The Oracle of Omaha has been socking hundreds of millions of dollars away in an investment that currently yields almost 4%.Warren Buffett will retire as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.50%) (BRK.B 0.39%) at the end of 2025 and leave Greg Abel in charge. The $1 trillion conglomerate constructed by Buffett over the last 60 years operates a diverse array of wholly owned subsidiaries, and also owns a stock portfolio worth about $314 billion as of this writing.But just because Buffett's tenure as the head of ...

Core Viewpoint - The immediate risk of Japanese yen intervention is low, even as the yen depreciates to the critical level of 155 yen per dollar, as the usual conditions for intervention have not been met [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - The yen has depreciated approximately 4% against the dollar in October, making it the worst performer among G-10 currencies [1] - The recent depreciation is attributed to the market's reaction to the new Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, who is perceived to favor fiscal expansion and dovish monetary policy [2] - The so-called "Kishi Sanae trade" has led to significant volatility in the stock, bond, and currency markets, reflecting expectations of a return to "Abenomics" [2] Group 2: Government and Central Bank Stance - Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki has indicated that the government is closely monitoring the yen's movements, particularly those driven by speculation [3] - The last intervention by the Japanese Finance Ministry occurred in 2024, with the ministry having over $270 billion available for potential intervention [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that intervention risks will significantly increase if the dollar-yen exchange rate reaches the 161-162 yen range [3] Group 3: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs expects the yen to gradually appreciate as hedging costs decrease and the dollar index weakens due to anticipated Fed rate cuts [4] - However, substantial fiscal stimulus measures under "Abenomics" and the potential for the U.S. economy to outperform other regions could undermine the yen's appreciation outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the key conditions for intervention in the foreign exchange market have not yet been met, despite the rising USD/JPY exchange rate approaching 155 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In October, the USD/JPY increased by approximately 4%, making the yen the worst-performing major currency among G-10 currencies [4]. - The recent poor performance of the yen is primarily driven by Japan's fiscal risk premium and the repricing of short-term interest rate expectations by the Bank of Japan [2][4]. Group 2: Government and Central Bank Actions - Japanese officials have expressed concerns over the rapid and unilateral movements in the foreign exchange market, with Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stating that they are closely monitoring the situation with a sense of urgency [4]. - The last intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance occurred in 2024 at USD/JPY levels of approximately 157.99, 159.45, 160.17, and 161.76 [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the yen will gradually appreciate in the long term as hedging costs decrease and the USD weakens, although this trend could accelerate if U.S. labor market data deteriorates [5]. - Analysts from Bank of America suggest that the USD/JPY may test the 158 level before triggering substantial policy responses, maintaining a year-end forecast of 155 while noting an increased risk of reaching 160 by Q4 2025 [5].

Ahead of BofA's first Investor Day in 15 years, Mike Mayo, head of U.S. large-cap bank research at Wells Fargo Securities says Bank of America must show investors how it plans to boost returns and selectively take on more risk. He expects management to outline a path to 16 18% returns and discussed more outlook on "Bloomberg Markets" with Scarlet Fu. ...

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities head of US large-cap bank research, previews Bank of America's investor day, the first one in almost 15 years. He speaks with Scarlet Fu on "Bloomberg Markets." ...

Group 1 - Bank of America is highlighted as a key stock in Jim Cramer's game plan, with an upcoming analyst meeting expected to provide valuable insights into consumer behavior and the economy [1] - Cramer believes Bank of America is an inexpensive stock with potential for significant price appreciation, suggesting investors should hold onto it rather than take profits [2] - The company offers a range of financial services, including banking, investment, and wealth management, positioning it well in the current market environment [2] Group 2 - There is a comparison made between Bank of America and certain AI stocks, indicating that while BAC has potential, some AI stocks may offer greater upside and lower downside risk [2]

