Group 1 - The primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to achieve an overall yield in the range of 7% - 10% by combining various income streams for a steady portfolio payout [1] - ASML Holding N.V. reported its first quarter earnings, beating profit estimates, yet shares sold off due to prior price reductions [1] - The portfolio's price may fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent, indicating a focus on stability in income generation [1] Group 2 - Jonathan Weber has been active in the stock market and as a freelance analyst, focusing primarily on value and income stocks since 2014 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy focuses on fundamental, bottom-up analysis with an emphasis on long-term quality growth, targeting companies in niche markets with strong growth potential and reasonable valuations [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment style is characterized by a fundamental approach, prioritizing quality growth-oriented companies [1]. - The portfolio is constructed with 15-20 stocks, emphasizing diversification, risk management, and macro-driven sector weights [1]. - The target annual return for the portfolio is set at 15% [1]. Group 2: Company Characteristics - The ideal companies are those with strong management teams, sound capital allocation policies, and reasonable valuations [1]. - There is a specific focus on companies that do not chase quarterly results or follow herd mentality [1].

Financial Performance & Outlook - Q1 2025 total net sales reached €7.7 billion[1], with net income at €2.4 billion[1] - Net system sales in Q1 2025 were €5.7 billion[8], while Installed Base Management sales amounted to €2.0 billion[8] - The company anticipates total net sales between €30 billion and €35 billion for the full year 2025[1, 25] - Q2 2025 total net sales are projected to be between €7.2 billion and €7.7 billion, including around €2.0 billion from Installed Base Management[23] - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 54.0%[8], with an expected range of 51% to 53% for the full year 2025[25] Bookings & Shareholder Returns - Net bookings for Q1 2025 totaled €3.9 billion, including €1.2 billion from EUV bookings[8] - The company intends to declare a total dividend of €6.40 per ordinary share for the year 2024[21] - In Q1 2025, approximately 4.0 million shares were purchased for around €2.7 billion[21] Industry Trends & Strategy - The semiconductor industry is expected to surpass $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, driven by AI adoption[6] - The company sees an opportunity to achieve 2030 annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion with a gross margin between approximately 56% and 60%[6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net sales for Q1 2025 were EUR7.7 billion, in line with guidance [8] - Net system sales were EUR5.7 billion, comprising EUR3.2 billion from EUV sales and EUR2.5 billion from non-EUV sales [8] - Gross margin for the quarter was above guidance at 54%, driven by customer productivity milestones on installed EUV systems [9] - Net income in Q1 was EUR2.4 billion, representing 30.4% of total net sales, resulting in earnings per share of EUR6 [10] - Free cash flow for Q1 was negative EUR475 million due to customer payment dynamics and investments in fixed assets [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net system bookings in Q1 were EUR3.9 billion, with EUV bookings at EUR1.2 billion and non-EUV at EUR2.8 billion [11] - Installed Base Management sales for the quarter were EUR2.0 billion [8] - Logic accounted for 58% of net system sales, while Memory accounted for 42% [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from Logic is expected to increase compared to 2024, with strong Memory revenue anticipated to remain similar to 2024 [15] - Installed Base Management revenue is expected to grow compared to 2024, driven by increasing service levels and contributions from EUV [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The