三只松鼠主营业务净利润下跌超79% 三个月内两次涨价 同样是卖零食，三只松鼠是零食品牌商，同时兼营零售渠道；万辰集团则是量贩零食渠道商，同时也有 一些自有品牌。对比往年，三只松鼠去年的净利润水平已经低于2024年、2023年，而万辰集团净利润则 与前两年一样，仍在快速增长。 除了披露净利润外，业绩预告显示，三只松鼠预计，2025年，其扣除非经常性损益的净利润为4500万元 至6500万元，同比下降了79.64%至85.91%。也就是说，其主营业务净利润下降得更快。 同样是卖零食，同一天发布业绩预告的三只松鼠和万辰集团，业绩冰火两重天。 对于业绩变动，三只松鼠称，2025年度，公司坚定贯彻"高端性价比"总战略，并向品质化和差异化持续 升级。由于2025年度销售旺季（年货节）结构性错档、坚果原料价格较大幅度上涨、主动调整销售结构 （优化传统店型、整合渠道资源、缩减低效品类等），综合导致利润下滑。与此同时，公司抢抓社区零 售新赛道机遇，推出全品类自有品牌"生活馆"新店型，配套打造基于生鲜和现制的"中央厨房"，聚焦长 期高质量增长，前期战略性投入进一步影响阶段利润产出。 1月29日，三只松鼠发布业绩预告称，2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The brand "Hao Xiang Lai," under Wancheng Group, has been rapidly expanding its stores but has faced frequent complaints regarding issues like "short weight," which directly harms consumer interests [1] Group 1 - "Hao Xiang Lai" is a brand under Wancheng Group that has seen significant store expansion in recent years [1] - The rapid expansion of the brand has been accompanied by reports of consumer complaints about "short weight" practices [1] - The issue of "short weight" indicates a direct detriment to consumer interests, raising concerns about the brand's business practices [1]

Group 1 - The core issue reported by consumers is that the actual weight of snacks purchased at "Hao Xiang Lai" is less than the weight indicated by the store, leading to overcharging of approximately 6.41 yuan for 129 grams of snacks [2][3] - "Hao Xiang Lai" attributes the weight discrepancy to operational errors by new employees, but this explanation lacks credibility given that multiple products were affected [3][4] - The problem of inaccurate weight measurements is not isolated to "Hao Xiang Lai," as similar complaints have been reported at other snack brands, indicating a broader issue within the industry regarding weight measurement practices [4] Group 2 - The rapid expansion of "Hao Xiang Lai" has been accompanied by frequent reports of weight discrepancies, which directly harm consumer interests and undermine the brand's reputation [4][5] - The company is urged to implement a daily verification system for product measurements and improve employee training to prevent future occurrences of weight discrepancies [4] - Maintaining user reputation and product experience is crucial for the company's development, and issues like "short weight" can severely damage credibility [5]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around consumer complaints regarding the weight of snacks purchased at "Hao Xiang Lai," a brand under Wancheng Group, where the actual weight was found to be lower than the weight indicated in-store [2][3] - A specific case highlighted that the consumer was overcharged by 6.41 yuan due to a discrepancy of approximately 129 grams in weight [3] - The company attributed the issue to operational mistakes by new employees, but the frequency of such complaints raises concerns about the overall measurement practices and employee training [4] Group 2 - "Hao Xiang Lai" has been rapidly expanding its store presence, but this growth has been accompanied by recurring issues of weight discrepancies, which directly affect consumer trust and satisfaction [4] - The phenomenon of "short weight" is not isolated to "Hao Xiang Lai," as similar issues have been reported across other snack brands, often dismissed by companies as mere employee errors [4] - The company is urged to implement stricter quality control measures and daily verification of product weights to address these recurring issues and restore consumer confidence [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 276.00 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with a positive trend in store efficiency observed in Q4. The expected revenue for 2025 is projected to be between RMB 50 billion and RMB 52.8 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.7% to 63.3% [5][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted to be between RMB 1.23 billion and RMB 1.4 billion, indicating a substantial increase of 319.1% to 377.0% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a rapid store opening pace in 2026, with ongoing expansion in non-zero food categories and proprietary brands, which will enhance same-store performance [5][6][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 32.33 billion - 2025: RMB 51.94 billion - 2026: RMB 62.33 billion - 2027: RMB 72.31 billion - The year-on-year growth rates for these years are projected at 247.86%, 60.66%, 20.00%, and 16.00% respectively [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach: - 2024: RMB 293.52 million - 2025: RMB 1.38 billion - 2026: RMB 2.05 billion - 2027: RMB 2.52 billion - The corresponding growth rates are 453.95%, 370.61%, 48.67%, and 22.71% [4]. Operational Insights - The company is enhancing its supply chain efficiency through systematic improvements, which are expected to drive gross margin expansion. The net profit margin for the snack retail business is projected to improve to 4.4%-5.1% in 2025, compared to 2.7% in 2024 [7][8]. - The company is also focusing on deepening membership operations, with the number of members reaching 150 million by August 2025, and increasing the average purchase frequency among active members [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is diversifying its product offerings by adding categories such as baking, cooking oils, and frozen products, which will enhance store performance and flexibility in site selection [8]. - The ongoing optimization of operational efficiency through supply chain integration is expected to solidify cost advantages and improve inventory management [8].

