Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly due to weak non-farm payroll data, yet the actual decline of the US dollar has been less than anticipated. Despite this, major Wall Street banks are collectively bearish on the dollar, citing overvaluation and weak fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have published reports indicating that the long-term logic for a decline in the dollar remains intact, with significant short-selling potential still available [2][12]. - Following the release of non-farm data, the market's expectation for Fed rate cuts surged from approximately 30 basis points to about 60 basis points, highlighting the weak labor market [5][6]. - Despite the shift in interest rate expectations, the dollar's actual decline has been relatively moderate, suggesting that downward momentum has not been fully realized [6][10]. Group 2: Currency Valuation - Citigroup believes that the current valuation of the euro against the dollar is still below fair value, with potential for the euro/dollar exchange rate to overshoot to 1.20 [3][10]. - Goldman Sachs notes that the dollar's real trade-weighted exchange rate is still 15% above its long-term average, while the US current account deficit stands at 4% of GDP, both of which are unfavorable for the dollar [12]. - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that domestic policy uncertainties, particularly following the resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, add downward pressure on the dollar [12]. Group 3: Short-term Dynamics - The positioning of leveraged funds in dollars has flattened, indicating that previous large-scale liquidations may have concluded, which could affect the dollar's next movements [4][13]. - The dollar's future trajectory will depend heavily on three potential catalysts: the nomination of a new Fed governor, changes in the leadership of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the upcoming CPI inflation report on August 12 [4][14]. Group 4: Potential Catalysts - The nomination of Kugler's successor is seen as a direct catalyst that could likely be bearish for the dollar, with potential candidates being Walsh or Hassett [14]. - Changes in BLS leadership could inject uncertainty into upcoming employment reports, leading to market speculation on data outcomes rather than accuracy [14]. - The CPI report on August 12 is critical, as unexpected inflation data could challenge the narrative of rapid Fed rate cuts and support the dollar [14].

近日，花旗集团金融服务部门（Citi Services）主管 Shahmir Khaliq在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下 简称NBD）独家专访时给出了答案。 他表示，通过深度整合支付、流动性管理、贸易融资等五大核心业务，花旗构建了覆盖多市场多货币 的"端到端"解决方案，有效破解了传统金融服务碎片化痛点。 尽管面临利率下行挑战，花旗金融服务部依然贡献了花旗超半数存款，并在最新财季实现了8%的同比 收入增长和23%的有形普通股回报率（RoTCE）。 在全球复杂多变的金融环境下，大型跨国银行如何持续提升客户体验并保持强劲盈利能力？ 记者注意到，花旗金融服务部每年在技术上投入15亿美元。"客户需求正强力驱动技术迭代。"Shahmir Khaliq对记者表示，人工智能特别是生成式AI（人工智能），正在客户服务和后端流程自动化中发挥关 键作用。同时，花旗亦战略布局如Citi Token Services（花旗代币服务）等代币化解决方案，以实现实时 跨境资金转移和贸易融资自动化。 低利率环境也带来机遇 NBD：您曾在公开演讲中提到，花旗金融服务业务部门整合具有强大协同效应。能否具体说明这种整 合如何转化为客户体验提升？ ...

美国最新就业数据显示美国经济和劳动力市场正急剧放缓，已让华尔街确信美联储的政策拐点迫在眉 睫。高盛与花旗等纷纷预测，25基点甚至50基点的降息最早将在9月启动，政策利率的最终落点可能下 探至3%甚至更低。同时，美联储内部鸽派力量正在集结，或为为更早、更快的降息扫清障碍。 美国经济正显现出明确的放缓信号，尤其是在关键的劳动力市场，这使得美联储启动降息周期似乎已 是箭在弦上。 最新的就业数据成为引爆市场预期的导火索。据追风交易台消息，高盛8月4日测算，美国潜在的月度 就业增长已从第一季度的20.6万骤降至7月的2.8万。花旗则在报告中指出，在就业数据大幅下修后， 美联储官员可能"不再有耐心等待降息"，已经失去了采取"观望"态度的"奢侈"。 基于此， 高盛与花旗均认为9月降息25基点的可能性极高，若数据进一步恶化甚至可能激进降息50基 点。 高盛预测，美联储将在2025年9月、10月和12月连续进行三次25个基点的降息。花旗则在其基 准情景中预测政策利率将降至3%，并认为风险偏向于更低的利率水平。 这一预期转变也受到政治因素的推动。美联储理事Adriana Kugler的辞职，以及上次会议中出现的自 1993年以来 ...

