Group 1: Retirement Savings Investment - The first executive order signed by President Trump aims to allow ordinary Americans to invest their retirement savings in private market assets, including private equity, cryptocurrencies, and private real estate, opening new opportunities for Wall Street investment firms [1][2] - This initiative provides hedge funds and private equity firms with access to a significant pool of funds similar to 401(k) retirement plans, which they have long sought [2] - However, investing in private markets typically involves higher fees and lower liquidity, raising uncertainty about employers' willingness to include private market options in 401(k) plans [2][3] - Concerns have been raised regarding potential lawsuits and regulatory pressures on asset management firms if these new investments fail to deliver expected returns [2] Group 2: Banking and "De-Banking" Focus - The second executive order focuses on the issue of "de-banking," particularly concerning large banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, which have been accused of excluding certain clients based on "reputation risk" [1][4] - The order aims to investigate whether banks are discriminating against clients for political or religious reasons and to impose disciplinary actions on those found guilty [4] - The directive also instructs regulatory agencies to cease using "reputation risk" as a justification for client exclusion, especially in politically motivated decisions [4] - Some Republican figures have pointed out that banks often use vague legal risks or internal rules to justify their political decisions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent reports from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America indicate that the U.S. economy is in a phase of "weak growth and high uncertainty," influenced by tariff disruptions, labor market changes, and Federal Reserve policy direction [1] Economic Growth Outlook - Goldman Sachs projects a GDP growth rate of only 1.2% for the first half of 2025, below the estimated potential growth rate of 2% and lower than earlier market expectations [2] - For the second half of 2025, Goldman Sachs anticipates further slowdown, with growth rates dropping to 1% in Q3 and Q4, and a quarterly growth rate of just 1.1% in Q4 [2] - Morgan Stanley also predicts a decline in U.S. GDP growth from 2.3% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 1.1% in 2026 [2] Sector Performance Divergence - **Consumer Spending**: Goldman Sachs reports a significant drop in real consumer spending growth to around 1% in the first half of 2025, half of the initial expectations, driven by rising savings rates and inflation pressures from tariffs [3] - **Housing Market**: Goldman Sachs identifies housing as the weakest sector, forecasting an annual decline of 8% in the second half of 2025, influenced by high mortgage rates and reduced immigration affecting housing demand [4] - **Business Investment**: Business investment grew by 6% in the first half of 2025, exceeding expectations, but is expected to decline by 0.6% in the second half due to "repayment effects" from earlier import surges [6][7] Tariff Impact - Tariff policies are highlighted as a core variable affecting the economy, with short-term trade disruptions and long-term impacts on trade deficits [8] - Goldman Sachs notes that high tariffs will reduce import demand significantly in the second half of 2025, while a weaker dollar may support exports, leading to a decrease in the trade deficit as a percentage of GDP from 3.1% at the end of 2024 to 2.4% [8] Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - Bank of America maintains a "hawkish" stance, arguing against interest rate cuts in 2025 due to persistent inflation and a stable labor market [9][10] - Morgan Stanley predicts a rate cut of 175 basis points in 2026, citing expected economic slowdown and declining inflation [10] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding policy changes and their potential impact on investment volatility [10] Consensus and Divergence Among Analysts - There is a consensus that economic growth will remain below potential levels, with tariffs being a significant variable affecting trade and inflation [11] - Divergence exists in the focus areas of the analysts, with Goldman Sachs concerned about inventory and trade uncertainties, Morgan Stanley warning of market over-optimism, and Bank of America highlighting stagflation risks [12] Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on export opportunities arising from reduced trade deficits, while Morgan Stanley recommends high-quality cyclical stocks and investment-grade credit bonds [13] - Bank of America advises avoiding high-leverage sectors sensitive to interest rates [13]

