【花旗称美债收益率曲线料受短债推动趋陡】12月15日，花旗利率策略师在报告中指出，受短债推动， 美债收益率曲线预计将趋陡。在"牛市趋陡"情形下，短期利率比长期利率下降更快。 策略师表示，因 失业人数增加或劳动力参与率持续反弹，失业率上升风险增大，其对2026年牛市持趋陡倾向。 花旗策 略师认为，市场应已消化美联储今年下半年进一步降息预期，这会使曲线中间部分保持稳定。在强劲背 景、鸽派美联储及供应担忧加剧影响下，收益率曲线会进一步趋陡。 扫码查看原文 和讯猎报 12.15 14:42:15 周- 花旗:美债收益率曲线料因短债推动 趋陡 【花旗称美债收益率曲线料受短债推动趋陡】 12月 15日,花旗利率策略师在报告中指出,受短债推 动,美债收益率曲线预计将趋陡。在"牛市趋 陡"情形下,短期利率比长期利率下降更快。策略 师表示,因失业人数增加或劳动力参与率持续反 弹,失业率上升风险增大,其对2026年牛市持趋陡 倾向。花旗策略师认为,市场应已消化美联储今年 下半年进一步降息预期,这会使曲线中间部分保持 稳定。在强劲背景、鸽派美联储及供应担忧加剧影 响下,收益率曲线会进一步趋陡。 本文由 Al 算法生成，仅作参考，不 ...

12月15日，花旗集团大中华经济师雷智颜预期，明年香港经济活动复苏会更快，但增速会稍为减慢，因 为基数较高的情况下，GDP明年上半年增长预测为2.2%，下半年加快至2.9%，全年增长2.5%。 花旗预测恒指明年中旬升见27500点，年底更有望攀至28800点。未来两大风险因素，其一为地缘政治的 持续不明朗；第二是香港和内地加快融合，意味着更大的行业竞争，中小企和饮食业面临营运、利润压 力会较明显。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 花旗预计美联储明年进一步降息，将有助HIBOR保持在较低水平，支持香港住宅价格在明年增长3%， 商厦则会继续受压。 ...

12月11日，"花旗私人银行"官方微信平台最新发布的首席投资官周报透露，本周，花旗财富全球投资委 员会召开会议，增持了美国大盘股和黄金，减持了中国以外的亚洲新兴市场股票以及发达市场高收益债 券。 花旗私人银行方面认为，这些调整预计将顺应宏观经济形势向好的趋势，并在审慎管理风险的同时，保 持投资组合的多元化。 维持对中国市场的超配 减持发达市场高收益债券 固定收益方面，美联储今年已降息75个基点以支持劳动力市场，但通胀率仍高于目标水平。花旗方面预 计，宽松的货币政策、赤字支出以及不断进行的关税传导效应，将进一步推高通胀。 花旗团队指出，尽管即将上任的美联储主席预计将持鸽派立场，美国及全球长期债券收益率却持续攀 升。这一市场动态印证了其维持略短于基准久期的偏好。 在信贷配置方面，花旗专注于优化债券组合的整体质量，减持了发达市场高收益债券。该团队倾向于将 风险敞口转移至股票市场，而非利差已接近历史低位的低质量债券。同时，利用这部分仓位进一步增持 了黄金。鉴于当前收益率面临上行压力，花旗私人银行认为，黄金作为投资组合的风险对冲工具和长期 债券的有效替代品，表现持续强劲。 花旗预计，在政策宽松和全球经济活动温和改善的推 ...

来源：滚动播报 英国金融时报分析指出，下周二公布的美国非农就业报告将包含10月和11月的数据，最终为政策制定者 和投资者提供更完整的美国劳动力市场图景，结束数月来的部分盲飞状态。美联储在本周分歧严重的会 议后将利率降至三年低点，数位官员持异议，争论焦点在于应优先应对高通胀还是疲软的就业市场。花 旗集团经济学家指出，即将公布的最新就业报告可能释放更多矛盾信号。该行预计10月就业岗位减少约 4.5万个，但11月将增加8万个。花旗经济学家表示，这种反弹可能更多与基于季节性的数据调整有关， 而非"工人需求的真正改善"。他们还预测失业率将从4.4%升至4.52%，而路透社对经济学家的调查显示 失业率为4.4%。美联储自身的季度预测显示，今年年底失业率中值约为4.5%。 ...