Group 1: American Express - American Express (Amex) has built its business on exclusivity and premium service, attracting affluent customers with its perks and reliability [1] - Amex operates uniquely by issuing its own cards and running its own network, allowing it to capture fees from both merchants and cardholders [6] - The company has faced pushback due to rising fees, but it aims to ensure that its value proposition matches or exceeds these increases, particularly focusing on growth among millennials and Gen-Z [7] Group 2: Apple - Apple remains a leader in consumer tech hardware, maintaining strong brand loyalty despite a lack of groundbreaking new products [2] - The company's total revenue, iPhone revenue, and earnings per share reached record highs in its fiscal third quarter, with services revenue also setting an all-time high [1] - Apple's stock has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 over the past year, attributed to its slower pace in AI development compared to other tech stocks [3] Group 3: Bank of America - Bank of America is the second-largest bank in the U.S. and leads in retail banking, with around $1.2 trillion in consumer deposits and serving 96% of Fortune 1,000 companies [8] - The bank's business is somewhat cyclical, thriving when interest rates rise, but its "too big to fail" status adds a layer of security [9] - Investing in Bank of America is seen as a choice for long-term investors due to its profitability, diversification, and reliable dividend yield above the S&P 500 average [10] Group 4: Coca-Cola - Coca-Cola is one of Berkshire Hathaway's oldest holdings, known for its strong brand, unmatched distribution, and resilience in various economic conditions [11][12] - The company is recognized as a "dividend king," having increased dividends for at least 50 consecutive years, making it a reliable income stock [13]

Core Viewpoint - The "Sell Side Indicator" (SSI) from Bank of America has slightly increased to 55.7% in October, remaining in the "neutral" zone, indicating that the market is not yet at an extreme level of optimism or pessimism [1][3]. Group 1: Sell Side Indicator Analysis - The SSI is a contrarian sentiment signal, suggesting that when Wall Street strategists are extremely pessimistic, it often predicts a market rise, and vice versa [3]. - The current SSI level of 55.7% is still far from the "buy" signal threshold of 51.3% and 2.1 percentage points away from the "sell" signal threshold of 57.8% [3][5]. - Historically, market peaks are typically associated with SSI readings exceeding 59%, indicating that the current market sentiment has not reached irrational exuberance [3][8]. Group 2: Predictive Power of the Indicator - The SSI has a predictive power (R² value) of 25% for forecasting the S&P 500's returns over the next 12 months, which is significantly better than other single-factor models like price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields [5][7]. - When the SSI is in the "buy" zone, the average total return for the S&P 500 over the following 12 months is 20.5%, while in the "sell" zone, it drops to 2.7% [9][10]. Group 3: Market Fundamentals - Among companies that have reported earnings, 63% exceeded both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue expectations, marking the highest percentage since 2021, indicating strong corporate fundamentals [13]. - However, the market's reaction to these earnings has been muted, with companies that beat expectations only outperforming the market by an average of 0.9 percentage points, below the historical average of 1.4 percentage points [13]. - Companies that missed expectations faced severe penalties, with average stock prices lagging the market by 7.2 percentage points, nearly three times the usual decline [13].

It’s not ideal for Bank of America's CEO to face shareholders this week: Its stock is the worst performer of the six largest US banks this year. Last year as well. And over the past five years. https://t.co/RHu8f9UCTB ...

Core Insights - Warren Buffett's 2023 letter highlights Berkshire Hathaway's impressive 3,787,464% gain since 1965, emphasizing the importance of investing in companies that significantly increase their dividends over time [2][3] Investment Strategy - The secret to Berkshire's success lies in its investments in companies like Coca-Cola and American Express, which have provided substantial dividend income, with Berkshire collecting over $1 billion annually from these two investments [3][4] - Coca-Cola and American Express have raised their dividends by 19% and 91%, respectively, since the letter was written, indicating strong growth in income streams [4] Portfolio Overview - Berkshire Hathaway's largest holding is Apple, comprising 22.3% of its portfolio with 280 million shares, and the company has doubled its dividend since Buffett began purchasing shares in 2016 [6] - Berkshire collects $291.2 million annually in dividends from Apple, based on a total investment of approximately $40 billion [8] - Bank of America is the second-largest holding, making up just over 11% of the portfolio with 605 million shares, and has nearly quadrupled its dividend since Buffett converted preferred shares to common shares in 2017, now paying over $675 million in dividends per year [9]