Vi e w p o i n t | 13 Nov 2025 19:47:44 ET │ 9 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (28): Exports Stabilize Post the Contraction in October CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Nov 12th . China's exports to the US stabilized at low levels with the two sides cutting tariffs and removing port fees. The level of cargo throughput has picked up from the trough seen in mid-October and stabilized. A return to positive exports growth in November looks quite likely to us. ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 13 Nov 2025 11:00:49 ET │ 10 pages China Economics Focus on Policy Transmission with Impact Yet to Surface in Credit Data +852-2501-2754 xiangrong.yu@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict o ...

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City is sticking with its bullish playbook, focusing on five stock selection narratives. AI at a reasonable price, positive ROE trend, inflecting growth, return on growth capex, and high earning sharp. So, let's bring in Drew Pettit from City to break this all down.Drew, welcome back. Last week, you told us the market's fully valued. This week, you got some themes.Which one of these do you think is the most counterintuitive. >> I would say the inflecting growth theme. It's funny.We're we're talking about th ...

More than two years after it emerged that Trafigura Group lost over half a billion dollars in an alleged nickel fraud, a trial began as the trading giant attempts to recover losses from the man it says was behind the scam.Proceedings kicked off at the High Court in London on Monday in the trial involving Trafigura — one of the world’s top commodities suppliers — and Indian businessman Prateek Gupta. Trafigura brought the claim after shocking the market in 2023 when it announced that almost $600 million of m ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan is expanding its operations in Dubai to enhance its business with midcap companies in the Middle East, challenging competitors like Citigroup [1] - The move is part of a broader strategy to diversify revenue streams beyond large blue-chip firms, with a focus on midcap firms in various regions including Austria and Poland [1] - The competitive landscape in the Middle East is intensifying, with other financial institutions like Barclays and Goldman Sachs also establishing operations in the region [2] Company Strategy - JPMorgan's co-head of corporate banking for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, Stefan Povaly, emphasized the global focus on midcap firms as a priority for the bank [1] - The bank is in preliminary stages of assessing an expansion of its midcap coverage in Turkey, indicating a strategic approach to growth in emerging markets [3] - As part of its expansion, JPMorgan has relocated Tushar Arora to Dubai to lead efforts in serving smaller, venture capital-backed companies [4] Competitive Landscape - The entry of more global financial institutions into the Middle East is increasing competition, prompting existing players like Citigroup to invest selectively and upgrade their teams [2][3] - Citigroup's head of commercial banking in the region acknowledged the need for vigilance due to rising competition [3] - JPMorgan's recent efforts in Poland and Austria reflect its commitment to expanding its midcap business across Europe [5]

智通财经APP获悉，当前，铜价走势看似平淡无奇，但市场暗流涌动，越来越多观点认为这种红色金属 将迎来大幅上涨。 在最新发布的《Metal Matters》市场分析报告中，华尔街大行花旗勾勒出这样的前景：到2026年第二季 度，铜价可能攀升至每吨1.2万美元。这一预测尤为值得关注，因为当前需求数据尚未显现全面复苏迹 象。 作为全球经济的晴雨表，铜长期以来被视作重要风向标。从电力工业、机械制造到可再生能源，这种金 属在众多领域都不可或缺。因此，铜市场的消费、供应和价格走势始终备受关注。花旗认为，当前市场 正处于"缓冲期"，这一阶段可能掩盖未来数年潜在的结构性变革。 全球需求稳定但消费疲软 供应端方面，花旗则担忧可能出现瓶颈。新铜矿的建设流程复杂、资本密集且耗时长，项目延期、现有 矿山矿石品位下降或监管障碍等因素，都可能导致产量增长放缓。该行警告，若供应无法跟上需求增长 的步伐，市场可能陷入结构性短缺。 分析师认为，当消费与生产出现缺口时，铜价将更多受稀缺性因素主导，而非当前的库存和需求数据。 2026年年中前铜价有望达到1.2万美元/吨的预测，正反映了这一观点——铜价可能进入结构性因素主导 的阶段。 疲软现状与套 ...

