The metal initially slipped by as much as 1% in Asian trading, but later regained ground, with bullion for immediate delivery up 0.2%, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, spot gold was trading near $4,012 an ounce in London at 8:27 a.m. The recovery comes after Beijing revealed on Saturday that it would stop allowing certain retailers to fully offset the value-added tax (VAT) on gold sourced from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). The announcement triggered a swift ma ...

Gold dipped below $4,000 an ounce after China ended a long-standing tax rebate for some retailers, a change that could weigh on demand in one of the world’s largest precious-metals markets.Bullion for immediate delivery fell as much as 1 per cent before paring most of that intraday loss, as Chinese jewellery stocks tumbled. Beijing announced Saturday that it would no longer allow some retailers to offset a value-added tax when selling gold they bought from the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exc ...

格隆汇11月3日｜港交所信息显示，花旗集团在招商银行H股的持股比例于10月27日从4.96%升至 5.04%。 ...

继花旗之后，高盛也乐观预估美国政府停摆有望在"两周内结束"，这对依赖数据进行决策的美联储来说 至关重要。 据追风交易台消息，高盛最新发布的分析报告显示，已持续多日的美国联邦政府部分停摆事件正显现出 结束的迹象，该行预计僵局最有可能在11月的第二周左右被打破。 对于停摆如何影响美联储12月的利率决策，华尔街大行普遍认为关门时长是核心变量。此前花旗在一份 报告中表示，其"越来越有信心"政府关门将在未来两周内结束。 花旗认为，一旦政府重开，数据发布将迅速恢复，美联储在12月会议前"将可能获得多达三份就业报 告"，这将为继续降息25个基点提供充分依据。因此，该行维持其对美联储在12月、明年1月和3月连续 降息的基准预测。 僵局有望打破，高盛预言"两周内"结束 尽管此次政府停摆持续时间已快赶超2018-2019年的35天纪录，但高盛认为政府关门"终点比起点更 近"。 据报告分析，此次停摆之所以持续如此之久，部分原因在于特朗普政府采取了非常规措施，动用去年未 用尽的资金来支付军饷等，从而暂时缓解了一些矛盾。然而，这种腾挪空间正逐渐耗尽。随着停摆的负 面影响不断累积，多个关键压力点正迫使国会两党寻求妥协。 首先，空中交通管 ...

日本股市正展现出迈向长期牛市的强劲势头，在稳健的全球市场和对新政府经济政策的乐观预期推动 下，过去一个月涨势显著。花旗集团（Citi）在一份最新发布的策略报告中大胆预测，日经225指数触及 50000点将仅仅是牛市征途中的一个"中途站"，日本股市的长期上涨趋势远未结束。 据追风交易台，花旗在10月30日由分析师 Ryota Sakagami 等人发布的报告中，将日经225指数的2026年 底目标价设定为55000点。这一乐观展望主要基于三大支柱：新一届政府有望顺利推行支持性经济政 策、企业基本面在通胀环境下保持强劲，以及日本股票的低估值具备长期修正空间。 报告指出，新首相 Sanae Takaichi 的政府预计将实施包括减税在内的措施来支持家庭预算，并通过促进 增长领域的投资来提高生产率，从而可能创造一个稳定的"工资-物价"良性循环。这些政策若能稳步推 行，有望成为提振日本经济和股市的关键催化剂。 尽管花旗承认，从短期来看，东证指数（TOPIX）的12个月远期市盈率已接近历史高位，且支撑日股上 涨的全球科技股涨势有减弱迹象，但报告强调，市场不太可能重演去年8月的大幅回调。分析师认为， 任何短期的市场调整，都 ...

