Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests focusing on three stock selection criteria in the electrolytic aluminum industry: companies with high capacity-to-market value ratio and significant earnings elasticity with rising aluminum prices, those with overseas expansion capabilities and strong growth potential, and prioritizing companies with high alumina self-sufficiency rates amid current low alumina prices [1] Group 1: Stock Recommendations - CICC maintains a "outperform industry" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), raising the target price from 29.29 HKD to 42.79 HKD [1] - Recommended stocks include: China Hongqiao, Nanshan Aluminum (600219) International H-share (02610/target price 77.76 HKD), Nanshan Aluminum A-share (600219.SH/target price 7.25 RMB), China Aluminum (601600) (02600/target price 17.04 HKD), Tianshan Aluminum (002532) (002532.SZ/target price 22.67 RMB), and Huatong Cable (605196), all rated "outperform industry" [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Chinese aluminum companies are accelerating their overseas expansion due to domestic bauxite shortages and production capacity limits since 2017, with early movers gaining competitive advantages in resource-rich regions [2] - Companies like China Hongqiao are targeting low-cost regions, particularly in Indonesia, for alumina sourcing, while Guinea's bauxite mining is expected to produce around 170 million tons by 2025, with China Hongqiao projected to be the largest producer at 71 million tons [2] Group 3: Price and Cost Dynamics - The aluminum price increase benefits all electrolytic aluminum companies, with those having a high capacity-to-market value ratio showing greater potential for price appreciation [3] - Companies with alumina self-sufficiency above 100% can benefit from rising alumina prices, as it becomes an internalized cost, leading to increased sales profits [3] - Companies with high self-generated electricity ratios, like China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum, are positioned to benefit from falling coal prices, while those with lower ratios face greater cost sensitivity [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for aluminum prices is positive, driven by a growing supply-demand gap and supportive global fiscal and monetary policies, with potential for significant profit expansion as costs remain low [5] - China Hongqiao, Yun Aluminum (000807), and Zhongfu Industrial (600595) are identified as companies with relatively high valuation elasticity, expected to rank among the top performers in 2025 with projected price increases of 177%, 134%, and 171% respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests focusing on three key stock selection criteria in the electrolytic aluminum industry: companies with high capacity-to-market value ratios and significant earnings elasticity from rising aluminum prices, those with strong overseas expansion capabilities, and prioritizing companies with high alumina self-sufficiency rates amid potential production shutdowns and policy changes [1] Group 1: Stock Selection Criteria - Companies with high capacity-to-market value ratios will benefit more from rising aluminum prices [1] - Firms with overseas expansion capabilities are expected to show stronger growth [1] - Companies with high alumina self-sufficiency rates are preferred, especially as alumina prices have reached a low point [1] Group 2: Company Recommendations - China Hongqiao (01378) is rated "outperform" with a target price raised from 29.29 HKD to 42.79 HKD [1] - Other recommended stocks include Nanshan Aluminum International H shares (02610, target price 77.76 HKD), Nanshan Aluminum A shares (600219.SH, target price 7.25 RMB), China Aluminum (02600, target price 17.04 HKD), Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ, target price 22.67 RMB), and Huatong Cable, all rated "outperform" [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - Chinese aluminum companies are accelerating their overseas expansion due to domestic bauxite shortages and production capacity limits since 2017 [2] - Companies like China Hongqiao are establishing a presence in low-cost regions, particularly in Indonesia [2] - Guinea's bauxite mining is becoming increasingly active, with projections of 170 million tons by 2025, and China Hongqiao expected to be the largest producer in Guinea [2] Group 4: Price and Cost Dynamics - The aluminum price increase benefits all electrolytic aluminum companies, with those having a high capacity-to-market value ratio showing greater valuation elasticity [3] - Companies with alumina self-sufficiency above 100% will see increased profits from alumina sales as prices rise [3] - Companies with high self-generated electricity ratios, like China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum, will benefit more from falling coal prices compared to those with lower ratios [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - The industry anticipates a significant revaluation opportunity due to rising aluminum prices and expanding profit margins per ton of aluminum [5] - The supply-demand gap in electrolytic aluminum is expected to widen, supported by favorable fiscal and monetary policies globally [5] - The average valuation for electrolytic aluminum companies is projected to remain around 10 times, indicating substantial upward revaluation potential [5]

