摩根士丹利最新研报显示，该行认为铝业的前景已有所改善，这得益于储能系统带来的需求远超其预 期，以及电力问题带来的供应挑战。因此，大摩目前预计中国宏桥盈利将有更大的增长空间。在此基础 上，大摩将中国宏桥目标价从30.6港元上调至44.7港元，并重申为首选股与"增持"评级。 智通财经APP获悉，中国宏桥(01378)盘中涨超5%，截至发稿，涨3.91%，报30.82港元，成交额9.4亿港 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378.HK) has been actively signaling its value to the capital market, highlighted by a recent placement of 400 million shares raising nearly HKD 11.7 billion, aimed at optimizing its capital structure and advancing domestic and overseas projects [1] Group 1: Market Position and Index Inclusion - China Hongqiao was included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, effective December 8, which reflects the overall performance of Chinese enterprises listed in Hong Kong [1][2] - The inclusion is significant as the index consists of a fixed number of 50 constituents, and China Hongqiao's market capitalization was nearly double that of the other two newly added stocks, indicating a strong competitive position [2][3] - The company’s weight in the index will be 0.91%, and its proportion in the Hang Seng Index will increase from 0.52% to 0.63% following the change [3] Group 2: Growth and Investment Appeal - China Hongqiao has demonstrated accelerated growth as an industry leader during favorable market conditions, attracting various investment styles from both institutional and retail investors [2][3] - The company is one of only two materials sector firms in the index, underscoring its representative and significant role within the industry [2] - Following its inclusion, China Hongqiao is expected to attract more passive investment flows, enhancing market attention and trading activity [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Historical performance of newly included stocks in the index shows substantial price increases post-inclusion, with examples like Zijin Mining seeing over a 60% rise since its addition [5] - With a solid fundamental base and positive market sentiment, China Hongqiao is anticipated to be included in more indices, leading to greater institutional investment inflows and accelerating the value discovery process [5]

其次，大摩还指出，供应面临挑战。在新的供应方面，大摩预计2026年全球产量将达到约140万吨。印 度尼西亚是一个重要的新供应来源国，它拥有铝土矿、煤炭和氧化铝，因此是铝的理想产地。然而，中 国在2021年承诺不会在境外新建任何火力发电设施，以实现碳中和目标。中国企业将需要找到当地的合 作伙伴为其提供电力。电力建设可能需要相当长的时间，即18至24个月。因此，尽管印度尼西亚有大量 铝产能的建设规划，但实际产量却相当缓慢。大摩估计2026年印度尼西亚的新增供应量仅为70万吨。此 外，由于电力问题导致了供应风险，今年全球范围内出现了几次生产中断事件，约70万吨的产能。因 此，大摩预计2026年全球将出现供应短缺。 此外，库存也非常低。目前中国铝的库存仅为60万吨，与过去五年的历史水平相比相对较低。此外，政 府鼓励将熔融铝的比例从目前的约77%提高到2027年的90%，这可能会导致期货市场上可交付的铝锭减 少，从而支撑铝价。 首先，大摩表示，中国铝的需求将因ESS及其他消费电子产品而实现显著增长：随着ESS的增长速度大 幅加快，其使用的铝量也在增加。6月份，ESS在中国整体电池装机量中的占比仅为25%，但此后已增 长 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报，认为铝业的前景已有所改善，这得益于储能系统(ESS)带来 的需求远超其预期，以及电力问题带来的供应挑战。因此，大摩目前预计中国宏桥(01378)盈利将有更 大的增长空间。在此基础上，大摩将中国宏桥目标价从30.6港元上调至44.7港元，并重申为首选股与"增 持"评级。 其次，大摩还指出，供应面临挑战。在新的供应方面，大摩预计 2026 年全球产量将达到约 140万吨。 印度尼西亚是一个重要的新供应来源国，它拥有铝土矿、煤炭和氧化铝，因此是铝的理想产地。然而， 中国在 2021 年承诺不会在境外新建任何火力发电设施，以实现碳中和目标。中国企业将需要找到当地 的合作伙伴为其提供电力。电力建设可能需要相当长的时间，即 18 至 24 个月。因此，尽管印度尼西亚 有大量铝产能的建设规划，但实际产量却相当缓慢。大摩估计 2026 年印度尼西亚的新增供应量仅为70 万吨。此外，由于电力问题导致了供应风险，今年全球范围内出现了几次生产中断事件，约70万吨的产 能。因此，大摩预计 2026 年全球将出现供应短缺。 此外，库存也非常低。目前中国铝的库存仅为60万吨，与过去五年的历史水平相 ...

