from previous losses [2][3] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 13.493 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 75.27% to 287 million yuan [2] - The company has seen a recovery in chicken prices since August, leading to profitability in its chicken business, while the pig farming segment continues to benefit from improved production efficiency and declining costs [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 138 million yuan, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [3] - The company sold 415 million yellow feathered chickens, generating sales revenue of 10.059 billion yuan [4] - The average selling price of chickens in Q1, Q2, and Q3 was 10.95, 10.55, and 11.49 yuan per kilogram, respectively [4] Business Segments - The chicken business reported a net loss of 84 million yuan in the first three quarters, but Q3 showed a profit of approximately 50 million yuan [3] - The pig farming segment sold 1.5058 million pigs, generating sales revenue of 2.705 billion yuan, with a net profit of approximately 354 million yuan [5] Cost Management - The complete cost of chicken in Q3 was approximately 11.4 yuan per kilogram, up from 11 yuan in the first half of the year, but still manageable due to rising prices [4][6] - The complete cost of pigs has been decreasing, reaching 12.6 yuan per kilogram in Q3, with a target of 12 yuan by the end of the year [5][7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position in the chicken industry, with an anticipated increase in market share due to the exit of less competitive players [6] - Projections for revenue and net profit for 2025-2027 are 17.924 billion yuan, 8.37 billion yuan; 21.016 billion yuan, 18.29 billion yuan; and 23.589 billion yuan, 23.38 billion yuan, respectively [7]

Group 1 - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector showed strong performance, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) rising by 1.21% at the close [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector included edible fungi, pig farming, and seeds, with notable gains from companies like Zhongxing Junye and Luoniushan, both hitting the daily limit [1][3] - The recent rebound in pig prices, with an increase of 6.1% from the previous week, has positively impacted the sector [2][3] Group 2 - Short-term pressure on pig sales has eased, with a decrease in the overall output from large enterprises and an increase in secondary fattening [3][4] - The industry is expected to focus on quality improvement and efficiency, with a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity [4][5] - The agricultural ETF (159275) is currently at a relatively low price-to-book ratio of 2.56, indicating a good long-term investment opportunity [3][5] Group 3 - The agricultural ETF tracks the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with a significant concentration in leading companies in the sector, including Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [5][6] - Investors can also access the agricultural ETF through linked funds for broader exposure to the sector [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The pork price center has significantly risen, leading to a notable reduction in industry losses. The average price of live pigs has increased to 12.51 CNY/kg, a week-on-week rise of 7.20% [2][13] - The agricultural sector is expected to maintain a good development momentum, with grain production projected to be high this year, including summer grain production of 299.48 billion jin and early rice production increasing by 6.8 billion jin, a growth of 1.2% [1][12] - The industry is currently in a supply-demand tug-of-war, with large-scale pig farms adopting strategies to control supply and raise prices, while demand is expected to improve with the arrival of warmer weather and the pickling season [2][13] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The agricultural sector is implementing key policies to support rural economic development, with a focus on achieving food security and enhancing crop yields through biotechnology [1][12] - Major beneficiaries in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, while in the seed industry, companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech are highlighted for their competitive advantages [1][12] Pig Farming - The pig farming industry is still experiencing losses, but there has been a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous week, with self-breeding farms reporting an average loss of 89.33 CNY per head, down nearly 100 CNY [2][13] - The industry is expected to undergo a process of capacity reduction, with a focus on improving quality and efficiency, leading to the gradual elimination of outdated production capacity [2][13] - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include companies like DeKang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, and Muyuan Foods [2][13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2241.67 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.66% [27][28] - Wheat: The average price is 2482.11 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [30][32] - Soybeans: The average price is 3996.84 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.06% [41][44] - Cotton: The average price in Xinjiang is 14660 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [46][50] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.6 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.38% [53][55] - The average price of Vitamin E is 50.30 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 14.58% [62][63]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates strong performance in the poultry and pig farming sectors, with a positive outlook for profitability driven by industry recovery and cost leadership [1][2][3]. Poultry Sector - The company achieved a total output of 410 million yellow feathered chickens in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1]. - The average selling price for yellow feathered chickens in Q3 2025 is estimated at 11.54 yuan per kilogram, with a cost of 11.4 yuan per kilogram, resulting in an average profit of approximately 0.3 yuan per chicken [1]. - The poultry segment is expected to contribute profits of around 40 to 50 million yuan [1]. Pig Farming Sector - The company reported a total output of 1.51 million pigs in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 90% [2]. - The estimated price for pigs in Q3 2025 is around 13.9 yuan per kilogram, with an average profit of approximately 160 to 180 yuan per pig, contributing profits of about 90 to 100 million yuan from the pig segment [2]. - The company’s pig farming costs are among the industry leaders, with expectations for continued cost reduction and pricing advantages due to proximity to high-demand markets [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its market presence outside of East China, with an expected annual growth rate of 8-10% in yellow feathered chicken output [3]. - Projected net profits for the company are estimated at 815 million yuan, 1.67 billion yuan, and 2.07 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.97, 1.99, and 2.47 yuan [3].

