港股公司报告 | 公司点评 周大福（01929） 证券研究报告 2024年06月 16日 投资评级 金价上涨致同店承压，全年谨慎乐观 行业 非必需性消费/专业零 售 公司发布FY24年报 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 8.62港元 FY24 全年营收 1087 亿港币，同增 15%，剔除汇率因素后同增 19%；归母 目标价格 港元 净利65亿港币，同增21%。 分地区看，FY24 内地营收897 亿港币，同增9.9%（占总83%），港澳及其 基本数据 他营收190 亿港币，同增 46%（占总17%）；分产品看，FY24 黄金类营收 港股总股本(百万股) 9,987.74 同增22.5%（占总82%）；镶嵌类营收同减13.3%（占总13.4%）。 港股总市值(百万港元) 86,094.29 分渠道看（内地），FY24批发营收同增15.1%（占总47%）；零售同增3.6% 每股净资产(港元) 2.57 （占总35.5%），其中电商量价齐升，销售值同增18.8%，均价2080港币， 资产负债率(%) 69.89 同增210港币，对总零售销售值贡献4.8%，对总零售销售量贡献11.6%。 一 年内最高/最低 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][11] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook reported a robust growth in FY2024 with revenue increasing by 14.8% year-on-year to HKD 108.71 billion and net profit rising by 20.7% to HKD 6.50 billion, indicating a recovery in operational performance [5][6] - The company is focusing on enhancing brand strength and optimizing operational quality as part of its mid-term transformation strategy, aiming for a century milestone in 2029 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue reached HKD 108.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, while net profit was HKD 6.50 billion, up 20.7% [5][8] - The forecast for net profit for FY2025-2027 is HKD 7.28 billion (-16.78%), HKD 8.18 billion (-18.72%), and HKD 9.22 billion, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.73 (-0.17), HKD 0.82 (-0.19), and HKD 0.92 [5][8] Market Performance - Revenue from mainland China was HKD 89.70 billion, a 9.9% increase, accounting for 82.5% of total revenue, while revenue from markets outside mainland China was HKD 19.02 billion, a significant increase of 45.6% [6] - Retail and wholesale revenues in mainland China grew by 3.6% and 15.1% respectively, with the latter representing 57.0% of mainland revenue [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company added 143 new stores in mainland China, bringing the total to 7,403, while adopting a more cautious approach to store expansion to enhance the efficiency of existing outlets [7] - Chow Tai Fook is implementing a mid-term transformation strategy that includes brand transformation, product optimization, and accelerated digital transformation, with plans to open its first flagship store in Shanghai by 2025 [7]

周大福（1929.HK）FY2024年报点评 24 财年归母净利同比+21%，期待利润率持续提升 2024年06月15日 ➢ 事件概述。周大福发布FY2024财年业绩公告及24年4月1日至5月31 推荐 维持评级 日主要经营数据。FY2024，集团实现营业额1087.13亿港元，同比+14.82%， 实现归母净利润64.99亿港元，同比+20.71%，主要经营溢利率同比+1.2 pct至 当前价格： 8.62港元 11.2%。2024财年全年派发股息0.55港元/股，全年派息率达84.6%。 ➢ 黄金产品与加盟渠道收入增速较快，分区域同店增速稳健提升。1）分地区 看：FY24，受节日需求驱动及新开门店店效稳步提升推动，中国内地实现营收 [T able_Author] 896.98 亿港元，同比+9.9%，占总营收比例为 82.5%；受益于入境旅游的持续 复苏，中国香港、中国澳门及其他市场实现营收190.15亿港元，同比+45.6%， 占总营收比例为17.5%。2）分产品看（不含珠宝贸易及来自加盟商的服务收入）： FY24，珠宝镶嵌、铂金及K金首饰收入同比-13.3%，黄金首饰及产品收入同比 +22.5%，收入 ...