证券研究报告 万辰集团 (300972 CH) 盈利能力明显提升，Q4 店效趋势向好 华泰研究 公告点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(人民币): 276.00 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 石狄 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090003 SFC No. BVO045 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 季珂* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080003 jike@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 会计年度 (人民币) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (百万) | 32,329 | 51,941 | 62,330 | 72,305 | | +/-% | 247.86 | 60.66 | 20.00 | 16.00 | | 归属母公司净利润 | 293.52 | 1,381 | 2,054 | 2,520 | | (百万) | | | ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Shengyi Technology (生益科技) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.25 to 3.45 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 87% to 98%. Shengyi Electronics (生益电子) anticipates a net profit of approximately 1.44 to 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 331.03% to 355.88% [4] - Wei Ce Technology (伟测科技) forecasts a net profit of around 300 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 133.96%. The growth is driven by the penetration of AI and automotive electronics, as well as the recovery in consumer electronics [4] - Jindan Technology (金丹科技) projects a net profit of 96 to 138 million yuan for 2025, indicating a significant year-on-year growth of 156% to 268%. The growth is attributed to the successful launch of a 50,000-ton lactic acid expansion project and a decrease in procurement costs [10] - Hengfeng Paper (恒丰纸业) anticipates a net profit of 178 to 215 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54% to 86%. The growth is primarily due to the successful launch of a new production line and breakthroughs in overseas markets [11] - Jieya Co. (洁雅股份) expects a net profit of 72 to 88 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 270% to 352%. The growth is driven by increased orders from major international clients and an improved business structure [12] Group 2: Industry Trends - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association reported that pure electric vehicle sales in the EU surged by 51% year-on-year to 217,898 units in December 2025, surpassing gasoline vehicles for the first time. The market share reached 22.6% [7] - In December, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 40 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 43% but an increase of 84% month-on-month. The cumulative installed capacity for the year reached 315 GW, a year-on-year increase of 14% [8] - The snack food sector, represented by Wancheng Group (万辰集团), is expected to see a net profit of 1.23 to 1.4 billion yuan for 2025, driven by the continuous growth of the bulk snack business and an increase in store numbers to approximately 19,000 [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer discretionary sector [7] Core Insights - The "Work Plan" issued by the State Council aims to stimulate domestic demand by fostering new growth points in service consumption, focusing on six key areas including transportation, housekeeping, and online audiovisual services, as well as three potential areas: performance services, sports events, and emotional experience services [1][2] - The report emphasizes that service consumption is a natural direction for consumption upgrading and the pursuit of a better life by residents, with significant long-term potential in China as service consumption typically increases with GDP growth [1] - The report suggests that the recovery of service consumption will help shift traffic from online to offline, benefiting related industries such as dining, tourism, and retail [1] Summary by Sections Service Consumption Growth - The "Work Plan" includes twelve specific measures to enhance service consumption, with a focus on optimizing supply and encouraging innovative consumption scenarios [2][4] - The report highlights the importance of developing high-quality supply and encourages proactive exploration of new business models in the service sector [4] Transportation and Tourism Integration - The "Work Plan" proposes initiatives such as developing senior tourism trains and enhancing the quality of cruise and night tour services, which are expected to benefit related sectors [3] - The report notes that the integration of transportation and tourism, along with the emergence of quality tourism supply, will lead to an upturn in specific tourism segments [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the consumer sector, including: - Travel Chain: Recommended companies include Atour, Huazhu Group, Shoulv Hotel, and China Duty Free [5] - Ready-to-Drink Beverages and Dining: Recommended companies include Guming, Yum China, Yihai International, Dashihua, Chabaidao, Xiaocaiyuan, and Haidilao [5] - Emotional Consumption: Recommended companies include Pop Mart, Laopu Gold, Blukoo, Miniso, Shangmei, Maogeping, and Juzibio [5] - Scenario Chains: Recommended companies include Guoquan, Wancheng Group, Wanwu Xingsheng, and Shengbeila [5] - Sports Apparel: Recommended companies include Anta, Amer Sports, and Li Ning [5] Key Company Insights - Pop Mart has initiated share buybacks, reflecting confidence in growth prospects, and is expected to accelerate the diversification of its IP structure [12] - Laopu Gold is anticipated to perform well during the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations of exceeding sales forecasts due to ongoing brand expansion and strong market demand [12] - Miniso's recent performance has exceeded guidance, driven by a successful large store strategy and improved operational efficiency [12]

近日，有公开报道指出，有消费者在社交平台发布视频称，其在万辰集团（300972）旗下"好想来"门店 购买的零食，称重后存在不准确的情况。 对此，好想来方面回应称，"好想来始终高度重视产品计量与服务质量，所有门店使用的计量器具均依 法经检定合格，并严格执行每日校验制度，如发现误差立即停用并维修或更换，确保计量准确。我们关 注到此次事件后，第一时间进行了内部核查。经确认，此次问题源于新员工操作失误。当地市场监督管 理局在关注到情况后，也已专门到我店现场对相关计量器具进行了核验，并确认电子秤本身符合标准、 计量准确。公司已对相关员工进行重新培训，并在第一时间通过多种渠道主动联系消费者致歉与协商赔 偿，但截至目前尚未获得消费者回应。我们也仍在持续尝试联系该消费者，希望妥善解决此事。" （公开报道、企业回应） ...

