Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China Hongqiao (01378) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising over 4% amid improving demand for electrolytic aluminum and strong supply constraints [1] - According to Guangfa Securities, the upward elasticity of aluminum prices should not be overlooked, especially with the anticipated demand recovery [1] - As of March 2025, China Hongqiao is expected to have an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 6.459 million tons, maintaining stable production and sales while reducing costs [1] Group 2 - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.74 billion yuan in 2026, assuming an aluminum price of 23,000 yuan per ton [1] - The annual cash dividend payout ratios for the company from 2022 to 2024 are forecasted to be 49%, 48%, and 64% respectively, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [1] - If the high dividend payout ratio continues, the expected dividend yield based on the market capitalization as of February 9 could reach 6.7% [1]

该行表示，数据显示，2022-2024年公司年度现金分红比例分别为49%、48%、64%。按照2.3万元含税 铝价假设，2026年公司归母净利润可达327.4亿元，假设分红延续64%，按2月9日市值计算，股息率达 6.7%。期待高分红比例延续。 智通财经APP获悉，中国宏桥(01378)早盘涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.01%，报37.86港元，成交额2.36亿港 元。 广发证券发布研报称，电解铝需求改善的背景下，供给的强约束将更加突出，铝价上行弹性不可忽视。 截至2025年3月末，中国宏桥具有电解铝产能645.9万吨，产销持稳，成本下降，我们预计2026年铝价上 涨将带来公司核心的利润弹性。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国宏桥(01378)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.32%，报36.74港元，成交额2.08亿港元。 国信证券指出，公司是全球铝产业头部企业，拥有1900万吨氧化铝产能和646万吨电解铝产能，是全球 第二大铝生产商。公司坚持高比例分红，于2025年5月公告未来三年（2025-2027年）股东回报规划：公 司发展阶段属成熟期且无重大资金支出安排的，进行利润分配时，现金分红在本次利润分配中所占比例 最低应达到80%。公司分红比例在铝行业是最高水平。 消息面上，招银国际认为，鉴于全球铝供应短缺格局将在2026至2027年持续，叠加铝价上行与铝土矿价 格下行的双重利好，上调中国宏桥盈利预测，并将其目标价从39港元升至45港元，维持"买入"评级。招 银国际指出，当前中国原铝产能利用率已接近政策上限的99%，同时海外新增产能释放有限，这将支撑 全球铝市维持短缺状态，预计2026年铝均价同比上涨15%。此外，从盈利表现来看，中国宏桥2025年核 心净利润预计达262.62亿元，同比增长7%；2026年净利润增速将加快至34%，主要驱动力来自铝价上 涨。 ...