华福证券 钟表珠宝 2024年06月14日 公 司 周大福（ ） 01929.HK 买入（维持评级） 研 究 24FY 稳健复苏，4-5 月受金价扰动观望情绪重 当前价格： 9.46港元 基本数据 投资要点： 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 9,987.74/9,987.74 流通市值(百万港元) 94,483.99  24FY营收同增14.8%，主要经营溢利同增28.9% 每股净资产(港元) 2.57 资产负债率(%) 69.89 24FY公司实现营收1087.13亿港元/+14.8%，主要经营溢利121.63 一年内最高/最低价(港元) 15.48/9.27 亿港元/+28.9%，实现毛利率22.80%/-0.8pct（经调整，下同），主要系 一年内股价相对走势 黄金产品持续高景气度，收入增长的同时产品结构调整，毛利率略有 下降。公司拟每股派发0.3港元，全年派息率84.6%。 公  中国内地门店拐点明确，新店运营提质增效 司 财 24FY 中国内地实现营收 896.98 亿港元/+9.9%，毛利率 报 22.5%/-0.8pct，主要系批发和黄金业务占比提升，销售费用率下降1.8pct 点 至11.4% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929 HK) [5] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY2024 performance was stable with revenue and net profit growing by 14 8% and 20 7% respectively [1] - The company's adjusted gross margin decreased by 0 9 percentage points to 22 8% due to changes in product mix and increased wholesale channel contribution [1] - Mainland China revenue grew by 9 9% with wholesale channel revenue increasing by 15 1% [1] - Hong Kong Macau and other regions saw a significant revenue increase of 45 6% driven by improved consumption from mainland tourists [2] - The company expects single digit revenue growth and over 10% net profit growth for FY2025 [2] Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue reached HKD 108 713 billion with net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 6 499 billion [1] - Mainland China revenue accounted for HKD 896 98 billion with retail and wholesale channels growing by 3 6% and 15 1% respectively [1] - Hong Kong Macau and other regions contributed HKD 190 15 billion to revenue [2] - The company's operating profit margin improved by 1 2 percentage points to 11 2% [1] Store Operations - As of FY2024 the company operated 7 403 Chow Tai Fook jewelry retail points in Mainland China with a net increase of 143 stores [1] - Directly operated stores accounted for 23 3% while franchised stores made up 76 7% of the total [1] - Store distribution by city tier was 12 2% in Tier 1 cities 42 3% in Tier 2 cities 21 9% in Tier 3 cities and 23 7% in Tier 4 and other cities [1] Product Performance - Gold product revenue in Mainland China increased by 23 3% while镶嵌 product revenue decreased by 5 9% [2] - Priced gold products accounted for 84 6% of gold product revenue with a slight decrease of 0 4 percentage points year over year [2] - Diamond镶嵌 products accounted for 57 7% of镶嵌 product revenue a decrease of 2 8 percentage points year over year [2] Future Outlook - The company expects FY2025 revenue to grow in the single digits with net profit growth exceeding 10% [2] - Long term growth is expected to be driven by improved single store efficiency and product optimization [2] - FY2025 FY2027 net profit is forecasted to be HKD 7 323 billion HKD 8 224 billion and HKD 9 273 billion respectively [2] Valuation - The company's FY2025 PE ratio is estimated at 13x [2] - FY2025 FY2027 EPS is projected to be HKD 0 73 HKD 0 82 and HKD 0 93 respectively [2][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929 HK) [1][4][8] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook achieved steady growth in FY2024 with revenue of HKD 108 713 billion (+14 82% YoY) and net profit of HKD 6 499 billion (+20 71% YoY) driven by recovery in gold jewelry demand [1][5] - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0 3 per share with a full-year dividend payout ratio of 84 6% [1][5] - Retail sales value for April-May 2024 declined by 20 2% YoY mainly due to high gold price volatility impacting consumer demand [1][5] Business Performance Product Categories - Gold jewelry and products revenue increased by 22 5% YoY accounting for 82% of total revenue (+5 1pct YoY) [1][6] - Jewelry inlaid platinum and K-gold jewelry revenue decreased by 13 3% YoY with revenue share dropping to 13 4% (-4 4pct YoY) [1][6] Regional Performance - Hong Kong Macau and other markets revenue grew by 45 6% YoY [1][6] - Mainland China (excluding Hong Kong and Macau) revenue increased by 9 9% YoY accounting for 82 5% of total revenue with same-store sales growth of 1 8% [1][6] - Franchise stores achieved same-store sales growth of 7 4% benefiting from improved store efficiency [1][6] Store Expansion - The company added 136 net new stores in FY2024 reaching a total of 7 782 stores maintaining industry leadership [1][6] Product Innovation - The Heritage series achieved retail value growth of approximately 20% in FY2024 [1][6] - The "Four Beauties of Life" and "Lily of the Valley" series performed steadily [1][6] Financial Performance Profitability - Gross margin decreased by 1 86pct to 20 5% mainly due to higher proportion of lower-margin gold products [1][7] - Adjusted gross margin (excluding unrealized gains/losses from gold borrowing) decreased by 0 9pct to 22 8% [1][7] Cost Control - Selling expenses ratio decreased by 1 78pct to 8 75% [1][7] - Administrative expenses