Core Insights - The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart projects Bitcoin's price to range from approximately $40,000 to just under $460,000 by February 28, 2026, depending on the valuation band [1] Valuation Bands - The lowest band, 'Basically a Fire Sale,' indicates extreme undervaluation between roughly $41,800 and $54,700, driven by panic and capitulation [2] - The 'BUY!' band ranges from about $54,700 to $73,700, reflecting levels historically supportive of long-term accumulation as downside risk diminishes [2] - The 'Accumulate' band, from approximately $73,700 to $95,100, signals a market that is still cheap on a long-term basis but no longer distressed [3] - The 'Still cheap' band is projected between about $95,100 and $122,800, indicating continued undervaluation relative to Bitcoin's long-term trend despite improving sentiment [3] - The 'HODL!' band, from roughly $122,800 to $160,800, represents fair value where long-term holders are incentivized to hold rather than trade aggressively [4] - The 'Is this a bubble?' band spans about $160,800 to $204,800, indicating rising speculation and increasing overheating risk [4] - The 'FOMO intensifies' band ranges from approximately $204,800 to $262,300, marked by fear-driven inflows and higher volatility [5] - The 'Sell. Seriously, SELL!' band is between roughly $262,300 and $341,400, historically linked to late-cycle excess and elevated downside risk [5] - The 'Maximum Bubble Territory' is projected from about $341,400 to $459,000, coinciding with unsustainable rallies and major market peaks [5] Current Market Position - As of February 4, Bitcoin was trading near $75,900, close to the lower edge of the 'Accumulate' band relative to the February 28, 2026 projection [6] - The model suggests Bitcoin could deliver substantial upside from today's level near $76,000 without entering bubble territory, with prices below $95,000 in early 2026 remaining within historically associated long-term value ranges [7] - Bitcoin was trading at $76,027, having dropped over 2% in the past 24 hours and down nearly 15% on a weekly basis [8] - The current price indicates a stressed market, firmly below its 50-day SMA near $89,000 and the 200-day SMA around $103,500, pointing to a strong bearish trend [12] - The 14-day RSI at roughly 26 signals deeply oversold conditions, suggesting selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion and setting the stage for a potential short-term rebound [12]

Group 1 - Dow Jones futures rose slightly, along with S&P 500 futures, while Nasdaq futures edged higher [1] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Lumentum Holdings (LITE) were highlighted as key earnings movers after the market close [1] - The stock market rally saw major indexes retreat, with the Nasdaq breaking below key support levels [1] Group 2 - The Nasdaq experienced its fourth distribution day in five trading sessions, indicating a sell-off in software stocks [1] - Despite a beat-and-raise earnings report, AMD's stock dropped [1] - Lumentum reported strong earnings and revenue, exceeding expectations [1]

U.S. stock futures were fluctuating on Wednesday following Tuesday’s negative close. Futures of major benchmark indices were mixed.President Donald Trump signed a funding deal to end the four-day partial government shutdown, though the brief closure has already triggered delays for critical economic indicators. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.27%, and the two-year bond was at 3.58%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 91.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leav ...

Core Viewpoint - AMD's Q4 revenue exceeded $10 billion, achieving a record high with a year-over-year growth rate of over 30%, although EPS growth has slowed down [2][3][8] Revenue and Earnings Performance - Q4 revenue reached $10.27 billion, a 34% year-over-year increase, slightly lower than the 36% growth in Q3 [8] - Adjusted EPS for Q4 was $1.53, a 40% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations by nearly 16% [8][11] - Operating profit for Q4 was $2.85 billion, a 41% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations [13] Business Segments - Data center revenue hit a record $5.4 billion in Q4, a 39% year-over-year increase, significantly up from 22% growth in Q3 [16] - Client and gaming segments contributed approximately $3.9 billion in revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 37%, although this was a slowdown from 73% growth in Q3 [21] Market and Competitive Landscape - AMD's Q1 revenue guidance is set between $9.5 billion and $10.1 billion, with a midpoint of $9.8 billion, slightly above consensus expectations [3][24] - CEO Lisa Su indicated strong demand for server CPUs and projected a 60% annual growth in data center revenue over the next three to five years [3][16] Challenges and Concerns - The market is concerned about AMD's ability to maintain growth momentum, particularly in the AI accelerator segment, as any conservative guidance may lead to negative market reactions [4][24] - AMD's sales of the Instinct MI308 chip in China amounted to approximately $390 million, with U.S. export restrictions expected to impact inventory and related costs by about $440 million in 2025 [23]