Group 1: Industry Overview - Bank of America has identified aluminum as its "top recommended commodity" for China's basic materials sector in 2026, forecasting aluminum prices to rise to 22,500 yuan/ton, a 9% year-on-year increase, leading to historically high profit margins in the industry [1] - The aluminum market is expected to benefit from a tight supply-demand balance, with China's aluminum production capacity capped at 45 million tons and slow expansion of new capacity in Indonesia due to power constraints [2] - Demand for aluminum is projected to grow by 3% annually, driven by investments in power grids, energy storage systems, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure [2] Group 2: Company Analysis - China Hongqiao, a leading player in the aluminum industry, is highlighted for its low-cost advantage and high dividend yield, making it one of Bank of America's top five stock picks in the Chinese commodities sector, with a target price set at 45 HKD [1][3] - The company is expected to see strong short-term profitability as aluminum prices remain robust, with the West Manganese Iron Ore project set to contribute to earnings starting in 2026 [3] - China Hongqiao's unique vertical integration model positions it in the lowest cost curve globally, with a projected dividend yield of approximately 7% in 2026, indicating strong cash flow generation and high earnings resilience [3]

智通财经APP获悉，美国银行发表最新研报表示，将铝列为其2026年中国基础材料行业的"首选推荐品 种"，预计中国铝价将攀升至2.25万元/吨，同比上涨9%，行业将迎来历史高位利润率。而作为全球铝业 龙头企业，中国宏桥(01378)凭借低成本优势和高股息率，成为美银在整个中国大宗领域的首推5只股票 之一，目标价看至45港元。 中国宏桥多维优势凸显，估值重构潜力可期 作为美银重点推荐的铝企龙头，中国宏桥的投资价值集中体现在三大维度：短期盈利可见性强，长期成 本和股息状况优异。 美银表示，短期来看，随着铝价保持坚挺(美银预测2026年中国铝价2.25万元/吨)，中国宏桥盈利能力将 持续扩大;同时，西芒杜铁矿项目于2025年11月投产，已发运首批货物，预计将从2026年开始贡献盈利; 在完成115亿港元配股以及持续的股份回购后，该公司的资产负债表得到优化。 长期而言，中国宏桥独特的垂直一体化模式使其稳居全球成本曲线最低区间，具备穿越周期的强劲盈利 能力和结构性的高派息率(>60%)，预计2026年股息率约为7%。美银认为，该公司作为优质高股息核心 资产，现金流持续生成能力强，盈利韧性高，估值具备重估潜力。 基于最新的 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - HSBC reports that global aluminum prices are at multi-year highs and are expected to surpass historical records this year due to ongoing supply constraints [1] - The aluminum market is experiencing tight supply conditions, exacerbated by high capacity utilization and low inventory levels [1][2] - Structural supply limitations persist, particularly in China, where effective production capacity is capped at approximately 45 million tons, while overseas supply growth remains limited [2] Group 2: Price Trends - Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum prices have surpassed 23,000 RMB/ton, while London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices have risen above 3,000 USD/ton, reaching multi-year highs [2] - Despite these increases, prices have not yet returned to the historical peaks seen in 2021/22, indicating potential for further upward movement if supply conditions tighten [2] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand remains resilient, driven by strong consumption related to automotive lightweighting and electric vehicle (EV) needs, as well as stable investments in power grid infrastructure [3] - Solar energy demand is normalizing from recent peaks but continues to contribute significantly to aluminum demand [3] - The construction sector shows signs of stabilization after years of weakness, alleviating long-standing negative factors affecting aluminum market growth [3] Group 4: Company Outlook - HSBC has raised the target price for China Hongqiao to 41.00 HKD, up from 37.40 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on strong aluminum prices and effective cost management [3] - The company is expected to achieve further profit growth by Q4 2025, with a projected compound annual growth rate of approximately 21% in earnings from 2024 to 2027 [3]

汇丰表示，尽管行业轮动，需求仍保持韧性：在需求方面，受汽车轻量化和电池外围强劲需求推动，与 电动汽车相关的消费依然强劲。电网层面的投资则继续提供一个稳定的、为期多年期的需求来源。太阳 能需求正从近期峰值全面正常化，仍是铝需求的重要贡献者。建筑层面的需求在经历多年疲软后似乎正 在企稳，减轻了长期以来铝市场增长路径的不利因素。总体而言，该机构预计中国铝需求将保持强大韧 性，支撑更紧张的市场平衡态势。 汇丰分析师团队强调称，这种趋紧的平衡已转化为铝价格走势。上海期货交易所的铝价已突破23，000 元人民币/吨的重要关口，伦敦金属交易所LME铝价持续上行至突破3，000美元/吨，创下多年来的历史 最高点位，但尚未重返2021/22年所见的历史最高峰值(分别为大约24，000元人民币/吨以及>3，800美 元/吨)，这表明如果状况持续或进一步趋紧，仍然存在可观的上行潜力。 不过汇丰的分析师们表示，结构性供应限制依然存在：比如，在中国市场，产能上限继续限制增量级别 产出，尽管价格强劲，但汇丰认为产量大幅增长的空间很小。海外供应增长则相对温和，且日益面临中 断风险。South32旗下Mozal铝厂(约0.25百万吨)确认将 ...

Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley projects that the MSCI China Materials Index will outperform the MSCI China Index by 65 percentage points in 2025, driven by supply dynamics [1] - The firm expects continued outperformance in 2026 due to supply disruptions and further M&A activities [1] - The demand growth for basic metals in China is anticipated to slow and stabilize, with copper and aluminum demand growth rates expected to be 2.5% and 1.5% respectively [2] Company Ratings and Forecasts - China Hongqiao's rating is maintained at "Overweight," with the target price raised from HKD 34 to HKD 40, citing its integrated model as a cost advantage [1][3] - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a top pick for 2026 due to its exposure to copper and gold [3] - Jiangxi Copper's rating is upgraded to "Neutral," despite a recent stock price increase of over 40% [3] - Baosteel's rating is downgraded to "Neutral," while Angang Steel's rating is downgraded to "Underweight" due to expected declines in steel profit margins [3] Supply Chain Dynamics - Supply disruptions are ongoing, with South32 scheduled maintenance at the Mozal aluminum smelter in March 2026 and a strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine expected to reduce copper supply by 77,000 tons [1][2] - Zijin Mining has issued a positive profit forecast, expecting a net profit of RMB 51-52 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59-62% [1] M&A Activities - Industry consolidation is advancing, with notable acquisitions such as Luoyang Molybdenum's purchase of Brazilian gold assets and Jiangxi Copper's acquisition of SolGold [1]

Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley projects that the MSCI China Materials Index will outperform the MSCI China Index by 65 percentage points in 2025, driven by supply dynamics [1] - The index is expected to continue its outperformance in 2026 due to supply disruptions and increased merger activities [1] - The preference order for the Chinese basic materials industry in 2026 is copper/gold, aluminum, lithium, coal, and steel [3] Company Performance - China Hongqiao's rating is maintained at "Overweight," with the target price raised from HKD 34 to HKD 40, citing its integrated model as a cost advantage [1][4] - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a top pick for 2026 due to its exposure to copper and gold [4] - Jiangxi Copper's rating is upgraded to "Neutral," despite a recent stock price increase of over 40% [4] - Baosteel's rating is downgraded to "Neutral," while Angang Steel's rating is downgraded to "Underweight" due to expected declines in steel profit margins [4] Supply Chain Dynamics - Ongoing supply disruptions include maintenance at South32's Mozal aluminum smelter and a strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine, which is expected to reduce copper supply by 77,000 tons [2] - The lithium market is anticipated to tighten due to strong energy storage demand, with more supply expected to come online in the second half of the year [3]

Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the MSCI China Materials Index will outperform the MSCI China Index by 65 percentage points in 2025, driven by supply dynamics [1] - The index is expected to continue its outperformance in 2026 due to supply disruptions and increased merger activities [1] - The preference order for the Chinese basic materials industry in 2026 is copper/gold, aluminum, lithium, coal, and steel [3] Company Performance - China Hongqiao's rating is maintained at "Overweight," with the target price raised from HKD 34 to HKD 40, citing its integrated model as a cost advantage [1][4] - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a top pick for 2026 due to its exposure to copper/gold [4] - Jiangxi Copper's rating is upgraded to "Neutral," despite a recent stock price increase of over 40% [4] - Baosteel's rating is downgraded to "Neutral," while Angang Steel's rating is downgraded to "Underweight" due to expected declines in steel profit margins [5] Supply Chain Dynamics - Ongoing supply disruptions include maintenance at South32's Mozal aluminum smelter and a strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine, which is expected to reduce copper supply by 77,000 tons [2] - The demand growth for basic metals in China is projected to stabilize, with copper and aluminum demand growth rates expected at 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively [3]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因依賴該等內容 而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 China Hongqiao Group Limited 中國宏橋集團有限公司 （根據開曼群島法例註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1378） 自願公告 本公告乃中國宏橋集團有限公司（「本公司」）自願作出。茲提述本公司日期為二零二四年十二月 二十三日、二零二五年一月六日、二零二五年五月二十二日、二零二五年六月九日、二零二五年 十二月十日及二零二六年一月四日的公告，內容有關宏創控股擬向宏拓實業現有股東（包括魏橋鋁 電）發行新股以購買其持有的目標股份及與本次交易相關的交易文件。除非文義另有所指，否則本公 司日期為二零二五年五月二十二日的公告所界定詞彙與本公告所用者具有相同涵義。 董事會欣然宣佈，宏創控股將發行的11,894,744,449股新股將於二零二六年一月十三日在深圳證券交 易所上市，屆時本次交易將完成。 本公司股東及潛在投資者在買賣本公司證券時務請審慎行事。 承董事會命 中國宏橋集團有限公司 主席 張 ...