格隆汇2月3日｜花旗银行将PALANTIR目标价从235美元上调至260美元。 ...

With nine months until the US midterm elections, Wall Street is starting to game out trading scenarios leading up to the November vote. Top of mind is the American consumer, who is not all right, at least going by the latest sentiment surveys. Investors are eying trades that would benefit from efforts by the the Trump administration to lower the cost of living. That includes newfangled financial firms that may see higher demand as some tax changes and other cost-of-living policies are implemented, and hom ...

Core Viewpoint - Bullish (NYSE:BLSH) is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings for 2025, with analysts anticipating a significant increase in earnings per share and quarterly revenue compared to the previous quarter [1][2]. Market Estimates - Analysts project earnings per share of $0.15 for Bullish, up from $0.10 in the previous quarter [2]. - The expected quarterly revenue is $87.77 million, an increase from $76.60 million in the third quarter [2]. Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - The consensus price target for BLSH stock is $53.36, based on 12 analysts, with Citigroup providing the highest forecast of $67 [3]. - The average price target from the three most recent ratings is $53.67, indicating approximately 85% upside potential for the stock [3]. Sentiment and Indicators - As of December 31, short interest in BLSH stock was 7.15 million shares, representing 15.6% of the company's publicly available float, reflecting a high level of bearish sentiment [4]. - The Commodity Channel Index indicates oversold conditions, suggesting a potential "Buy" signal [4]. - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has flashed a "Sell" signal, while the Relative Strength Index remains "Neutral" [5]. Company Overview - Bullish operates a cryptocurrency exchange focused on institutional clients and owns CoinDesk, a notable cryptocurrency media and data brand [5]. - The company is led by former NYSE Group president Thomas Farley [5]. Trading Volume and Price Action - Bullish reported a total trading volume of $222.4 billion, including spot and derivatives, for the quarter ending December 31, marking a 56% increase from the previous quarter [6]. - Shares of Bullish rose 0.80% in after-hours trading after a 4.74% decline during the regular trading session, closing at $28.77 [6]. - The stock has shown a weaker price trend over short, medium, and long terms according to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings [6].

