Core Insights - Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) and Amgen (AMGN) are leading global biotechnology companies with diverse portfolios focused on various therapeutic areas [1][2] - Both companies have established strong market positions and consistently delivered shareholder value, making stock selection challenging [3] BMY Overview - BMY's growth portfolio includes drugs such as Opdivo, Reblozyl, and Breyanzi, contributing to strong top-line growth [4][10] - Opdivo sales are driven by its launch in MSI-high colorectal cancer and growth in non-small cell lung cancer, with global sales expected to increase in the high single-digit to low double-digit range by 2025 [5][6] - Reblozyl has annualized sales exceeding $2 billion, significantly boosting BMY's revenue, while Breyanzi sales are also strong, annualizing over $1 billion [7][8] - BMY's legacy portfolio is facing challenges due to generic competition, with expected declines of 15-17% in 2025 [11][12] AMGN Overview - Amgen has a vast portfolio with strong positions in oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare diseases, supported by growth products like Repatha and Tezspire [13][14] - Despite competitive pressures affecting some products, Amgen's growth trajectory is driven by key drugs and a robust pipeline [15] - The acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics has expanded Amgen's rare disease offerings, enhancing its market position [16] Financial Estimates - BMY's 2025 sales are estimated to decrease by 0.8%, while EPS is expected to increase by 466.09% [17] - AMGN's 2025 sales are projected to grow by 8.78%, with EPS improving by 7.26% [20] Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, BMY has outperformed AMGN slightly, with gains of 13.9% compared to AMGN's 13.5% [21] - In terms of valuation, AMGN trades at a higher forward P/E of 15.2X compared to BMY's 8.99X, indicating a more expensive valuation [21] - BMY offers a higher dividend yield of 4.54% compared to AMGN's 2.86% [22] Investment Considerations - Both companies are considered safe investments in the biotech sector, but AMGN is currently viewed as a better pick due to solid fundamentals and positive estimate revisions [23][25]

Core Insights - Amgen is developing MariTide, a late-stage obesity candidate, to compete with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 therapy market [1] - MariTide's long-acting profile allows for monthly or less frequent dosing, potentially improving patient adherence compared to weekly injectable options [2] - The drug is being evaluated in pivotal studies for obesity and other cardiometabolic conditions, with strong enrollment interest [3][4] Group 1: Product Development and Market Position - MariTide is part of Amgen's MARITIME phase III program, focusing on obesity and related cardiometabolic indications [1][3] - The drug has shown predictable and sustained weight loss in earlier studies, positioning it as a convenient long-term treatment option [2] - Enrollment for MARITIME-1 and MARITIME-2 studies has been completed with approximately 5,000 patients participating [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Novo Nordisk has received FDA approval for an oral version of Wegovy, enhancing competition in the obesity treatment market [5] - Eli Lilly is also advancing its oral obesity candidate, orforglipron, with a potential launch next year [6] - Both market leaders continue to invest in next-generation therapies, indicating a robust competitive environment [7][8] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Amgen's shares have outperformed the industry year to date, reflecting positive market sentiment [9] - The company is trading at a P/E ratio of 15.20, which is below the industry average of 17.56, indicating a potential valuation opportunity [12] - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have increased in the past 60 days, suggesting positive growth expectations [14]