The Dow, S&P, and the NASDAQ all about 2% from their highs. Savvita Subramanyan is the head of US equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America securities and she joins us live this morning. Sevita, you were looking for a price target not much higher than where stocks are right here for the end of the year.But you do say there's upside risk to that. I do think so. I mean, look, I we're at a point that is frustrating because sentiment is not necessarily bearish or bullish based on all the things we loo ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for delaying interest rate cuts and narrowed down potential candidates for the next Fed chair to four individuals, including former Fed governor Kevin Walsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett, while ruling out Treasury Secretary Scott Bencet [2] - Trump mentioned that he plans to utilize the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler to select the future Fed chair, following her resignation [2] Group 2: Drug Tariffs - Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imported drugs that could reach as high as 250%, marking the highest rate he has threatened so far [2] - Initially, Trump considered a lower tariff but indicated a gradual increase over the next year to year and a half, starting at 150% before reaching 250% [2][3] - The administration's investigation under Section 232 aims to assess the impact of imported drugs on national security, with Trump urging pharmaceutical companies to lower drug prices by September 29 [3] Group 3: Trade Relations with India - Trump announced plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian imports, stating that India is the country with the highest tariffs and not a good trade partner [4][5] - He previously announced a 25% tariff on goods exported from India to the U.S. and threatened further increases [4] - The Indian government is seeking negotiations to lower these tariffs and is considering increasing imports of natural gas and communication equipment from the U.S. [5] Group 4: Banking Discrimination Claims - Trump claimed that JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America discriminated against him by refusing to open accounts for him, leading him to choose smaller local banks instead [6][8] - He suggested that the refusal was politically motivated due to pressure from regulatory agencies during the Biden administration [8] - JPMorgan Chase denied any political discrimination, emphasizing the need for regulatory reform [8]

Bank of America CEO Brian Moyahan says he does does not expect a recession despite today's disappointing ISM data. Take a listen to what he said. >> Our economists believe there'll be no recession.They believe the econ the economy in the US will go about 1 one and a half% this year. They believe that the Fed will not cut rates because inflation will take longer to get down. >> That the Fed will not cut rates >> during 25.They'll cut them at 26. And that they've been on that for a long time. And they believe ...

So, I I got up early because we're on East Coast time. I was I was working out and I was watching your wonderful show and he came on and I'm telling you, I'm still trying to unsee some of the visuals that he created with his commentary. But look, the president's after the right thing, which is the laws, rules, and regulations around our industry became used to cause things to happen.It's whether it's BSL, whether it's KYC, whether it's reputational risk. going to hear Tim Scott quote about it. It is right t ...

Bank of America is pushing its investment-banking analysts to disclose if they’ve accepted jobs elsewhere and telling them they face redeployment if they do so https://t.co/dwtwB0EUYX ...

Um, let me pivot to the economy, which is the topic in debate that's happening here, which is really just how strong it is or is not. Uh, you saw the jobs numbers on Friday. Uh, but there's a lot of folks here who have sort of varying views of what's really going on.You actually have the data. So, I'm curious what you're actually seeing. So, look, our economists believe there'll be no recession.They believe the econ the economy in the US will go about 1 one and a half% this year. They believe that the Fed w ...

Welcome back to Power Lunch. The Aspen Institute's annual economic strategy group meeting is underway where leaders in business and public policy are gathering to promote solutions to the economic challenges in the country. Our Andrew Ross Sorcin has been reporting from there all day and joins us now with a special guest.Andrew, good morning to you, or I should say really good afternoon. Joining me right here in Aspen is Bank of America's CEO, Brian Moahan. And um I originally planned to talk to you about t ...

JPMorgan and Bank of America “debanked” President Trump for his role in the January 6 Capitol Hill melee following pressure from the Biden administration’s banking regulators and the Federal Reserve, people with direct knowledge of the matter tell The Post.The exact reason for Trump and his tens of millions of dollars in holdings being kicked off the JPMorgan banking platform, and then denied access to Bank of America’s services has yet to be reported.But sources at the banks — the No. 1 and No. 2 largest i ...