growth in Artificial Intelligence is identified as a key driver for growth in the industry [14] - The company expects revenue for 2025 to be between EUR30 billion and EUR35 billion, with 2026 also anticipated to be a growth year [17] - The company is focusing on achieving milestones in both Low NA and High NA EUV platforms to support customer roadmaps [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges increased uncertainty in the macro environment due to tariff discussions, which may impact customers and suppliers [16] - The company is working with customers and suppliers to limit the direct impact of tariffs on results [19] - Conversations with customers indicate strong demand for AI, which is expected to solidify future demand [31] Other Important Information - The company paid a third quarterly interim dividend of EUR1.52 per ordinary share in Q1 2025 [12] - The company purchased shares for a total amount of around EUR2.7 billion in Q1 2025 [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: On High NA pricing flexibility for adoption - Management indicated that the main barrier to adoption is tool maturity rather than pricing, emphasizing the importance of achieving the right level of maturity before considering price adjustments [38][40] Question: Timing for single expose EUV adoption in DRAM - Management stated that the adoption of single expose EUV is happening continuously, with optimism for increased adoption in the coming years as productivity improves [44] Question: Bookings run rate for growth expectations - Management refrained from commenting on specific booking levels but indicated that there is a significant backlog that pertains to periods beyond 2025 [52] Question: China sales percentage and backlog composition - Management confirmed that China is expected to be a little over 25% of sales this year, with the backlog composition remaining stable in the 20% to 25% range [56][57] Question: Customer conversations regarding tariffs - Management noted that tariff announcements have not fundamentally changed business discussions, but there is uncertainty among customers regarding the implications [63][65] Question: EUV technology development in China - Management expressed skepticism about China's ability to develop EUV technology, indicating that significant progress is still years away [86] Question: AI demand and long-term TAM expectations - Management confirmed strong demand for AI, with expectations that inferencing will become a larger component of AI demand moving forward [88] Question: Gross margin expectations and tariff impacts - Management stated that it is difficult to quantify the impact of tariffs on gross margins for the full year due to ongoing uncertainties [96] Question: Geographic diversity and its effect on business - Management acknowledged that geographic diversity in semiconductor manufacturing could lead to increased demand for wafers, but tariff uncertainties remain a concern [102]

Last time I covered ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML ), I gave it a solid buy rating. Then, they had a positive outlook for the rest of 2025 and a growing monopoly in the EUV market, both ofI’m a retired Wall Street PM specializing in TMT; since kickstarting my career, I’ve spent over two decades in the market navigating the technology landscape, focusing on risk mitigation through the dot com bubble, credit default of ‘08, and, more recently, with the AI boom. In one word, what I’d like my service to revolv ...

每经编辑 黄胜 北京时间4月16日晚，美股三大指数集体低开，截至22点55分左右，道指跌0.44%，纳指跌1.98%，标普500指数跌1.15%。 值得注意的是，芯片股集体下挫，截至22点55分左右，阿斯麦跌超5%，超威半导体跌近7%，英伟达跌近7%，台积电跌超3%。 阿斯麦 ◀ ASML US 空 L1-标 2.40 649.114 昨收 683.160 量比 648.330 % 640.650 市值 2549.8亿 0.34% 换 -34.830 -5.10% 开 647.000 市盈 TM 32.46 8.67亿 额 同花顺 异动解读:业绩发布 + 业绩指引不及预期。 ... X 博诺 盘中▼ 日K 周K 月K 更多。 均价:644.332 最新:648.330 -34.830 -5.098% 6.22% 725.670 明细 成交 型 | -- 买1 -- 22:55 648.330 8 22:55 648.330 9 22:55 648.330 103 683.160 0.00%. 22:55 648.330 11 22:55 648.330 55 22:55 648.330 1 22:55 648 ...