美国经济正显现出明确的放缓信号，尤其是在关键的劳动力市场，这使得美联储启动降息周期似乎已是箭在弦上。 最新的就业数据成为引爆市场预期的导火索。据追风交易台消息，高盛8月4日测算，美国潜在的月度就业增长已从第一季度的20.6万骤降至7月的2.8万。 花旗则在报告中指出，在就业数据大幅下修后，美联储官员可能"不再有耐心等待降息"，已经失去了采取"观望"态度的"奢侈"。 基于此，高盛与花旗均认为9月降息25基点的可能性极高，若数据进一步恶化甚至可能激进降息50基点。高盛预测，美联储将在2025年9月、10月和12月连 续进行三次25个基点的降息。花旗则在其基准情景中预测政策利率将降至3%，并认为风险偏向于更低的利率水平。 美国就业报告中对5月和6月薪资数据的负面修正，进一步证实了市场的疲软。高盛分析称，在经济走弱时，延迟报告数据的公司往往是那些正在裁员的企 业，这导致初步数据存在高估。花旗同样认为，考虑到近年来薪资统计中存在的结构性高估，修正后的就业增长甚至可能不是正数。 华尔街见闻此前文章写道，美国7月非农新增就业7.3万远低于预期，前两月数据大幅下修25.8万。美国劳动力市场已不仅仅是"温和放缓"，而是"急速刹 ...

花旗集团(C.US)在亚太地区任命三位投行新高管，以推动其金融赞助商(financial sponsor)和杠杆融资业 务的增长，进一步扩展其投资银行和资本市场业务。 根据内部备忘录，Vikram Chavali被任命为董事总经理兼JANA(日本、北亚及澳大利亚)与南亚的全球资 产管理业务主管(GAM)；Deepak Dangayach将出任董事总经理兼亚太区债务资本市场(DCM)联席主管； Adrian Khoo将继续担任亚太区债务资本市场(DCM)联席主管。 ...

