Amgen (AMGN) - Amgen's stock has experienced a 4% decline over the past week, with a current rating of 72% Strong Sell according to Barchart Technical Opinion [1] - The stock has shown a 3-7-D sequence over the past 10 weeks, indicating three up weeks and seven down weeks, which is a rare quantitative signal [6] - In the fourth week of this sequence, the probability of upside success is 65.5%, significantly higher than the baseline probability of 48.8% [7] - The 50th-percentile price under the 3-7-D pathway is projected to be around $277.50, suggesting a potential bullish trade with a 275/280 bull call spread expiring on October 24 [8] Enphase Energy (ENPH) - Enphase Energy's stock has seen a short interest of approximately 20% of its float, indicating potential for a short squeeze [9] - The stock has printed a 6-4-D sequence, with six up weeks and four down weeks, resulting in an overall negative trajectory despite recent gains [10] - Under the 6-4-D pathway, the odds of upside success are higher than normal, with a recommended trade being a 37/40 bull call spread expiring on October 24, which could yield a payout of nearly 142% [12] Dutch Bros (BROS) - Dutch Bros has shown a modest gain of 1.37% since the start of the year, but its stock performance has been highly volatile [13] - The stock is rated as an 88% Strong Sell by Barchart Technical Opinion, indicating high risk [14] - Dutch Bros has also printed a 3-7-D sequence, which has historically shown a 100% upside probability in certain weeks, although this should be viewed cautiously due to the small sample size [15] - A potential trade opportunity is identified with a 55/58 bull call spread expiring on October 31, which could yield a maximum payout of nearly 161% [16]

Amgen - Amgen plans to invest $650 million to expand its U.S. manufacturing operations in Puerto Rico, creating approximately 750 jobs [2][9] - This investment is a direct response to President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical products not manufactured domestically, effective October 1 [2][9] - Since late 2017, Amgen has invested over $40 billion in U.S. manufacturing and R&D, including a $900 million expansion in Ohio and a $1 billion investment in North Carolina earlier this year [3][9] Starbucks - Starbucks is closing 434 North American stores by the end of September, reducing its store count from 18,734 to 18,300 [4][9] - The closures are part of a restructuring plan aimed at improving financial stability and customer experience, with 900 non-retail employees being laid off [5][9] - Despite the closures, Starbucks plans to increase its North American store count in the next fiscal year and redesign over 1,000 locations [5][9] China's Industrial Sector - China's industrial profits surged by 20.4% year-over-year in August, a significant recovery from a -1.5% decline in July [6][9] - The cumulative industrial profit for January-August increased by 0.9% to ¥4.69 trillion, indicating potential stabilization in the manufacturing sector [6][7][9] JPMorgan and Alibaba - JPMorgan Chase increased its stake in Alibaba from 6.81% to 12.29% on September 22, signaling bullish sentiment towards the tech sector [8][10] - This move reflects growing confidence in Alibaba and the broader tech sector, driven by global AI developments and increasing domestic computing power demands [11]

Market Overview - Wall Street is on track to end the week higher, with the Dow up approximately 360 points, S&P 500 up about 0.6%, and NASDAQ up about 0.4% [2][3] - The Dow is up 0.8% for the day, while the NASDAQ is down about 0.67% for the week, marking the worst performance since August 1st [3][4] - The 10-year Treasury yield has increased by one basis point, indicating a trend of rising yields since Wednesday [5] Inflation and Federal Reserve Insights - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for August is reported at 2.9%, consistent with July's figures, suggesting inflation is stable but not accelerating [11][12] - Federal Reserve officials express concerns about persistent inflation, with some suggesting that productivity gains from AI could mitigate inflationary pressures [13][14] - The next jobs report is anticipated to be crucial for the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates, especially if it indicates a soft job market [14][16] Tariff Implications - President Trump's new tariff threats, including a 50% duty on certain pharmaceuticals and furniture, are causing concern in the affected industries, particularly in the furniture sector [17][18] - Companies like Wayfair and RH are adapting by diversifying their supply chains away from China, while pharmaceutical companies with U.S. manufacturing facilities are less affected by the tariffs [19][20] - The impact of these tariffs on inflation and economic growth is expected to vary by industry, with some sectors facing more significant challenges than others [22][23] Digital Asset Treasuries - Over 180 public companies have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets, indicating a growing trend in digital asset treasuries [74] - Breer Holdings is rebranding as Soulmate, focusing on a Solana-based digital asset treasury, highlighting the shift towards blockchain technologies that can handle high transaction volumes [75][87] - The emergence of digital asset treasuries is seen as a response to previous regulatory challenges and market inefficiencies, with a focus on building actual infrastructure to support these assets [91][92] Weight Loss Drug Market - The GLP-1 weight loss drug market is projected to potentially reach $100 billion annually within the next decade, driven by innovations and expanded indications beyond obesity [106][108] - Current injectable GLP-1 drugs show weight loss efficacy between 12% to 20%, with oral formulations expected to be slightly less effective [110][111] - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk dominate the market, but Amgen is also making strides with late-stage trials for its weight loss drug [105][116]

BREAKING: Inflation Data Cements Rate Cut Expectations President Donald Trump delivered the pharmaceutical industry another blow this week, threatening 100% tariffs on companies who don't have a manufacturing presence in the U.S. In a post on social media platform Truth Social, Trump said the administration will impose a 100% tariff starting Oct. 1 "on any branded or patented Pharmaceutical Product, unless a Company IS BUILDING their Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Plant in America." The post adds to the fast- ...

