Core View - AI stocks are expected to continue advancing, driven by ongoing investments in infrastructure by cloud service providers and increasing revenues from AI companies [1] Group 1: AI Stock Predictions - Gains in AI stocks may not be as widespread in 2026, with potential winners and losers emerging, but the overall investment theme remains strong [2] Group 2: Top AI Stocks - **Nvidia**: Leading seller of AI chips, with a focus on innovation and strong demand for new products, well-positioned for future growth [3][5] - **Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC)**: Benefits from manufacturing chips for multiple AI leaders, indicating strong demand for AI chips and a positive outlook [6][8] - **Amazon**: A solid investment with established e-commerce and cloud computing businesses, leveraging AI for efficiency and achieving a $132 billion annual revenue run rate in AWS [9][10][12] - **Alphabet**: A stable option for AI growth, with significant revenue from advertising and cloud services, recently achieving $100 billion in revenue [13][14][15] - **CoreWeave**: A riskier investment focused on providing GPU capacity for AI workloads, with potential for significant growth if AI demand continues [16][17][18]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is underestimating the growth potential of Nvidia's Rubin architecture, which is expected to drive significant advancements in AI and related fields [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nvidia has gained 38.9% in 2025, outperforming Amazon, which only gained 5.2% and was the worst performer among the "Magnificent Seven" stocks [2] - Nvidia's data center sales account for approximately 90% of its total revenue, with the remaining 10% coming from high-margin sectors such as gaming and robotics [5] - Nvidia's gross margin stands at 70.05%, indicating strong profitability [8] Group 2: Amazon's Business Model - Amazon's operating margin for its non-AWS business is only 4.1%, while AWS contributes 60% of Amazon's operating income despite being less than one-fifth of total sales [3][4] - AWS has high operating margins of 35.6%, but its growth has slowed due to increased competition from Microsoft, Google Cloud, and Oracle [4] Group 3: Future Growth Potential - Nvidia's new Rubin architecture, which includes six different chips, is designed for advancements in agentic AI, robotics, and autonomous driving, with deployments expected in the second half of 2026 [6][7] - Nvidia's innovation allows it to maintain high margins and continue growing earnings rapidly, suggesting strong future performance [7] - The potential for new revenue streams from the Rubin architecture could further enhance Nvidia's growth prospects [5] Group 4: Valuation Comparison - Nvidia is considered a better long-term investment compared to Amazon, despite Amazon's recent affordability due to faster earnings growth [8][10] - Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings ratio is 39, compared to Amazon's 30.1, justifying a higher valuation for Nvidia based on its growth potential [8][10] - Overall, Nvidia is viewed as the better buy for 2026, although Amazon is becoming more attractive as a value investment [11]

Core Insights - The U.S. retail sales report for November shows a month-over-month increase of 0.6% and a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, indicating strong consumer spending trends [1] Winners - Nonstore retailers, including e-commerce giant Amazon, experienced a sales increase of 7.2% in November, suggesting continued positive momentum for the company [2] - Amazon's growth is further supported by its expanding sponsored ad business, operational efficiencies from robotics and AI, and accelerating growth in its cloud computing unit, AWS [4] - Sporting goods stores saw a notable sales increase of 7.8%, with Nike showing signs of a turnaround, bolstered by significant insider buying from CEO Elliot Hill and Apple CEO Tim Cook [5][7] - Dick's Sporting Goods is also positioned as a potential winner, focusing on experiential retail to attract customers while managing its recent acquisition of Foot Locker [8] - E.l.f. Beauty benefited from a 6.7% year-over-year sales increase in health and personal care stores, supported by its market share growth and the acquisition of Rhode [9][10] - The food services and drinking places category saw a 4.9% sales increase, which is expected to benefit restaurant software provider Toast as it expands its customer base [11] Losers - Furniture stores and building material and garden supply dealers faced negative sales growth, with declines of 1.4% and 2.8%, respectively, impacting companies like RH, which is navigating a challenging market [12] - Home improvement retailers Home Depot and Lowe's have struggled with same-store sales growth, although both have had strong starts in 2026 [14]

Core Viewpoint - A U.S. bankruptcy judge has dismissed Amazon's attempt to block a $400 million financing deal for Saks Global Enterprises during its Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings [1]. Group 1: Bankruptcy Proceedings - Saks is seeking $1.75 billion to continue operations and will require further approvals from the U.S. District & Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas [2]. - Saks filed for bankruptcy with $3.4 billion in debt, citing cash shortfalls after its merger with Neiman Marcus, which hindered its ability to restock inventory [6]. Group 2: Amazon's Involvement - Amazon's investment in Saks, amounting to $475 million as part of a $2.7 billion acquisition of Neiman Marcus, is now considered presumptively worthless due to Saks' financial mismanagement [4]. - Amazon has expressed concerns over Saks' financial management, stating that the retailer has "burned through hundreds of millions of dollars in less than a year" and failed to meet their agreement [3]. Group 3: Financial Challenges - Saks is facing a "luxury liquidity crisis," with lenders debating whether to inject more capital to sustain the luxury department store amid ongoing financial difficulties [5]. - The company has struggled with payments and has requested suppliers to extend past-due bills, surprising many in the luxury retail sector [5].

