中经记者 慈玉鹏 北京报道 2026年，居民定期存款大规模到期，有机构预测规模将超过50万亿元。《中国经营报》记者采访了解 到，在存款利率下行的大背景下，2026年"开门红"期间，保险产品成为银行重点推荐的理财产品，主要 为分红险和年金险，受到客户欢迎，成为银行抢客"利器"。部分产品年化利率或达到3%以上，具体根 据市场情况或有变动。 另外，此前一个银行网点只能和1家主合作保险公司与3家辅合作保险公司合作，相当于只能卖这4家的 保险产品。而2024年5月，监管取消了该限制，打开了合作大门。 均属于长期投资 从产品特点看，一位北京地区银行人士告诉记者，分红险和年金险均有一定封闭期，至少存完第二年方 可取出。像分红险，一般都是交3年，第4年回本，而年金险的话，一般最快也是第5年回本。该类产品 均是长期投资，属于终身型理财产品。 上述北京地区银行人士告诉记者，从收益看，一般分红险要比年金险高。而从流动性看，如果客户有现 金流需求，则更适合年金险。年金险分为两种，一种是快返型年金险，基本第五年就开始返回年金加分 红；一种是养老型年金，即等到客户退休之后每年返回固定金额。而分红险（增额人寿险），一般是前 3年每年投入金 ...

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证券研究报告 | 2026年01月28日 美国四大行 2025 年业绩快报点评 信贷扩张与息差韧性难掩资产质量隐忧 |  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  银行 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田维韦 | 021-60875161 | tianweiwei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520030002 | | 证券分析师： | 王剑 | 021-60875165 | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980518070002 | 事项： 摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行披露 2025 年四季度业绩快报，2025 全年分别实现净利润 570/305/143/213 亿美元，同比分别下降 2.4%、增长 13.1%、增长 12.8%和增长 8.2%。 核心观点：美国大行在信贷扩张与息差韧性支撑下维持较好业绩增长，但资产质量恶化和拨备压力上升构 成未来主要隐忧。美国四大行业绩整体呈现较好增长，摩根大通净利润小幅下降主要是四季度因将接受高 盛的苹果信用卡业务而 ...

事项： 摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行披露 2025 年四季度业绩快报，2025 全年分别实现净利润 570/305/143/213 亿美元，同比分别下降 2.4%、增长 13.1%、增长 12.8%和增长 8.2%。 核心观点：美国大行在信贷扩张与息差韧性支撑下维持较好业绩增长，但资产质量恶化和拨备压力上升构 成未来主要隐忧。美国四大行业绩整体呈现较好增长，摩根大通净利润小幅下降主要是四季度因将接受高 盛的苹果信用卡业务而计提了 22 亿美元拨备。驱动因素具体来看，（1）规模上，信贷扩张明显提速，商 业贷款和信用卡贷款成为主要驱动力，反映科技投资热潮与降息环境下居民消费需求的回暖。（2）然而， 资产质量压力凸显不容忽视。2023~2025 年四大行不良率、净核销率及不良生成率指标持续攀升，基本上 已经和疫情时期水平相当，信用卡净核销率甚至处在多年来的最高水平，显示风险正在积聚。但公司拨备 覆盖率处在近几年相对较低的水平，表明美国大行或没有为未来不良暴露做好充分的准备。（3）净息差 彰显了较强韧性。尽管美联储在 2024~2025 年累计降息 175 个基点，但 2025 年净息差呈现企稳甚至小幅 回 ...

