Group 1 - Gold prices have surged as market participants seek safe-haven assets amid declining stock prices of major tech companies, with spot gold reaching around $3,350 per ounce [1] - The anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has contributed to the rise in gold prices, with futures traders estimating a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - Major banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have shifted their outlooks, with Goldman predicting gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 due to strong central bank demand and ETF inflows [5][7] Group 2 - The recent deterioration in U.S. non-farm payroll data is seen as a strong catalyst for rising gold prices, with Morgan Stanley projecting a target price of $3,675 per ounce by year-end and potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce early next year [7] - Citigroup has revised its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, citing a significant decline in economic growth outlook and inflation concerns [6] - The overall sentiment in the market is leaning towards bullish for gold, driven by fears of economic slowdown and expectations of a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy [2][3]

特朗普再催美联储降息 尽管最新公布的美联储货币政策会议纪要呈现出鹰派立场，但是特朗普本人呼吁美联储理事库克辞职的呼声——库克若真的顶不住压力辞职，将在美联储理 事会留下一个新的空缺有利于特朗普进一步安插支持降息的理事候选人，加之他近期再度呼吁鲍威尔立即推动降息进程且高调表示获得他提名的下一任美联 储主席以及新的美联储理事必须是支持降息的立场，无疑助力关于美联储降息的市场鸽派预期大幅升温。 美联储7月的FOMC货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储的中性货币政策立场获得更加广泛支持，只有两名持异议者支持降息进程。会议纪要显示，尽管对于通 胀和劳动力市场疲软的担忧日益加剧，但是绝大多数政策制定者认为现在降息为时过早。两位美联储理事持不同意见，支持降息，此举意味着30多年来首次 多名理事反对一项货币政策决定。 智通财经APP获悉，在即将举行的杰克逊霍尔全球央行研讨会之前，黄金期货与现货价格在美股市场的科技巨头们股价持续回调之际均重拾涨势。尤其是在 周三美股交易时间段，标普500指数与纳斯达克100指数因科技巨头们股价下行而连续两日疲软之际，市场避险情绪显著升温推动黄金现货价格走高至3350美 元这一超级关口附近，并且金价还得 ...

I'm not sure the outcome will ever become public, Matt, but what we do know is that, you know, at least six managing directors at Cityroup complained about Sie's behavior. We're talking about exp >> managing directors. >> Managing directors.Yeah. Yeah. Managing directors in particular.One of the focus of their complaints was his behavior towards senior female executives at the firm, including Idelu, you know, one of Cityroup's most prominent executives who suddenly left the firm in January of this year. She ...

Citi Investigated HR Complaints Against Wealth Head Sieg. Listen for more on Bloomberg Intelligence. https://t.co/Cxbi2Us61V ...

Legal & Compliance - Citi hired a law firm to investigate complaints about the behavior of wealth-management chief Andy Sieg [1]

Citi hired a law firm to investigate complaints about the behavior of its wealth-management chief Andy Sieg. https://t.co/J3xNZXywPo ...

Key Takeaways The investment bank industry has gained 41.5% in the past year and 21.4% year to date. Goldman, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Evercore, and Interactive Brokers are top buy picks for 2025.AI adoption, strong pipelines, and strategic expansions support growth across these firms.The investment bank industry has flourished in 2025 driven by increased client activities, a rebound in underwriting and advisory businesses and the massive application of artificial intelligence (AI) boosting long-term efficiency ...

Core Insights - Citigroup's subsidiary, Citibank N.A., reported an increase in credit card trust delinquency rates for July 2025, although these rates remain below pre-pandemic levels [1][2]. Credit Card Metrics - The delinquency rate for Citibank's Credit Card Issuance Trust rose to 1.42% in July 2025 from 1.38% in June 2025, still lower than the 1.53% recorded in July 2019 [2][10]. - The net charge-off rate decreased to 2.07% in July from 2.12% in June, significantly lower than the 2.91% seen in July 2019 [2][10]. - Principal receivables in the trust fell to $20.7 billion in July from $20.9 billion in June [2][10]. Net Credit Loss and Provisions - The company's net credit loss (NCL) experienced a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% over the four years ending in 2024, with a 2% year-over-year increase in the first half of 2025 [3]. - Provisions for credit losses saw a CAGR of 38.9% from 2022 to 2024, with this upward trend continuing into the first half of 2025 [3]. Future Outlook - Citigroup's profitability may be challenged by rising credit losses in its Branded Cards portfolio, with projected NCL rates between 3.50% and 4% in 2025 [4]. - Economic conditions could further weaken, leading to accelerated losses and increased loan-loss provisions, which would pressure earnings [4][5]. Industry Comparison - In July 2025, U.S. credit card delinquency rates were mixed, with Capital One's rate rising to 3.67% and JPMorgan's to 0.86% [6][7]. - Capital One's net charge-off rate decreased to 4.83%, while JPMorgan's dropped to 1.54% [6][7]. Price Performance and Valuation - Citigroup's shares have increased by 36.6% year-to-date, outperforming the industry's growth of 23.2% [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Citigroup's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates year-over-year increases of 27.4% and 27.7%, respectively, with upward revisions in estimates over the past 60 days [13]. - Citigroup trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.57X, below the industry's average of 14.47X [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation and consumer prices in the U.S., highlighting that the expected transmission of tariff costs to consumer prices has not been as severe as anticipated, with companies absorbing costs to maintain profit margins [2][4][6]. Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight increase, but remains below expectations, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly rose [2]. - Some industries severely affected by tariffs have seen price surges, yet July data indicates a relief in price pressures for certain goods, while service sectors are experiencing increased price pressures [2]. - JPMorgan's report suggests that companies are absorbing tariff costs at the expense of profit margins, with current profit margins at historical highs allowing for cost absorption without damaging capital or operational budgets [2][4]. Group 2: Tariff Rates and Consumer Impact - Barclays reports that the actual weighted average tariff rate in May was only 9%, lower than the previously estimated 12%, indicating that the impact of tariffs may be less than expected [2][4]. - The article notes that over half of U.S. imported goods benefited from tax exemptions, which has shifted demand away from high-tariff countries [3]. - Citi Research has not found significant evidence of widespread price pressure from tariffs, attributing recent service price increases to one-time factors [5]. Group 3: Future Projections and Economic Implications - Despite potential future tariff increases, Citi's chief economist predicts that consumers will not face significant price hikes due to weakening demand, which limits companies' ability to pass on costs [6]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that consumers will bear a larger share of tariff costs, with the proportion expected to rise from 22% to 67% if current trade policies continue [6]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the extent of tariff impacts on inflation for the Federal Reserve, as persistent inflation above the 2% target complicates monetary policy decisions [7].

V i e w p o i n t | 14 Aug 2025 20:20:43 ET │ 10 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (15): Tariff Reescalation Risk Defused for Now CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Aug 13th . Tail risks on US-China tariff reescalation should have been largely defused for now, with the truce officially extended to mid-November (MOFCOM, Aug 12th). China's overall cargo throughput recovered to 6.8%YoY in the week ending Aug 10th, with month-to-date volume trending at 3~5%YoY. C ...