Vi e w p o i n t | 07 Nov 2025 07:21:53 ET │ 11 pages China Economics High Base and Renewed Trade Tension Weigh on Exports CITI'S TAKE +852-2501-2754 xiangrong.yu@citi.com Yuanliu Hu AC +852-2501-2746 yuanliu.hu@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should b ...

业绩超预期在即？ 花旗预计，英伟达即将公布的业绩将轻松超越华尔街的普遍预期。报告预测，公司截至10月的季度销售额将达到570亿美元，高于市场平均预期的约 550亿美元。 对于未来的展望，花旗预计英伟达给出的1月季度销售指引将达到620亿美元，同样高于市场约610亿美元的预期。 花旗预计英伟达即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现"营收超预期和指引上调"的强劲表现，维持"买入"评级并将目标价上调至220美元。其认为，当前限 制英伟达增长的并非AI需求疲软，而是CoWoS封装等供应链瓶颈，AI泡沫论站不住脚。 花旗11月10日发布的一份研究报告，维持对英伟达股票的"买入"评级，并将目标价从210美元上调至220美元。更引人注目的是，花旗开启了对该股 的"30天短期看涨"观点，押注其即将于11月19日公布的财报将实现"营收超预期和指引上调"（beat and raise）的强劲表现。 这份报告直接回应了投资者对AI资本支出"虚火"的担忧。分析师Atif Malik和Papa Sylla在报告中指出，尽管存在关于AI投资资金来源的疑虑，但一个更 基本面的事实是，由于先进封装（CoWoS）产能受限，AI芯片的供应在2026 ...

花旗报告表示，投资者的言辞与行动出现了显著脱节，他们对估值、信贷和劳动力市场"忧心忡忡"，但对美国大盘股的配置却"坚定不移"，情绪指数已 触"亢奋"。当前美股估值达历史极值，但强劲盈利成关键支柱。花旗认为，当前AI未现泡沫，适合逢低布局。 这种分裂心态为市场带来了不确定性。强劲的企业盈利为股市提供了支撑，但极端的估值和过度乐观的仓位使市场变得异常脆弱。一旦盈利增长的故事 出现裂痕，当前这种微妙的平衡就可能被打破。 情绪与仓位的巨大鸿沟 花旗报告详细揭示了投资者情绪与实际仓位之间的巨大差异。报告指出， 尽管客户口头上表达了对"估值、泡沫、信贷和劳动力"的"持续担忧"，但其 市场仓位读数却显得"亢奋"。 用来衡量市场情绪的花旗莱斯科维奇恐慌与亢奋指数（Levkovich Index）目前读数为0.72，显著高于0.38的"亢奋"标准。报告的历史回测数据显示，当 该指数进入亢奋区域时，标普500指数接下来一年的回报中位数通常为负值（-9.4%）。 一种"口是心非"的矛盾情绪正在主导美股市场。据追风交易台，花旗最新报告指出， 投资者一方面对高企的估值和潜在的AI泡沫表示担忧，但他们的实 际投资组合却显示出极度看涨的" ...

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street banks have issued a clear warning about potential liquidity pressures in the U.S. money market, indicating that these issues may resurface [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Despite short-term financing rates stabilizing this week, liquidity tension signals in the financial system have raised widespread concerns among banks and policymakers [3] - Industry experts express cautious outlooks on future market trends, highlighting that current market volatility reflects deeper liquidity supply-demand imbalances [3] - The recovery in the market is largely dependent on banks utilizing Federal Reserve financing tools to alleviate short-term pressures, which is considered a temporary solution [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Policy Implications - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that if recent increases in repo rates are not temporary but indicative of structural liquidity shortages, the Fed may need to initiate asset purchase programs to inject long-term liquidity [3] - Analysts suggest that the market environment has moved away from a state of ample reserves, indicating that similar rate volatility events may become the norm, necessitating the Fed to prepare various policy tools in advance [3] Group 3: Treasury Issuance and Liquidity Pressure - The combination of the Fed's quantitative tightening and record-high U.S. Treasury issuance has exacerbated liquidity pressures [4] - Large banks, as primary underwriters of government debt, are required to absorb portions of Treasury securities that investors fail to fully subscribe to, which consumes significant bank capital [4] - Current aggressive issuance of U.S. Treasury securities is nearing the demand limits of traditional investors, potentially exhausting their capacity to absorb new supply [4]

