Flash | 30 Oct 2025 12:19:46 ET │ 9 pages China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #156 – Thermal Coal Production and Inventory CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Sxcoal, a consultant, on 100 sample China thermal coal mines' production and inventory data during the week of 23rd to 29th Oct 2025. Latest pecking order: copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel> lithiu ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is creating a "data fog" for the Federal Reserve, making its December interest rate decision uncertain. The longer the shutdown lasts, the less likely a rate cut will occur, according to Morgan Stanley, while Citigroup remains optimistic about a resolution within two weeks, allowing for potential rate cuts [1][4][12]. Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - The duration of the government shutdown directly affects the availability of key economic data, which the Federal Reserve relies on for decision-making. A longer shutdown leads to a higher probability of pausing rate cuts [4][9]. - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that the lack of data will lead to more cautious actions, comparing the situation to "driving in fog" [3][5]. Group 2: Market Perspectives - Morgan Stanley believes that the longer the shutdown continues, the lower the chances of a rate cut, emphasizing the importance of timely data for the Fed's decisions [4][11]. - In contrast, Citigroup expresses confidence that the government will reopen within two weeks, which would provide the Fed with sufficient data to support a rate cut in December [12][16]. Group 3: Scenarios Based on Shutdown Duration - Scenario 1: If the shutdown ends next week, the Fed could receive multiple employment reports and key inflation data, supporting a rate cut decision [11]. - Scenario 2: If the shutdown ends by mid-November, the Fed may only have limited data, but state-level unemployment data could still provide some insights [11]. - Scenario 3: If the shutdown extends past Thanksgiving, the Fed may only have access to September's data, increasing the likelihood of pausing rate cuts unless strong negative signals emerge [11]. Group 4: Immediate Economic Pressures - The shutdown has already impacted social welfare programs, with the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits ceasing on November 1, affecting up to 42 million Americans [13]. - There is an impending crisis regarding military pay, as funds for military salaries are running low [14]. - Upcoming local elections may create new political momentum to resolve the shutdown [15].

Core Insights - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has experienced a continuous rally for ten months, driven by an artificial intelligence boom and a weaker dollar, resulting in a 30% increase year-to-date [1][2] - Emerging-market stocks are outperforming US peers for the first time in eight years, leading to forecasts of a multi-year rally from money managers [4] Group 1: Market Performance - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index closed October with a 4% gain, despite a 0.7% drop on the last trading day of the month [1] - Emerging-market bonds also saw gains, with the Bloomberg EM Sovereign Total Return Index of dollar bonds achieving a seventh consecutive month of increases [5] Group 2: Catalysts for Growth - Strong performance in AI-focused Asian tech stocks and a weaker dollar have prompted diversification from US assets [2] - Targeted stimulus in China has positively impacted earnings estimates, fund flows, and overall market sentiment [2] Group 3: Sector Composition - Emerging-market equities are increasingly diversified beyond traditional sectors like banks and commodities, with significant representation from tech, consumer, and medical sectors [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's potential decision not to lower interest rates in December has created uncertainty, leading to modest profit-taking in select asset classes [4] - A trade truce between China and the US has contributed to a perceived easing of tariff frictions, benefiting risk assets [5][6]

美国政府的持续停摆，正让美联储陷入一场"数据迷雾"，其12月的利率决策也因此变得悬而未决。 在最近一次议息会议后，美联储主席鲍威尔的表态强化了市场的谨慎预期。据追风交易台消息，花旗和摩根士丹利的最新报告显示，鲍威尔一 改此前的鸽派立场，措辞强硬地表示12月降息"远非定局"。 他将当前缺乏数据的处境比作"在迷雾中驾驶"，并直言"如果你在雾中开车，你会怎么做？你会慢下来。"这一比喻被市场解读为明确的信号： 数据缺失可能导致美联储在行动上更加谨慎。 由于政府关门导致关键经济数据无法按时发布，依赖数据做决策的美联储正面临越来越大的不确定性。 目前，华尔街对此看法不一。摩根士丹利认为，关门时间越长，降息概率越低。而花旗则对政府停摆在两周内结束抱有信心，并预计美联储将 如期降息。 数据真空下的"迷雾驾驶" 鲍威尔的"迷雾驾驶"论，凸显了美联储在数据真空下的政策困境。据摩根士丹利报告，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上强调，货币政策"并未预设路径"， 并将"越来越依赖数据"。这一立场转变，发生在他宣布降息25个基点的同时，显得尤为鹰派。 花旗的分析师Andrew Hollenhorst团队认为，鲍威尔的鹰派言论可能是为了在意见分歧的美联 ...