Group 1 - The company plans to issue up to 400 million shares at a price of HKD 29.2 per share, raising a maximum of HKD 11.68 billion, which represents a discount of approximately 9.6% from the previous trading day's closing price [1] - The funds raised will be used to optimize the capital structure and support the development of domestic and overseas projects, including a significant aluminum production capacity in China and a joint venture in Guinea [1] - The company is expected to maintain a stable performance in 2026-2027, supported by a strong outlook for aluminum prices and an improved capital structure, which may facilitate continued high dividend policies [1] Group 2 - The company is actively pursuing a "large-scale buyback + high dividend" strategy, having repurchased 1.87 million shares for HKD 2.6 billion in the first half of the year and planning a new round of buybacks totaling at least HKD 3 billion [2] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio above 45% since 2020, with ratios of 46.8%, 47.0%, and 63.4% over the past three years, reflecting confidence in future growth and commitment to shareholder returns [2] Group 3 - The profit margins in the electrolytic aluminum sector are expected to continue expanding, potentially offsetting downward pressure from alumina prices, as domestic production capacity is strictly limited while demand remains strong [3] - The company’s main businesses include alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with alumina prices currently at a low point, limiting the potential for significant further declines [3] - The company maintains optimistic profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of CNY 25.625 billion, CNY 25.426 billion, and CNY 25.760 billion, respectively, and a target price of HKD 35.22 based on a 12X PE ratio [3]

另一个支持小摩对中国宏桥乐观看法的因素是其展示了对股东回报的重视。事实上，宏桥集团的6%以 上的股息收益率为股价提供了坚实的支撑。 该行仍然看好铝业股票，并预计近期波动性较大，预计2026财年的收益增长为10-16%。该行认为，宏 桥的估值在当下被低估。中国宏桥作为中国铝业（601600）的重要生产商之一，预计将从这一趋势中受 益，维持健康的边际利润。此外，中国宏桥的低生产成本优势使其在全球同行中更具竞争力。 尽管中国宏桥(01378)达到近期高点后回调，但小摩认为这对投资者而已是一个买入良机，该行对2026 年铝行业的前景持建设性态度。小摩维持中国宏桥的"增持"评级，并将目标价从26.5港元上调至34港 元。 小摩对2026年铝行业的前景持建设性态度，这一前景受到全球需求的韧性、铜价上涨的幅度和健康的冶 炼利润率的支持。小摩的基本预测是，来自印尼的新供应将在2026年带来适度的过剩，但潜在的供应中 断风险和海外重启速度的放缓可能会使市场比其基本预测更紧张。 ...

另一个支持小摩对中国宏桥乐观看法的因素是其展示了对股东回报的重视。事实上，宏桥集团的6%以 上的股息收益率为股价提供了坚实的支撑。 小摩对2026年铝行业的前景持建设性态度，这一前景受到全球需求的韧性、铜价上涨的幅度和健康的冶 炼利润率的支持。小摩的基本预测是，来自印尼的新供应将在2026年带来适度的过剩，但潜在的供应中 断风险和海外重启速度的放缓可能会使市场比其基本预测更紧张。 该行仍然看好铝业股票，并预计近期波动性较大，预计2026财年的收益增长为10-16%。该行认为，宏 桥的估值在当下被低估。中国宏桥作为中国铝业的重要生产商之一，预计将从这一趋势中受益，维持健 康的边际利润。此外，中国宏桥的低生产成本优势使其在全球同行中更具竞争力。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管中国宏桥(01378)达到近期高点后回调，但小摩认为这对投资者而已是一个买入 良机，该行对2026年铝行业的前景持建设性态度。小摩维持中国宏桥的"增持"评级，并将目标价从26.5 港元上调至34港元。 ...

中国宏桥以先旧后新方式配售4亿股新股，每股作价29.2港元，预计净集资约114.9亿港元。摩根士丹利 认为部分募集资金将用于股份回购以提升股东回报和支持股价，并对铝价前景持乐观态度，主要因供应 增长有限和需求尤其是储能领域需求强劲。稳健的基本面预计将推动宏桥2026年盈利表现，大摩维 持"增持"评级，目标价为30.6港元。 ...

Group 1 - China Hongqiao announced a placement of 400 million shares at a price of HKD 29.2 per share, representing approximately 4.03% of the enlarged share capital, with expected net fundraising of about HKD 11.49 billion [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that part of the raised funds will be used for share buybacks in the market to enhance shareholder returns and support the stock price [1] - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about aluminum price prospects due to limited supply growth, both domestically (restricted by government production caps) and internationally (mainly constrained by power supply), alongside resilient demand, particularly from the energy storage sector [1] Group 2 - The robust industrial fundamentals are expected to support further increases in aluminum prices, which will boost Hongqiao's earnings performance in 2026 [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Hongqiao with a target price of HKD 30.6 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 35.22 [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to continue its high profitability and high dividend policy, supported by a strong capital structure and stable performance in the aluminum sector [1][4] - The planned placement of up to 400 million shares at HKD 29.2 per share aims to raise a maximum of HKD 11.68 billion, which will be used to optimize the capital structure and support domestic and overseas project development [2][4] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns through significant share buybacks and consistent high dividend payouts, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 45% since 2020 [3][4] Summary by Sections Capital Structure and Project Development - The placement will primarily fund domestic and overseas projects and further optimize the company's debt structure, with existing capacities of 6.46 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 19 million tons of alumina domestically, and 2 million tons of alumina capacity in Indonesia [2][4] Shareholder Returns - The company has executed a significant share buyback strategy, spending HKD 2.6 billion to repurchase 18.7 million shares in the first half of the year, with plans for an additional buyback of at least HKD 3 billion [3][4] Profitability Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to maintain profitability despite downward pressure from alumina prices, with a tightening supply-demand balance anticipated by 2026 [4][5] - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 25.63 billion, RMB 25.43 billion, and RMB 25.76 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE ratio of 12X for 2025 [5][11]