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巴菲特,调仓大动作!
中国基金报· 2025-11-15 02:27
Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has made significant changes to its investment portfolio in the third quarter, including a new position in Alphabet and a reduction in its holdings of Apple and other stocks [2][11]. Summary by Sections New Purchases - Berkshire initiated a new position in Alphabet, purchasing approximately 17.85 million shares, valued at about $4.34 billion, which represents 1.62% of its total portfolio and ranks as the tenth largest holding [6][9]. Increased Holdings - The company increased its stake in Chubb Limited (insurance) by about 4.3 million shares, raising its market value by $1.21 billion, with the holding percentage increasing from 3.04% to 3.31% [8]. Reduced Holdings - Berkshire sold approximately 41.79 million shares of Apple, a reduction of over 14.92%, leaving it with over 238.21 million shares valued at approximately $60.66 billion, making Apple still the largest holding [11][12]. - The company also reduced its holdings in Bank of America by about 37.22 million shares, decreasing its stake from 11.12% to 10.96% [14]. - Berkshire completely exited its position in D.R. Horton, selling all 1.4854 million shares, which is significant as the company is considered a barometer for the U.S. housing market [11][13]. Overall Portfolio Changes - As of the end of the third quarter, Berkshire held a total of 41 stocks in the U.S. market, with a total market value of $267 billion, an increase from $258 billion in the previous quarter. The top ten holdings accounted for 86.69% of the total portfolio [4][5].
X @Nick Szabo
Nick Szabo· 2025-11-14 22:00
RT unusual_whales (@unusual_whales)Hardship withdrawals from 401(k)s are at the highest point they have recorded, per Bank of America, $BAC. https://t.co/UtqPDklczB ...
Bank of America (BAC) Up 4.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
ZACKS· 2025-11-14 17:31
Core Viewpoint - Bank of America reported strong Q3 2025 earnings, exceeding expectations, driven by solid trading and investment banking performance, but faces questions about the sustainability of this positive trend leading up to the next earnings release [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 earnings per share were $1.06, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 94 cents and up from 81 cents in the prior-year quarter [2]. - Total revenues reached $28.09 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $27.28 billion and reflecting a 10.8% year-over-year increase [7]. - Net interest income (NII) grew 9% year-over-year to $15.39 billion, slightly above the estimate of $15.29 billion [7]. - Non-interest income increased 13% year-over-year to $12.86 billion, driven by higher fees and commissions, surpassing the projected $11.66 billion [8]. - Net income applicable to common shareholders rose 26% year-over-year to $8.04 billion, exceeding the estimate of $6.85 billion [6]. Trading and Investment Banking Performance - Trading revenues grew 8.3% year-over-year to $5.35 billion, marking the 14th consecutive quarter of improvement [3]. - Investment banking fees in the Global Banking division increased 47.5% year-over-year to $1.16 billion, with equity and debt underwriting income rising 47% and 42.2%, respectively [4]. Expense and Efficiency Metrics - Non-interest expenses rose 5.2% year-over-year to $17.34 billion, attributed to increases in nearly all cost components [8]. - The efficiency ratio improved to 61.39%, down from 64.64% in the prior-year quarter, indicating enhanced profitability [9]. Credit Quality and Capital Position - Provision for credit losses decreased 16% year-over-year to $1.30 billion, better than the estimated $1.58 billion [10]. - Net charge-offs declined 10.9% year-over-year to $1.37 billion, with non-performing loans as a percentage of total loans dropping to 0.46% from 0.53% [11]. - Book value per share increased to $37.95 from $35.37 a year ago, while tangible book value per share rose to $28.39 from $26.25 [12]. Share Repurchase and Future Guidance - The company repurchased shares worth $5.3 billion during the reported quarter [13]. - Management expects NII for Q4 2025 to be between $15.6 billion and $15.7 billion, indicating an 8% year-over-year growth [14]. Medium-Term Targets - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5-7% for NII, with loans and deposits expected to grow by 5% or more and 4%, respectively [16]. - The efficiency ratio is projected to improve to the low-60% range over time [15].