Industry Overview - Drug pricing has become a significant pressure point for pharmaceutical companies in the U.S. as efforts to reduce consumer costs at pharmacies intensify [1] - The U.S. is the largest single market for drugmakers, with prices often nearly three times higher than in other developed countries, leading to a heavy reliance on American sales for revenue [2] - The Most Favored Nations pricing model proposed by Donald Trump aims to tie U.S. drug prices to the lowest levels paid by other wealthy countries, which could have a substantial impact on pharmaceutical companies' financials if widely implemented [3][4] Market Performance - The S&P 500 Health Care sector has increased by over 13% this year, with health-care companies leading in earnings beats during the third quarter of 2025, marking the strongest performance in over four years [5] - Analysts suggest that as drug pricing uncertainty begins to ease, attention will shift to how pharmaceutical companies adapt to the changing landscape [5] Company Highlights Viatris Inc. (NASDAQ:VTRS) - Viatris has a dividend yield of 3.87% and is among the best dividend stocks in the pharmaceutical sector [11] - Barclays initiated coverage of Viatris with an Overweight rating and a $15 price target, noting improving investor sentiment and easing pricing pressure [12] - Viatris announced a deal to sell its equity stake in Biocon Biologics for $815 million, which includes $400 million in cash and $415 million in equity shares, aimed at enhancing its portfolio and market access [13] Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) - Gilead has a dividend yield of 2.54% and is recognized as a strong dividend stock [15] - The company entered a three-year agreement with the U.S. government to lower drug costs, reinforcing its commitment to U.S. innovation and affordability [16] - Gilead plans to invest $32 billion in U.S.-based manufacturing and R&D over the next five years, expecting to generate $43 billion in economic value and create over 3,000 jobs [17] Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) - Amgen has a dividend yield of 3.05% and has outperformed the broader market, with its stock up more than 27% since the start of 2025 [19] - The company reported a 12% revenue increase to $9.6 billion in the third quarter, driven by strong sales of key products like Repatha and Tezspire, both up 40% year-over-year [20] - Amgen has consistently raised its dividend since 2011, with a forward yield of about 3%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 1.2% [22]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Biopharma in North America - **Market Analysis**: The latest weekly Total Prescription (TRx) year-over-year (YoY) growth for the week ending December 19, 2025, was +1.1%, compared to +1.0% the previous week and +0.8% over the past 12 weeks [1][2] Prescription Trends - **Weekly TRx Change**: For the week ended December 19, the US total market weekly TRx YoY change was +1.1%, up from +0.9% a year ago. The rolling 4-week TRx YoY was +1.2%, and the rolling 12-week TRx YoY was +0.8% [2] - **Extended Unit (EUTRx) Growth**: EUTRx weekly YoY growth was +1.4%, which is above the TRx YoY growth [2] - **Sequential Growth**: Sequential weekly TRx growth was +2.3%, a significant increase compared to -1.4% the week before [2] Company-Specific Insights Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) - **Cobenfy Launch**: Cobenfy was approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024. The number of prescriptions (scripts) for the week was approximately 2,800, up from 2,710 the previous week. To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy TRx needs to track at approximately 2-3 times the volumes from recent schizophrenia launches [3] - **Sales Estimates**: The consensus estimate for Cobenfy has decreased from $196 million to $161 million, implying that around 104,000 TRx are required to meet these estimates [3] Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) - **Journavx Launch**: Journavx was approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025. The number of scripts for the week was approximately 13,060, up from 12,570 the previous week. Hospital scripts accounted for about 39% of total scripts in Q3 [4] - **Sales Projections**: To achieve 2025 sales of $68 million, approximately 303,000 total scripts are needed, assuming a net price of $225 per script [4] Gilead Sciences (GILD) - **Yeztugo Launch**: Yeztugo was approved on June 18, 2025. The latest week total TRx was approximately 780, down from 800 the previous week. The analysis suggests that achieving FY25 sales of $150 million requires incremental weekly script growth from current levels [5][9] - **Market Coverage**: Yeztugo has secured 75% commercial coverage, including major payers, and most do not require copays, indicating alignment with USPSTF guidelines [9] Additional Insights - **Market Focus**: Investors are increasingly focused on 2026, with strong PrEP market growth of +14% YoY and sustained Descovy share of over 45% [9] - **Pricing Analysis**: The pricing analysis for immunology drugs such as Stelara and Tremfya has been updated, showing how additional indications impact price per script [10] - **Biosimilar Adoption**: Comprehensive analysis of biosimilar adoption across various branded drugs has been included, indicating trends in market share and sales [12] Conclusion - The biopharma industry in North America is showing positive growth trends in total prescriptions, with specific companies like BMY, VRTX, and GILD launching new products and adjusting sales expectations. The focus on 2026 and the strong market coverage for new drugs indicate potential investment opportunities in this sector.