ratio decreased by 0 45pct to 3 48% [1][7] Operational Efficiency - Inventory turnover days improved from 294 days to 274 days [1][8] - Operating cash flow increased by 37 45% YoY to HKD 13 836 billion [1][8] Industry Outlook - The gold jewelry industry is expected to maintain growth momentum supported by gold price and value-preservation demand [1][8] - Brand competitiveness is becoming increasingly important in the industry [1][8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow to HKD 120 048 billion in FY2025 (+10 43% YoY) and HKD 140 149 billion in FY2027 [2][9] - Net profit is forecasted to reach HKD 7 249 billion in FY2025 (+11 53% YoY) and HKD 8 976 billion in FY2027 [2][9] - EPS is expected to increase from HKD 0 65 in FY2024 to HKD 0 90 in FY2027 [2][9] - ROE is projected to remain stable at around 25% from FY2025 to FY2027 [2][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In FY2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.7%, with total revenue reaching HKD 108.7 billion, a year-on-year growth of 14.8% [3] - The gross profit margin declined due to product mix changes, but operational efficiency improved significantly [3] - Same-store sales in mainland China grew by 1.8%, primarily driven by gold products [3] - The company continues to open new stores with a focus on high-quality expansion, particularly in second-tier cities [3] - Retail sales were impacted by high gold prices, leading to a decline in sales growth in April and May 2024 [4] - Profit forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 have been adjusted downwards due to the pressure on terminal consumption from fluctuating gold prices [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY2024 total revenue was HKD 108,713 million, up 14.82% year-on-year, with net profit of HKD 6,499 million, up 20.71% [2][3] - The adjusted gross profit margin was 22.8%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to unrealized losses from gold loans [3] Sales Performance - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 1.8%, with gold product sales growing by 6.4% [3] - Retail sales in April and May 2024 saw a significant decline, with overall retail sales down 20.2% year-on-year [4] Store Expansion - The company opened 143 new stores in mainland China, with a focus on franchise channels [3] Profit Forecasts - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 are HKD 7,308 million and HKD 8,983 million, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 14.82% year-on-year for FY2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 20.71% [2] - The company experienced a decline in same-store sales, with a 20.2% drop in retail value during the period from April 1 to May 31, 2024 [2][9] - The overall gross margin decreased by 2.08 percentage points to 20.50% for FY2024 [2] - The company opened 136 new stores, bringing the total to 7,782 stores as of March 31, 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue reached HKD 108.71 billion, a 14.82% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 6.50 billion, translating to an EPS of HKD 0.65, up 20.71% [2][5] - For the second half of FY2024, revenue was HKD 59.19 billion, a 22.92% increase, but net profit decreased by 4.91% to HKD 1.95 billion [2] Operational Metrics - The company’s gross margin for FY2024 was 20.50%, down 2.08 percentage points, with a second-half gross margin of 16.80%, down 4.29 percentage points [2] - The operating expense ratio decreased by 1.57 percentage points to 12.88% for FY2024 [2] Store Expansion - The company added 136 new stores in FY2024, with a total of 7,782 stores as of March 31, 2024 [3] - The number of stores in mainland China reached 7,403, an increase of 143 stores [3] Market Position - The report highlights the company's strong competitive position in terms of channel strength and brand power within the industry [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) despite a downward revision in profit forecasts due to declining gross margins and slower store expansion [4] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY2024 revenue grew 14 82% YoY to HKD 108 713 billion while net profit attributable to shareholders increased 20 71% to HKD 6 499 billion [2] - The company's gross margin declined by 2 08 percentage points to 20 50% in FY2024 with a more significant drop of 4 29 percentage points in 2HFY2024 [2] - Retail value decreased by 20 2% YoY for the period from April 1 to May 31 2024 with mainland China down 18 8% and Hong Kong Macau other markets down 29% [2] Financial Performance - FY2024 operating expenses ratio decreased by 1 57 percentage points to 12 88% with sales management financial expense ratios at 8 75% 3 48% 0 65% respectively [2] - The company added 136 net new stores in FY2024 bringing the total to 7 782 stores with mainland China accounting for 7 403 stores [3] - Profit forecasts for FY2025 FY2026 were revised down by 7% 8% to HKD 7 439 billion HKD 8 182 billion respectively with a new FY2027 forecast of HKD 8 797 billion [4] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is projected to decline from 15 in FY2024 to 11 in FY2027 while PB ratio is expected to decrease from 3 7 to 3 2 over the same period [5] - ROE (attributable to parent company diluted) is forecasted to increase from 25 27% in FY2024 to 29 43% in FY2027 [5] Market Data - Chow Tai Fook's total market capitalization stands at HKD 94 484 billion with a 52 week price range of HKD 9 27 to HKD 12 98 [6] - The stock has shown negative performance relative to the Hang Seng Index with -32 24% over 3 months and -28 08% over 1 year [7]

Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group achieved record high revenue of HK$108,713 million in FY2024, representing a 14.8% increase, or 18.5% on a constant exchange rate basis[10]. - Core operating profit increased by 28.9% to HK$12,163 million, with the core operating profit margin improving by 120 basis points to 11.2%[10]. - Revenue for the year ended March 31, 2024, reached HK$108,713 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.7%[17]. - Core operating profit for the same period was HK$12,163 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.9%[17]. - Earnings per share increased to HK$0.65, up from HK$0.54 in the previous year, marking a growth of 20.4%[17]. - Profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.7% to HK$6,499 million, with earnings per share at HK$0.65[28]. - The gross profit margin for the year was 20.5%, down from 22.4% in the previous year[17]. - The adjusted gross profit margin moderated by 90 basis points to 22.8% due to changes in product and wholesale mix[84]. - The net gearing ratio as of March 31, 2024, was 78.2%, significantly higher than 27.6% in the previous year[18]. - The Group's total equity as of March 31, 2024, was HK$33,360 million, a decrease of HK$6,614 million from HK$26,746 million in 2023[178]. Market Performance - Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets climbed 45.6% year-on-year, driven by the recovery in inbound tourism[10]. - Retail sales value (RSV) in Hong Kong and Macau grew by 36.7% during FY2024, driven by increased tourist arrivals and the Lunar New Year holiday[71]. - The Mainland jewellery market is expected to remain resilient, driven by a GDP growth target of around 5% and increasing demand from young consumers[33]. - Retail sales volume in Mainland China for the year ended 31 March 2023 was 21,988,000 units, a slight decrease from 22,118,000 units in 2022[20]. - The retail sales value (RSV) in Hong Kong and Macau surged by 32.0% and 53.2% respectively, driven by the recovery of inbound tourism[163]. - The Mainland continued to be the main profit contributor, accounting for over 85% of the group's core operating profit in FY2024[100]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is undergoing a brand transformation to enhance brand desirability and customer experience, including the launch of new consumer-facing logos and the CTF Rouge Collection[10]. - Strategic priorities include brand transformation, product optimization, accelerated digitalization, operational efficiency, and talent cultivation[27]. - Chow Tai Fook plans to enhance customer experience across omni-channel touchpoints to adapt to evolving consumer preferences[33]. - The company is implementing a strategic refurbishment of all stores over the next five years in preparation for its 100th anniversary in 2029[47]. - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and profitability through selective store openings and closures in its retail network[65]. Operational Efficiency - The number of retail points increased by 143 to a total of 7,403, with same-store sales growth (SSSG) of 1.8%[14]. - Inventory turnover period improved to 274 days, compared to 294 days in the previous year[18]. - The company aims to leverage AI and a comprehensive data lake to enhance operational efficiency and data-driven decision-making[49]. - The average selling price (ASP) of e-commerce products increased to approximately HK$2,080 in FY2024, up from HK$1,870 in FY2023, reflecting a growth of around 11.2%[129]. - The overall SSS volume growth was 32.0%, with gem-set, platinum, and k-gold jewellery experiencing a decline of 4.8%[142]. Awards and Recognition - The company received multiple awards in 2023, including Best CEO and Best CFO, reflecting strong governance and investor relations performance[21]. Future Outlook - The company expects a same-store sales growth of 1.8% for the year ending 31 March 2024 in Mainland China[20]. - The Group remains cautiously optimistic for FY2025, focusing on enhancing store productivity and disciplined cost management[78]. - The company anticipates growth opportunities in Southeast Asia, driven by a rising middle class and economic recovery in tourism[34].