V i e w p o i n t | 07 Aug 2025 04:08:25 ET │ 11 pages China Economics Resilient Exports and Narrowing Tariff Gap CITI'S TAKE China's trade activities beat expectations in July, with exports accelerating to 7.2% YoY and imports rising 4.1% YoY. The exports improvement was broad-based but especially pronounced outside the US, and the strength concentrated in ICs and autos. Looking ahead, with neighboring countries now facing noticeably higher tariffs, China-RoW tariff differential will narrow meaningfully if ...

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of July 31 to August 6, 2025 [1][2]. Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 846,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [1]. - Aluminum billet production was 338 kt, showing a decrease of 1% WoW but an increase of 1% YoY [1]. - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 26.9 million tons (mnt), up 3.0% YoY, while aluminum billet production was 10.8 mnt, up 6.0% YoY [1]. Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory stood at 889 kt on August 7, 2025, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a 20% decrease YoY [1]. - Breakdown of inventory: - Social inventory: 704 kt (+3% WoW, -26% YoY) - Producers' inventory: 185 kt (-8% WoW, +9% YoY) [1]. - For aluminum ingots, total inventory was 637 kt (+3% WoW, -28% YoY) and for aluminum billets, it was 252 kt (-4% WoW, +10% YoY) [1]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 874 kt, increasing by 6% WoW and 2% YoY [2]. - Specific consumption figures: - Aluminum ingot consumption: 881 kt (+5% WoW, +2% YoY) - Aluminum billet consumption: 332 kt (+1% WoW, +1% YoY) [2]. - YTD apparent consumption reached 27.6 mnt, up 5.0% YoY [2]. Market Sentiment - The market expectation for demand recovery in the aluminum sector remains cautious, despite the increase in apparent consumption [1][2]. - The report suggests that the inventory data for aluminum ingots and billets is more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand [3]. Comparative Analysis - The current inventory levels are lower than those recorded during the same period in 2021-2022 and 2024, but higher than in 2023 on the lunar calendar [3]. - Apparent consumption levels are higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [5]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels as a key indicator of market demand and potential price movements in the aluminum sector [3]. - The aluminum sector is currently ranked highest in demand compared to other materials such as steel, copper, and thermal coal [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the report on the aluminum industry in China, highlighting production, inventory, and consumption trends.

Summary of Thermal Coal Production and Inventory in China Industry Overview - The report focuses on the thermal coal industry in China, specifically analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends and production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines during the week of July 31 to August 6, 2025 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total thermal coal output from the 100 sample mines was **12,135 kt**, reflecting a **0.1% decrease week-over-week (WoW)** but a **3.7% increase year-over-year (YoY)**. On a lunar calendar basis, output increased by **3.4% YoY** [2] - Breakdown of output by region: - Shanxi: **2,950 kt** (-0.3% WoW, +11.7% YoY, +11.3% lunar YoY) - Shaanxi: **3,620 kt** (+4.8% WoW, +0.9% YoY, +0.4% lunar YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **5,565 kt** (-2.8% WoW, +1.7% YoY, +1.5% lunar YoY) - Year-to-date (YTD) output for the sample mines reached **388 million tonnes (mnt)**, representing a **3.7% increase YoY** [2] Utilization Ratio - The overall utilization ratio of the sample mines was **89.9%**, a **0.1 percentage point (ppt) decrease WoW**, but a **3.2 ppt increase YoY**. On a lunar calendar basis, the increase was **3.0 ppt YoY** [3] - Regional utilization ratios: - Shanxi: **85.7%** (-0.3 ppt WoW, +9.0 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: **92.4%** (+4.2 ppt WoW, +0.8 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **90.6%** (-2.7 ppt WoW, +1.5 ppt YoY) [3] Inventory Levels - Total coal inventory in the sample mines was **3,206 kt** as of August 6, 2025, showing a **0.3% decrease WoW** and a **2.4% increase YoY**. On a lunar calendar basis, the increase was **2.0% YoY** [4] - Regional inventory levels: - Shanxi: **892 kt** (-0.3% WoW, +6.2% YoY) - Shaanxi: **699 kt** (+4.2% WoW, -10.6% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **1,615 kt** (-2.1% WoW, +7.0% YoY) [4] Additional Insights - The report indicates a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the thermal coal sector, despite some positive year-over-year production figures [1] - The pecking order of demand for various materials in the market is noted as: aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement [1] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the thermal coal production and inventory report, highlighting trends in production, utilization, and inventory levels across key regions in China.