每日机构分析:11月14日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-14 12:06
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs suggests that the Federal Reserve may soon announce "reserve management purchases," injecting liquidity into the market by buying short-term government bonds, which the market interprets as a signal for a new round of quantitative easing (QE) [1][3] - JPMorgan's CEO emphasizes that the current AI investment wave is not a market bubble but the beginning of a significant transformation in corporate operations, indicating that the market's expectations for AI's value exceed its current realizations, suggesting substantial potential [1] - Citi notes an improvement in credit outlook for peripheral Eurozone countries, with Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Ireland likely to receive credit rating upgrades by 2026 due to fiscal consolidation and resilient economic growth [1] Group 2 - Guggenheim's Chief Investment Officer indicates that the economic slowdown reflected in the Beige Book, along with pressures on low-income groups and small businesses, suggests a "dual-speed economy," leading the Fed to likely cut rates again in December [2] - Blackhawk Analytics reports that initial jobless claims in the U.S. slightly decreased to 227,500, indicating a stable labor market, which may support the Fed's decision to hold rates steady in December [2] - Morgan Stanley's economists assert that the current level of initial jobless claims is consistent with recent years, showing no signs of an escalating layoff trend, and that the government shutdown may have distorted data reporting [2]
银行为何可以八折卖房?这绝对不是做慈善,而是在卖房贷
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-14 11:36
银行为何可以八折卖房?你可别意味着银行是火烧眉毛,没有办法才这样做。实际上银行卖的不是房,而是房子作为载体的贷款。这是什么意思呢? 可是如果把房子卖出去,那就可以找到房贷的接盘侠,这样一来,等于另外那100万的利润也有了着落了。这样哪怕房子以市场价格80万卖出去,银行总计 还可以回收到180万的资金。这样肯定比一分钱利润都没有强多了。同时以八折卖房,那速度也肯定要快于市场其他渠道的房源。 这就是银行卖房的逻辑,表面上看着是卖房,实际上是卖房贷。那银行这样干,对房地产市场到底是好还是坏呢? 因为银行觉得自己有一个优势,因为可以比远低于市场价格来卖这套房子。这里面的逻辑是什么呢?因为我们上面说了,房子市价是100万,如果断供了, 银行哪怕是通过拍卖处理了房子,也只是回收本金而已。 你可能觉得大量廉价房产进入市场,对房价肯定是一个巨大冲击。这确实没有错,可是长期来看,这对加速房地产筑底是有好处的,因为这可以加速银行的 资金周转效率,也可以加速不良资产的处置。换句话说这一招实际上就是空间换时间,要更大的房价下降空间,换来更快的筑底过程。 比如说一套房子100万,你贷款30年,最后银行可以回收大约200万的资金,其中1 ...
伯克希尔三季度大幅减持了苹果和美银?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-11-14 00:43
伯克希尔-哈撒韦第三季度出售了120亿美元股票,延续了多年来的净卖出趋势。苹果和美国银行成为最 主要的减持对象,同时该公司也购入64亿美元股票,多数新增持仓集中在商业和工业类别。 伯克希尔第三季度最新10-Q报告显示出售股票124亿美元、购入股票64亿美元,实现资本利得约100亿 美元。据媒体周五估算,截至6月30日持有2.8亿股苹果股票的伯克希尔,在三季度可能减持约3500万 股;而美国银行的持仓则从6月底的略高于6亿股中减持了5000万至1亿股。这一估算基于伯克希尔第三 季度10-Q报告中披露的相关财务数据。 伯克希尔预计将在周五晚间发布季度13-F报告,详细披露截至9月30日的美国上市证券持仓情况。周五 是13-F文件提交的最后期限,而伯克希尔通常会等到最后一天才提交。 多年净卖出趋势持续 另一关键线索来自伯克希尔"消费品"类别股票成本基础在三季度减少约12亿美元。苹果很可能被归入这 一类别——伯克希尔将其约3000亿美元股票持仓分为三大类:消费品、金融、商业工业及其他。 根据几年前的披露,伯克希尔持有苹果股票的成本基础约为每股35美元,出售约3500万股正好与12亿美 元的成本基础减少相吻合。 新增持 ...