Core Viewpoint - Glencore is set to hire Citigroup as the lead investment bank for its potential acquisition deal, indicating a strategic move in the mining sector [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Glencore is preparing to engage Citigroup for a potential acquisition, highlighting its ongoing strategic initiatives in the mining industry [1] - Citigroup has a long-standing relationship with Glencore, having previously advised on significant transactions, including the 2011 IPO and the recent acquisition of Teck Resources' coal business [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The involvement of Citigroup in Glencore's potential acquisition suggests a competitive landscape in the mining sector, particularly with respect to mergers and acquisitions [1] - The disclosure submitted to the UK Takeover Panel indicates that Glencore is actively exploring opportunities to enhance its market position through strategic acquisitions [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **oil market** and the geopolitical implications of tensions between the **US and Iran**. The analysis considers various scenarios regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities and the potential for conflict or negotiation. Core Insights and Arguments - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The US is increasing military presence in the Middle East while engaging in negotiations with Iran. The expectation is that the US will take actions to limit Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities without provoking a disproportionate response from Iran, which is currently facing economic challenges and civil unrest [1][7][10]. - **Base Case Scenario**: The most likely outcome (70% probability) is that US and Israeli actions will be limited, avoiding escalation. This includes potential oil tanker seizures and maintaining sanctions pressure, which will keep the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets elevated [2][33]. - **Future Projections**: By November 2026, it is anticipated that a US-Iran deal may emerge, leading to a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium associated with Iranian oil, currently estimated at $7-10 per barrel [4][26]. - **Oil Market Dynamics**: Iran produces approximately **5 million barrels per day (b/d)**, accounting for **4% of global supply** and **5% of global oil trade flows**. Disruptions in Iranian oil exports could significantly impact global oil prices and markets, particularly through the **Strait of Hormuz**, which handles over **20 million b/d** of oil, representing more than **20% of global petroleum liquids supply** [10][11]. - **Potential Outcomes**: Various scenarios are outlined, including: - A full blockade of Iranian exports (15% probability) - Continuation of current strategies (10% probability) - Intensive military action targeting Iranian leadership (5% probability) [2][34]. Additional Important Insights - **Economic Context**: The US administration is sensitive to oil prices due to their impact on domestic political economy, particularly as inflation remains a key issue for voters [10][15]. - **Iran's Internal Situation**: The Iranian economy is struggling, with high inflation and civil unrest, which may increase the likelihood of a leadership change that could facilitate negotiations with the US [9][15]. - **Market Reactions**: Historical data suggests that spikes in geopolitical risks often lead to short-lived market impacts, with oil price fluctuations providing buying opportunities for risk assets [24]. - **Inflationary Impacts**: The report indicates that the disinflationary effects of low oil prices may be diminishing, suggesting a potential shift towards inflationary pressures as geopolitical risks in oil markets remain elevated [25]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The report emphasizes that the US may prefer to maintain the status quo until a favorable opportunity for a deal arises, with civil unrest in Iran posing the greatest risk for oil supply disruptions [15][37]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the oil market and geopolitical dynamics involving the US and Iran, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that current gold prices have significantly overextended future uncertainties, leading to a substantial downgrade of the medium to long-term gold price outlook, with a warning that in a bear market scenario, gold prices could drop to $3,000 per ounce [1][3] - Citi's global head, Maximilian Layton, indicates that while gold prices may still rise in the short term, their valuation has reached extreme levels, characterized by a decoupling from the real economy, with global annual spending on gold now at 0.7% of GDP, the highest level in 55 years [3] - The report anticipates that the risk factors supporting current high gold prices will dissipate later this year, including a potential de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, with a baseline scenario suggesting that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may reach some form of agreement by summer 2026, and a downgrade in the situation in Iran [3] Group 2 - The U.S. economy may enter a "Goldilocks" state of high growth and low inflation, which would weaken the demand for gold as a portfolio hedge [3] - Citi expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its independence, which is also viewed as a medium-term bearish factor for gold prices [3] - Based on the analysis, Citi predicts that gold prices will begin to decline in the second half of 2026, with a further drop expected in 2027, forecasting a return to $4,000 per ounce in the baseline scenario and a potential fall to $3,000 per ounce in a bear market scenario with a 20% probability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The spot gold price has rebounded, surpassing $4800 per ounce, indicating a strong upward trend in precious metals [1][7]. Price Movements - On February 3, spot gold opened with a nearly 2% increase, reaching $4802.115 per ounce, while spot silver rose over 5% to $83.594 per ounce [1][7]. - The latest data shows that the London gold price is at $4803.714, reflecting a 3.10% increase, and COMEX silver futures are reported at $83.24, up over 8% [3][8]. Market Analysis - Analysts from JPMorgan predict that the upward momentum in gold prices will continue, with expectations for gold to reach $6300 per ounce by the end of 2026 due to strong demand from central banks and investors [5][10]. - Citigroup maintains a target price of $5000 per ounce for the next 0-3 months but expresses caution for the second half of 2026, forecasting a potential drop to $4000 per ounce by 2027 [5][10]. - The current bull market in gold is driven more by significant capital allocation from investors rather than central bank purchases, with an estimated $1 trillion inflow contributing to the price increase [5][10].

Group 1 - The market is expected to enter a medium to long-term consolidation phase after a short-term momentum decline [10] - The Shanghai government has initiated a program to purchase second-hand housing for affordable rental housing projects, targeting new citizens, young people, and graduates [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved a new national standard for automotive door handles, set to be implemented in 2027, addressing safety and usability issues [5] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have released guidelines for the construction of a low-altitude economy standard system, aiming for over 300 standards by 2030 [3] - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a temporary method for long-term asset input tax deduction, allowing full deduction for mixed-use assets upon purchase [4] - The stock of Guokai Military Industry has experienced significant price fluctuations, with a recent announcement clarifying that its commercial aerospace projects are still in the R&D phase and have minimal impact on revenue [7]

Core Viewpoint - Swiss mining company Glencore is set to hire Citigroup as its lead investment bank for a potential acquisition of Rio Tinto, which could create a value exceeding $200 billion, making it the largest mining company globally [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Citigroup submitted a disclosure document to the UK Takeover Panel in January, indicating its association with Glencore regarding the potential transaction with Rio Tinto [1] - Glencore has a long-standing partnership with Citigroup, having previously engaged the bank for several significant transactions, including its 2011 initial public offering and the recent acquisition of Teck Resources' coal business [1]

Silver has burst into 2026 as the defining story of the commodities market. In January, silver (SIH26) powered into triple‑digit territory, touching $121, more than tripling in value over the past year and turning a once sleepy hedge into one of the most aggressive risk expressions on traders' screens. Even after sliding back to about $79 per ounce as of Jan. 30, it still sits more than 7% higher year-to-date and roughly 120% above its level a year ago. www.barchart.com This kind of vertical move, with w ...