Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for China Hongqiao, with a revised target price of HK$45, up from HK$39, reflecting a 27.5% upside potential from the current price of HK$35.30 [1][3]. Core Insights - The global aluminium deficit is expected to persist through 2026-27, driven by high utilization rates in China and limited new capacity overseas. This is anticipated to lead to a 15% year-on-year increase in aluminium prices in 2026 [1][7]. - Earnings forecasts have been revised upwards, with a projected core net profit of RMB26.2 billion for 2025, representing a 7% year-on-year growth, and an acceleration to 34% growth in 2026, primarily due to higher aluminium prices [1][7]. - The report indicates that a 1% increase in aluminium prices could boost 2026 earnings by 2.3%, while a 1% decrease in coal prices would increase earnings by 0.3% [1][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Hongqiao are as follows: RMB156,596 million for 2025, RMB167,859 million for 2026, and RMB162,737 million for 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 0.3%, 7.2%, and -3.1% [2][26]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB26,262.3 million for 2025, RMB36,049.2 million for 2026, and RMB32,879.0 million for 2027, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of RMB2.71, RMB3.63, and RMB3.31 [2][26]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 12.7x for 2025, 8.7x for 2026, and 9.5x for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [2][26]. Market and Share Performance - The market capitalization of China Hongqiao is approximately HK$350.3 billion, with an average turnover of HK$1,565.4 million over the past three months [4]. - The share price has shown significant performance, with a 73.5% increase over the past six months [6].

上周，贵金属经历了一轮惊心动魄的"高台跳水"。1月30日，白银日内暴跌，创下1980年以来最大单日跌幅；黄金日内则跌超10%，同样刷新了过去几十年 的单日跌幅纪录。表面上看，金、银巨幅波动与美国总统特朗普在社交平台上的表态有关，他打算提名鹰派色彩浓厚的前美联储理事会成员凯文.沃什担任 下一任美联储主席。 消息一出，美元应声反弹，美债利率抬升，全球流动性收紧预期升温。而在超买环境下本就刚刚经历了加速上涨的贵金属，则是在短时间内巨幅回撤。笔者 认为，以上是市场典型的"膝跳反应"：交易员们正迅速定价一个更偏紧缩的货币政策未来。 然而，尽管在一夜之间资产价格的运行趋势似乎就发生了巨大偏移，但对于敏锐的投资者而言，市场情绪宣泄过后，此时可能恰恰是甄别优质资产、重新布 局有着长期趋势的品种的绝佳窗口。就拿同为金属，但又具备独特韧性与强大成长逻辑的铝来说，刚性供给约束与持续增长的需求形成的剪刀差有望进一步 扩大，而这也意味着二级市场以中国宏桥(01378)为代表的相关标的将持续受到资金青睐。更不消说，以交易视角看，本轮贵金属尤其是白银品种的调整， 抑或会促使里面的投机性资金转向电解铝等长期看成长性与确定性均更强的方向。 市 ...

消息一出，美元应声反弹，美债利率抬升，全球流动性收紧预期升温。而在超买环境下本就刚刚经历了加速上涨的贵金属，则是在短时间内巨幅回撤。笔者 认为，以上是市场典型的"膝跳反应"：交易员们正迅速定价一个更偏紧缩的货币政策未来。 然而，尽管在一夜之间资产价格的运行趋势似乎就发生了巨大偏移，但对于敏锐的投资者而言，市场情绪宣泄过后，此时可能恰恰是甄别优质资产、重新布 局有着长期趋势的品种的绝佳窗口。就拿同为金属，但又具备独特韧性与强大成长逻辑的铝来说，刚性供给约束与持续增长的需求形成的剪刀差有望进一步 扩大，而这也意味着二级市场以中国宏桥（01378）为代表的相关标的将持续受到资金青睐。更不消说，以交易视角看，本轮贵金属尤其是白银品种的调 整，抑或会促使里面的投机性资金转向电解铝等长期看成长性与确定性均更强的方向。 市场"膝跳反应"，电解铝料强者恒强 特朗普提名凯文·沃什执掌美联储引发一系列连锁反应，尽管一时间全球资本市场阴云密布，但智通财经认为愈是在这种时刻，理性的投资者更需要忽略宏 观"噪音"，而更加专注于中观视角下产业自身的基本面与投资逻辑。 1月最后一周，氧化铝价格下跌0.57%至2635元/吨；电解铝方面，沪 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國宏橋集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01378 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 20,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 | USD | | 200,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 20,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 | USD | | 200,000,000 | 本月底法定/ ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因依賴該等內容 而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 本公司的間接附屬公司山東宏橋鋁業控股股份有限公司（「宏橋控股」，前稱山東宏創鋁業控股股份有 限公司，股票代碼：002379.SZ）已於深圳證券交易所刊發其2025年度業績預告（「業績預告」）。 本公司謹此提供以下業績預告的內容節錄： China Hongqiao Group Limited 中國宏橋集團有限公司 （根據開曼群島法例註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1378） 自願公告 本公告乃中國宏橋集團有限公司（「本公司」）自願作出。 就進一步詳情，請參閱宏橋控股於深圳證券交易所網站內披露的業績預告（https://www.szse.cn/ disclosure/listed/bulletinDetail/index.html?b0e8fe6f-b627-495e-b86d-ac0e79eaa655）。 投資者應注意不可過份依賴有關資料，於買賣本公司股份時務請審慎行事。 承董事會命 | 項目 | 本報告 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) has seen its stock price rise over 4%, reaching a historical high of 39.16 HKD, supported by tightening supply and bullish forecasts for aluminum prices [1][4]. Aluminum Price Forecast - Major banks have recently issued reports predicting higher aluminum prices. Goldman Sachs has raised its LME aluminum price forecast for the first half of 2026 from 2,575 USD per ton to 3,150 USD per ton [1][4]. - Citigroup's latest annual commodity outlook report indicates that under its "bull market scenario," the price center for aluminum could approach 4,000 USD per ton [1][4]. Company Analysis - Jefferies has identified China Hongqiao as a key beneficiary of the rising aluminum prices, reiterating its "buy" rating and increasing the target price from 34.1 HKD to 43.8 HKD [1][4]. - The company is recognized as one of the leading aluminum producers globally, with a strong cost competitiveness that places it in the top tier of China's aluminum production cost curve. This competitive advantage is built on two main dimensions: complete self-sufficiency in key raw materials and efficient production achieved through technological optimization that results in lower unit energy consumption [1][4].