Group 1 - Citigroup completed a significant share purchase of 225,000 shares at an average price of HKD 417.24 per share, totaling approximately HKD 939 million, increasing its total holdings to 63.49 million shares, representing 5% of the issued shares [1] - This increase in shareholding positions Citigroup as the second-largest shareholder, just behind the Hong Kong SAR government, which holds 5.9% [1] - The shareholding structure of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is relatively dispersed, with a high proportion of institutional investors, and Citigroup's actions have altered the dynamics among major shareholders [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant increase in trading volume and activity this year, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding the total for the previous year [3] - The average daily trading amount for Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 240.2 billion in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 118%, marking the highest level since 2010 [3] - The profitability of HKEX is highly correlated with trading volume and turnover, and Citigroup's increased shareholding aligns with the improved fundamentals of the exchange [3]

Group 1 - The global gold market is experiencing significant changes due to increasing economic uncertainty, weakening dollar credibility, and rising geopolitical risks, with central banks actively increasing gold reserves, particularly China playing a crucial role [2][10] - UBS Wealth Management maintains an optimistic outlook for gold, setting a target price of $4000 per ounce, with potential for even higher prices if geopolitical or economic conditions worsen [2] - Citibank, traditionally bearish on gold, has revised its three-month gold price forecast from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, acknowledging previously underestimated short-term risks [2] Group 2 - CITIC Futures reports a shift in market sentiment towards gold due to weak U.S. non-farm data and stock market reversals, suggesting a return to a pricing logic of a weakening U.S. economy and a potential restart of the interest rate cut cycle [3] - As of August 6, spot gold prices fluctuated around $3300 per ounce after reaching a historical high of $3500 per ounce in April, influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data [5][7] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for nine consecutive months, marking the longest period of sustained purchases in recent years, driven by the need to optimize international reserve structures [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup Inc. has increased its stake in Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) by acquiring 225,000 shares for approximately HKD 93.8594 million, raising its total holdings to 63.4947 million shares, which represents 5% of the company, making it the second-largest shareholder after the Hong Kong SAR government [1][3]. Group 1: Shareholding Structure - The largest shareholder of HKEX is the Hong Kong SAR government, holding 5.9% of the shares, while Citigroup is the second-largest shareholder with 5% [3]. - Other significant shareholders include various mutual funds such as E Fund, GF Fund, and Huaxia Fund, which hold HKEX shares through multiple fund types, including actively managed funds and passive index funds [3]. - E Fund's two funds, managed by Zhang Kun, have maintained their holdings in HKEX, while other funds like E Fund Hong Kong Securities ETF have reduced their positions [3]. Group 2: Market Activity and Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has seen increased activity this year, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding the total for the previous year, and IPO financing returning to the top globally [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs and other foreign investment banks have repeatedly raised their target prices for HKEX, with Goldman Sachs recently increasing its target price from HKD 450 to HKD 500 per share, based on better-than-expected average daily trading volumes [4][5]. Group 3: Earnings and Growth Potential - HKEX's earnings model is highly dependent on trading volume and transaction value growth, with the average daily trading amount reaching HKD 240.2 billion in the first half of the year, a significant year-on-year increase of 118% [5]. - Potential catalysts for earnings improvement include the A+H share listing boom, the strengthening of Hong Kong's status as an international financial center, and continued inflows from southbound funds [6].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has increased its stake in Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX), becoming the second-largest shareholder after the Hong Kong government, indicating strong confidence in the exchange's future performance [1][4]. Group 1: Shareholding Changes - Citigroup acquired an additional 225,000 shares of HKEX at an average price of HKD 417.24 per share, totaling approximately HKD 93.86 million, raising its total holdings to 63.49 million shares, which is 5% of the company [1][4]. - The largest shareholder remains the Hong Kong government with a 5.9% stake, while Citigroup surpasses JPMorgan Chase, which reduced its stake to 3.53% after selling 44.53 million shares last year [4]. Group 2: Market Activity and Fund Involvement - The Hong Kong stock market has seen increased activity this year, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding the total for the previous year, and IPO financing returning to the top globally [2][4]. - Various asset management firms, including E Fund and GF Fund, hold shares in HKEX through multiple fund types, with differing strategies regarding their holdings [4]. Group 3: Analyst Upgrades and Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs has repeatedly raised its target price for HKEX, most recently increasing it by 11% to HKD 500 per share, based on better-than-expected trading volume [6]. - The average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 240.2 billion in the first half of the year, a significant year-on-year increase of 118%, marking the highest level since 2010 [6]. - Potential catalysts for profit improvement include the surge in A+H share listings, the strengthening of Hong Kong's status as an international financial center, and continued inflows from southbound funds [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lower the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% in the upcoming decision [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Citigroup economist Faraz Syed indicates that the overall tone of the upcoming statement may be neutral with a slight dovish inclination [1] - Forecast revisions suggest a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in the inflation rate by 2026, which may lead to a more dovish tone compared to previous statements [1]

