智通财经7月8日电，英特尔涨近5%，消息上，花旗集团将英特尔的目标价从21美元调整到24美元，维 持中立评级。 ...

尽管特朗普政府再次发出关税威胁，但华尔街对美国股市的信心似乎并未动摇，反而日益增强。 高盛本周加入了摩根大通、巴克莱、花旗和德意志银行的行列，成为最新一家上调标普500指数年终目标的投行。以David Kostin为首的高盛策略 师团队在周一发布的报告中，将标普500指数的年底目标从6100点上调至6600点。这是高盛自5月以来第二次上调该指数目标，如果最新预测准 确，意味着美国股市在年底前还有5.9%的上涨空间。 这一轮乐观情绪的出现，正值特朗普对多个贸易伙伴发出征收高额关税的威胁。据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普7日表示，将从8月1日起分别对来自 日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。 尽管白宫暗示最新的关税提议仍有谈判空间，但自四月初以来密集的贸易公告已给企业高管和投资者的前景蒙上阴影。然而，市场对此的反应却 相对平淡，凸显出投资者对特朗普式关税言论的"脱敏"倾向。策略师们指出，上调预期的主要驱动力来自对美联储将更早降息的判断、随之而来 的美国国债收益率走低，以及美国大型企业持续展现的强劲实力。 经济韧性与联储预期成压舱石 投行集体转向乐观，其背后是多重因素的支撑。 高盛的团队同时将标 ...

当市场屏息等待美联储降息信号之际，一份关键文件——美联储纪要会议纪要正悄然改写预期。 据追风交易台消息，花旗7月7日研报显示，即将公布的美联储6月17-18日会议纪要将释放比预期更为鸽派的信号，降息"观望期"可能在夏末结束。 尽管鲍威尔在6月利率决议后的新闻发布会上保持中性立场，但随后多位美联储官员释放鸽派信号，市场对即将公布的会议纪要抱有更多降息预期。近日 立场偏鹰派的美联储理事鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）已转向支持7月降息的可能性，理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）也表示可能支持7月降息。 现在花旗认为，经济前景不确定性降低，5月会议纪要的措辞将需要调整。该段落可能会被修改为： 在考虑货币政策前景时，与会者一致认为，鉴于经济增长和劳动力市场依然稳固，且当前货币政策适度限制性，委员会处于有利位置，可以等 待通胀和经济活动前景的进一步明朗。与会者一致认为，经济前景的不确定性进一步增加，因此在美国政府一系列政策变化的净经济影响变得 更加清晰之前采取谨慎态度是合适的。 与此同时，数据显示，截至2025年6月，美联储最爱的通胀指标——美国核心PCE物价指数同比涨幅已连续三个月低于2%的目标阈 ...

V i e w p o i n t | Taiwan – Jun headline likely benefit from TWD appreciation as it helps lower import prices at 1.6%YoY. We see exports at 21%YoY. Asia Economics & Strategy Daily Strategy Comments; Strategy Week Ahead (July 7-July 13); CN Supply Side Reform 2.0 CITI'S TAKE EM Asia Strategy Comments: Singapore; EM Strategy Weekly; Take Profit on USDIDR Put Spreads; CN Supply Side Reform 2.0; KR Timeline of Corporate Governance Reform; Upcoming events (US Independence Day): JP Real Household Spending, PH Ju ...

V i e w p o i n t | 02 Jul 2025 06:16:49 ET │ 9 pages China Economics Steady Growth into the Summer – June/Q2 Data Preview CITI'S TAKE We maintain our growth forecast at a steady 5.2%YoY for 25Q2E, though June's monthly indicators could be more mixed. Given the strong outturn in 25H1, we see firm policy determination to meet the GDP target this year despite little urgency to strike the policy put soon. Our policy expectations on the upcoming Politburo meeting are thus realistically muted (see: 25H2 Outlook: ...