Citigroup has held talks with Banco Fomento de Angola about providing dollar and euro clearing services to the African nation’s second-largest bank, according to people familiar with the matter https://t.co/U5zhllvPLI ...

In today’s CEO Daily: Geoff Colvin on CEOs who are also board chairs. The big story: OpenAI IPO coming. The markets: U.S. futures are up; global markets are mixed. Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune. When Citigroup last week gave CEO Jane Fraser the additional role of board of directors’ chair, the event was a widely covered ho-hum. CEOs are often board chairs as well, and the move merely gave her the same positions held by JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon and Goldman Sachs’s David Solo ...

Summary of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan (15th FYP) Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Fifteenth Five-Year Plan (15th FYP)** of China, focusing on economic rebalancing and technological self-reliance as key priorities. Key Points and Arguments 1. Economic Rebalancing - The **CPC's Suggestion** for the 15th FYP emphasizes a clearer intention for economic rebalancing, aiming to increase the consumption share in GDP [1][4][5] - The philosophy of consumption policy has shifted from a supply-centric approach to a more balanced supply-and-demand perspective [5][15] 2. Consumption Policy - The Suggestion explicitly targets a **significant increase in household consumption share** and aims to strengthen domestic demand as a leading driver of economic growth [8][18] - The plan includes discussions on welfare, social security, and common prosperity, addressing weak links in the current system [5][18] 3. Layered Industrial and Innovation Policies - The policy focus for traditional sectors will be on quality improvement, while emerging sectors like **new energy** will see efforts to strengthen and scale development [11][12] - The plan includes unconventional measures for key sectors and basic research, such as higher R&D expense deduction ratios and government procurement of innovative products [12][11] 4. Supply-and-Demand Balance in Consumption - The new consumption policy emphasizes both demand-side factors (employment, income, expectations) and supply-side support (expanding high-quality goods and services) [15][16] - Restrictions on auto and housing consumption are to be cleared to stimulate demand during economic downturns [15][16] 5. Welfare and Common Prosperity - The Suggestion aims to increase the household income share in national income and improve social security systems, including pensions and unemployment insurance [18][19] - Housing supply, particularly affordable housing, is highlighted as a key welfare issue [18][19] 6. Anti-Involution and Fiscal Policies - The term "involution" is addressed, focusing on the need for a **national unified market** and the regulation of local governments to prevent protectionism [21][22] - Fiscal policies will be proactive, with an emphasis on enhancing fiscal sustainability and regulating tax preferential policies [23][24] 7. Opening-Up and RMB Internationalization - The Suggestion reiterates the importance of institutional and services opening-up, with a supportive tone towards foreign direct investment (FDI) [23][24] - The plan aims to establish a **cross-border payment system for RMB**, indicating a more proactive approach to RMB internationalization compared to previous plans [24][23] Other Important Content - The conference call indicates that the full document of the 15th FYP will be approved by the NPC in early March 2026, with ongoing policy communications expected [4][5] - The market focus is anticipated to shift towards actual policy measures and their magnitudes in the coming weeks and months [4][5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and strategic directions outlined in the conference call regarding China's 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the emphasis on economic rebalancing, consumption, innovation, and welfare improvements.

Key Takeaways Goldman is exiting consumer banking to focus on investment banking, and asset and wealth management. Citigroup is streamlining global operations, exiting non-core markets and refocusing on core businesses. Citigroup trades at a lower P/E and offers a higher dividend yield, signaling better value than Goldman. On Wall Street, transformation is no longer a buzzword — it is a survival strategy. Both The Goldman Sachs Group (GS) and Citigroup, Inc.  (C) are reinventing themselves for a new era of ...

Citibank surprised markets by lowering its base lending rate from 7.25% to 7.00% on Wednesday. This isn't just a technical adjustment; it's a move with real consequences for consumers, businesses, and the broader economy. ...

Citigroup Inc. (C), based in New York City, stands out as a global financial powerhouse with operations in more than 160 countries and jurisdictions. Its wide-ranging services cover retail and commercial banking, credit cards, investment and wealth management, and treasury solutions, serving millions of customers worldwide.  With a market capitalization of $182.47 billion, Citi navigates the world’s financial landscape by integrating technology and market expertise to offer seamless cross-border and local ...