11月12日（周三），花旗（Citi）周三表示，继续预测铜价到2026年第二季将攀升至均价每吨12,000美 元，乐观情况下料达每吨14,000美元。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn 花旗称，由于2024年的基数较强，因此2025年四季度消费同比增长持续疲弱，而且制造业活动低迷，但 在美国宽松的财政政策和全球货币政策的帮助下，预计2026年需求将出现复苏。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过 剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局，上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国 铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 花旗预计今年剩余时间内铜价将交投在每吨11,000美元左右，这一预测淡化了近期疲弱的实物需求的影 响，而是反映了2026年较为利好的基本面，但如果出现利多价格的催化剂，那么铜价可能会更快达到每 吨12,000美元。 花旗表示，良莠不一的全球制造业人气表明今年余下时间内 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about the overvaluation of AI concept stocks are rising, with notable figures like Michael Burry shorting Nvidia and SoftBank liquidating its Nvidia holdings, leading to a decline in tech stocks and a nearly 10% drop in Nvidia's share price since November [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The total market capitalization of major US tech companies, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon, has surpassed $20 trillion, with Nvidia's market cap increasing from $4 trillion to $5 trillion in less than four months [2] - The concentration of market capitalization among the top tech companies has reached historical highs, with these firms accounting for over 30% of the S&P 500 index [2] - Since the beginning of 2023, over $500 billion has flowed into the information technology sector, representing more than 36% of the incremental capital [2] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the current AI investment frenzy may be reminiscent of the 2000 internet bubble, indicating a collective irrational enthusiasm that could lead to significant asset price deviations from intrinsic values [2][3] - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon predicts a potential 10% to 20% market decline within the next 12 to 24 months, while JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns that many assets appear to be entering a bubble phase [3] Group 3: Profitability Concerns - Michael Burry highlights that many tech companies are extending the useful life of their assets to understate depreciation expenses, potentially inflating profit figures by approximately $176 billion from 2026 to 2028 [3][4] - The AI hype has led to concerns about the sustainability of profits, with OpenAI signing deals worth around $1 trillion for computing power, raising fears of an "AI circular trade" [4] Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Despite concerns, investors continue to increase their bets on AI-related stocks, with Deutsche Bank reporting ongoing capital inflows into popular tech sectors [6] - The proportion of stock investments in American households has reached historical highs, indicating extreme market enthusiasm and risk appetite [6] Group 5: Valuation Metrics - The "Buffett Indicator," which measures the total market capitalization of US stocks against GDP, is at historical highs, with a ratio of 223 as of November 11, indicating potential overvaluation [7] - The shift in valuation metrics from traditional earnings-based models to sales ratios and potential market size reflects a growing reliance on future expectations rather than current performance [7]

Core Insights - Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire is facing skepticism ahead of the company's upcoming earnings report, emphasizing the need for deep conviction in their mission [2][3] - Allaire's strategic approach contrasts with the Bitcoin ecosystem, focusing on integrating crypto technology into the existing fiat system rather than separating money from the state [2] - Circle has experienced significant challenges, including near bankruptcy and job cuts, while competing with larger stablecoin players like Tether [3][4] Company Developments - Circle transitioned from a Bitcoin-centric payments platform to a stablecoin issuer, launching USDC as its flagship product [3] - The company went public in June, becoming the first publicly-traded stablecoin issuer, which has enhanced credibility in the stablecoin market [5][6] - The successful IPO attracted major underwriters, signaling that stablecoins are viable financial products with real-world applications [6] Market Context - The stablecoin market is characterized as a "winner-take-most" environment, indicating intense competition among issuers [4] - Tether's USDT stablecoin currently holds a larger market value, posing a significant challenge for Circle [4]

格隆汇11月11日｜花旗集团将回声星公司目标价从85美元上调至87美元。 ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 07 Nov 2025 07:21:53 ET │ 11 pages China Economics High Base and Renewed Trade Tension Weigh on Exports CITI'S TAKE +852-2501-2754 xiangrong.yu@citi.com Yuanliu Hu AC +852-2501-2746 yuanliu.hu@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should b ...

业绩超预期在即？ 花旗预计，英伟达即将公布的业绩将轻松超越华尔街的普遍预期。报告预测，公司截至10月的季度销售额将达到570亿美元，高于市场平均预期的约 550亿美元。 对于未来的展望，花旗预计英伟达给出的1月季度销售指引将达到620亿美元，同样高于市场约610亿美元的预期。 花旗预计英伟达即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现"营收超预期和指引上调"的强劲表现，维持"买入"评级并将目标价上调至220美元。其认为，当前限 制英伟达增长的并非AI需求疲软，而是CoWoS封装等供应链瓶颈，AI泡沫论站不住脚。 花旗11月10日发布的一份研究报告，维持对英伟达股票的"买入"评级，并将目标价从210美元上调至220美元。更引人注目的是，花旗开启了对该股 的"30天短期看涨"观点，押注其即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现"营收超预期和指引上调"（beat and raise）的强劲表现。 这份报告直接回应了投资者对AI资本支出"虚火"的担忧。分析师Atif Malik和Papa Sylla在报告中指出，尽管存在关于AI投资资金来源的疑虑，但一个更 基本面的事实是，由于先进封装（CoWoS）产能受限，AI芯片的供应在2026 ...

