V i e w p o i n t | 2. Negative news: 02 Jul 2025 23:09:28 ET │ 17 pages Asia Economics & Strategy Daily Strategy: EM Impact as 90d Tariff Deadline Nears; CN Data; IN Potential Trade Deal CITI'S TAKE EM Asia Strategy Comments: US -Vietnam trade deal – implications for rest of EM Asia as we approach the 90-day tariff exemption deadline; JP Economic Indicator Forecast; CN Data Preview; Potential India-US Trade Deal; KR Second Supplementary Budget May be Cut; July BoK MPB Preview; Upcoming events: EA Service P ...

V i e w p o i n t | 03 Jul 2025 22:20:36 ET │ 10 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (9): Steady into Liberation Day 2.0 CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Jul 2nd . Shipping to the US had a few volatile weeks but managed to rebound lately, and the tentative trough for US-China trade could still hold, in our view. Overall cargo throughput grew at a slower pace in the past week. We forecast China's headline exports growth at 3.3%YoY for June. As the RoW comes to ...

V i e w p o i n t | 03 Jul 2025 11:49:54 ET │ 10 pages US Economics Falling imports from China offset elsewhere CITI'S TAKE The trade balance widened moderately in May to -$71.5 billion with a drop in exports and imports essentially flat on the month. Part of the drop in exports was due to gold, which will not impact GDP growth. Net exports are still likely to be a substantial boost to GDP growth in Q2. Imports from China continued to plunge as tariffs in April and half of May were prohibitively high. This ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the economic and trade dynamics in Emerging Asia, focusing on the implications of the 90-day tariff deadline and its potential outcomes for various countries including China, Japan, India, and South Korea [2][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Deadline Scenarios**: The 90-day tariff pause is set to expire on July 9, with three potential outcomes: - Announce deals/frameworks with some trade partners - Extend deadlines with certain partners - Set new tariff rates for remaining partners [2][5]. 2. **Base Case Scenario**: The most likely outcome is an extension of the current status quo, maintaining a 10% baseline tariff for a longer period. This scenario suggests limited market reactions, with a slight risk-on sentiment but constrained upside [3][5]. 3. **Bull Case Scenario**: If trade deals are announced, effective tariffs may decrease, leading to a more optimistic market outlook. This could result in equities outperforming and a stronger performance from export-oriented currencies like KRW and TWD [6][9]. 4. **Bear Case Scenario**: If tariffs increase significantly, particularly above 15%, it could lead to a risk-off market reaction, with a stronger USD and concerns about global growth impacting Asia FX negatively [7][9]. 5. **Market Reactions**: The actual announcements regarding tariffs may be complex, potentially incorporating elements from all scenarios. The focus will remain on effective tariff rates and the risks of subsequent increases, alongside ongoing diversification from USD overweight positions [8][9]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Japan's Industrial Production**: Japan's industrial production increased by 0.5% MoM in May, which was below expectations. Companies are reportedly curbing production in anticipation of potential negative impacts from US tariffs [11]. 2. **China's Economic Indicators**: Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in China exceeded expectations in June, indicating continued growth momentum. However, domestic demand, particularly in property sales, may be waning [11][12]. 3. **India's Trade Dynamics**: Reciprocal tariffs have led to a front-loading of exports to the US, with a notable 25% YoY increase in Indian exports to the US from January to May 2025. However, this has not improved the overall trade balance due to a decline in exports to other regions [12]. 4. **South Korea's GDP Forecast**: The GDP forecast for South Korea has been adjusted downwards for Q2 2025 to 0.3% QoQ, but expectations for Q3 and Q4 have been revised upwards due to anticipated recovery in consumption and positive fiscal measures [12]. 5. **Inflation and Interest Rate Forecasts**: The report includes projections for inflation and interest rates across various countries in the region, indicating a cautious outlook for monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in Emerging Asia.

V i e w p o i n t | 01 Jul 2025 23:10:31 ET │ 12 pages India Economics Likely Contours of an India-US Trade Deal CITI'S TAKE Although clarity is still limited, we outline factors to watch in a potential India-US trade deal. The pre-July 09 trade deal could act as a broad framework until a comprehensive deal before the QUAD summit (October/November). [1] For manufactured goods, it's unclear whether it would be "zero-for-zero" tariffs or the 10% baseline US tariff stays. [2] Gradual multi-year or immediate re ...

