在特朗普迈入其第二个总统任期的第一年，他和他的顾问团队正以罕见的速度和力度，着手改变美国经济在这数十年间的资金流动逻辑。 白宫发言人Kush Desai在一份声明中明确表示，特朗普总统承诺恢复美国作为世界上最具活力经济体的地位，并致力于削减束缚经济创造力的"繁文缛节"。随 着这些政策的逐步落地，从华尔街的交易大厅到普通美国人的401(k)退休账户，资本配置的底层逻辑正在发生深刻变化。 银行监管松绑与流动性释放 为了解决国债市场运作受限的问题，联邦银行监管机构已采取行动放松关键的资本规则。 根据监管层的计划，被称为"增强型补充杠杆率"（eSLR）的指标将 从5%下调，主要贷款机构的这一比率将降至3.5%至4.25%，其子公司的要求甚至更低。 这一变动将于2026年初生效，旨在激励银行向国债和其他政府支持的资产投入更多资金。据估计，这可能为JPMorgan Chase & Co.和Citigroup Inc.等大银行 的子公司释放高达2190亿美元的资本。作为对监管放松的回应，美国最大的四家银行在通过美联储年度压力测试后的第一个完整季度内，股票回购规模几乎翻 了一番，达到210亿美元，股息支付也增长了约10%。 ...

高盛团队由其首席经济学家简·哈祖斯领导，在上周给客户的一份报告中自认为相对于共识观点"更为乐 观"。该行预测美国2026年日历年均增长率为2.6%。在77家机构预测中，高盛的这一预测乐观程度排名 第四——若仅看华尔街投行，则位列第一。 智通财经APP获悉，在圣诞假期前发布的年度展望报告中，高盛和花旗的经济团队对美国经济前景的判 断形成了鲜明对比，讨论这种差异可能有助于思考2026年的经济走势。 花旗对此并不那么确信。他们估计额外退税规模更为温和，在300亿至500亿美元之间。该行也认为宽松 金融环境带来的支撑有限，并强调这些条件今年未能阻止失业率上升。 高盛团队这样表述："主要脆弱点仍然是美国劳动力市场的裂痕，如果就业疲软进入可能再次引发严重 衰退担忧的区间。" 关于不确定性降低的问题，花旗经济学家写道："几乎没有证据表明2025年下半年招聘放缓是由于贸易 或其他政策不确定性造成的。"疲软的就业市场是该行经济前景判断的关键，他们强调了疲弱的招聘和 工资增长数据。 花旗写道："我们的基本预期是，招聘将保持低迷，导致收入增长放缓，消费者支出持续减速。" 两家银行都认为美联储决策者将在2026年进一步降息，高盛预测 ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 23 Dec 2025 04:21:39 ET │ 16 pages Japan Economics Prospects for 2026：Will seeds of destabilization emerge amidst stability? CITI'S TAKE We expect Japan's GDP to grow at above-trend +1.0% in 2026, demonstrating resilience (albeit down modestly from +1.3% growth in 2025). As headline inflation temporarily falls below 2% and strong wage growth continues, headwinds facing purchasing power of consumers look likely to ease. We expect this situation to allow pass-throughs of rising costs to ser ...

Overall, the banking sector has had a decent year, with the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) up 31.6% in 2025, while the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) sports a 10.9% year-to-date gain. Individually, Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) is one of the best performing bank stocks, sporting a 70.4% year-to-date lead. It's safe to say the company's restructuring efforts, which started in late 2023, are paying off this year. The stock has been rallying since mid November with support from the ascending 10-day moving average. ...

Key Takeaways Citigroup earnings are expected to jump 32.3% in 2026, while BAC sees a more modest 14% earnings rise.C's cost-cutting, exits from 14 markets and AI adoption are likely to save $2-$2.5B in annual expenses by 2026Over six months, C stock jumped 45.6% vs. BAC's 19.8%, showing confidence in Citigroup's transformation plan.Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) are among the largest U.S. banks, heavily exposed to interest rate cycles, loan growth and global financial markets. They provide diversi ...