分组1 - The article promotes a subscription service called Beyond the Wall Investing, which provides high-quality analysis of Wall Street buying and selling ideas [1] - Daniel Sereda is highlighted as the chief investment analyst at a family office, emphasizing his expertise in navigating vast amounts of information to extract critical investment ideas [1] - The investing group offers access to information prioritized by institutional market participants, indicating a focus on professional-grade analysis [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nestle has expanded its infant formula recall to include an additional batch of Guigoz formula following France's decision to lower the maximum threshold for cereulide toxin [1] Company Summary - The recall involves a new batch of Guigoz formula, indicating a proactive response by Nestle to regulatory changes in France [1] - The action reflects Nestle's commitment to consumer safety and adherence to updated health standards [1] Industry Summary - The decision by France to lower the maximum cereulide toxin threshold may impact the infant formula industry, prompting other companies to reassess their product safety measures [1] - Regulatory changes in food safety standards can lead to increased scrutiny and potential recalls across the industry, affecting market dynamics [1]

我真是做梦都没想到，这辈子还能看到英特尔主动跑去当小弟的事情。 就在前几天的财报会议上，谈到公司持续简化服务器产品路线图的举措时，英特尔新掌门陈立武透露："我们在与英伟达紧密合作，打造一款完全集成其 NVLink技术的定制版至强处理器，为AI主机节点带来一流的x86性能。" 消息一出，让整个科技圈都炸锅了：英特尔要和英伟达联手，开发一款专门为AI设计的定制版至强Xeon处理器？ （图源：wccftech） 掐指一算，这也是英伟达去年投资50亿美元，收购英特尔的部分股份后，双方在硬件上的第一次实质性合作。 这事儿要是放在五年前，甚至三年前，绝对是天方夜谭。 但现在，陈立武这波操作，可以说英特尔已经不准备跟英伟达硬刚谁才是AI老大了，而是退了一步说：老黄，既然大家都要买你的显卡，那不如我专门做 个CPU来配合你，咱们搭伙过日子吧。 要知道，当年那颗E3-1230 v2可是被捧上神坛的垃圾佬神U，花着不到i3的钱就能享受i7的性能。再往后，那些从国外服务器机房淘汰下来的E5处理器漂洋 过海，配合着华强北魔改的X79、X99主板，让多少预算吃紧的学生党和图吧老哥望眼欲穿。 而这次陈立武狠心找英伟达借力，肯定是希望能够 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock performance is influenced by Advanced Micro Devices' (AMD) earnings report, particularly regarding AMD's comments on sales in China [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nvidia's stock reaction indicates market sensitivity to competitor performance and commentary, especially in key markets like China [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing fluctuations based on earnings reports from major players, highlighting the interconnectedness of company performances [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $10.27 billion for Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34%, with a GAAP net profit of $1.511 billion, up 213% year-on-year [2]. - The data center business remains robust, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $5.38 billion, a 39% increase year-on-year. The company anticipates continued growth in this segment, projecting a revenue growth rate exceeding 60% over the next 3-5 years [3]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be around $9.8 billion, reflecting a 32% year-on-year increase but a 5% decrease quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to seasonal factors in consumer electronics [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Review - For Q4 2025, the company achieved a GAAP gross margin of 54% and a Non-GAAP gross margin of 57%. The Non-GAAP net profit for the same quarter was $2.519 billion, a 42% increase year-on-year [2]. Business Analysis - The company forecasts that both data center GPU and CPU revenues will grow quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by strong demand for data center CPUs. The company also expects significant revenue from the MI400 series products in the second half of 2026 [3]. - The company is optimistic about the CPU market, anticipating high double-digit growth in 2026, driven by the demand for high-performance CPUs for AI workloads [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve GAAP net profits of $7.715 billion, $10.970 billion, and $14.377 billion for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [4].

智通财经APP获悉，近日，AMD(AMD.US)召开了2025年四季度财报电话会。MI450系列开发进展非常 顺利，下半年推出并开始生产的计划正按部就班进行。客户合作持续推进顺利，与 OpenAI 的合作关系 稳固，相关产能提升计划将从下半年持续至 2027 年，目前一切按计划进行。 同时，AMD还与众多其他客户密切合作，鉴于产品优势，他们也对快速提升 MI450 用量非常感兴趣。 公司看到这在推理和训练领域都存在机会。因此，公司对 2026 年整体数据中心增长感到非常满意，并 且对于2027 年实现数百亿美元的数据中心 AI 营收也充满信心。 Q&A 问答 Q：关于 2027 年 AI 营收预期，以及 MI455 和 Helios 平台下半年的需求情况，能否谈谈客户合作进 展？ A：MI450 系列开发进展非常顺利，下半年推出并开始生产的计划正按部就班进行。客户合作持续推进 顺利，与 OpenAI 的合作关系稳固，相关产能提升计划将从下半年持续至 2027 年，目前一切按计划进 行。 同时，我们还与众多其他客户密切合作，鉴于产品优势，他们也对快速提升 MI450 用量非常感兴趣。 我们看到这在推理和训练领域 ...