800点大跌
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-11-13 23:53
Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 800 points, marking a 1.65% decrease, while the Nasdaq fell by 2.29% [2][3] - Major companies such as Disney and Goldman Sachs led the decline, with Disney's stock dropping over 7% and Goldman Sachs nearly 4% [1][2] Economic Indicators - The market anticipates the release of the October employment report, which will not include unemployment rate data, leading to a drop in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December from 62.9% to slightly above 49% [4][5] - The government shutdown, which lasted 43 days, has been officially ended, with President Trump signing a temporary funding bill, but the economic impact is expected to be significant, with a projected GDP decline of 1.5% for Q4 [4][5] Company Performance - Disney reported mixed results for Q4, with revenues of $22.46 billion, slightly below market expectations of $22.75 billion, despite a year-over-year revenue decline [9] - Disney's direct-to-consumer segment saw an 8% revenue increase, reaching $6.25 billion, and exceeded subscriber expectations for Disney+ and Hulu [9] Financial Sector - Major banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup saw declines in their stock prices, with JPMorgan down over 3% and Goldman Sachs nearly 4% [5][6] - Financial institutions are urging the Federal Reserve to take action to address liquidity issues in the short-term financing market [5] Energy Sector - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global oil supply surplus for the sixth consecutive month, predicting a surplus of approximately 4 million barrels per day by 2026 [10][11] - Oil prices showed a slight rebound after a significant drop, with WTI crude futures rising about 0.3% [10]
800点大跌
中国基金报· 2025-11-13 23:48
Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 800 points, marking a 1.65% decrease, closing at 47,457.22 points. The Nasdaq fell by 536.10 points, a 2.29% drop, ending at 22,870.36 points, while the S&P 500 decreased by 113.43 points, or 1.66%, to close at 6,737.49 points [4]. Federal Reserve and Economic Impact - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has sharply decreased to slightly above 49%, down from 62.9% the previous day, indicating a significant market shift in expectations [6]. - The government shutdown, which lasted 43 days, has been officially ended, with President Trump signing a temporary funding bill. The shutdown reportedly cost the economy approximately $1.5 trillion, and the full impact will take weeks or months to assess [6][8]. Corporate Performance - Disney's stock fell over 7% following mixed results in its fourth-quarter earnings report. While profits exceeded expectations, revenue fell short, coming in at $22.46 billion, slightly below the anticipated $22.75 billion [12][13]. - Disney's direct-to-consumer segment saw an 8% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $6.25 billion, with subscriber numbers for Disney+ and Hulu surpassing expectations [14]. - The company anticipates double-digit growth in adjusted earnings per share for the new fiscal year and plans to increase its stock buyback program to $7 billion [15]. Banking Sector - Major banks, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, saw declines in their stock prices, with JPMorgan down over 3% and Goldman Sachs nearly 4% [9][8]. - Financial institutions have warned that the Federal Reserve may need to take measures to address liquidity issues in the short-term financing market, potentially including increasing loan supply or directly purchasing securities [8]. Technology Sector - Tesla's stock dropped over 6%, while other major tech stocks also experienced declines, including Nvidia down over 3%, Google and Amazon nearly 3%, and Microsoft down over 1% [9][10].
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-11-13 23:12
Bank of America asked a federal judge to throw out a proposed class-action lawsuit accusing the company of aiding in Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking scheme https://t.co/20OoRFq8xk ...
美国银行研究报告:四分之一美家庭陷入“月光”困境
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-11-13 23:09
美国银行研究所近日发布的分析报告显示,四分之一的美国家庭正过着"月光"生活。研究人员梳理了其 数百万客户的内部数据,追踪他们在食品杂货、住房、汽油、育儿和水电等必需品上的支出情况。 (文章来源:央视新闻) 研究发现,约25%的家庭将超过95%的收入用于这些必需品开支,几乎没有剩余资金用于外出就餐、度 假等额外消费,更加没有储蓄。报告指出,通胀压力超过工资增长造成中低收入家庭收支难以平衡。 ...