国信证券指出，公司是全球铝产业头部企业，拥有1900万吨氧化铝产能和646万吨电解铝产能，是全球 第二大铝生产商。公司坚持高比例分红，于2025年5月公告未来三年(2025-2027年)股东回报规划：公司 发展阶段属成熟期且无重大资金支出安排的，进行利润分配时，现金分红在本次利润分配中所占比例最 低应达到80%。公司分红比例在铝行业是最高水平。 中国宏桥(01378)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.32%，报36.74港元，成交额2.08亿港元。 消息面上，招银国际认为，鉴于全球铝供应短缺格局将在2026至2027年持续，叠加铝价上行与铝土矿价 格下行的双重利好，上调中国宏桥盈利预测，并将其目标价从39港元升至45港元，维持"买入"评级。招 银国际指出，当前中国原铝产能利用率已接近政策上限的99%，同时海外新增产能释放有限，这将支撑 全球铝市维持短缺状态，预计2026年铝均价同比上涨15%。此外，从盈利表现来看，中国宏桥2025年核 心净利润预计达262.62亿元，同比增长7%；2026年净利润增速将加快至34%，主要驱动力来自铝价上 涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global aluminum supply shortage is expected to persist until 2026-2027, leading to an upward adjustment in the profit forecast for China Hongqiao (01378) and an increase in the target price from HKD 39 to HKD 45, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][2] Group 1: Industry Insights - The current utilization rate of China's primary aluminum production capacity is nearing the policy limit of 99%, while new overseas production capacity is limited, supporting a sustained global aluminum market shortage [1] - The average aluminum price is projected to increase by 15% year-on-year in 2026, with price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 being raised by 12% and 7%, respectively [1] - Despite an anticipated acceleration in overseas production capacity in 2027, the aluminum shortage is expected to continue, keeping prices at high levels [1] Group 2: Company Performance - China Hongqiao's core net profit for 2025 is expected to reach CNY 26.262 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a projected profit growth rate of 34% in 2026 driven primarily by rising aluminum prices [1] - The sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1% increase in aluminum prices will enhance the company's net profit by 2.3% in 2026, while a 1% decrease in coal prices will boost net profit by 0.3% [1] Group 3: Valuation - Based on a forward P/E ratio of 11 times for 2026, the target price for China Hongqiao has been raised to HKD 45, with future stock price increases expected to rely more on profit growth rather than valuation expansion [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 35.30 and a target value of HKD 44.25 [6]. Core Views - The increase in aluminum prices is expected to enhance the company's profit elasticity. With improved demand for electrolytic aluminum and constrained supply, the upward potential for aluminum prices should not be overlooked. The average price of Shanghai aluminum futures for 2025 is projected to be RMB 20,750 per ton, a 4% year-on-year increase [8]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with expected cash dividend ratios of 49%, 48%, and 64% for the years 2022-2024. Assuming a price of RMB 23,000 for aluminum in 2026, the company's net profit could reach RMB 32.74 billion, leading to a dividend yield of 6.7% [8]. - The forecasted EPS for the company for 2025-2027 is expected to be RMB 2.20, RMB 3.28, and RMB 3.29 per share, respectively. Based on comparable company valuations, a PE ratio of 12 times for 2026 is applied, resulting in a reasonable value of HKD 44.25 per share [8]. Financial Forecasts - The company's main revenue is projected to be RMB 133.62 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 156.17 billion in 2024, followed by a slight decline to RMB 151.18 billion in 2025, and then recovering to RMB 159.87 billion in 2026 and 2027 [4][31]. - The EBITDA is expected to rise from RMB 26.91 billion in 2023 to RMB 45.64 billion in 2024, before decreasing to RMB 40.85 billion in 2025, and then increasing to RMB 54.92 billion in 2026 and remaining stable in 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow significantly from RMB 11.46 billion in 2023 to RMB 22.37 billion in 2024, followed by a slight decrease to RMB 21.88 billion in 2025, and then a substantial increase to RMB 32.74 billion in 2026 and RMB 32.84 billion in 2027 [4][31]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum is expected to grow due to the booming global renewable energy sector and the Belt and Road Initiative, which will support long-term demand growth. The automotive sector is increasingly adopting aluminum for lightweighting, while the photovoltaic sector will continue to drive aluminum demand [9][10]. - On the supply side, the growth of electrolytic aluminum production is limited due to energy constraints and existing capacity ceilings in China. The expected growth rate for electrolytic aluminum supply from 2025 to 2027 is around 1% [10][11]. - Overall, the combination of sustained demand growth and limited supply increases the potential for upward price elasticity in aluminum, which is expected to open up profit growth opportunities for electrolytic aluminum companies [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao (01378.HK) is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 18.675 billion, 25.299 billion, and 27.176 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [1] - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16 times for the year 2026, reflecting a premium valuation due to the company's leading position in the electrolytic aluminum industry [1] - The target price for China Hongqiao is set at 45.58 HKD, based on an exchange rate of 0.89 HKD to RMB [1] Group 2 - The market capitalization of China Hongqiao is 344.265 billion HKD, making it the top company in the industrial metals sector [1] - Over the past 90 days, three investment banks have issued buy ratings for the stock, with an average target price of 40.02 HKD [1] - The latest report from Global Fortune Management also gives a buy rating for China Hongqiao, with a target price of 45.58 HKD [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao (01378) is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 186.75 billion, 252.99 billion, and 271.76 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, respectively, with a target price of 45.58 HKD based on a 16x PE for 2026 [1] - The estimated net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 170.0 billion and 200.0 billion yuan, with adjustments made to the 2024 net profit figure to 172.28 billion yuan due to a significant asset restructuring involving the acquisition of Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd. [2] - The production cost of electrolytic aluminum has decreased, leading to a significant expansion in enterprise profits, with the average production cost at 15,747.31 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 149.18 yuan/ton, and an industry average profit of 8,295.19 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2,266.98 yuan/ton [3] Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum market is entering a new cycle, with historical price highs driven by a weakening dollar and geopolitical factors, leading to fluctuations in aluminum prices [4] - The overall electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China is expected to grow from 43.76 million tons to 45.15 million tons from 2021 to 2025, with a tightening of new capacity control due to the 45 million ton capacity "ceiling" and "dual carbon" goals [5]

电解铝生产成本下降，企业利润扩大明显 2026年1月电解铝市价超预期上涨，触及历史新高，而氧化铝现货价格小幅下跌，处于偏低位水平，电 解铝厂生产成本较上月下降，而铝厂盈利空间扩大明显。 截至1月30日，我国电解铝企业算数平均生产成本15747.31元/吨附近，较上月降149.18元/吨，环比降幅 0.94%，同比降幅19.26%；行业平均盈利8295.19元/吨，较上月增加2266.98元/吨，环比增幅37.61%，同 比增幅1354.91%。加权平均生产成本14804.09元/吨，较上月减少177.55元/吨，降幅1.19%。本期电解铝 产能成本在16000元/吨以下的产能规模为3572.2万吨，占比81.21%；16000-17000元/吨产能规模为815.5 万吨，占比18.54%；17000-18000元/吨产能规模为11.2万吨，占比0.25%；暂无18000-19000元/吨产能规 模、产能成本大于19000元/吨产能规模。 智通财经APP获悉，环球富盛发布研报称，预测中国宏桥(01378)2025-2027年归母净利润分别为 186.75、252.99、271.76亿元。结合可比公司估值考虑到公 ...

Core Viewpoint - CMB International maintains a positive outlook on China Hongqiao, expecting a continued supply shortage in the global aluminum market from 2026 to 2027, leading to upward revisions in aluminum price forecasts by 12% and 7% respectively for those years [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - The company has raised its earnings forecasts for China Hongqiao by 27% and 12% for the current and next year respectively [1] - The target price for China Hongqiao has been increased from HKD 39 to HKD 45, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Profit Projections - The company anticipates that China Hongqiao's core net profit will reach CNY 26.2 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7% [1] - Net profit growth is expected to accelerate to 34% in 2026, driven by higher aluminum prices [1] Group 3: Profit Sensitivity - The company estimates that a 1% increase in aluminum prices will boost earnings by approximately 2.3% in 2026 [1] - A 1% decrease in coal prices is projected to enhance earnings by about 0.3% [1]