Core Insights - Allka Research has over two decades of experience in investment, focusing on uncovering undervalued assets in ETFs, commodities, technology, and pharmaceutical sectors [1] - The company adopts a conservative investment approach, aiming to deliver substantial returns and strategic insights to clients [1] - Allka Research is committed to simplifying investment strategies, making them accessible for both seasoned and novice investors [1] Company Mission - The mission of Allka Research is to empower individuals financially by sharing knowledge and insights through the Seeking Alpha platform [1] - The company aims to provide thought-provoking analyses and informed perspectives to foster a community of informed investors [1] - Allka Research seeks to demystify investing, inspiring confidence in readers to navigate the financial markets intelligently [1]

Core Insights - Allka Research has over two decades of experience in investment, focusing on uncovering undervalued assets in ETFs, commodities, technology, and pharmaceutical sectors [1] - The company adopts a conservative investment approach, aiming to deliver substantial returns and strategic insights to clients [1] - Allka Research is committed to simplifying investment strategies, making them accessible to both seasoned and novice investors [1] Mission and Community Engagement - The company seeks to empower individuals financially by sharing its knowledge through Seeking Alpha, contributing analyses and informed perspectives [1] - Allka Research aims to demystify investing, fostering a community of informed investors capable of navigating the markets intelligently [1] - The organization encourages readers to join in the journey of discovery and wealth creation within the financial world [1]

Core Insights - Amgen (AMGN) has signed a significant agreement with the Trump administration to reduce drug prices in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Drug Pricing and Discounts - The agreement addresses major concerns in the pharmaceutical industry regarding drug pricing and tariffs, aligning Amgen's drug prices with those in other developed countries [2] - Amgen's direct-to-consumer (DTC) program, AmgenNow, offers substantial discounts, starting with its cholesterol-lowering drug Repatha at $239 per month, which is nearly a 60% discount from its U.S. list price [3] - The DTC program will also include migraine drug Aimovig and Humira biosimilar Amjevita, priced at $299 per month, reflecting discounts of 60% and 80% respectively [3] Group 2: Financial Terms and Investments - While specific financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed, it is expected to include a three-year exemption from import tariffs on pharmaceutical ingredients, contingent on increasing domestic manufacturing capacity [4] - Amgen plans to invest an additional $2.5 billion in U.S. production and research, which includes a $600 million science and innovation center in California, a $900 million manufacturing expansion in Ohio, and a $1 billion facility in North Carolina [4] Group 3: Industry Collaboration - Amgen is part of a broader trend, with eight other large-cap drugmakers, including Bristol Myers, GSK, and Merck, also entering similar agreements with the administration [5] - Some companies have committed to donating active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) to a government stockpile to enhance supply chain resilience during emergencies [6] - The Trump administration has now reached agreements with 14 out of 17 large drug manufacturers called to lower prices, improving investor sentiment towards the pharmaceutical sector [7] Group 4: Valuation and Performance - Amgen's shares have outperformed the industry year to date, trading at a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.34, which is below the industry average of 17.48 [8][11] - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have increased over the past 60 days, indicating positive market expectations [12]

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Amgen (AMGN) are both large-cap healthcare leaders with strong balance sheets and a history of successful drug development, making them attractive investments in the healthcare sector [2] - NVO leads in the GLP-1 market with its semaglutide products, while AMGN has a diversified portfolio across multiple therapeutic areas [3][4] - NVO's focus on diabetes and obesity treatments offers concentrated growth potential, whereas AMGN's diversification supports consistent cash flow [4] Novo Nordisk (NVO) Overview - NVO holds a 59% global market share in the GLP-1 space as of September 2025, driven by its semaglutide products [6] - The company is expanding its manufacturing capacity to strengthen its market leadership in diabetes and obesity care [7] - NVO is pursuing new indications for its semaglutide drugs, including cardiovascular (CV) and other conditions, with recent FDA approvals enhancing its growth prospects [8][9] - NVO is advancing its next-generation obesity pipeline, including CagriSema and amycretin, which are expected to enter later stages of development [10] - The company is also building its Rare Disease franchise with approvals for treatments in hemophilia A and B [11] - NVO has faced challenges, including weaker-than-expected sales and increased competition, leading to downward revisions in its 2025 guidance [13] Amgen (AMGN) Overview - AMGN's diverse portfolio includes key medicines like Evenity, Repatha, and newer drugs such as Tavneos, which are driving sales growth [14] - The acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics has expanded AMGN's rare disease business significantly [15] - AMGN's key pipeline candidate, MariTide, is being evaluated for obesity with a focus on less frequent dosing to improve patient adherence [16][17] - The company has a strong biosimilars portfolio and is developing biosimilars for major oncology drugs [19] - Despite facing pricing pressures and competition, AMGN's fundamentals are improving, with upward trends in earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 [20][21] Comparative Analysis - NVO's shares have declined by 32% over the past six months, while AMGN's shares have increased by 19.6%, reflecting differing investor sentiments [26] - NVO currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), while AMGN has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a preference for AMGN among investors [28] - From a valuation perspective, NVO trades at a lower price/earnings ratio of 13.53 compared to AMGN's 15.33, suggesting that AMGN may be viewed as a more stable investment option [29]

