Core Viewpoint - The risk of a government collapse in France has been absorbed by the market, which does not undermine the strong performance of European stocks relative to U.S. stocks over the past two decades [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Top strategists from Wall Street indicate that the political crisis in France is already factored into market expectations, suggesting a resilient outlook for European equities [1] - Citigroup strategist Beata Mancy notes that while it is easy to call for a "sell-off in Europe" due to political crises, the fundamentals have already accounted for pessimistic scenarios [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - Goldman Sachs strategist Sharon Bell states that the current political crisis in Paris is not expected to impact growth, as it falls within the range of market expectations [1] - The long-term profit outlook for Europe has improved, which has contributed to the resilience of the stock market despite increased tariffs from the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup strategists recommend investors to increase bets on a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve and a weakening dollar due to potential threats to the Federal Reserve's independence from President Trump [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Strategists, including Adam Pickett and Dirk Willer, suggest a slight increase in steepening yield curve trades, betting that 30-year Treasuries will underperform 5-year Treasuries [1] - They also recommend going long on the euro against the dollar through derivatives [1] Group 2: Market Concerns - Concerns regarding the weakening of the Federal Reserve's independence are expected to manifest primarily through a weaker dollar and a steepening yield curve [1] - Citigroup had already positioned for this trade in May, anticipating that Trump's tax cuts would increase government debt, thereby putting pressure on long-term Treasuries [1] Group 3: Political Influence - Trump's push to remove a Federal Reserve governor and potentially exert greater influence over regional Federal Reserve banks reinforces the logic behind the steepening yield curve trade [1] - The risk of Trump's intervention may undermine the Federal Reserve's credibility in combating inflation, leading to higher long-term Treasury yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has proposed adding silver and five other minerals to the 2025 critical minerals list, which could lead to the imposition of import tariffs on silver, potentially up to 50% [1][4]. Group 1: Proposal and Implications - The USGS's draft proposal includes copper, silicon, silver, and potassium, stating these resources are vital for the U.S. economy and national security [1]. - The proposal is open for public comment for 30 days following its publication in the Federal Register [1]. - Citigroup notes that this expands the scope of the Section 232 investigation to 56 metals and minerals, indicating a significant regulatory shift [1][5]. Group 2: Market Impact and Price Forecast - Citigroup's analysts believe that if the U.S. imposes tariffs of up to 50%, the price spread for silver will significantly widen, with a bullish price target of $43 per ounce in the next 6-12 months [3][5]. - The current exchange for physical silver and palladium futures is undervalued at a premium of only 2-3%, not reflecting the potential tariff risks adequately [1][5]. Group 3: Strategic Position of Silver - Silver's strategic importance is increasing due to dual demand from industrial and investment sectors, reinforcing its price support as the U.S. seeks to reduce import dependency [4]. - The U.S. currently relies on imports for 64% of its silver, and the potential tariffs could create significant arbitrage opportunities in COMEX silver futures [5]. Group 4: Broader Implications for Other Metals - Palladium is also facing dual tariff risks due to an anti-dumping investigation and the critical minerals Section 232 inquiry, which could impact its pricing [6]. - Other industrial metals like nickel, zinc, tin, and lead are also at risk of rising premiums due to tariff concerns, as U.S. importers may rush to procure supplies to avoid tariffs [6].

Group 1 - Citigroup analysts indicate that the price gap between U.S. palladium and silver and international benchmark prices is too small, considering the tariff risks on key minerals [1] - Earlier this year, U.S. precious metal futures prices surged above the benchmark London spot prices due to traders' expectations of tariffs on imports, leading to significant profits for those who predicted U.S. trade policies accurately [1] - Following the exemption of palladium, platinum, and silver from tariffs in April, the price differentials significantly decreased [1] Group 2 - Silver has been added to the U.S. list of 54 critical minerals dependent on imports, pending a review under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows tariffs on goods deemed vital to national security [3] - Citigroup forecasts that certain metals on the list may face specific tariffs of up to 50% upon the release of the Section 232 report in October [3] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into unrefined palladium from Russia, suggesting that this precious metal, used in catalytic converters, may be impacted by tariffs [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup strategists recommend investors increase bets on underperforming long-term U.S. Treasuries and a declining dollar due to potential threats to the Federal Reserve's political independence from President Trump [1][4] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Citigroup strategists suggest investors add a small position betting on 30-year Treasuries underperforming compared to 5-year Treasuries, anticipating a steepening yield curve as the yield spread widens [1] - The "curve steepening trade" was initiated in May, with expectations that Trump's tax cuts would lead to increased government debt, pressuring long-term Treasuries [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The yield curve has steepened recently, particularly after Fed Chair Powell hinted at potential rate cuts to support the labor market, benefiting short-term Treasuries while inflation and fiscal risks may push long-term yields higher [4] - The yield spread between 30-year and 5-year Treasuries reached its highest level since 2001, exacerbated by Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's ability to control inflation and its independence [4] Group 3: Currency Outlook - Citigroup strategists express surprise at the dollar's resilience amid potential restructuring risks within the Fed, attributing this to renewed fiscal concerns in France, but believe it will not significantly weaken demand for the euro [4]