Group 1: Company Announcements - Meinian Health plans to participate in the restructuring of Zhejiang Bangjie Holdings, aiming to become the controlling shareholder post-restructuring [1] - Silver Industry's gold and silver product revenues are low, with gold sales contributing 18.67% and silver 4.54% to total revenue in H1 2025 [2] - Tianneng Wind Power has decided to implement long-term production halts for six wholly-owned subsidiaries to optimize resource allocation and focus on core offshore wind power business [3] Group 2: Price and Supply Risks - Tongling Nonferrous Metals reports significant uncertainty in the prices of cathode copper and other main products, with low self-sufficiency in copper concentrate posing supply stability risks [4] - ST Aowei received a notice of termination of listing due to market capitalization falling below 500 million yuan for 20 consecutive trading days [5][6] Group 3: Performance Forecasts - Foton Motor expects a net profit increase of approximately 1551% to around 1.33 billion yuan in 2025, driven by sales growth across various segments [7] - Beimo High-Tech anticipates a net profit of 190 million to 220 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 1076.16% to 1261.87% [8] - Zhongke Sanhuan forecasts a net profit increase of 566.23% to 899.35%, driven by cost control and market expansion [9] - Wancheng Group expects a net profit of 1.23 billion to 1.4 billion yuan, a growth of 222.38% to 266.94% [10] - Wan Yi Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 191.52% to 330.34%, supported by product optimization and cost reduction measures [11] - Nanmo Biology expects a net profit of 24 million to 34 million yuan, a growth of 269.49% to 423.44% [12] - Bai'ao Saitou forecasts a net profit increase of 384.26% to 443.88%, benefiting from overseas market expansion [13] - Hailanxin anticipates a net profit of 40 million to 60 million yuan, a growth of 387.47% to 631.2% [14] - Panzhihua Coal expects a net profit of 318 million to 380 million yuan, a growth of 205.3% to 264.83% [15] - Huaguang New Materials forecasts a net profit increase of 104.67% to 141.88% [16] - Putian Technology expects a net profit of 1.92 million to 2.88 million yuan, a growth of 71.55% to 157.33% [17] - Guoda Special Materials anticipates a net profit increase of 82.61% [18] - Tongkun Co. expects a net profit of 1.95 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, a growth of 62.24% to 78.88% [19] - Yiming Pharmaceutical forecasts a net profit increase of 61.12% to 122.08% [20] - Guosheng Securities expects a net profit of 210 million to 280 million yuan, a growth of 25.44% to 67.25% [21] - Shengyi Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 87% to 98% [22] Group 4: Loss Forecasts - Saifutian expects a loss of 30 million to 45 million yuan, significantly reducing previous losses [23] - Magang Group forecasts a loss of 190 million to 250 million yuan, a substantial reduction in losses [24] - Shennong Seed Industry anticipates a profit of 90 million to 120 million yuan, reversing previous losses [25] - Jifeng Co. expects a profit of 410 million to 495 million yuan, reversing previous losses [26] - Bingchuan Network forecasts a profit of 436 million to 516 million yuan, reversing previous losses [27] - Zhongyou Technology anticipates a profit of 540 million to 640 million yuan, reversing previous losses [28] - Dongfang Biology expects a loss of 523 million yuan [29] - Wantai Biological anticipates a loss of 330 million to 410 million yuan due to market pressures [30] - Anbotong expects a loss of 114 million to 165 million yuan [31] - Shunxin Agriculture forecasts a loss of 116 million to 188 million yuan due to declining sales [32] - Guozhong Water expects a loss of 130 million to 104 million yuan, with potential delisting risks [33] Group 5: Major Contracts - China Communication Signal expects to win 21 major projects worth approximately 5.26 billion yuan [34]