Group 1 - The company plans to issue up to 400 million shares at a price of HKD 29.2 per share, raising a maximum of HKD 11.68 billion, which represents a discount of approximately 9.6% from the previous trading day's closing price [1] - The funds raised will be used to optimize the capital structure and support the development of domestic and overseas projects, including a significant aluminum production capacity in China and a joint venture in Guinea [1] - The company is expected to maintain a stable performance in 2026-2027, supported by a strong outlook for aluminum prices and an improved capital structure, which may facilitate continued high dividend policies [1] Group 2 - The company is actively pursuing a "large-scale buyback + high dividend" strategy, having repurchased 1.87 million shares for HKD 2.6 billion in the first half of the year and planning a new round of buybacks totaling at least HKD 3 billion [2] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio above 45% since 2020, with ratios of 46.8%, 47.0%, and 63.4% over the past three years, reflecting confidence in future growth and commitment to shareholder returns [2] Group 3 - The profit margins in the electrolytic aluminum sector are expected to continue expanding, potentially offsetting downward pressure from alumina prices, as domestic production capacity is strictly limited while demand remains strong [3] - The company’s main businesses include alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with alumina prices currently at a low point, limiting the potential for significant further declines [3] - The company maintains optimistic profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of CNY 25.625 billion, CNY 25.426 billion, and CNY 25.760 billion, respectively, and a target price of HKD 35.22 based on a 12X PE ratio [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a recent pullback in China Hongqiao's stock, JPMorgan sees this as a buying opportunity for investors and maintains a constructive outlook on the aluminum industry for 2026 [1] - JPMorgan has upgraded its target price for China Hongqiao from HKD 26.5 to HKD 34, maintaining an "overweight" rating [1] - The positive outlook for the aluminum industry in 2026 is supported by resilient global demand, rising copper prices, and healthy smelting profit margins [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan's base case predicts a moderate surplus in 2026 due to new supply from Indonesia, but potential supply disruption risks and slower overseas restart rates may tighten the market beyond their base case [1] - The firm remains optimistic about aluminum stocks, forecasting earnings growth of 10-16% for the fiscal year 2026, and believes that China Hongqiao's valuation is currently undervalued [1] - China Hongqiao, as a significant producer in the Chinese aluminum industry, is expected to benefit from these trends while maintaining healthy margin profits due to its low production cost advantage [1] Group 3 - Another factor supporting JPMorgan's positive view on China Hongqiao is its demonstrated commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend yield exceeding 6% providing solid support for the stock price [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a recent pullback in China Hongqiao's stock, JPMorgan sees this as a buying opportunity for investors, maintaining a constructive outlook on the aluminum industry through 2026 [1] - JPMorgan has upgraded the target price for China Hongqiao from HKD 26.5 to HKD 34, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [1] - The positive outlook for the aluminum industry is supported by resilient global demand, rising copper prices, and healthy smelting profit margins [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan's basic forecast indicates that new supply from Indonesia will lead to a moderate surplus by 2026, but potential supply disruption risks and slower overseas restarts may tighten the market beyond their basic predictions [1] - The firm expects significant volatility in aluminum stocks in the near term, with projected earnings growth for the fiscal year 2026 estimated at 10-16% [1] - China Hongqiao is viewed as undervalued, benefiting from healthy marginal profits and a low production cost advantage, making it more competitive among global peers [1] Group 3 - Another factor supporting JPMorgan's optimistic view on China Hongqiao is the company's demonstrated commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend yield exceeding 6% providing solid support for the stock price [1]

中国宏桥以先旧后新方式配售4亿股新股，每股作价29.2港元，预计净集资约114.9亿港元。摩根士丹利 认为部分募集资金将用于股份回购以提升股东回报和支持股价，并对铝价前景持乐观态度，主要因供应 增长有限和需求尤其是储能领域需求强劲。稳健的基本面预计将推动宏桥2026年盈利表现，大摩维 持"增持"评级，目标价为30.6港元。 ...

Group 1 - China Hongqiao announced a placement of 400 million shares at a price of HKD 29.2 per share, representing approximately 4.03% of the enlarged share capital, with expected net fundraising of about HKD 11.49 billion [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that part of the raised funds will be used for share buybacks in the market to enhance shareholder returns and support the stock price [1] - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about aluminum price prospects due to limited supply growth, both domestically (restricted by government production caps) and internationally (mainly constrained by power supply), alongside resilient demand, particularly from the energy storage sector [1] Group 2 - The robust industrial fundamentals are expected to support further increases in aluminum prices, which will boost Hongqiao's earnings performance in 2026 [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Hongqiao with a target price of HKD 30.6 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 35.22 [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to continue its high profitability and high dividend policy, supported by a strong capital structure and stable performance in the aluminum sector [1][4] - The planned placement of up to 400 million shares at HKD 29.2 per share aims to raise a maximum of HKD 11.68 billion, which will be used to optimize the capital structure and support domestic and overseas project development [2][4] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns through significant share buybacks and consistent high dividend payouts, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 45% since 2020 [3][4] Summary by Sections Capital Structure and Project Development - The placement will primarily fund domestic and overseas projects and further optimize the company's debt structure, with existing capacities of 6.46 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 19 million tons of alumina domestically, and 2 million tons of alumina capacity in Indonesia [2][4] Shareholder Returns - The company has executed a significant share buyback strategy, spending HKD 2.6 billion to repurchase 18.7 million shares in the first half of the year, with plans for an additional buyback of at least HKD 3 billion [3][4] Profitability Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to maintain profitability despite downward pressure from alumina prices, with a tightening supply-demand balance anticipated by 2026 [4][5] - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 25.63 billion, RMB 25.43 billion, and RMB 25.76 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE ratio of 12X for 2025 [5][11]

