花旗最新通胀周报显示，关税对消费价格的冲击并非没有发生，而是以一种比市场预期更缓慢、更持久的形式出现。 尽管自春季以来美国实施了多轮关税上调，但在过去4-5个月的通胀数据中，其对消费品价格的直接推动作用远比预期要小。7月份的通胀数据虽 然有所走强（核心CPI月度增长0.3%，符合预期），但其主要驱动力来自服务业，而非商品。花旗预计7月核心PCE环比增长为0.27%，年率将升 至2.9%。 报告明确指出，那种市场担心的"最坏情况"——即因预期成本上升而导致商品价格出现迅速、大规模、普遍性上涨的局面——已经得以避免。 其核心原因在于疲软的终端需求。在需求不振的背景下，企业被迫在更长的时间内自行吸收关税成本，以避免因大幅提价而失去客户。这种策略 虽然暂时压制了CPI数据，但代价是企业利润受到挤压，并可能反过来进一步拖累未来的总需求。因此，关税的影响并非消失，而是被拉长了战 线。 未来数月是关键窗口期：关注服装、汽车和电子产品 花旗强调，8月至10月的通胀数据将是对关税传导动态的"最大考验"。该行框架表明，这一时期商品价格上涨的风险显著增加，主要基于以下几 点： 据追风交易台消息，花旗在最新研报中表示，最坏的"通胀闪 ...

智通财经APP获悉，据报道，花旗(C.US)一位高管透露，该行正在研究开展稳定币托管等业务。这一动 向表明，美国政策环境的重大转变正推动主流金融机构加速拓展加密货币业务版图。 在美国国会通过法案为加密代币的支付结算应用铺平道路后，花旗加入费哲金融服务(FI.US)、美国银 行(BAC.US)等传统金融机构行列，开始布局稳定币领域。稳定币是一种锚定法币(通常为美元)或其他资 产的加密货币。新法案要求稳定币发行方必须持有美国国债或现金等安全资产作为储备，这为传统托管 银行创造了资产保管与管理的业务机遇。 "我们首先考虑为稳定币储备资产提供托管服务，"花旗集团服务事业部全球合作与创新主管Biswarup Chatterjee在接受采访时表示。作为花旗核心业务单元，该事业部为大型企业提供资金管理、现金管 理、支付清算等综合金融服务。目前花旗正进行重大战略重组。 麦肯锡的一项研究显示，当前全球稳定币发行规模约2500亿美元，但主要应用于加密货币交易结算。尽 管花旗上月透露考虑发行自有稳定币，但此前从未披露其数字资产战略的全貌。 在支付创新方面，花旗正测试利用稳定币提升跨境支付效率——传统银行体系通常需要数日才能完成。 ...

V i e w p o i n t | 14 Aug 2025 20:20:43 ET │ 10 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (15): Tariff Reescalation Risk Defused for Now CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Aug 13th . Tail risks on US-China tariff reescalation should have been largely defused for now, with the truce officially extended to mid-November (MOFCOM, Aug 12th). China's overall cargo throughput recovered to 6.8%YoY in the week ending Aug 10th, with month-to-date volume trending at 3~5%YoY. C ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Global Macro Strategy** with a focus on the **US economy**, **emerging markets (EM)**, and the **impact of geopolitical events** such as the Trump/Putin meeting on market dynamics [1][5][30]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cuts**: - The combination of July US CPI and PPI data suggests a likely restart of the cutting cycle in September, with expectations for more than two cuts this year [1][2][10]. - The current inflation did not meet the high threshold to prevent a September cut, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy [2][10]. 2. **Capex Boom**: - The current capital expenditure (capex) is historically significant but not yet meaningfully above trend, suggesting it can continue to grow [3][16]. - The capex boom is compared to previous housing and tech bubbles, indicating that current AI-related investments are close to peak levels seen in past booms [16][18]. 3. **Productivity Gains**: - Rising labor productivity, particularly in the **Mag7** (major tech companies), is boosting profit margins and earnings multiples, favoring tech equities [21][22]. - The increase in sales per employee for Mag7 companies has outpaced the broader index, indicating a strong correlation with AI advancements [22]. 4. **Credit as a Hedge**: - US credit has started to underperform equities, leading to a preference for a credit underweight to hedge equity overexposure [4][25]. - The strategy suggests long equities versus short credit, capitalizing on the disparity between credit and equity performance [25][27]. 5. **Geopolitical Risks**: - The Trump/Putin meeting is expected to yield limited progress, but any minor agreements could positively impact markets, particularly Polish equities (WIG20) [5][30][35]. - The market is not pricing in significant resolution risks regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, indicating potential upside if progress is made [31][35]. 6. **Emerging Markets Strategy**: - Continued long positions in EM local and carry trades are recommended, particularly as these tend to perform well leading into Fed cuts [6][41]. - The EM carry basket includes long positions in currencies like BRL, MXN, and COP, with caution advised due to current crowding in the trade [45]. Additional Important Insights - **Inflation Dynamics**: Despite expectations for disinflation due to tariffs and currency fluctuations, inflation remains stubbornly high in many EM countries, complicating central bank strategies [48][52]. - **Market Sentiment**: There is a cautious sentiment regarding the potential for a recession, with a weaker labor market possibly leading to more aggressive Fed cuts, which could further fuel the capex boom [24][37]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The WIG20 index is highlighted as a favorable investment due to its composition and potential benefits from reconstruction efforts in the region [35][40]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into macroeconomic trends, investment strategies, and geopolitical considerations affecting the market landscape.