花旗报告表示，投资者的言辞与行动出现了显著脱节，他们对估值、信贷和劳动力市场"忧心忡忡"，但对美国大盘股的配置却"坚定不移"，情绪指数已 触"亢奋"。当前美股估值达历史极值，但强劲盈利成关键支柱。花旗认为，当前AI未现泡沫，适合逢低布局。 这种分裂心态为市场带来了不确定性。强劲的企业盈利为股市提供了支撑，但极端的估值和过度乐观的仓位使市场变得异常脆弱。一旦盈利增长的故事 出现裂痕，当前这种微妙的平衡就可能被打破。 情绪与仓位的巨大鸿沟 花旗报告详细揭示了投资者情绪与实际仓位之间的巨大差异。报告指出， 尽管客户口头上表达了对"估值、泡沫、信贷和劳动力"的"持续担忧"，但其 市场仓位读数却显得"亢奋"。 用来衡量市场情绪的花旗莱斯科维奇恐慌与亢奋指数（Levkovich Index）目前读数为0.72，显著高于0.38的"亢奋"标准。报告的历史回测数据显示，当 该指数进入亢奋区域时，标普500指数接下来一年的回报中位数通常为负值（-9.4%）。 一种"口是心非"的矛盾情绪正在主导美股市场。据追风交易台，花旗最新报告指出， 投资者一方面对高企的估值和潜在的AI泡沫表示担忧，但他们的实 际投资组合却显示出极度看涨的" ...

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street banks have issued a clear warning about potential liquidity pressures in the U.S. money market, indicating that these issues may resurface [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Despite short-term financing rates stabilizing this week, liquidity tension signals in the financial system have raised widespread concerns among banks and policymakers [3] - Industry experts express cautious outlooks on future market trends, highlighting that current market volatility reflects deeper liquidity supply-demand imbalances [3] - The recovery in the market is largely dependent on banks utilizing Federal Reserve financing tools to alleviate short-term pressures, which is considered a temporary solution [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Policy Implications - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that if recent increases in repo rates are not temporary but indicative of structural liquidity shortages, the Fed may need to initiate asset purchase programs to inject long-term liquidity [3] - Analysts suggest that the market environment has moved away from a state of ample reserves, indicating that similar rate volatility events may become the norm, necessitating the Fed to prepare various policy tools in advance [3] Group 3: Treasury Issuance and Liquidity Pressure - The combination of the Fed's quantitative tightening and record-high U.S. Treasury issuance has exacerbated liquidity pressures [4] - Large banks, as primary underwriters of government debt, are required to absorb portions of Treasury securities that investors fail to fully subscribe to, which consumes significant bank capital [4] - Current aggressive issuance of U.S. Treasury securities is nearing the demand limits of traditional investors, potentially exhausting their capacity to absorb new supply [4]

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (Nov 2025) Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminum - **Region**: China - **Report Date**: November 6, 2025 - **Source**: Citi Research, Mysteel Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China for the week of October 30 to November 5, 2025, was **854,000 tons (kt)**, remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but showing a **3% increase year-over-year (YoY)** and a **2% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [2]** - Aluminum billet production was **358,000 tons (kt)**, also flat WoW, with a **7% increase YoY** and a **6% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [2]** - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production for the calendar year reached **37.9 million tons (mnt)**, reflecting a **2.8% increase YoY**, while aluminum billet production totaled **15.5 million tons (mnt)**, up **6.0% YoY [2]** Inventory Levels - As of November 6, 2025, total aluminum ingot and billet inventory in China was **915,000 tons (kt)**, flat WoW, with a **4% increase YoY** and a **5% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [3]** - Breakdown of inventory: - Social inventory: **759,000 tons (kt)**, flat WoW, **10% increase YoY** - Producers' inventory: **156,000 tons (kt)**, up **2% WoW**, but down **17% YoY [3]** - Total aluminum ingot inventory was **666,000 tons (kt)**, up **1% WoW** and **6% YoY**, while aluminum billet inventory was **249,000 tons (kt)**, flat WoW and down **3% YoY [3]** Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption for the week was **881,000 tons (kt)**, down **5% WoW**, flat YoY, but up **4% YoY on the lunar calendar [4]** - Specific consumption figures: - Aluminum ingot: **903,000 tons (kt)**, down **2% WoW**, flat YoY - Aluminum billet: **336,000 tons (kt)**, down **7% WoW**, but up **9% YoY [4]** - YTD overall aluminum apparent consumption reached **39.1 million tons (mnt)**, reflecting a **4.5% increase YoY [4]** Market Sentiment and Analysis - The aluminum inventory data is considered more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand as it encompasses various types of aluminum inventory [5] - The current inventory level is lower than the same period in 2021 but higher than the levels observed in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [5] - Apparent consumption levels have decreased WoW but are higher than the same period in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar [7] Additional Insights - The report indicates a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector, with a pecking order of demand across various materials: copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel > lithium > thermal coal [1]

Vi e w p o i n t | 06 Nov 2025 20:34:04 ET │ 9 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (27): No Export Relief from Tariff Relief? CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Nov 2nd . The tariff relief post the presidential summit seemingly has not provided much relief to China's direct exports to the US. Tariff uncertainty could also rise with IEEPA ruling pending at the Supreme Court. The help from tariff reduction to exports could be a 2026 story, in our view. Meanwhile, ...