Flash | 04 Aug 2025 10:40:09 ET │ 8 pages China Insurance VAT on Bond Interest Restored for Newly Issued Gov't/financial Bonds; Modest Impact CITI'S TAKE MoF announced the restoration of VAT on government/financial bonds' interests from Aug 8th. For listed insurers, we expect overall impact to be modest and manageable, as: 1) only newly issued bonds are subject to VAT, where Rmb5.66 would be deducted for every Rmb100 interest income (equivalent to a 10bps cut for a 10-year gov't bond at 1.70%), vs. liabilit ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the reinstatement of Value-Added Tax (VAT) on interest income from government and financial bonds in China, effective from August 8, 2025. This marks a significant shift in the fixed income taxation landscape in China [3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Objective of VAT Reinstatement**: The primary aim of reinstating VAT is to improve the bond pricing mechanism. This change is expected to simplify the pricing of tax-paying credit bonds against sovereign yields [4][6]. 2. **Revenue Generation**: A secondary goal is to increase government revenue amid declining fiscal capacity. The VAT exemption previously aimed to support bond market development is now being adjusted to enhance revenue collection [5][6]. 3. **Fiscal Context**: China's budget revenue growth was only 1.3% year-on-year in 2024, down from 6.4% in 2023, indicating a need for broader fiscal revenue channels due to rising government leverage ratios [5][6]. 4. **Estimated Revenue Impact**: The additional VAT revenue is estimated to be approximately RMB 4.2 billion for the current year and RMB 38.7 billion for 2026, which is relatively small compared to the total budget revenue of RMB 21.9 trillion [6][8]. 5. **Cost Implications for Government Finance**: The reinstatement of VAT is likely to increase the cost of government financing, as new bond yields may rise, affecting both investors and issuers [7][8]. Additional Important Points 1. **Market Dynamics**: The move could potentially reduce speculative trading and help contain short-term market volatility if capital gains tax is reinstated in the future [4]. 2. **Bond Issuance Projections**: New government and financial bond issuance is projected to be around RMB 16.5 trillion from August to December 2025, with an average coupon rate of 1.75% [6][8]. 3. **Impact on Existing Bonds**: The August 8 cutoff date will likely favor existing bonds, while newly issued bonds may face higher interest rates due to the tax burden [7]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the implications of the VAT reinstatement on China's bond market and fiscal landscape.