V i e w p o i n t | 01 Aug 2025 11:07:02 ET │ 12 pages US Economics Soft jobs post-FOMC, like deja vu all over again CITI'S TAKE Weakness that has been evident in details of labor market data was thrust into the headline numbers today with large 258k downward revisions to the last two months of payroll growth. Just like last year, the Fed now has a long wait to a very-likely cut in September. In our base case the Fed will cut 25bp but a 50bp cut is possible if the August jobs report is also weak. The unempl ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Economics - **Context**: The conference call discusses the outcomes of the mid-year Politburo meeting and US-China trade negotiations Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Target and Stimulus**: The Politburo is determined to meet a 5% GDP target for the year but shows no urgency for large-scale stimulus following a strong performance in the first half of 2025. Incremental measures will likely be implemented to support this goal [1][3][5] 2. **Monetary Policy**: The meeting removed previous mentions of "timely rate and RRR cut," indicating that rate cuts are not a near-term priority. The focus will be on maintaining abundant liquidity and lowering financing costs [5][3] 3. **Fiscal Policy**: The Politburo plans to accelerate government bond issuance without hinting at an interim budget revision. This could support credit impulses in the summer [5][9] 4. **Consumption Focus**: There is a shift in consumption policies towards services, with new growth areas being cultivated. The absence of mentions regarding equipment upgrades suggests a potential policy shift [5][3] 5. **Property Sector**: Limited attention was given to the property sector, with "urban renewal" being the only focus. The Politburo did not reiterate intentions to stabilize the property market, indicating that local governments may bear the burden of any necessary actions [5][3] 6. **Trade Negotiations**: The recent US-China trade talks ended with a 90-day extension of tariffs, which was below expectations. The focus on structural issues may complicate future negotiations [7][8] Additional Important Points 1. **Future Planning**: The fourth Plenary Session is scheduled to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan, with expectations for high-level guidance but no major policy shifts anticipated [4][6] 2. **Regulatory Focus**: The leadership emphasized regulating disorderly competition and local government behavior, aligning with expectations for supply-side reforms [5][3] 3. **Market Sentiment**: The outcomes of the Politburo meeting and trade talks may weigh on near-term market sentiment, creating uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][7] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic strategies and challenges facing China.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" investment rating for the industry, with a cautious view on midcap banks and a positive outlook for large cap banks [5][3]. Core Insights - The regulatory landscape for US banks is expected to undergo significant changes, with proposals for lower capital requirements likely to double excess capital and risk-weighted asset (RWA) capacity at large cap banks [1][4]. - The Federal Reserve is moving quickly on regulatory reforms, with a broad consensus anticipated on many proposals, including stress test transparency and GSIB surcharge adjustments [3][4]. - The expected increase in excess capital for large cap banks is projected to rise from $118 billion in Q2 2025 to $228 billion following the implementation of new regulations [7][9]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - Key changes anticipated over the next year include lower stress capital buffers (SCBs) from the 2025 stress test, enhanced stress test transparency, and reforms to the GSIB surcharge and supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) [7][10]. - The Basel III Endgame finalization is expected to provide clarity for banks to optimize capital, supporting loan demand and capital markets activity [10][11]. Capital and RWA Capacity - Large cap banks currently have $118 billion of excess capital, which is expected to increase to $157 billion after a lower 2025 SCB, $172 billion post-SLR reform, and $228 billion post-GSIB surcharge reform [9][17]. - Incremental RWA capacity for large cap banks is projected to double from $0.9 trillion in Q2 2025 to $1.9 trillion following regulatory changes [9][19]. Earnings Impact - A sensitivity analysis indicates that optimizing excess capital could lead to a median increase of 24% in consensus 2026 earnings per share (EPS) across large cap banks, midcap banks, and consumer finance coverage [10][34]. - Regional banks are expected to benefit significantly from faster M&A approvals, which should enhance capital positions and growth opportunities [10][11]. Company-Specific Opportunities - Citigroup is projected to increase its excess capital from $16 billion to $31 billion post-GSIB surcharge reform, with significant buyback plans [32]. - Bank of America is expected to see its excess capital rise from $10 billion to $33 billion, with strong buyback potential and loan growth [32]. - JPMorgan Chase anticipates an increase in excess capital from $38 billion to $60 billion, benefiting from lower GSIB surcharges [32]. - Goldman Sachs is positioned to benefit from a rebound in capital markets, with expected buybacks of $17 billion in 2025 [32][33]. - Wells Fargo is projected to increase its excess capital from $13 billion to $34 billion, allowing for organic growth and share repurchases [32].

Flash | Geoff Meacham, Ph.D.AC +1-404-443-4701 geoffrey.meacham@citi.com 31 Jul 2025 14:48:47 ET │ 8 pages Jarwei Fang +1-212-816-3582 jarwei.fang@citi.com US Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology President Trump's MFN letter to pharma appears more as political pressure than cause for increased concern CITI'S TAKE President Trump's letters (Bloomberg here, 7/31) sent to 17 of the largest Biopharmas seeking MFN pricing is likely to cause downward pressure on the DRG index. However, we caution against knee-jerk r ...

美国就业市场的突然降温，正让华尔街的交易员和经济学家们回想起去年夏天美联储的政策路径。 当时，美联储在7月会议上选择按兵不动，但随后公布的疲软就业报告迅速扭转了局面，促使官员们在9月会议上采取了激进的50个基点降息"补救"措施。如 今，类似的剧本似乎正在上演，市场正密切关注美联储是否会"故技重施"。 目前市场对大幅降息的预期正在升温。据追风交易台消息，花旗在8月1日的研报中预计美联储将在9月降息25个基点，但如果8月就业数据同样疲软，50个基 点降息的可能性显著增加。 过去三个月，美国平均就业增长仅为35000人。花旗研究甚至通过QCEW数据推测， 实际数字可能更低 ，初步修正数据预计将于9月9日发布，届时可能显示 这一期间的就业增长为负值。此外，联邦政府在过去六个月累计减少84000个工作岗位，也进一步凸显了就业市场的全面疲软。 市场热议：美联储9月或将大幅降息 这份意外疲软的就业报告，立即引发了市场对美联储"7月按兵不动、9月大幅降息"剧本重演的热议。据见闻此前文章，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的知名财经记 者Nick Timiraos表示， 这幅场景有"似曾相识"之感 ： 去年，美联储官员在7月的政策会议上 ...