Core Viewpoint - Market focus is shifting towards the timing and implications of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, particularly for equity sectors like banks and homebuilders, as easing may occur if inflation pressures continue to decrease [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Banks - Banks are highly sensitive to interest rate changes, with their income largely derived from the spread between deposit rates and loan rates. Higher funding costs and cautious borrowing have limited profit growth for major US banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. [5][6]. - A shift towards lower rates could stabilize net interest margins, as competition for deposits may ease, allowing banks to retain customers without further rate increases [7]. - Lower borrowing costs could enhance demand for loans, including mortgages and business loans, potentially improving bank revenues after a period of stagnation [8]. - However, if rate cuts are driven by economic stress, there could be an increase in loan defaults, making credit risk a critical variable for banks [9]. - Many bank stocks are trading below historical price-to-book averages, and if earnings expectations stabilize, there could be a re-rating of financials as confidence in balance sheet strength improves [11]. Group 2: Impact on Homebuilders - The housing sector is particularly sensitive to interest rates, with mortgage rates closely following long-term Treasury yields. Changes in rates can significantly affect buyer behavior [12]. - A rate cut cycle could improve mortgage affordability, unlocking demand from buyers who previously delayed purchases due to high monthly payments [14]. - Limited housing supply relative to historical norms could magnify price effects if demand recovers faster than supply, allowing builders to regain pricing power [15]. - Despite lower rates, construction costs remain high, and labor shortages could impact profit growth. Builders with national scale and efficient supply chains may be better positioned to protect margins [16]. - Homebuilder stocks often serve as forward indicators for broader consumer health, with strength in this sector potentially reinforcing optimism about discretionary spending [17]. Group 3: Yield Curve and Economic Indicators - The shape of the yield curve is crucial for both banks and homebuilders. A steeper curve benefits banks by widening the gap between lending rates and deposit costs, while lower long-term yields lead to cheaper mortgage rates for homebuyers [18]. - If the Fed cuts short-term rates while long-term yields remain stable, both sectors could benefit. However, if long-term yields fall sharply due to anticipated economic slowdowns, housing affordability may improve, but banks could face weaker loan demand and rising credit risk [19]. - Key indicators to watch include inflation data, labor market conditions, mortgage rate trends, and bank earnings guidance, as these will help determine whether rate cuts support or undermine the banking and housing industries [20][21][22][25]. Group 4: Investment Positioning - Bank stocks and homebuilders are often viewed as early cycle trades, typically outperforming when monetary policy shifts from restrictive to neutral and growth remains intact. Timing is critical, as entering too early may expose investors to downside risks, while waiting too long could result in missing initial phases of multiple expansions [26]. - Diversified banks with strong capital levels and stable deposit bases are better positioned than those with heavy exposure to riskier credit segments. Similarly, builders with national footprints and flexible pricing strategies may be more capable of converting improving demand into earnings growth [27]. - The Fed's next rate cut window is not just a macro headline but a potential catalyst for leadership changes across the equity market, with the performance of banks and homebuilders depending on the economic backdrop accompanying the cuts [28].

Bank of America Corporation (BAC), headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, provides banking and financial products and services. With a market cap of $379.9 billion, the company offers saving accounts, deposits, mortgage and construction loans, cash and wealth management, certificates of deposit, investment funds, credit and debit cards, insurance, mobile, and online banking services. Shares of this banking giant have underperformed the broader market over the past year. BAC has gained 11.8% over thi ...