中原按揭董事总经理王美凤表示，2025年7月香港银行转按登记共录得586宗，环比上升1.4%，连续两个月出 现增幅，以宗数计是自2024年5月以来的14个月新高。综合前七个月来看，转按市场活跃度依然偏低，今年 首七个月累计转按登记为3,914宗，表现相比2024年同期回落32.9%。 王美凤指，今年首七个月的每月转按登记宗数均处于500多宗水平，介于513宗至586宗，反映今年转按市场 平稳，近月开始出现温和增长，但对比过往活跃时期一般环比达千多宗以上，仍属偏低水平，转按市场并未 活跃。 中原按揭研究部数据显示，2025年7月银行转按登记共录得586宗，环比上升1.4%，其中，中银香港录得155 宗登记，相比6月份增加13.1%，市占率达26.5%，环比增加2.8个百分点，重夺月度转按登记榜首之位。汇丰 银行录得110宗登记，排名第二，市占率约18.8%，环比回落5.6个百分点。 另一方面，恒生银行市占率为8.7%(51宗)，环比下跌0.3个百分点，排名第三。工银亚洲市占率为7.7%(45 宗)，环比上升1个百分点，排名第四。至于东亚银行、渣打银行、上海商业银行、信银国际、花旗银行及大 众银行分别位列第五至第 ...

据香港交易所披露，花旗集团对无锡药明康德新药开发股份有限公司 - H股的多头持仓比例于2025年8 月21日从5.12%降至4.11%。 ...

Team Restructuring - Citigroup is reshaping its UK, Europe, Middle East & Africa Debt Capital Markets team [1] - Citigroup hired Rob Cascarino from JPMorgan as part of the changes [1]

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克——此举受到法律质疑，并且库克 此后在一份声明中强调特朗普无权这么做，且她不会辞职。对于特朗普最新的这一威胁言论，华尔街分 析师们普遍认为，这与其说是针对库克本人，不如说是彻底针对美联储货币政策独立性。 如果库克离职，特朗普可能掌控四个美联储FOMC货币政策委员会席位，距离"彻底掌控美联储货币政 策"将更近一步。由于市场普遍预期特朗普将任命立场更为鸽派的人选接替库克，消息传出后，美元全 线走软，短期美债收益率下跌，在美联储独立性受到威胁之下，市场避险情绪以及对于高估值科技巨头 们的恐慌情绪大幅升温，推动避险资产黄金以及白银受到市场避险资金热切追捧，尤其是当前黄金现货 与期货价格距离创下历史新高可谓越来越近。。 黄金资产的市场结构层面，盛宝银行称，全球央行主导的官方部门买盘仍是市场的无声支柱，而各国储 备管理者们近期因"美国例外论"逐渐崩塌而倾向"多元化资产"与提升对制裁相关的韧性而增加了黄金与 白银配置。 独立溢价 "无论法律结果如何，信号都很明确：美联储所面临的来自特朗普政府的政治压力正在上升，随着时间 推移，它可能会在美国资产中引入一种所谓的" ...

Market Overview - On August 25, US stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones falling by 349.27 points to close at 45,282.47, a decrease of 0.77% [1] - The Nasdaq dropped by 47.24 points to 21,449.29, down 0.22%, while the S&P 500 fell by 27.59 points to 6,439.32, a decline of 0.43% [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance; Tesla rose by 1.94%, Google increased by over 1%, and Nvidia also gained over 1%. In contrast, Microsoft fell by 0.59%, Amazon by 0.39%, Apple by 0.26%, and Facebook by 0.2% [3] - Nvidia announced the launch of the Drive AGX Thor development kit, available for pre-order immediately and set to ship in September, aimed at accelerating the design, testing, and deployment of autonomous vehicles and smart transportation solutions [3] - Nvidia also launched the Jetson AGX Thor developer kit, specifically designed for robotics applications, with a starting price of $3,499, now available for global customers including those in China [3] - Intel stated that Trump's US stockholding plan poses business risks, and on August 22, Intel announced an agreement with the US federal government for an $8.9 billion investment to acquire 433.3 million shares of Intel common stock at $20.47 per share, representing 9.9% of the company [3] Banking Sector - Most bank stocks declined, with JPMorgan down 0.49%, Goldman Sachs down 0.45%, Citigroup down 0.31%, and Morgan Stanley down 0.25%. However, Bank of America rose by 0.04%, and Wells Fargo increased by over 1% [4] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight increase of 0.11%. Among popular Chinese stocks, Daqo New Energy rose by over 4%, Melco Resorts increased by over 3%, and NetEase gained over 2%. Conversely, Newegg fell by over 15%, DaJiang Cloud Warehouse dropped by over 9%, and Semtech declined by over 5% [4] Economic Indicators - According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders currently estimate an 84% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [5] - The London Stock Exchange was closed, while the other two major European indices reported declines, with the CAC40 index in Paris closing at 7,843.04, down 126.65 points or 1.59%, and the DAX index in Frankfurt closing at 24,273.12, down 89.97 points or 0.37% [5]