Investment Strategy and Key Stock Portfolio - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical phase for achieving socialist modernization, with an implied growth rate requirement of approximately 4.7% during this period. The focus is on high-quality development, emphasizing total factor productivity, resident consumption rates, and domestic demand [3][9] - The improvement in China-US relations is noted, with a meeting between the leaders on October 30 discussing economic cooperation and resulting in a consensus that includes the suspension of certain tariffs and export controls. This is expected to enhance risk appetite in the market [3][9] - There is a continued demand for stabilizing domestic demand in the fourth quarter, with a reported GDP growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, making it feasible to meet the annual target of 5%. However, there are signs of slowing retail sales growth and negative fixed asset investment growth [10][11] - The Federal Reserve has continued its gradual interest rate cuts, with a clear end to quantitative tightening (QT) by December 1. This is seen as a move to maintain the Fed's independence and data-driven decision-making [10][11] Key Stock Recommendations - The report includes a selection of stocks across various industries, highlighting their potential based on current market conditions and company fundamentals. The recommended stocks include: - Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) in the petrochemical sector, with a focus on its resilience and dividend policy [12][13] - Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) in basic chemicals, benefiting from its integrated supply chain and expected recovery in market demand [12][13] - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317.SZ) in the pharmaceutical sector, with a strong pipeline and expected revenue growth [12][13] - Kaili Medical (300633.SZ) in the medical sector, focusing on high-end product launches and market expansion [12][13] - Lihua Co., Ltd. (300761.SZ) in agriculture, benefiting from stable growth in poultry production [12][13] - Top Group (601689.SH) in the automotive sector, expected to benefit from its position as a key supplier to Tesla [12][13] - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) in electronics, with strong demand for semiconductor products [12][13] - Northern Huachuang (002371.SZ) in electronics, benefiting from the acceleration of domestic semiconductor production [12][13] - Anhui Heli (600761.SH) in machinery, focusing on global expansion and smart logistics [12][13] - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) in machinery, benefiting from the recovery in the excavator industry [12][13] ETF Recommendations - The report also recommends several ETFs, including: - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (588000.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 47.13% [15] - E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme ETF (159819.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 69.58% [15] - Chemical ETF (159870.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 25.97% [15] - GF CSI Infrastructure Engineering ETF (516970.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 9.09% [15] - Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF (512400.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 85.37% [15]

Core Insights - The aquaculture sector experienced a 1.0% increase on October 31, with Tianyu Biological leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [1] Aquaculture Sector Performance - Tianyu Biological (603717) closed at 9.16, up 4.93% with a trading volume of 254,000 shares and a transaction value of 234 million [1] - Huaying Agriculture (002321) closed at 2.90, up 4.69% with a trading volume of 654,900 shares and a transaction value of 188 million [1] - Other notable performers include *ST Tianshan (300313) up 3.34%, Luoniushan (000735) up 2.37%, and Xiaoming Co. (300967) up 1.65% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The aquaculture sector saw a net inflow of 290 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 190 million [2] - Major stocks like Muyuan Foods (002714) had a net inflow of 203 million, while Wens Foodstuffs (300498) had a net inflow of 61 million [3] - The overall trend indicates a shift in capital, with institutional investors showing confidence in the sector while retail investors are withdrawing [2][3]