Core Insights - Bank of America (BAC) and Truist Financial (TFC) reported solid fourth-quarter 2025 results with year-over-year growth in earnings and revenues, prompting a comparison of their investment potential post-earnings [2] Group 1: Bank of America (BAC) - BAC is expected to see net interest income (NII) growth of approximately 5-7% in 2026, driven by asset repricing, loan and deposit growth, and technological efficiency [3][11] - The bank plans to expand its financial center network by opening over 150 centers by 2027, enhancing customer relationships and tapping into new markets [4] - BAC's non-interest income streams, including asset management fees and investment banking, showed positive momentum and are expected to continue in 2026 [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) stands at 11.07%, indicating efficient use of shareholder funds [21] - Following the 2025 stress test, BAC raised its dividend by 8% to 28 cents per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.15% [17] Group 2: Truist Financial (TFC) - TFC expects NII growth of 3-4% in 2026, supported by average loan growth and fixed-rate asset repricing [10][11] - The company announced a growth plan to open 100 new branches and renovate over 300 existing locations by 2030, focusing on enhancing its digital capabilities [8] - TFC's ROE is lower at 9.03%, reflecting less efficient use of shareholder funds compared to BAC [21] - TFC maintains a higher dividend yield of 4.14%, with its dividend payout remaining at 52 cents per share [17] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Over the past six months, BAC shares have risen by 11.3%, outperforming TFC's 7.9% increase [13] - In terms of valuation, TFC is trading at a forward P/E of 11.11X, while BAC is at 11.94X, indicating TFC is trading at a discount [16][17] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates BAC's earnings growth of 13.1% and 14.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, while TFC's growth is estimated at 13.4% and 12.1% [23][26] - Overall, BAC is viewed as better positioned for long-term growth due to its scale, diversified income streams, and ongoing expansion strategy, despite TFC's higher dividend yield [29][30]

Core Insights - Bank of America's loan book expanded by 8% year over year to $1.17 trillion as of December 31, 2025, with commercial balances driving most of the growth at 12% [1][9] - Consumer lending growth was more modest at 4%, indicating a cautious borrowing appetite among households [5][9] Loan Composition - Commercial loans accounted for the majority of quarterly growth, with a 12% increase from the prior year, reflecting diverse demand across U.S. and non-U.S. markets [4][9] - Consumer balances increased by 4%, primarily driven by credit cards and direct/indirect consumer lending, suggesting selective borrowing behavior [5][9] Future Outlook - The sustainability of commercial momentum is contingent on business confidence and macroeconomic clarity, while faster rate cuts could compress net interest income [6][7] - The next few quarters will depend on whether commercial demand remains strong as rates decrease and if credit costs are kept in check [7] Peer Comparison - JPMorgan's total loans reached $1.49 trillion, with wholesale loans growing by 17% year over year, while consumer loans increased by 4% [10] - Citigroup reported $752 billion in loans, with corporate loans growing by 14% year over year, while consumer loans also rose by 4% [11] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Bank of America shares have increased by 7.9% over the past six months, trading at a price-to-tangible book ratio of 1.89X, below the industry average [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Bank of America's earnings implies year-over-year growth of 13.1% for 2026 and 14.4% for 2027, although recent estimates have been revised lower [13]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) shares experienced a decline of 7.39% over the past month following a previous gain of 6.15% in the month prior [1] Company Performance - The stock performance indicates a significant volatility, with a notable drop in value after a period of growth [1] Market Context - The recent fluctuations in Bank of America's stock price may reflect broader market trends or specific company-related factors impacting investor sentiment [1]

Core Insights - Nearly 60% of the largest banks in the U.S. are either already offering Bitcoin-related services or expect to do so, indicating a significant trend towards Bitcoin adoption in the banking sector [1][5] Group 1: Current Offerings and Initiatives - Major U.S. banks such as JPMorgan Chase have launched Bitcoin trading services, while Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley provide Bitcoin exposure primarily to high-net-worth clients [2] - U.S. Bank and BNY Mellon are among the first systemically important banks to offer custody services for Bitcoin [3] - PNC Group has launched both Bitcoin custody and trading services, while State Street and HSBC's U.S. operations have announced custody plans [5] Group 2: Exploratory Stages and Recommendations - Some banks, including Citigroup and Fifth Third, are still in the exploratory stages regarding custody and trading offerings [6] - Bank of America has recommended that clients allocate up to 4% of their portfolios to cryptocurrencies, reflecting a shift in stance even among banks without direct Bitcoin products [4][9] - Bank of America also plans to initiate coverage of four U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which provide direct exposure to Bitcoin [10] Group 3: Banks Yet to Enter the Market - Despite the growing momentum, a significant minority of large U.S. banks have not yet announced Bitcoin-related products or plans, with nine banks remaining on the sidelines [7][8][11]