Citi Research Investing in 2026 Themes and Trades | Goldilocks | A Dovish Fed | Higher Inflation | Early USD Strength | A European Upturn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Scott Chronert | Jason Williams | Risk Premium | Daniel Tobon | Beata Manthey | | Drew Pettit | Gisela Young | Raghav Datla | Brian Levine | David Groman | | Patrick Galvin | Mike Chang | | Osamu Takashima | Jamie Searle | | Charlie Massy-Collier | | | Rohit Garg | Arnaud Mares | | Philip Dobrinov | | | Johanna Chua | | | Maximilian J L ...

摩根大通的预测则更为乐观。该行预计到2026年第四季度金价将达到5000美元，长期甚至看向6000美元。摩根大通全球大宗商品策略主管Natasha Kaneva 在12月18日的报告中强调："推动金价重估的趋势尚未耗尽。"她认为，尽管涨势不会呈线性，但在贸易不确定性和地缘风险持续的背景下，央行和投资者 的多元化配置需求将继续推高金价。 ING分析师亦在1月6日的报告中指出，央行购金行为以及对美联储进一步降息的预期，构成了金价上涨的坚实基础。 华尔街大行再掀贵金属看涨潮，花旗集团激进上调短期目标价，直指金价5000美元大关。 据花旗集团最新发布的报告，鉴于地缘政治风险加剧、实物短缺以及市场对美联储独立性再次出现不确定性，该行大幅上调了对贵金属的短期展望。包括 Max Layton在内的分析师团队在电邮报告中表示，在牛市情景下，将未来0-3个月的黄金目标价从每盎司4200美元上调至5000美元，白银目标价则从每盎 司62美元大幅上调至100美元。 花旗指出，"投资势头依然强劲，众多利好因素现可能继续保持"在第一季度。分析师特别提到，由于美国232条款关税决定可能延迟，白银和铂族金属的 持续实物短缺问题在短期内可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup is implementing a restructuring plan that includes cutting 1,000 jobs this week, part of a broader initiative to eliminate 20,000 jobs by the end of 2026, with several thousand more cuts still needed to meet this target [1][2]. Group 1: Job Cuts and Restructuring - Citigroup announced plans to cut 1,000 jobs as part of a restructuring effort initiated two years ago [1]. - The bank aims to eliminate a total of 20,000 jobs by the end of 2026, with several thousand more cuts required to achieve this goal [2]. - The restructuring is intended to align staffing levels, locations, and expertise with current business needs and efficiencies gained through technology [2]. Group 2: Organizational Changes - In September 2023, Citigroup began a major restructuring that would reduce management layers and elevate leaders of its five core businesses [2]. - CEO Jane Fraser emphasized the bank's commitment to delivering its full potential through bold decisions and organizational changes [3]. - In November 2023, Citigroup announced further organizational changes to align with a simplified operating model [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Citigroup reported record quarterly revenues across all five core businesses, achieving a 9% revenue growth in the third quarter of 2025, marking its best performance in a decade [4]. - Investments in new products, digital assets, and AI are driving innovation and enhancing the bank's competitive capabilities [5]. - Despite previous performance lagging behind other major U.S. lenders, Citigroup's share price increased by 66% in 2025, outperforming all other major banks [5].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming bond issuance by Wall Street's financial giants is expected to be significantly larger than in previous periods due to pressure from the Trump administration, which may lead to a liquidity drain from the market and potential corrections in the stock and corporate bond markets [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Wall Street's "Big Six" financial giants, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, are anticipated to lead a busy investment-grade bond issuance week, with estimates around $60 billion [2]. - Barclays predicts that approximately $35 billion of bond issuance this month will come from these six financial giants, potentially rising to $55 billion by the end of the quarter [1][2]. - The issuance of high-rated bonds often creates short-term "supply pressure," which can tighten financial conditions and lead to a technical rise in credit spreads and liquidity premiums in the bond market [2]. Group 2: Impact of Regulatory Changes - Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% could significantly impact the profitability of the "Big Six," prompting them to issue bonds to cover potential losses from this regulatory pressure [4][5]. - The credit card business is a major profit center for these banks, with current rates around 21%, and a cap would compress their margins significantly [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that if the cap is implemented, banks may respond by tightening credit, reducing limits, or increasing fees, which could lead to a contraction in supply and a recovery of profitability pressure [6]. Group 3: Earnings Season and Market Expectations - The earnings season for major Wall Street banks is set to begin, with expectations that they will demonstrate strong performance, which is crucial for maintaining the bullish outlook for the S&P 500 index in 2026 [3][8]. - Analysts predict that the "Big Six" will collectively report profits of up to $157 billion in 2025, marking the second-highest annual profit in history [7]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a constructive outlook for the banking sector, with expectations of continued growth in net interest income (NII) and resilience in capital markets and wealth management fees [9][10].