华尔街多家大行看空美元！ 日前，多家华尔街大行表示，随着美联储继续推进降息周期，美元将在明年恢复下跌态势。摩根士丹利 G10外汇策略主管戴维·亚当斯表示，该行预计美元明年上半年将下跌5%。 华尔街大行看空美元 据彭博社消息，德意志银行、摩根士丹利、高盛集团等华尔街大行预测，美元将在明年恢复下跌态势。 今年上半年，受特朗普政府发起的贸易战冲击，美元创下20世纪70年代初以来最深跌幅，但在过去六个 月中逐渐企稳。 不过，策略师们预计美元将在2026年再次走弱，因美联储继续放宽货币政策，而其他主要央行则保持利 率稳定或转向加息。这种政策分化将促使投资者抛售美国债券，将资金转向收益率更高的国家。 因此，多家主要投资银行的预测机构普遍认为，美元兑日元、欧元和英镑等主要货币将走低。彭博社汇 总的预测中值显示，一项备受关注的美元指数到2026年底将下跌约3%。 不过，也有少数机构持相反观点。花旗集团和渣打银行的分析师认为，由人工智能繁荣驱动的美国经济 依然保持强劲，有望持续吸引国际资本流入，从而支撑美元汇率。"我们认为2026年美元周期复苏潜力 强劲。"花旗团队在年度展望中写道。 "市场有充分的空间为更深入的降息周期定价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street banks are bearish on the US dollar, predicting a decline as the Federal Reserve continues its easing cycle, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a 5% drop in the first half of next year [1][2]. Group 1: Predictions on the US Dollar - Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs anticipate a weakening of the dollar in 2026 due to the Fed's continued easing while other central banks maintain or raise rates [2]. - The Bloomberg consensus predicts a 3% decline in the dollar index by the end of 2026 [2]. - Morgan Stanley's David Adams states that the dollar has ample room for further depreciation, expecting a 5% drop in the first half of next year [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - A weaker dollar is expected to have a chain reaction on the US economy, increasing import costs, enhancing the value of overseas profits for companies, and boosting exports [4]. - The shift of investor funds to emerging markets for higher yields could extend the rally in these markets, with significant returns recorded in carry trades since 2009 [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Currency Trends - Analysts note that the dollar tends to depreciate when global economic performance is strong, with G10 currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars benefiting from better-than-expected data [5]. - Some institutions, like Citigroup and Standard Chartered, maintain a bullish outlook on the dollar, citing the strength of the US economy driven by AI and potential international capital inflows [5]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve has raised its growth forecast for 2026 while announcing a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [6]. - Market expectations include two more 25 basis point cuts next year, with a focus on the new Fed chair's potential influence on future rate decisions [6].

RT Consumers' Research (@ConsumersFirst)BREAKING: The U.S. Comptroller of the Currency has found conclusive proof that 9 large financial institutions actively engaged in debanking.The financial institutions named are:- @JPMorgan- @BankofAmerica- @Citi- @WellsFargo- @USBank- @CapitalOne- @PNCBank- @TDBank_US- @BMOhttps://t.co/VOyOGjbsJC ...

Group 1 - JPMorgan upgraded Citigroup from Neutral to Overweight and raised its price target to $124 from $107, citing expectations for improving profitability driven by a solid economic backdrop and strong market activity [1] - Citigroup is positioned to benefit more than peers from favorable macro conditions due to its revenue mix, with ongoing transformation efforts expected to enhance returns [2] - Factors such as progress on regulatory consent orders, a declining efficiency ratio, reductions in stranded costs, and the continued drawdown of deferred tax assets are expected to support a steady improvement in Citigroup's profitability over time [2][3] Group 2 - These initiatives should drive returns on tangible common equity higher relative to peers [3]

Financial institutions extended ¥392 billion ($55.6 billion) of new yuan loans in the month, falling short of economists' median forecast of ¥450 billion , based on data released by the Household loans contracted for a second straight month in November, the first time in data going back to 2005, indicating a prolonged period of net repayment of debt from residents. A bleak job market and deteriorating housing market means individuals are focusing on paying down their debt, which threatens to slow growth fu ...

Financial giants have made a conspicuous bearish move on Citigroup. Our analysis of options history for Citigroup (NYSE:C) revealed 68 unusual trades.Delving into the details, we found 39% of traders were bullish, while 54% showed bearish tendencies. Out of all the trades we spotted, 11 were puts, with a value of $837,413, and 57 were calls, valued at $9,211,701.Projected Price TargetsBased on the trading activity, it appears that the significant investors are aiming for a price territory stretching from $4 ...