Core Insights - The global e-commerce landscape is rapidly evolving, with cross-border e-commerce significantly altering international trade dynamics, presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses and consumers [1] Group 1: Policy Environment - The policy environment is a crucial external factor affecting cross-border e-commerce, with varying regulations across countries creating both challenges and opportunities for enterprises [3] - In Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, 63% of consumers prefer purchasing New Year goods through e-commerce platforms, highlighting the market's growth potential [4] - Amazon has upgraded compliance requirements, increasing the on-time delivery compliance rate to 95%, which raises expectations for supplier efficiency [5][6] Group 2: Market Trends - The U.S. has become the largest online market for Korean cosmetics, holding a 51% global share, indicating a significant opportunity for cross-border e-commerce businesses to enhance procurement and marketing strategies [7] - eBay UK has adjusted customer service channels, which may impact consumer communication with the platform, while also launching a climate transition plan aiming for net-zero emissions by 2045 [7] Group 3: Logistics Challenges - Logistics remains a critical aspect of cross-border e-commerce, with long distances and multiple stages leading to high costs and delays, particularly during special circumstances like the pandemic [15] - Companies are exploring new logistics models, such as overseas warehouses, to improve delivery times and customer satisfaction [15] Group 4: Technological Innovation - Technological advancements, including AI, big data, and blockchain, are transforming cross-border e-commerce operations, enhancing customer service and operational efficiency [17][19] - AI technologies are increasingly used for smart customer service and personalized shopping experiences, while big data helps businesses understand consumer needs and market trends [17][19]

Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market had a positive performance in 2025, with the S&P 500 up more than 16%, the Nasdaq Composite up over 20%, and the Dow Jones Industrials up close to 13% [1] - The "Magnificent Seven" stocks, driven by the AI boom, performed well, although Amazon underperformed with a 5% increase, the lowest among these stocks [2] Group 2: Amazon's E-commerce Efficiency - Amazon's e-commerce business has become more efficient, historically generating significant revenue, often exceeding that of many S&P 500 companies in a fiscal year [4] - The company has invested heavily in robotics and automation, which has allowed it to cut costs and increase efficiency, projecting savings of up to $4 billion with nearly 40 robotic fulfillment centers by year-end [6] Group 3: Amazon's Business Segments - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is crucial to the company's overall business, accounting for about 18% of total revenue ($33 billion) but over 65% of total operating income ($11.4 billion) in Q3 [7] - The advertising business is Amazon's fastest-growing segment, expected to outpace AWS, with a year-over-year growth of 24% [8][9]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.4% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.7%[1] - Small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value) outperformed with a gain of 2.2%, followed by small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth) at 1.9%[1] - Among 10 sectors, 6 sectors saw gains, with Food & Staples Retailing up 4.6% and Capital Goods up 4.4%[1] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components was -$1.7 billion this week, down from +$130.2 million last week[2] - Semiconductor products and equipment saw a significant inflow of $37.6 million, while Software & Services experienced an outflow of $32.7 million[2] Earnings Forecast - The 12-month forward EPS estimate for S&P 500 components was revised up by 0.3% this week, consistent with last week[3] - The automotive sector led with an EPS increase of 1.3%, while the energy sector saw a decrease of 2.1%[3] Risk Factors - Key risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policies, and Federal Reserve monetary policies[3]

Core Viewpoint - Big Tech companies are investing heavily in AI data center infrastructure, but are now facing significant challenges due to federal intervention and public concerns over rising electricity costs [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Big Tech companies have spent record-breaking amounts on building data centers to support AI development [1]. - The competition in the AI sector is driving hyperscalers like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Google, and Amazon to expand their data center infrastructure [2]. Group 2: Challenges Faced - Ordinary Americans are increasingly frustrated with the rising cost of electricity, which poses a challenge for Big Tech companies [2]. - The current political climate, with a president focused on affordability, adds pressure on these companies as they prepare for the upcoming midterm elections [2].

Group 1: Amazon - Amazon constitutes 8.73% of Bill Ackman's portfolio and is considered a strong long-term investment due to its diverse operations in e-commerce, cloud computing, AI, and digital advertising [2][5] - The company is working to improve its e-commerce margins by utilizing industrial robots to reduce fulfillment costs, which is expected to lead to lower costs and higher profits over the next decade [3] - Amazon's cloud division remains a core growth engine, with a significant addressable market as 85% of IT spending still occurs on-premises, indicating room for growth [5][6] Group 2: Alphabet - Alphabet makes up 10.52% of Ackman's portfolio and is a strong long-term investment, maintaining its dominance in the search engine market despite the rise of AI chatbots [7] - The company's digital advertising business is thriving, and its cloud division is experiencing rapid sales growth, with a cloud backlog of $155 billion, reflecting a 46% quarter-over-quarter increase [9][10] - Alphabet's investments in AI are enhancing user engagement and query growth, further solidifying its market position [7][10] Group 3: Uber Technologies - Uber is the largest holding in Ackman's portfolio, representing 20.25%, and is seen as a justified investment due to its strong financial performance and user growth [11][12] - The company benefits from network effects, with a growing customer base strengthening its competitive advantage [14] - Uber has significant growth potential as younger generations are driving less and may rely more on ride-hailing services, with only about 10% of adults in its top markets using the platform monthly [15][17]

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is among the stocks with the best earnings growth for the next 5 years. On January 15, Raymond James cut the price target on Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) to $260 from $275 and kept an ‘Outperform’ rating. As the analyst noted in a research note, the outlook for Q4 looks bright, given a solid holiday trend, strong ad checks, and an AWS beat, despite AI being the key driver of stock performance in the upcoming year. Raymond James remains confident about the AWS cloud divisi ...