In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectation on demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Mysteel, a consultant, on China aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and apparent consumption data during the week of 30th Oct to 5 th Nov 2025. Latest sector pecking order: copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel> lithium > thermal coal. Production – According to Mysteel, fro ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 06 Nov 2025 20:34:04 ET │ 9 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (27): No Export Relief from Tariff Relief? CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Nov 2nd . The tariff relief post the presidential summit seemingly has not provided much relief to China's direct exports to the US. Tariff uncertainty could also rise with IEEPA ruling pending at the Supreme Court. The help from tariff reduction to exports could be a 2026 story, in our view. Meanwhile, ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Steel Inventory and Consumption Data Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **steel industry in China**, analyzing high-frequency demand trends and production data [1][1]. Key Points and Arguments Production Data - Total steel production in China from October 31 to November 6 was **8.6 million tons (mt)**, reflecting a **2.1% decrease week-over-week (WoW)** and a **0.6% decrease year-over-year (YoY)** [1][1]. - Year-to-date total steel production reached **386.5 mt**, which is a **0.7% increase YoY** [1][1]. - Breakdown of production includes: - Rebar: **2.1 mt**, -1.9% WoW, -10.8% YoY - Hot Rolled Coil (HRC): **3.2 mt**, -1.7% WoW, +2.1% YoY - Cold Rolled Coil (CRC): **0.8 mt**, -2.5% WoW, -0.3% YoY [1][1]. Inventory Levels - As of November 6, China's steel inventory was **15.0 mt**, down **0.7% WoW** but up **23.4% YoY** [1][1]. - Inventory composition: - Steel mills: **4.3 mt**, -1.9% WoW, +7.4% YoY - Traders: **10.8 mt**, -0.2% WoW, +31.1% YoY [1][1]. - Specific inventory levels for rebar, HRC, and CRC: - Rebar: **5.9 mt**, -1.7% WoW, +33.9% YoY - HRC: **4.1 mt**, +0.9% WoW, +23.9% YoY - CRC: **1.5 mt**, +0.6% WoW, -4.1% YoY [1][1]. Apparent Consumption - During the week of October 31 to November 6, apparent steel consumption was **8.7 mt**, down **5.4% WoW** and **1.2% YoY** [1][1]. - Year-to-date apparent consumption totaled **382.1 mt**, reflecting a **1.5% increase YoY** [1][1]. - Breakdown of apparent consumption: - Rebar: **2.2 mt**, -5.9% WoW, -4.4% YoY - HRC: **3.1 mt**, -5.3% WoW, -1.5% YoY - CRC: **0.8 mt**, -6.1% WoW, -4.5% YoY [1][1]. Additional Insights - Market expectations for a demand recovery in the steel sector remain cautious, with a ranking of demand recovery potential indicating copper, battery materials, and gold as leading sectors, followed by aluminum, cement, steel, lithium, and thermal coal [1][1]. - The data suggests a mixed outlook for the steel industry, with production and consumption showing signs of decline in the short term, while inventory levels are significantly higher YoY, indicating potential oversupply issues [1][1].

（文章来源：证券时报网） 花旗警告称，日本科技股估值已过热，市盈率相对盈利增长比率（PEG）甚至超过了美国"七巨头"，但 盈利能力未能跟上。日经指数已进入超买区域，可能面临短期回调，甚至可能回落至48000点。 高盛指出，美国对日本股市的资金流入速度达到了"安倍经济学"以来的最快水平，日股今年以美元计价 的回报率高达约30%，远超标普500指数，吸引了美国投资者。高盛认为，这可能标志着日股市场风格 从价值股向成长股的转变，特别是科技和人工智能相关板块。 ...

一场由美国投资者主导的资本迁徙正在日本上演。高盛集团最新观察显示，美国资金正加速流入日本股 市，其速度已达到自"安倍经济学"时期以来的顶峰。 美国资金流入的增长速度是我们自安倍经济学以来所见过的最快速度。 高盛日本首席股票策略师Bruce Kirk在11月6日接受彭博采访时表示，美国投资者在日本股市的活跃参与 度已升至2022年10月以来的最高水平。 这股资金流入的背后，是日股以美元计价的惊人回报。得益于日元升值2.5%以及首相高市早苗刺激政 策带来的乐观情绪，日经225指数今年以美元计算的涨幅已达约30%，远超标普500指数14%的涨幅。根 据日本交易所集团的数据，仅在10月最后两周，外国投资者就净买入了3840亿日元（约合25亿美元）的 日本股票及期货。 高盛策略师认为，这可能标志着日股的一个转折点，市场驱动力或从价值股转向成长股。而美国投资者 的投资偏好可能成为改变日股市场风格的关键变量。 这一观点也与Bruce Kirk提到的"日经指数已进入超买区域，市场出现盘整并不意外"的看法形成了某种 呼应。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财 ...

Core Viewpoint - A legal challenge against the Trump administration's key tariff powers is leading the market to anticipate a significant, albeit possibly temporary, reversal of trade barriers [1][5]. Group 1: Legal Challenge and Market Reaction - The market's expectation of the Trump administration winning the IEEPA tariff case has significantly decreased, with the probability dropping from approximately 40% to 27% following preliminary comments from judges during the hearing [4][5]. - The market sentiment is shifting towards the likelihood that the Supreme Court will overturn the IEEPA-based tariff policy, which is a key variable affecting current market emotions [5][6]. Group 2: Alternative Legal Avenues - Despite setbacks in court, the Trump administration still has other legal avenues to impose tariffs, as indicated by Treasury Secretary Bessent's optimism and readiness to utilize alternative legal authorizations [6]. - Potential alternative measures include Section 122, allowing a broad 15% tariff within 150 days, Section 338, permitting tariffs up to 50% on countries discriminating against U.S. businesses, and the concept of "licensing fees" for tariffs, although the latter faced skepticism during the hearing [7][8][9]. Group 3: Short-term Winners and Losers - If the IEEPA tariffs are overturned, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to drop from an estimated 12.5% to around 9% [11]. - The biggest beneficiaries in the short term are likely to be economies heavily reliant on trade with the U.S. and most affected by the IEEPA tariffs, particularly Vietnam and Mexico [11][15]. - Other countries, such as India, may also see significant tariff reductions, while the EU and the UK are expected to benefit the least [15]. Group 4: Market Performance and Trading Strategies - On the day of the hearing, the market showed a favorable response, with the Mexican peso and Brazilian real appreciating, aligning with the analysis of potential winners [13]. - The Russell 2000 small-cap index outperformed the S&P 500, reflecting a positive market sentiment towards tariffs [16]. - One-year inflation swap rates fell by over 5 basis points, indicating that investors quickly adjusted their expectations regarding inflation pressures from tariffed goods [16].