Industry Overview - The drug and biotech sector has shown recovery after a weak first half, with large drugmakers signing pricing agreements with the Trump administration [1] - Dealmaking activity surged in the second half, boosting investor confidence, with the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry outperforming the S&P 500 in the past three months [1][4] - Innovation is at its peak, particularly in areas like obesity, cell and gene therapy, and next-gen oncology treatments, attracting investor attention [2] - Despite headwinds such as pipeline setbacks and regulatory risks, the outlook for growth in 2026 remains favorable due to rapid innovation and increased use of AI in drug development [2] Eli Lilly - Eli Lilly has achieved significant success with its tirzepatide medicines, including diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine Zepbound, which are key revenue drivers [6][7] - Strong sales growth in 2025 is attributed to international market launches and improved production, with continued demand expected in 2026 [7] - Lilly is investing in obesity treatments with new molecules in clinical development, including orforglipron and retatrutide, with regulatory applications filed for orforglipron [8][9] - Despite challenges like declining product prices and competition in the GLP-1 market, Lilly's stock has risen 39.3% year to date, with 2026 earnings estimates improving from $30.78 to $33.61 per share [10] Johnson & Johnson - J&J has shown strong operational performance in 2025, with double-digit revenue growth from key brands despite the loss of exclusivity for Stelara [11] - The Innovative Medicine segment is expected to accelerate growth in 2026, driven by key products and new launches [12] - J&J's MedTech business has improved, with growth driven by acquired cardiovascular businesses and new product launches expected to contribute to 2026 growth [13][14] - The company has advanced its pipeline significantly and is on an acquisition spree, with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and a stock rise of 43.3% year to date [17] AbbVie - AbbVie faces declining sales from Humira due to loss of exclusivity but has successfully launched new immunology medicines Skyrizi and Rinvoq, generating combined sales of $18.5 billion in the first nine months of 2025 [18][19] - Strong market growth and new indications for these drugs are expected to drive future growth, alongside contributions from newer drugs [20] - AbbVie anticipates a high single-digit CAGR through 2029, supported by robust performance from Skyrizi and Rinvoq, with a Zacks Rank of 3 and a stock rise of 28.2% year to date [21][22] Amgen - Amgen's revenue growth is driven by key medicines like Repatha and new biosimilars, compensating for declines from mature drugs [23][24] - The company is focusing on obesity treatments with its candidate MariTide, which differentiates itself with a convenient dosing method [24] - Amgen's stock has risen 27.3% year to date, with 2026 earnings estimates increasing from $21.43 to $21.62 per share [25] AstraZeneca - AstraZeneca has several blockbuster drugs exceeding $1 billion in sales, with newer products contributing to growth despite losses from mature brands [26][27] - The company expects to achieve industry-leading top-line growth through 2030, with plans to launch 20 new medicines and generate $80 billion in total revenues [28] - AstraZeneca faces challenges such as competition and regulatory impacts but maintains a stable earnings estimate of $5.15 per share for 2026, with a stock rise of 10.7% year to date [29][30]

Core Insights - The Trump administration has signed drug-pricing agreements with several large-cap drugmakers to lower drug prices in the U.S. [1] - The agreements require drugmakers to reduce prescription drug prices to match those in comparable developed countries, supporting the Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing proposal [2] - Drugmakers will receive a three-year exemption from import tariffs on pharmaceutical ingredients in exchange for expanding domestic manufacturing operations [3] - Some companies will donate active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) to a government stockpile to ensure supply chain resilience during emergencies [4] - The Trump administration has now reached deals with 14 out of 17 targeted drug manufacturers, with three companies still in discussions [5] Industry Impact - The agreements address major concerns regarding drug pricing and tariffs, improving investor outlook for the pharmaceutical sector [6] - The deals are seen as a turning point that could alleviate regulatory and pricing pressures on the industry [7] - The latest agreements involve nine major drugmakers, joining others like Pfizer and AstraZeneca who signed similar deals earlier [8]