[Consolidated Financial Performance (Three Months Ended)](index=1&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Financial%20Performance%20(Three%20Months%20Ended)) This section provides a detailed overview of ASML's financial performance, including statements of operations, key ratios, balance sheets, and cash flows for the three months ended March 30, 2025 [Summary US GAAP Consolidated Statements of Operations](index=1&type=section&id=ASML%20-%20Summary%20US%20GAAP%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations) ASML reported substantial growth in net sales, gross profit, operating income, and net income for the three months ended March 30, 2025, significantly increasing diluted net income per share Summary US GAAP Consolidated Statements of Operations (in millions €) | Metric (in millions €) | Mar 31, 2024 | Mar 30, 2025 | Change (€) | Change (%) | | :---------------------- | :----------- | :----------- | :--------- | :--------- | | Net system sales | 3,965.9 | 5,740.4 | 1,774.5 | 44.7% | | Net service and field option sales | 1,324.1 | 2,001.1 | 677.0 | 51.1% | | Total net sales | 5,290.0 | 7,741.5 | 2,451.5 | 46.3% | | Gross profit | 2,696.6 | 4,179.7 | 1,483.1 | 55.0% | | Income from operations | 1,391.4 | 2,737.9 | 1,346.5 | 96.8% | | Net income | 1,223.8 | 2,355.0 | 1,131.2 | 92.4% | | Basic net income per ordinary share | 3.11 | 6.00 | 2.89 | 92.9% | | Diluted net income per ordinary share | 3.11 | 6.00 | 2.89 | 92.9% | [Ratios and Other Data](index=1&type=section&id=ASML%20-%20Ratios%20and%20Other%20Data) Profitability ratios, lithography system sales, and net bookings improved for the three months ended March 30, 2025, alongside growth in payroll employees and a reduction in temporary staff Profitability Ratios | Metric | Mar 31, 2024 | Mar 30, 2025 | Change (pp) | | :------------------------------------ | :----------- | :----------- | :---------- | | Gross profit as a percentage of net sales | 51.0 % | 54.0 % | 3.0 | | Income from operations as a percentage of net sales | 26.3 % | 35.4 % | 9.1 | | Net income as a percentage of net sales | 23.1 % | 30.4 % | 7.3 | | Income taxes as a percentage of income before income taxes | 15.8 % | 16.7 % | 0.9 | | Shareholders' equity as a percentage of total assets | 35.3 % | 38.5 % | 3.2 | Operational Metrics | Metric | Mar 31, 2024 | Mar 30, 2025 | Change | | :------------------------------------ | :----------- | :----------- | :----- | | Sales of lithography systems (in units) | 70 | 77 | 7 | | Net bookings (in millions €) | 3,611 | 3,936 | 325 | | Number of payroll employees in FTEs | 40,940 | 43,129 | 2,189 | | Number of temporary employees in FTEs | 1,773 | 998 | (775) | - Net bookings include all system sales orders and inflation-related adjustments for which written authorizations have been accepted[3](index=3&type=chunk) [Summary US GAAP Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=3&type=section&id=ASML%20-%20Summary%20US%20GAAP%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) As of March 30, 2025, ASML's total assets, liabilities, and shareholders' equity decreased, primarily driven by a significant reduction in cash and cash equivalents Summary US GAAP Consolidated Balance Sheets (in millions €) | Metric (in millions €) | Dec 31, 2024 | Mar 30, 2025 | Change (€) | Change (%) | | :---------------------- | :----------- | :----------- | :--------- | :--------- | | Total assets | 48,589.6 | 45,478.8 | (3,110.8) | (6.4%) | | Total liabilities | 30,112.8 | 27,978.1 | (2,134.7) | (7.1%) | | Total shareholders' equity | 18,476.8 | 17,500.7 | (976.1) | (5.3%) | | Cash and cash equivalents | 12,735.9 | 9,098.4 | (3,637.5) | (28.6%) | | Inventories, net | 10,891.5 | 11,024.7 | 133.2 | 1.2% | [Summary US GAAP Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=4&type=section&id=ASML%20-%20Summary%20US%20GAAP%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) ASML experienced a significant net decrease in cash and cash equivalents for the three months ended March 30, 2025, primarily due to substantial financing outflows and cash consumption from operating activities Summary US GAAP Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (in millions €) | Cash Flow Activity (in millions €) | Mar 31, 2024 | Mar 30, 2025 | Change (€) | | :--------------------------------- | :----------- | :----------- | :--------- | | Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities | (251.9) | (58.6) | 193.3 | | Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities | (723.6) | (415.7) | 307.9 | | Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities | (927.4) | (3,151.4) | (2,224.0) | | Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents | (1,903.9) | (3,637.5) | (1,733.6) | | Cash and cash equivalents at end of the period | 5,100.8 | 9,098.4 | 3,997.6 | - Financing activities for the three months ended March 30, 2025, included significant purchase of treasury shares (**€2,592.6 million**) and dividend paid (**€597.2 million**)[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Quarterly Consolidated Financial Performance](index=5&type=section&id=Quarterly%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Performance) This section provides a detailed overview of ASML's quarterly financial performance, including statements of operations, key ratios, balance sheets, and cash flows [Quarterly Summary US GAAP Consolidated Statements of Operations](index=5&type=section&id=ASML%20-%20Quarterly%20Summary%20US%20GAAP%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations) ASML's quarterly net sales, gross profit, net income, and diluted EPS generally trended upward from Q1 2024 to Q4 2024, with a subsequent decrease in Q1 2025, yet remaining significantly higher than Q1 2024 Quarterly Summary US GAAP Consolidated Statements of Operations (in millions €) | Metric (in millions €) | Mar 31, 2024 | Jun 30, 2024 | Sep 29, 2024 | Dec 31, 2024 | Mar 30, 2025 | | :---------------------- | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | | Total net sales | 5,290.0 | 6,242.8 | 7,467.3 | 9,262.8 | 7,741.5 | | Gross profit | 2,696.6 | 3,212.2 | 3,793.4 | 4,789.8 | 4,179.7 | | Net income | 1,223.8 | 1,577.9 | 2,076.5 | 2,693.4 | 2,355.0 | | Diluted net income per ordinary share | 3.11 | 4.01 | 5.28 | 6.84 | 6.00 | [Quarterly Summary Ratios and Other Data](index=5&type=section&id=ASML%20-%20Quarterly%20Summary%20Ratios%20and%20Other%20Data) Quarterly profitability ratios generally improved from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025, while lithography system sales peaked in Q4 2024 before declining, and net bookings fluctuated significantly Quarterly Profitability Ratios | Metric | Mar 31, 2024 | Jun 30, 2024 | Sep 29, 2024 | Dec 31, 2024 | Mar 30, 2025 | | :------------------------------------ | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | | Gross profit as a percentage of net sales | 51.0 % | 51.5 % | 50.8 % | 51.7 % | 54.0 % | | Income from operations as a percentage of net sales | 26.3 % | 29.4 % | 32.7 % | 36.2 % | 35.4 % | | Net income as a percentage of net sales | 23.1 % | 25.3 % | 27.8 % | 29.1 % | 30.4 % | Quarterly Operational Metrics | Metric | Mar 31, 2024 | Jun 30, 2024 | Sep 29, 2024 | Dec 31, 2024 | Mar 30, 2025 | | :------------------------------------ | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | | Sales of lithography systems (in units) | 70 | 100 | 116 | 132 | 77 | | Net bookings (in millions €) | 3,611 | 5,567 | 2,633 | 7,088 | 3,936 | | Number of payroll employees in FTEs | 40,940 | 41,505 | 42,372 | 42,786 | 43,129 | - Net bookings include all system sales orders and inflation-related adjustments, for which written authorizations have been accepted[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Quarterly Summary US GAAP Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=6&type=section&id=ASML%20-%20Quarterly%20Summary%20US%20GAAP%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) ASML's total assets and shareholders' equity generally increased from Q1 2024 to Q4 2024 before declining in Q1 2025, with cash and cash equivalents showing significant quarterly fluctuations Quarterly Summary US GAAP Consolidated Balance Sheets (in millions €) | Metric (in millions €) | Mar 31, 2024 | Jun 30, 2024 | Sep 29, 2024 | Dec 31, 2024 | Mar 30, 2025 | | :---------------------- | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | | Total assets | 39,042.6 | 40,741.0 | 41,766.1 | 48,589.6 | 45,478.8 | | Total liabilities | 25,248.5 | 26,029.8 | 25,614.5 | 30,112.8 | 27,978.1 | | Total shareholders' equity | 13,794.1 | 14,711.2 | 16,151.6 | 18,476.8 | 17,500.7 | | Cash and cash equivalents | 5,100.8 | 4,813.6 | 4,979.3 | 12,735.9 | 9,098.4 | | Inventories, net | 9,864.5 | 10,972.3 | 11,414.5 | 10,891.5 | 11,024.7 | [Quarterly Summary US GAAP Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=7&type=section&id=ASML%20-%20Quarterly%20Summary%20US%20GAAP%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) Quarterly cash flows from operating activities varied significantly, with a large Q4 2024 inflow followed by a Q1 2025 negative, while investing activities consistently used cash and financing activities showed substantial outflows Quarterly Summary US GAAP Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (in millions €) | Cash Flow Activity (in millions €) | Mar 31, 2024 | Jun 30, 2024 | Sep 29, 2024 | Dec 31, 2024 | Mar 30, 2025 | | :--------------------------------- | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | :----------- | | Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities | (251.9) | 923.4 | 949.9 | 9,544.8 | (58.6) | | Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities | (723.6) | (437.8) | (215.0) | (1,232.9) | (415.7) | | Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities | (927.4) | (772.3) | (565.0) | (567.4) | (3,151.4) | | Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents | (1,903.9) | (287.2) | 165.7 | 7,756.6 | (3,637.5) | | Cash and cash equivalents at end of the period | 5,100.8 | 4,813.6 | 4,979.3 | 12,735.9 | 9,098.4 | [Notes and Forward-Looking Statements](index=8&type=section&id=Notes%20and%20Forward-Looking%20Statements) This section provides the basis of preparation for the financial statements and outlines the company's forward-looking statements, including industry outlook and financial expectations [Basis of Preparation](index=8&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20the%20Summary%20US%20GAAP%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) The unaudited Summary Consolidated Financial Statements are prepared in conformity with US GAAP and should be read with the 2024 Annual Report for comprehensive disclosure - The unaudited Summary Consolidated Financial Statements have been prepared in conformity with US GAAP[11](index=11&type=chunk) - These interim statements should be read in conjunction with the Consolidated Financial Statements and Notes included within the 2024 Annual Report based on US GAAP for further details on annual disclosure requirements and significant accounting policies[12](index=12&type=chunk) [Forward-Looking Statements](index=9&type=section&id=Forward%20Looking%20Statements) This section outlines ASML's forward-looking statements, encompassing industry trends, AI as a key driver, financial expectations for Q2 and full year 2025, shareholder returns, and inherent risks and uncertainties - Forward-looking statements include expectations for the semiconductor industry, with AI anticipated to be a key driver by 2030, and lithography remaining central to customer innovation[13](index=13&type=chunk) - The company provides an outlook for Q2 2025 and full year 2025, including expected net sales, gross margin, R&D costs, SG&A costs, estimated annualized effective tax rate, and expected growth in Installed Base Management (IBM) sales[13](index=13&type=chunk) - ASML expects to continue returning significant amounts of cash to shareholders through growing dividends and share buybacks, as part of its share buyback program[13](index=13&type=chunk) - These statements are subject to substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties, including customer demand, semiconductor equipment industry capacity, geopolitical developments, and export controls[13](index=13&type=chunk)

The semiconductor sector is swimming in red ink today, and ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML) is one of the primary culprits. The stock is down 6% to trade at $641.56, after the Dutch-based chipmaker reported a lackluster sales forecast. For the second quarter, ASML expects sales between 7.2 and 7.7 billion euros, lower than the 7.8 billion forecast.CEO Christophe Fouquet said in a statement: "The recent tariff announcements have increased uncertainty in the macro environment and the situation will remain dynami ...

About this content About Oliver Haill Oliver has been writing about companies and markets since the early 2000s, cutting his teeth as a financial journalist at Growth Company Investor with a focusing on AIM companies and small caps, before a few years later becoming a section editor and then head of research. He joined Proactive after a couple of years freelancing, where he worked for the Financial Times Group, ITV, Press Association, Reuters sports desk, the London Olympic News Service, Rugby World Cup ...

Tariff-related uncertainty is not only making stock-picking incredibly hard, with stocks trading on politics and news instead of fundamentals, but it's clouding the outlook for European crown jewel ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML ).With 30 years until retirement, I’m leveraging my role as a Financial Analyst at a Fortune 500 firm to build a market-beating portfolio that targets both strong capital appreciation and aggressive dividend growth.My focus is on blue-chip companies with wide moats, competitive advantag ...