Group 1 - Citi's International Business President, Ernesto Torres Cantú, expresses confidence in the Chinese market, highlighting its vibrant development and potential during his recent visit to Shanghai [3] - The surge of Chinese companies going global aligns with Citi's vision to be an excellent banking partner for enterprises with cross-border needs, as evidenced by the popularity of brands like TikTok and electric vehicles [4] - Citi operates in over 180 countries and regions, with a 123-year history in China, aiming to assist Chinese companies in their international expansion and connection to global capital markets [4] Group 2 - Citi's outlook on the Chinese economy remains positive, with expectations for growth to exceed the global average in the next two years, driven by a stable real estate market and effective policy support for domestic demand [5] - Changes in consumer attitudes among younger generations in China are anticipated to contribute to the growth of the domestic market, as they are more willing to spend compared to their parents [5] - Despite recent global strategic adjustments leading to a reduction of approximately 3,500 technical staff in Shanghai and Dalian, Citi remains committed to its corporate and institutional client business in China [6] Group 3 - Citi is seeking to establish a wholly-owned securities and futures company in China, indicating its long-term investment strategy in the market [6] - The upcoming Citi China Summit in November is expected to be more grand and significant than previous years, providing a platform for outstanding Chinese companies with global aspirations to connect with global investors [7]

Some of Citigroup’s wealthy clients are souring on the US and looking at the UK, according to Citigroup Global Wealth Head Andy Sieg https://t.co/UnSMCHr8Bl https://t.co/CFInUasSLq ...

当"小非农"与"大非农"出现截然相反的走势时，投资者面临一个棘手问题：究竟该相信谁？ 这几天公布的数据显示，美国6月就业数据出现罕见分化，官方与私营部门数据呈现截然不同的景象。 据美国劳工统计局数据，6月非农就业岗位增加14.7万个，超出市场预期的10.6万个，失业率从5月的 4.2%降至4.1%。 但ADP就业报告显示，私营部门就业岗位减少3.3万个，创下自2023年3月以来的首次负增长，预期值 9.8万人。而这不仅是数量级的差异，更是方向性的分歧。 花旗评价称，这种背离并非统计异常，而可能揭示了美国就业市场的内在分化。 据CNBC最新分析， 这一分化主要源于政府部门招聘激增。6月政府部门新增就业7.3万个，占当月非农 就业总增长的近一半。而ADP报告仅统计私营部门就业，不包括政府岗位。 美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，在6月非农就业中，政府部门新增就业显著增长；私营部门就业增长 疲软，创下去年十月以来的最低增幅： 美国政府部门新增就业7.3万个 花旗银行分析师在最新报告中指出，尽管失业率意外下降，但这主要归因于劳动参与率连续第二个月下 滑，而非就业市场的真正改善。6月劳动参与率从5月的62.4%回落至62. ...

智通财经7月4日电，香港交易所信息显示，花旗集团在中国人寿的持股比例于06月27日从5.10%降至 4.98%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant divergence in U.S. employment data for June, with government job growth contrasting sharply with private sector job losses, leading to confusion among investors about which data to trust [1][2][3] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [1] - The ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 33,000 private sector jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with a forecast of 98,000 jobs added [1][2] Group 2 - The increase in government jobs, particularly in state and local education sectors, accounted for 73,000 new jobs, nearly half of the total non-farm job growth for the month [4] - Private sector job growth was weak, with only 74,000 jobs added, and the goods-producing sector saw a net gain of just 6,000 jobs, with construction adding 15,000 jobs and manufacturing losing 7,000 jobs [4] - The healthcare and social assistance sector contributed significantly to private sector job growth, adding 59,000 jobs [4] Group 3 - Analysts from Citigroup noted that the apparent strength in employment data may be overstated, as both household and establishment surveys indicate signs of hiring slowdown [3][5] - The unexpected drop in the unemployment rate is attributed to a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell from 62.4% to 62.3%, reflecting a decrease in labor supply [2] - The report indicated a reduction of 603,000 jobs in household surveys over the past two months, which typically would lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, but a larger decrease in the labor force size resulted in a lower unemployment rate [2]