Group 1 - China Hongqiao (01378) shares rose over 4%, reaching a historical high of 39.16 HKD, with a trading volume of 440 million HKD [1] - Factors such as tightening supply are supporting the rise in aluminum prices, with multiple major banks forecasting higher aluminum prices [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its LME aluminum price forecast for the first half of 2026 from 2,575 USD per ton to 3,150 USD per ton [1] Group 2 - Citigroup's latest annual commodity outlook report indicates that under its "bull market scenario," the price center for aluminum could approach 4,000 USD per ton [1] - Jefferies reported that China Hongqiao will be a major beneficiary of the rising aluminum prices, reiterating its "buy" rating and raising the target price from 34.1 HKD to 43.8 HKD [1] - The company is recognized as one of the leading aluminum producers globally, with strong cost competitiveness, ranking in the top tier of China's aluminum production cost curve [1] Group 3 - The company's competitive advantage is built on two dimensions: complete self-sufficiency in key raw materials and efficient production achieved through technological optimization, resulting in lower unit energy consumption [1]

Group 1 - China Hongqiao (01378) shares rose over 4%, reaching a historical high of 39.16 HKD, with a trading volume of 440 million HKD [1] - Tightening supply and other factors are supporting the rise in aluminum prices, with major banks predicting higher prices [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its LME aluminum price forecast for the first half of 2026 from 2,575 USD per ton to 3,150 USD per ton [1] Group 2 - Citigroup's annual commodity outlook report indicates that under its "bull market scenario," aluminum prices could approach 4,000 USD per ton [1] - Jefferies reported that China Hongqiao will be a major beneficiary of rising aluminum prices, reaffirming its "buy" rating and raising the target price from 34.1 HKD to 43.8 HKD [1] - The company is recognized as one of the leading aluminum producers globally, with strong cost competitiveness, ranking in the top tier of China's aluminum production cost curve [1]

杰富瑞发布报告，表示中国宏桥(01378)将成为将成为铝价回升的主要受益者，该行重申其"买入"评 级，并将目标价从34.1港元上调至43.8港元。 杰富瑞表示，铜和铝板块的股价尚未充分反映当前大宗商品价格的强势，而锂板块的估值看起来则更为 合理。考虑到供应受限以及由能源转型、AI题材等驱动的需求，加之近期的宏观利好和地缘政治安全 因素，该行对长期前景保持积极态度，并看好铜和铝。 该行指出，中国宏桥作为全球领先的铝生产商之一，核心优势在于其极强的成本竞争力，位居中国铝生 产成本曲线的第一梯队。这种"护城河"主要由两个维度构建：1)关键原材料的完全自给：公司已经实现 了铝土矿和氧化铝的完全自给自足，极大地抵御了上游原材料价格上涨的风险，保证了利润空间的稳定 性;2)高效生产，该公司通过技术优化实现了更低的单位能耗。 此外，该公司通过股息(派息率达60%以上)、回购等方式提供了可观的股东回报。 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong aluminum stocks collectively strengthened, with Rusal rising nearly 13% [1] - Rongyang Industrial increased by over 10% [1] - Xingfa Aluminum rose by over 5% [1] Group 2 - Innovation Industry and Nanshan Aluminum International both increased by over 2% [1] - China Aluminum also saw an increase of over 2% [1] - China Hongqiao rose nearly 2% and reached a historical high [1]