围绕即将公布的1月非农就业报告，巴克莱与花旗在当月新增就业预测上明显分歧，但在更关键的问题上形成高度共识 ——2025年美国就业被系统性高估，而年度基准修正将一次性暴露这一偏差，市场对就业下行风险的定价明显不足。 表面分歧：1月非农"强or弱"，两家投行给出不同答案 在具体预测上，两家投行的分歧相当显眼： 巴克莱预计1月非农仅新增5万人，私人部门增幅同样约5万人，政府部门基本持平，失业率因四舍五入与供 需缺口影响小幅回落至4.3%。 花旗则预计新增13.5万人，私人部门新增约14万人，明显高于市场共识（约7万人），失业率维持在4.4%。 但值得注意的是，两家投行都明确指出：1月就业数据本身的信息含量偏低。 巴克莱的判断最为直接，基于最新QCEW数据，2025年3月非农就业水平或被下修约100万人，意味着过去一年月均就 业被高估8–9万人。 花旗则从数据"质量"角度提出警告，即便1月非农表面偏强，也很可能源于残余季节性与模型偏差，并不代表就业企 稳；真正反映下行趋势的信号，更可能在春夏阶段集中显现。 换言之，市场仍在围绕"1月非农好不好"博弈，但真正可能重塑就业叙事的，是一次对2025年就业水平的系统性重估。 ...

来源：观点地产网 展望2月，该行预计赌收为205亿澳门元，同比增长4%，日均约7.32亿澳门元；同时提到2月将因农历新 年出现季节性疲软，淡季或从2月3日持续至2月18日。此外，经调整农历新年时段差异后，该行预测1至 2月合并赌收为431亿澳门元，同比增长13.5%。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 观点网讯：2月2日，花旗发表研报对澳门博彩收入作出预测及回顾。该行指出，2026年1月澳门赌收达 226.33亿澳门元，同比增长24%，达到2019年同月水平约91%，数据较市场预测高约5%。 ...

在全球流动性有所收紧、比特币及大宗商品集体下挫的背景下，此前一路狂飙的黄金正面临严峻的价值重估。 据追风交易台消息，花旗研究在1月30日的最新大宗商品研报中指出，当前的黄金价格已严重透支了未来的不确定性。 该行全球大宗商品主管Maximilian Layton认为，虽然短期内金价仍有冲高可能，但其估值已达到"极端水平"。随着2026年下半年避险情绪的集体 消退，支撑金价的"支柱"可能面临结构性坍塌。 多项历史指标拉响估值"红灯" 花旗在报告中通过多维建模展示了当前金价的泡沫化特征。 首先是与实体经济的脱钩：目前全球对黄金的年度支出占GDP比例已飙升至0.7%，这是过去55年来的最高水平，远超1980年石油危机时期。 同时，当前的金价已完全脱离了采矿业的边际生产成本。研报显示，高成本金矿商的利润率正处于50年来的最高水平。 即便是在极端通胀预期的背景下，黄金与全球广义货币（Broad Money）供应量的比率也已升至16%，甚至高于1970年代初第一次石油危机的高 点。 "如果黄金配置比例仅回归到历史常态的GDP占比（0.35%-0.4%），在其他条件不变的情况下，金价将从目前水平近乎腰斩，回落至 2500-3 ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 01 Feb 2026 19:35:05 ET │ 11 pages Hong Kong Economics 4Q25 GDP: Solidifying Recovery CITI'S TAKE Hong Kong's economy demonstrated a solidifying recovery in 4Q25A, exceeding expectations with 3.8% GDP growth driven by a significant surge in investments (GFCF) and improved consumption. While net trade detracted from growth due to higher imports, services exports showed resilience. We are again raising our 2026E real GDP forecast to 3.2% (+0.2ppt), on top of the 0.5ppt upgrade we made back ...