Group 1 - Citigroup plans to cut approximately 1,000 jobs this week as part of a broader strategy to reduce its workforce by 20,000 by the end of 2024 [1][3] - As of December 31, 2024, Citigroup had around 229,000 full-time employees [1] - The bank aims to continue reducing its headcount into 2026, indicating ongoing adjustments to align staffing with business needs [3] Group 2 - CEO Jane Fraser, who has been leading the company since 2021, is implementing changes to close the performance gap with competitors [4][7] - A plan presented in late 2023 focuses on increasing earnings, streamlining operations, and improving data governance and risk management [4] - Recent organizational changes have led to significant departures in the wealth and technology sectors, including the appointment of Gonzalo Luchetti as the new chief finance officer [4] Group 3 - Citigroup's US retail presence is notably smaller than that of its larger competitors, with approximately 650 branches located in six major metropolitan areas [5]

高评级发债规模往往会在一级市场吸收庞大资金，进而带来短期的"供给压力"很容易把金融条件收紧， 更直接的影响通常体现在信用利差/无风险利率的短期内技术性上行、以及债券市场流动性溢价上，因 此华尔街金融巨头们突然间的因某种压力而选择大规模集中发债可能成为股票市场、加密货币以及高收 益率公司债等风险资产的"边际逆风因素"。 债券交易员们视角中所谓的"Big Six / 华尔街六大金融巨头"通常指美国六家最具系统重要性的综合性商 业银行与投行集团，分别是：摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)、美国银行(Bank of America)、花旗集团 (Citigroup)、富国银行(Wells Fargo)、高盛(Goldman Sachs)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)。 美国股市财报季也将拉开帷幕，华尔街这些最大规模的金融巨头们将率先发布财报。因此本轮最新的美 股财报季不仅将是对华尔街这些金融巨头们对于美股2026年延续牛市的一致预期的重大考验——华尔街 分析师们普遍预期标普500指数将在2026年继续上演牛市轨迹且有望冲击8000点位，对于这些股价本就 因美股长期牛市氛围、投行业务复苏以及客户们股 ...

The fourth-quarter earnings season gets underway this week with the big banks set to report. BAC stock is moving. See the chart and price action here. The Big Six are expected to showcase a rebound in investment banking fees fueled by a 42% year-over-year surge in global M&A activity, according to Dealogic. Here's a look at the earnings calendar for the week ahead: Tuesday, Jan. 13Before Market Open:JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) kicks off the fourth-quarter earnings season with its report set to be releas ...

来源：喜娜AI 一、国际新闻 美国金融市场方面，周一美股三大股指收盘普涨，道指涨0.17%，纳指涨0.26%，标普涨0.16%，其中英 伟达、苹果微涨，谷歌涨超1%且市值首次突破4万亿美元，微软、亚马逊微跌，博通涨超2%，Meta跌 超1%，特斯拉涨近1%，沃尔玛涨超3%，甲骨文涨超3%[1]。 谷歌市值突破4万亿美元的背景是苹果选择其Gemini驱动今年推出的人工智能Siri[2][3]。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数表现强劲，收涨4.28%，金山云涨21.37%，1药网涨21.27%，知乎涨17.46%，逸 仙电商涨11.67%，好未来涨10.40%，盘中该指数一度涨超4%，成分股中知乎、金山云、阿里巴巴等多 只个股涨幅显著[4][5][6][7]。 大宗商品市场波动明显，贵金属方面，纽约期金曾突破4640美元/盎司，日内涨3.09%，但随后失守4600 美元/盎司，日内跌0.33%，进一步失守4590美元/盎司，日内跌0.58%；现货黄金同样先突破4620美元/盎 司，日内涨2.45%，之后失守4590美元/盎司，日内跌0.20%，再失守4580美元/盎司，日内跌0.39%[8][9] [10][11][12] ...

US stock futures tilted lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a pivotal inflation reading and for JPMorgan (JPM) results to kick off the fourth quarter earnings season. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) nudged 0.1% lower, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) hovered below the flat line. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were also little changed. On Monday, Wall Street stocks eked out fresh record closes as investors largely shrugged off concerns about Federal Reserve autonomy sparke ...

机构认为，短期技术性回调风险上升。 【财经日历】 美国2025年12月CPI 2026三亚.国际种业科学家大会暨国际种业科技博览会(1/13-1/16) 第四届中国石油和化工行业数字化转型智能化发展大会(北京,1/13-1/15) 财报发布：摩根大通 | 树 盘前必读 | // 外盘怎么样 // | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 淵鉄 | 涨跌幅 | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 49590.20 86.13 - | 0.17% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23733.90c 62.55 | 0.26% | | 标普500 | 6977.27 10.99 10 | 0.16% | 当地时间周一，美股小幅走高。截至收盘，道指涨0.17%，纳指涨0.26%，标普500指数涨0.16%。道指和标普联袂创收盘新高。 金融板块下跌超1%，在标普500指数各板块中领跌。美国总统特朗普宣布，将于1月20日起对信用卡年利率设置为期一年的10%上限，受此影响，贷款机构 及信用卡公司的股价承压下挫。美银跌1.2%，摩根大通跌1.4%，花旗跌近3%，美国运通跌4.2%。 沃尔玛涨3%，市场对其即将纳入纳斯 ...