Core Insights - President Donald Trump imposed 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with exemptions for companies that build manufacturing plants in the U.S. [2] - Eli Lilly and Amgen announced new investments in the U.S. shortly after the tariff announcement [2] Company Actions - Eli Lilly is opening a new manufacturing facility in the U.S. as part of its investment strategy [2] - Amgen is also making significant investments in domestic manufacturing in response to the tariff policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's announcement of a potential 100% tariff on pharmaceutical products not manufactured in the U.S. has significant implications for the pharmaceutical industry, creating uncertainty and prompting companies to increase domestic manufacturing investments [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on branded or patented pharmaceutical products starting October 1 unless companies establish manufacturing plants in the U.S. [1] - Following the announcement, pharmaceutical stocks remained stable, with the SPDR S&P Pharmaceutical ETF (XPH) rising by 1.6% and the VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH) increasing by 0.6% [3]. - Analysts suggest that larger biopharmaceutical companies may not be significantly affected due to ongoing U.S. facility construction, but smaller companies could face exposure [2]. Group 2: Company Responses and Investments - Pharmaceutical companies have announced over $350 million in U.S. manufacturing investments, with Amgen committing to expand its U.S. manufacturing by $650 million following the tariff threat [4]. - Amgen's CEO emphasized the importance of increasing capacity to deliver innovative medicines and creating high-quality jobs in biotechnology [5]. - Companies like Argenx, AbbVie, and Novartis highlighted their U.S. manufacturing capabilities during recent earnings calls, indicating a strong domestic presence [6]. Group 3: Broader Implications and Investigations - The tariff threat may serve as a negotiating tactic related to the ongoing Section 232 investigation into the impact of imports on national security [7]. - A separate Section 232 investigation into medical devices was announced, causing a nearly 2% decline in the medical-products industry group [8]. - Analysts predict that the medical device investigation may lead to additional tariffs, similar to the pharmaceutical tariffs, but the timing remains uncertain [9][10].

Group 1 - Amgen Inc. is recognized as one of the best value stocks in Goldman Sachs' portfolio, with a Buy rating maintained by Piper Sandler analyst David Amsellem and a price target of $342 [1] - The upcoming FORTITUDE-102 study results, which combine bemarituzumab with chemotherapy and Opdivo, are crucial for Amgen's market potential, as highlighted by William Blair analyst Matt Phipps [2] - Amgen's pipeline strength is exemplified by the recommendation for approval of Tezspire (tezepelumab) in the EU, developed in collaboration with AstraZeneca for treating chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, affecting approximately 320 million people globally [3] Group 2 - In the collaboration agreement for Tezspire, AstraZeneca leads development while Amgen is responsible for manufacturing, with costs and profits shared equally after AstraZeneca pays a mid-single-digit inventor royalty to Amgen [4] - Amgen focuses on discovering, developing, and manufacturing innovative therapies in oncology, cardiovascular disease, inflammation, and rare diseases [4]

Core Points - Amgen announced a $650 million expansion of its U.S. manufacturing network, which is expected to create nearly 750 jobs [2][3] - The investment will enhance drug production at the biologics manufacturing facility in Juncos, Puerto Rico, and integrate advanced technologies [2] - This expansion reflects Amgen's commitment to U.S. biomanufacturing and aims to strengthen the global supply chain [2] Investment and Job Creation - The planned investment will create hundreds of new jobs, including construction and highly skilled manufacturing roles [2] - Amgen's total investment in manufacturing and R&D since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 exceeds $40 billion [2] Regional Impact - The expansion is expected to bolster U.S. supply chain security through reshoring and enhance Puerto Rico's position as a biopharmaceutical hub [2] - Puerto Rico has over 60 years of expertise in the biopharmaceutical sector, supported by a skilled workforce and infrastructure [2] Recent Investments - This announcement follows Amgen's recent investments, including a $600 million science and innovation center in California and $900 million in Ohio [3] - Additionally, Amgen has made a $1 billion investment in North Carolina for manufacturing expansions [3] Company Overview - Amgen is a leader in biotechnology, focusing on innovative medicines for serious diseases, with a strong pipeline for cancer, heart disease, and rare diseases [4] - The company has been recognized as one of the "World's Most Innovative Companies" and is part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq-100 Index [5]

Group 1 - Amgen Inc. is recognized as one of the 11 cheap quarterly dividend stocks to buy currently [1] - The company has a strong and diverse portfolio with over two dozen brands, including several blockbuster drugs generating over $1 billion in annual sales [2] - Amgen's medicines cover multiple therapeutic areas, including heart health, bone health, and psoriasis treatment [3] Group 2 - In the second quarter, Amgen reported revenue of $9.2 billion, reflecting a 9% increase from the previous year, while adjusted earnings per share rose 21% to $6.02 [4] - The company has demonstrated consistent dividend growth for 14 consecutive years, currently offering a quarterly dividend of $2.38 per share and a dividend yield of 3.32% as of September 23 [4]

Core Insights - Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) has experienced lackluster performance over the past two years, with a total return of only 13% since coverage was initiated in August 2023 [2]. Company Performance - The stock of Amgen has shown minimal growth, indicating potential challenges in its market performance [2]. Investment Focus - The Growth Stock Forum emphasizes identifying attractive risk/reward situations, particularly in the biotech sector, and closely tracks portfolio and watchlist stocks [1].