CITI'S TAKE Flash | In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China. Market expectations of a demand recovery have been largely cautious. Latest pecking order: aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement. Production — According to data from Mysteel, from Aug 8 to Aug 14, total China steel production was 8.7mt, +0.3% WoW and +12% YoY, of which rebar/HRC/CRC production was 2.2/3.2/0.9mt, -0.3%/+0.2%/+0.2% WoW and +32.5%/+4. ...

Group 1 - Citigroup plans to underwrite the world's first "debt-for-reconstruction" bond to help Ukraine's national power grid company refinance part of its debt under more attractive terms, with interest savings directed towards repairing war-damaged power systems [1][2] - The target size for this transaction is set between $750 million and $1 billion, marking Citigroup's entry into the ESG debt swap market, where competitors like JPMorgan, Standard Chartered, and MUFG have already established a presence [2] - Citigroup is the only Wall Street bank that has maintained operations in Ukraine since the war began, serving around 500 clients, including the Ukrainian government [2] Group 2 - The proposed bond transaction is part of a broader debt management strategy in Ukraine, which includes a $20.5 billion bond restructuring agreement reached last year, with ongoing negotiations for $2.6 billion in economic growth-linked warrants and a $700 million loan from Cargill Financial Services International [5] - Citigroup has previously signed a $100 million revolving credit agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to enhance local currency supply for Ukrainian businesses [3] - The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) may play a crucial role in mitigating geopolitical risks associated with the transaction by providing political risk insurance to reassure private investors [4]

Core Insights - Citigroup is leading the initiative to underwrite the world's first "debt-for-reconstruction" bond to support Ukraine's reconstruction market estimated at $524 billion by the World Bank [1] - The bond aims to help NPC Ukrenergo refinance part of its debt under more attractive terms, with interest savings directed towards repairing the war-damaged power system [1][2] - The financing for Ukraine's reconstruction is seen as a significant opportunity in global capital markets, with multiple international financial institutions competing for a stake [1][2] Group 1 - The "debt-for-reconstruction" swap is modeled after existing structures like "debt-for-nature" and aims for a target size between $750 million and $1 billion [2] - This transaction would mark Citigroup's entry into the ESG debt swap market, where competitors like JPMorgan, Standard Chartered, and MUFG have already established a presence [2] - Citigroup is the only major Wall Street bank still operating in Ukraine since the war began, maintaining around 500 local clients, including the Ukrainian government [2] Group 2 - In addition to the proposed bond transaction, Citigroup has engaged in other initiatives in Ukraine, including a $100 million revolving credit agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development [3] - Citigroup is also collaborating with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to develop a domestic mortgage market in Ukraine [3] - The DFC may play a crucial role in mitigating geopolitical risks associated with the debt swap transaction by providing political risk insurance [4] Group 3 - Ukraine has previously reached a $20.5 billion bond restructuring agreement but still needs to renegotiate $2.6 billion in economic growth-linked warrants and a $700 million loan from Cargill Financial Services International [5] - NPC Ukrenergo is currently restructuring its $825 million bond, which will directly benefit from the proposed debt swap [5]

Investment Recommendation - Zacks' equity strategist recommends buying JP Morgan and Citigroup stock in anticipation of potential rate cuts [1][2] - Both JPM and Citigroup stock sport a Zacks Rank number one strong buy [7] Macroeconomic Factors - Investor sentiment anticipates the Fed could cut interest rates in September following optimistic July CPI data [1] - Financials, specifically banks like JP Morgan and Citigroup, could benefit from lower rates and a steepening yield curve [2] Capital Strength and Shareholder Returns - JP Morgan and Citigroup performed well in the 2025 Dodd-Frank Act stress test, indicating strong capital positions [3] - JP Morgan's CCT1 capital ratio is 15%, and Citigroup's is 13.5%, both above the 4.5% minimum requirement [3] - JP Morgan has over $4 trillion in total assets and over $350 billion in shareholders' equity [4] - JP Morgan authorized a new $50 billion share repurchase plan and increased its quarterly dividend by 7% to $1.50 per share [4] - Citigroup authorized a $20 billion share repurchase plan and increased its quarterly dividend by 7% to $0.60 per share [4][5] Earnings Per Share (EPS) Revisions - JP Morgan's fiscal year 2025 EPS estimates have risen 5% in the last 30 days, from $18.53 to $19.50 [6] - JP Morgan's fiscal year 2026 EPS estimates are up 3% in the last 30 days, from $19.75 to $20.38 [6] - Citigroup's fiscal year 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates are up roughly 4% in the last 30 days, projecting over 27% annual earnings growth [6]

Reconstruction Funding - Citigroup is working on a deal to help Ukraine fund its reconstruction [1]

Core Insights - Citigroup is exploring involvement in stablecoins, including providing stablecoin-powered payments and custody services for assets backing stablecoins and crypto-related investment products [2] - The bank is considering issuing its own stablecoin, indicating a serious commitment to digital assets [2][3] - Citigroup's CEO highlighted the bank's blockchain-based solution for transfers using tokenized U.S. dollars, emphasizing its potential for corporate clients [3][4] Group 1: Citigroup's Stablecoin Strategy - Citigroup is looking to integrate stablecoins into the mainstream economy, potentially serving as the cash leg for tokenized financial assets and payments for SMEs and large corporates [6] - The bank's Citi Token Services (CTS) platform aims to provide real-time treasury and liquidity management using tokenized fiat currency on blockchain [4] - Citigroup expressed excitement about the new U.S. stablecoin law, which could enhance their ability to compete in the stablecoin market [5] Group 2: Industry Context - Other banks, such as JPMorgan, are also focusing on stablecoin infrastructure as part of their long-term strategies for cross-border payments and corporate treasury modernization [6][7] - JPMorgan's CEO indicated the necessity for the bank to engage more fully in the stablecoin industry due to the competitive landscape created by FinTechs [7]