Core Insights - On November 18, China Hongqiao made its first appearance on the Hong Kong Stock Connect active trading list in a month, with a trading volume of 2.42 billion HKD and a net buy of 0.83 billion HKD, despite a closing drop of 5.88% [2]. Trading Activity Summary - The total trading volume of active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 38.66 billion HKD, accounting for 39.31% of the day's total trading amount, with a net buying amount of 7.18 billion HKD [2]. - Alibaba-W led the trading volume with 9.28 billion HKD, followed by Tencent Holdings and Xiaomi Group-W with trading amounts of 5.85 billion HKD and 4.59 billion HKD, respectively [2]. - The most frequently listed stocks in the past month include Alibaba-W and Huahong Semiconductor, each appearing 21 times, indicating strong interest from Hong Kong Stock Connect funds [2]. Individual Stock Performance - China Hongqiao's trading details on November 18 included a trading volume of 2.42 billion HKD and a net buy of 0.83 billion HKD, with a closing price of 21.80 HKD and a daily decline of 5.88% [2]. - Other notable stocks included: - Tencent Holdings: Trading volume of 5.85 billion HKD, net sell of 0.19 billion HKD, closing price of 623.50 HKD, and a daily drop of 2.04% [2]. - Xiaomi Group-W: Trading volume of 4.59 billion HKD, net buy of 0.85 billion HKD, closing price of 40.78 HKD, and a daily decline of 2.81% [2]. - Huahong Semiconductor: Trading volume of 3.61 billion HKD, net buy of 0.37 billion HKD, closing price of 80.25 HKD, and a daily increase of 3.48% [2].

中国宏桥（01378.HK），今年港股有色股中的超级牛股之一。年初以来，中国宏桥最大涨幅超过两倍，市值最高突破3000亿港元。 不过，最近这只牛股突然崩了。 上周四，中国宏桥创出35.1港元的历史纪录后，上周五跌近4%，昨天下跌3.6%，今日盘中最多跌近8%，最终收盘下跌5.88%，全天成交170亿港元，成交额 明显放大。从高点跌下来，中国宏桥累计最大跌幅近15%。究竟发生了什么？ 下跌的直接原因，是中国宏桥昨晚发布公告，准备配售4亿股股份，预计募资高达114.9亿港元。募集资金拟用于发展及提升国内及海外项目、偿还现有债 务、优化资本结构及补充营运资金。 更重要的是，中国宏桥计划配售股份的配售价仅为29.2港元，这比昨天的收盘价32.3港元折价了约9.6%。巨额融资，再加上配售价的较大折让，导致了中国 宏桥近期的持续回落。 实际上，类似的事情，在A股也时有发生，内地投资者不会感到太陌生。 不过需要注意的是，虽然融资实现了快速高效，但毕竟配股价还是较市价有明显折扣，而股本的扩张，对原有老股东来说，持股比例会被一定程度稀释。因 此，短期来看，此次配股对于股价而言，确实会形成利空。今天，中国宏桥成交额显著放大，也说 ...

智通财经APP讯，中国宏桥(01378)发布公告，公司控股股东中国宏桥控股有限公司(宏桥控股)已于2025 年11月18日从公开市场以每股平均价约30.5353港元购买合共750万股公司股份，相当于截至本公告日期 公司已发行股份总数约0.08%。于增持股份前，宏桥控股持有60.90亿股股份，相当于公司已发行股份总 数约63.94%。于增持股份后，宏桥控股持有60.975亿股股份，相当于公司已发行股份总数约64.02%。根 据公司获授的相关公众持股量豁免，公司须满足的公众持股量为15.04%。根据公司可以得悉的公开资 料及就董事所知，公司在增持股份后依然能够满足公众持股量的要求。 ...

格隆汇11月18日丨中国宏桥(01378.HK)公布，公司董事会获通知，公司控股股东宏桥控股已于2025年11 月18日从公开市场以每股平均价约30.5353港元购买合共750万股公司股份，相当于截至公告日期本公司 已发行股份总数约0.08%。 于增持股份前，宏桥控股持有60.90亿股股份，相当于公司已发行股份总数约63.94%。于增持股份后， 宏桥控股持有60.98亿股股份，相当于公司已发行股份总数约64.02%。 ...