Flash | 30 Oct 2025 12:19:46 ET │ 9 pages China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #156 – Thermal Coal Production and Inventory CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Sxcoal, a consultant, on 100 sample China thermal coal mines' production and inventory data during the week of 23rd to 29th Oct 2025. Latest pecking order: copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel> lithiu ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is creating a "data fog" for the Federal Reserve, making its December interest rate decision uncertain. The longer the shutdown lasts, the less likely a rate cut will occur, according to Morgan Stanley, while Citigroup remains optimistic about a resolution within two weeks, allowing for potential rate cuts [1][4][12]. Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - The duration of the government shutdown directly affects the availability of key economic data, which the Federal Reserve relies on for decision-making. A longer shutdown leads to a higher probability of pausing rate cuts [4][9]. - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that the lack of data will lead to more cautious actions, comparing the situation to "driving in fog" [3][5]. Group 2: Market Perspectives - Morgan Stanley believes that the longer the shutdown continues, the lower the chances of a rate cut, emphasizing the importance of timely data for the Fed's decisions [4][11]. - In contrast, Citigroup expresses confidence that the government will reopen within two weeks, which would provide the Fed with sufficient data to support a rate cut in December [12][16]. Group 3: Scenarios Based on Shutdown Duration - Scenario 1: If the shutdown ends next week, the Fed could receive multiple employment reports and key inflation data, supporting a rate cut decision [11]. - Scenario 2: If the shutdown ends by mid-November, the Fed may only have limited data, but state-level unemployment data could still provide some insights [11]. - Scenario 3: If the shutdown extends past Thanksgiving, the Fed may only have access to September's data, increasing the likelihood of pausing rate cuts unless strong negative signals emerge [11]. Group 4: Immediate Economic Pressures - The shutdown has already impacted social welfare programs, with the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits ceasing on November 1, affecting up to 42 million Americans [13]. - There is an impending crisis regarding military pay, as funds for military salaries are running low [14]. - Upcoming local elections may create new political momentum to resolve the shutdown [15].

Core Insights - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has experienced a continuous rally for ten months, driven by an artificial intelligence boom and a weaker dollar, resulting in a 30% increase year-to-date [1][2] - Emerging-market stocks are outperforming US peers for the first time in eight years, leading to forecasts of a multi-year rally from money managers [4] Group 1: Market Performance - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index closed October with a 4% gain, despite a 0.7% drop on the last trading day of the month [1] - Emerging-market bonds also saw gains, with the Bloomberg EM Sovereign Total Return Index of dollar bonds achieving a seventh consecutive month of increases [5] Group 2: Catalysts for Growth - Strong performance in AI-focused Asian tech stocks and a weaker dollar have prompted diversification from US assets [2] - Targeted stimulus in China has positively impacted earnings estimates, fund flows, and overall market sentiment [2] Group 3: Sector Composition - Emerging-market equities are increasingly diversified beyond traditional sectors like banks and commodities, with significant representation from tech, consumer, and medical sectors [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's potential decision not to lower interest rates in December has created uncertainty, leading to modest profit-taking in select asset classes [4] - A trade truce between China and the US has contributed to a perceived easing of tariff frictions, benefiting risk assets [5][6]

美国政府的持续停摆，正让美联储陷入一场"数据迷雾"，其12月的利率决策也因此变得悬而未决。 在最近一次议息会议后，美联储主席鲍威尔的表态强化了市场的谨慎预期。据追风交易台消息，花旗和摩根士丹利的最新报告显示，鲍威尔一 改此前的鸽派立场，措辞强硬地表示12月降息"远非定局"。 他将当前缺乏数据的处境比作"在迷雾中驾驶"，并直言"如果你在雾中开车，你会怎么做？你会慢下来。"这一比喻被市场解读为明确的信号： 数据缺失可能导致美联储在行动上更加谨慎。 由于政府关门导致关键经济数据无法按时发布，依赖数据做决策的美联储正面临越来越大的不确定性。 目前，华尔街对此看法不一。摩根士丹利认为，关门时间越长，降息概率越低。而花旗则对政府停摆在两周内结束抱有信心，并预计美联储将 如期降息。 数据真空下的"迷雾驾驶" 鲍威尔的"迷雾驾驶"论，凸显了美联储在数据真空下的政策困境。据摩根士丹利报告，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上强调，货币政策"并未预设路径"， 并将"越来越依赖数据"。这一立场转变，发生在他宣布降息25个基点的同时，显得尤为鹰派。 花旗的分析师Andrew Hollenhorst团队认为，鲍威尔的鹰派言论可能是为了在意见分歧的美联 ...

Financial Services - Citigroup is in discussions with Banco Fomento de Angola to offer dollar and euro clearing services [1] - The services are intended for the second-largest bank in Angola [1]