Core Viewpoint - The future performance of European and American bank stocks will increasingly depend on the sustainability of earnings rather than further valuation expansion [4]. Group 1: European Bank Stocks - European bank stocks have shown significant recovery in 2025, with the STOXX Europe 600 Banks index rising approximately 65% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing sectors in Europe [1]. - Analysts suggest that the rise in European bank stocks is more of a structural recovery rather than a typical cyclical rebound, as their valuation levels were significantly lower than their U.S. counterparts prior to this increase [2]. - The negative impact of the prolonged low-interest-rate environment on European banks' profitability has been a key factor suppressing their valuations [2]. - Major European banks have seen substantial stock price increases, with Deutsche Bank up about 97%, HSBC up approximately 48%, BNP Paribas up around 35%, and UBS up about 30% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: American Bank Stocks - American bank stocks have demonstrated more stable performance in 2025, with notable increases such as Citigroup up about 68%, Goldman Sachs up approximately 57%, and JPMorgan Chase up around 35% [5]. - The core strength of the U.S. banking system lies in its profitability and diversified business structure, which helps mitigate traditional credit cycle fluctuations [5]. - The valuation recovery for U.S. banks began earlier than for European banks, with the market already pricing in expectations of an economic soft landing and interest rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, the consensus is shifting from "valuation recovery" to "earnings verification," with European banks needing to see a substantial recovery in credit demand and a reduction in geopolitical risks to maintain their strong performance [6]. - In the U.S., the focus will be on the Federal Reserve's policy path, with large banks expected to maintain capital returns if interest rate cuts are gradual and the economy achieves a soft landing [6]. - The bank stock market in 2026 is expected to be more selective, requiring investors to pay closer attention to earnings quality, risk management, and structural differences between markets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the financial industry, highlighting that while AI has the potential to automate many jobs, the current wave of layoffs in banks is more a result of over-hiring during the pandemic and economic uncertainty rather than AI itself [1][2]. Group 1: AI and Job Market Dynamics - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, indicated that AI could significantly affect job categories, similar to past technological revolutions [1]. - A report from Citigroup found that 54% of financial jobs have a high potential for automation, the highest among all industries [1]. - Experts suggest that the layoffs in the banking sector are largely a distraction from other economic issues, such as weak consumer demand and past hiring mistakes [2]. Group 2: Employment Trends in Banking - Despite headlines about layoffs, the overall employment in the banking and financial sector remains stable, with some banks even increasing their workforce [4]. - For instance, Bank of America reduced its workforce by only 4 employees, while JPMorgan added 2,000 employees [4]. - Experts predict that banks will delay hiring and rely on AI to improve efficiency until they are forced to increase labor costs [4]. Group 3: MBA Graduates and Job Opportunities - Top MBA programs still show strong employment rates, with 92% of Columbia Business School graduates and 86% of NYU Stern graduates securing jobs [5]. - However, there is a noted decline in job placement rates among elite MBA programs since 2021, indicating a tightening job market [6]. Group 4: Job Security and Risks in Finance - Not all financial jobs are equally vulnerable to automation; roles requiring critical thinking and low tolerance for error, such as consulting and compliance, are less likely to be automated [7]. - Conversely, positions in accounting and marketing are expected to face significant challenges due to AI advancements [8]. - Approximately 76% of banks anticipate increasing their technology staff due to AI, while 73% of bank employees' tasks may be affected by generative AI [7].

But joining us right now is a guy who called it right last year. Jay Woods is the chief strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, also a CNBC contributor. Uh we wanted to talk to him because basically you said the market was going to be where it was right now.So I I shouldn't say how surprised were you because this was this was on your bingo card, Jay. >> Yeah, it uh played out the way we thought it would. Uh we thought the first half of the year would be a little you know problematic with the tariff implement ...

At the end of each year, the editorial staff at American Banker predicts who will have the biggest impact on the banking industry in the year ahead. For 2025, we chose 25 bankers, regulators, politicians, and execs in fintech, big tech, and payments — plus one pop superstar — and explained why we thought they would make a difference, positive or negative. Below, we examine whether we were right or wrong in each case. Processing ContentSee who we chose this year: 26 people who will change banking in 2026.  ...

Market Analysis by covering: Citigroup Inc, Abercrombie & Fitch Company, Barrick Mining Corp, Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...