Summary of the PBoC's Monetary Policy Report for 25Q3 Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - **Entity**: People's Bank of China (PBoC) Key Points and Arguments 1. Limited New Information on Cyclical Policies - The PBoC's Monetary Policy Report (MPR) for 25Q3 indicates limited new information regarding near-term monetary policies - The report maintains a "moderately loose" tone, pledging to keep social financing conditions loose and liquidity ample - Growth is on track to meet the "around 5%" target for the year, with no expected cuts to policy rates or RRR in the remaining months of 2025 [5][4][6] 2. Inflation Outlook - The PBoC has become cautiously optimistic about the inflation outlook, noting "improvement in prices" compared to previous assessments - The report emphasizes the importance of a "reasonable rebound of prices" and acknowledges support from a national unified market and consumption [6][4][7] 3. Aggregate Financial Statistics - The PBoC discussed a structural shift in China's aggregate financial statistics, indicating that bank loans may not be the best measure of financing as the system evolves - The report highlights that the property sector's downturn has kept loan numbers low, suggesting that Total Social Financing (TSF) and monetary aggregates are better gauges of financial health [7][4][8] 4. Interest Rate System Focus - The PBoC has made minor adjustments to its policy rate system, including changes to the operations of the 14-Day Reverse Repo - The report outlines the PBoC's focus on various interest rate gaps as indicators of policy transmission efficiency, including the gap between policy rates and market rates, and the net interest margin (NIM) [8][9][10] 5. Exchange Rate Flexibility - The wording in the MPR regarding exchange rate flexibility has changed, indicating a focus on maintaining flexibility and preventing overcorrection risks - Despite a strong consensus for RMB appreciation, the report suggests that the upcoming CEWC will provide more significant insights into future currency policies [14][15][4] 6. Future Policy Expectations - The report anticipates a potential 20 basis points cut in policy rates in 2026E to support the property sector, with a slower pace of loan rate reductions observed in 25Q3 - The average corporate loan rates dropped by 8 basis points to 3.14% in September compared to June, while mortgage rates remained unchanged at 3.06% [11][4][12] Additional Important Insights - The PBoC's focus on the interest rate system and its implications for financial stability are critical, especially with the NIM at an all-time low of 1.42% - The report suggests that the demand side remains a key concern for future economic performance, particularly in the context of medium-to-long term inflation concerns [11][6][4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Indian economy, specifically analyzing inflation trends and the implications for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) [1][4][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Headline Inflation Decline**: Headline inflation fell to an all-time low of 0.25% YoY in October 2025, down from a revised 1.44% in September 2025. This decline is attributed to favorable base effects, subdued food prices, and GST cuts [1][4][18]. - **Core Inflation Trends**: Core inflation rose by 13 basis points to 4.4% YoY in October 2025, primarily driven by a spike in gold prices. The core CPI excluding petrol and diesel fell to a new low of 2.8% YoY [4][13][19]. - **Impact of GST Cuts**: GST rate cuts are estimated to have reduced headline inflation by 15-20 basis points and core inflation by approximately 35 basis points in October 2025. The largest impact was observed in CPI passenger cars, which saw a 6.4% decrease [12][14][19]. - **Vegetable Prices**: Vegetable inflation reached -28% YoY in October 2025, the lowest since the series began in 2013, driven by subdued prices of tomatoes, onions, and potatoes [5][10][19]. - **Food and Beverage Inflation**: Excluding vegetable inflation, food and beverage inflation is at a 6.5-year low of 1.6% YoY in October 2025 [10][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Revised Inflation Forecasts**: The average FY26 headline inflation forecast has been revised down to 2.0% YoY from 2.3% earlier, with expectations of 1.8% YoY for 2HFY26 [18][19]. - **RBI's Rate Cut Considerations**: There is an 80-100 basis points downside risk to RBI's inflation forecasts for 2HFY26 (2.9%) and 1HFY27 (4.5%). Despite this, the RBI may prefer to maintain a dovish stance rather than implement immediate rate cuts due to resilient economic activity [19][21]. - **Future Economic Indicators**: The upcoming 2QFY26 GDP data is expected to exceed 7%, which may prompt the RBI to revise its full-year GDP growth forecast upward [19][21]. Conclusion - The Indian economy is experiencing historically low inflation rates, influenced by various factors including GST cuts and subdued food prices. The RBI faces a complex decision-making environment regarding potential rate cuts, balancing inflation risks with ongoing economic resilience.

Core Insights - Russian President Vladimir Putin has authorized Citigroup Inc. to sell its Russian banking unit, AO Citibank, marking a significant step in the bank's planned withdrawal from Russia [1][10] - The sale reflects Citigroup's strategy to streamline global operations and exit non-core markets [1] Details of the Sale - Citigroup has received Kremlin approval to transfer AO Citibank to Renaissance Capital, a Moscow-based investment bank, although the deal amount has not been disclosed [2] - The approval allows Citigroup to expedite operational preparations and secure remaining regulatory clearances necessary to finalize the sale [2][10] - The divestiture includes Citigroup's remaining consumer and institutional operations in Russia, with nearly all institutional services already closed [3] Financial Exposure and Future Steps - As of September 2025, Citigroup had approximately $13.5 billion in exposure tied to Russia, primarily in corporate dividends that the Russian government has restricted [4] - The sale is expected to accelerate Citigroup's operational wind-down in Russia, covering all remaining operations [5][10] Global Restructuring Strategy - Under CEO Jane Fraser's transformation strategy, Citigroup is reshaping its global footprint by focusing on core businesses and reallocating capital to higher-return areas like wealth management [6] - Recent divestitures include a 25% stake in Banamex and the sale of its consumer banking business in Poland, among others [6][7] - These initiatives are aimed at freeing up capital for investment in key wealth hubs, with expected annualized run-rate savings of $2–$2.5 billion and a projected return on tangible common equity of 10–11% by 2026 [8] Market Performance - Citigroup's shares have increased by 46.4% over the past year, outperforming the industry's growth of 28.9% [9]