V i e w p o i n t | 2. Negative news: 02 Jul 2025 23:09:28 ET │ 17 pages Asia Economics & Strategy Daily Strategy: EM Impact as 90d Tariff Deadline Nears; CN Data; IN Potential Trade Deal CITI'S TAKE EM Asia Strategy Comments: US -Vietnam trade deal – implications for rest of EM Asia as we approach the 90-day tariff exemption deadline; JP Economic Indicator Forecast; CN Data Preview; Potential India-US Trade Deal; KR Second Supplementary Budget May be Cut; July BoK MPB Preview; Upcoming events: EA Service P ...

V i e w p o i n t | 03 Jul 2025 22:20:36 ET │ 10 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (9): Steady into Liberation Day 2.0 CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Jul 2nd . Shipping to the US had a few volatile weeks but managed to rebound lately, and the tentative trough for US-China trade could still hold, in our view. Overall cargo throughput grew at a slower pace in the past week. We forecast China's headline exports growth at 3.3%YoY for June. As the RoW comes to ...

V i e w p o i n t | 03 Jul 2025 11:49:54 ET │ 10 pages US Economics Falling imports from China offset elsewhere CITI'S TAKE The trade balance widened moderately in May to -$71.5 billion with a drop in exports and imports essentially flat on the month. Part of the drop in exports was due to gold, which will not impact GDP growth. Net exports are still likely to be a substantial boost to GDP growth in Q2. Imports from China continued to plunge as tariffs in April and half of May were prohibitively high. This ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the economic and trade dynamics in Emerging Asia, focusing on the implications of the 90-day tariff deadline and its potential outcomes for various countries including China, Japan, India, and South Korea [2][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Deadline Scenarios**: The 90-day tariff pause is set to expire on July 9, with three potential outcomes: - Announce deals/frameworks with some trade partners - Extend deadlines with certain partners - Set new tariff rates for remaining partners [2][5]. 2. **Base Case Scenario**: The most likely outcome is an extension of the current status quo, maintaining a 10% baseline tariff for a longer period. This scenario suggests limited market reactions, with a slight risk-on sentiment but constrained upside [3][5]. 3. **Bull Case Scenario**: If trade deals are announced, effective tariffs may decrease, leading to a more optimistic market outlook. This could result in equities outperforming and a stronger performance from export-oriented currencies like KRW and TWD [6][9]. 4. **Bear Case Scenario**: If tariffs increase significantly, particularly above 15%, it could lead to a risk-off market reaction, with a stronger USD and concerns about global growth impacting Asia FX negatively [7][9]. 5. **Market Reactions**: The actual announcements regarding tariffs may be complex, potentially incorporating elements from all scenarios. The focus will remain on effective tariff rates and the risks of subsequent increases, alongside ongoing diversification from USD overweight positions [8][9]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Japan's Industrial Production**: Japan's industrial production increased by 0.5% MoM in May, which was below expectations. Companies are reportedly curbing production in anticipation of potential negative impacts from US tariffs [11]. 2. **China's Economic Indicators**: Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in China exceeded expectations in June, indicating continued growth momentum. However, domestic demand, particularly in property sales, may be waning [11][12]. 3. **India's Trade Dynamics**: Reciprocal tariffs have led to a front-loading of exports to the US, with a notable 25% YoY increase in Indian exports to the US from January to May 2025. However, this has not improved the overall trade balance due to a decline in exports to other regions [12]. 4. **South Korea's GDP Forecast**: The GDP forecast for South Korea has been adjusted downwards for Q2 2025 to 0.3% QoQ, but expectations for Q3 and Q4 have been revised upwards due to anticipated recovery in consumption and positive fiscal measures [12]. 5. **Inflation and Interest Rate Forecasts**: The report includes projections for inflation and interest rates across various countries in the region, indicating a cautious outlook for monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in Emerging Asia.

V i e w p o i n t | 01 Jul 2025 23:10:31 ET │ 12 pages India Economics Likely Contours of an India-US Trade Deal CITI'S TAKE Although clarity is still limited, we outline factors to watch in a potential India-US trade deal. The pre-July 09 trade deal could act as a broad framework until a comprehensive deal before the QUAD summit (October/November). [1] For manufactured goods, it's unclear whether it would be "zero-for-zero" tariffs or the 10% baseline US tariff stays. [2] Gradual multi-year or immediate re ...