1月30日（周五），花旗（Citi）警告大宗商品市场的风险正不断攀升--尽管分析师认为铜市基本面疲 软，但本周铜价仍大幅上涨，同时原油与黄金市场也因中东地区紧张局势升级出现异动。 花旗金属研究主管Tom Mulqueen因在周四首次发布的研报中表示，受贵金属涨势带动下的资金流入， 以及美元走弱两大因素推动，未来几周铜价或攀升至 15,000-16,000美元/吨。 周四，铜价突破花旗设定的14,000美元短期目标，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价一度触及14,400美元，不 过当日晚些时候铜价大幅回落，且跌势在周五延续。 然而 ,Mulqueen提醒，此次铜价上涨正与实物需求愈发脱节。 他表示："我们对短期铜价走势的判断信心不足。" 并补充称，中国以外地区的抛售行为，加之"疲软的 实物市场基本面"，均预示铜价大概率将出现回调。 花旗预测2026年铜均价为13,000美元/吨。 在能源市场方面，大宗商品研究全球主管Maximilian Layton表示，油价仍易受中东地区紧张局势影响， 伊朗周边的局势尤为关键。 美国或会采取行动削弱伊朗的导弹与核能力，但市场预计双方均会避免爆发全面冲突。 （文华综合） ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 花旗预计，到2026年下半年，经济和地缘政治风险都将从目前极高的水平回落，这将为黄金市场降温。 ...

Citigroup Inc.’s India unit has hired Ankur Khurana as head of commercial banking as the Wall Street Bank seeks to beef up its business with the country’s rapidly expanding mid-sized companies, according to people familiar with the matter. Khurana had been pursuing opportunities with a few other institutions after working at Standard Chartered Plc, where she was co-head of coverage for India and South Asia, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is not yet public. She has ov ...

Khurana joins Citigroup after a stint at Standard Chartered Plc, where she served as co-head of coverage for India and South Asia. She had been in discussions with several financial institutions following her exit from the UK-based bank, as per Bloomberg reported.Khurana brings more than 20 years of experience across corporate and commercial banking.The role became vacant after Bhanu Vohra, a long-serving banker at Citi, left the firm in July to join the Indian arm of global consulting firm BDO. as a Relia ...

Key Takeaways Citigroup is positioned for more upside in 2026 as its multi-year transformation reaches an inflection point.C's 2026 outlook shows faster EPS growth and NII gains, backed by cost cuts and exits.Wells Fargo benefits from the lifted asset cap, but its 2026 growth outlook appears less compelling.A few major players dominate the U.S. banking sector, among which Citigroup Inc. (C) and Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) are prominent. Both have remained the key competitors in the banking sector, and faced ...

Core Insights - Citigroup, led by CEO Jane Fraser, is proactively implementing mandatory AI training for its 175,000 employees across 80 global locations to help them adapt to the changing workplace dynamics brought about by AI technology [2][3][4]. Group 1: AI Training Implementation - Citigroup has confirmed that it sent a memo to its 175,000 employees, mandating AI training with a focus on prompt engineering to alleviate fears and misconceptions about AI tools [3]. - The training aims to enhance employees' skills in using AI tools effectively, which is expected to benefit their work and lives significantly [3][4]. - Fraser emphasizes that the training is not just an investment in employees' livelihoods but also a strategic move for the company, as about 50% of new positions are filled by internal employees [4]. Group 2: Training Outcomes and Effectiveness - The AI training program has shown significant results, with employees inputting over 6.5 million prompts into the company's AI tools last year [4]. - The internal memo indicated that the use of AI has drastically reduced the time required for tasks, with some jobs that previously took hours now completed in minutes [4]. - By Q4 2025, the usage rate of Citigroup's proprietary AI tools is projected to reach 70%, with over 21 million interactions from employees across 84 countries [4]. Group 3: Employee Perspective and Support - The training initiative is designed to reassure employees that AI is a collaborative partner rather than a threat to their careers [5]. - Experts suggest that such training is crucial in reinforcing the understanding that AI acts as a co-pilot in the workplace, rather than a replacement for human roles [5].