Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 38.986 billion for FY2026H1, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, an increase of 0.1% [5] - The company is actively pursuing brand transformation and product optimization, which has led to an upward revision of profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 [5] - Same-store sales in mainland China showed a recovery with a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in FY2026H1, and a significant growth of 38.8% from October 1 to November 18, 2025 [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For FY2026E, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 90.018 billion, with a net profit of HKD 8.247 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.4% [9] - The projected EPS for FY2026E is HKD 0.83, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.7, 14.9, and 13.7 for FY2026E, FY2027E, and FY2028E respectively [9] - The gross margin for FY2026H1 was reported at 30.5%, slightly down by 0.9 percentage points, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin products [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for FY2026H1, but operating profit showed a steady improvement, indicating a recovery trend in its performance [1][2]. Revenue Performance - For FY2026H1, the company's revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year to HKD 38.986 billion, while operating profit increased by 0.7% to HKD 6.823 billion, with an operating margin improvement of 0.3 percentage points to 17.5% [1]. - In mainland China, revenue fell by 2.5% to HKD 32.194 billion, with retail channel revenue increasing by 8.1% and wholesale channel revenue decreasing by 10.2% due to store integration [1][2]. Channel Strategy - The company focused on optimizing single-store operations and reported strong growth in e-commerce sales, which increased by 27.6% year-on-year [2]. - As of the end of the reporting period, the company operated 5,663 retail stores in mainland China, with 73% being franchise stores, and closed 611 stores since the beginning of the fiscal year [2]. Product Performance - The sales revenue from priced gold jewelry increased by 9.3%, accounting for 29.6% of total revenue, while revenue from gold jewelry priced by weight decreased by 3.8% [2]. - The company emphasized product optimization, with notable sales growth in its signature product series, achieving HKD 3.4 billion in sales for the Chuanxi, Chuanfu, and Palace Museum series, a 48% increase year-on-year [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and other regions grew by 6.5% to HKD 6.792 billion, benefiting from a recovery in retail consumption and foot traffic [3]. - The company is actively expanding its international market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and Oceania, while enhancing the retail experience through store upgrades and new openings [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects a revenue growth of 3% for FY2026 and a 37% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [3]. - Projections for net profit for FY2026-2028 are HKD 80.92 billion, HKD 92.01 billion, and HKD 103.90 billion, respectively, with a PE ratio of 19 times for FY2026 [4].

Core Insights - The company's 1HFY26 performance slightly underperformed expectations, with a revenue decline of 1.1% to HKD 39 billion and a net profit of HKD 2.5 billion, remaining flat year-on-year, primarily due to gross margin impacts [1][2] - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of 86% [1] Revenue Performance - Revenue in mainland China decreased by 2.5% to HKD 32.2 billion, with ongoing optimization of the store network to enhance retail performance and profitability [1] - The number of retail points decreased by 16 for direct stores and 595 for franchises, while same-store sales increased by 2.6% and 4.8% respectively [1] - New store monthly sales improved by 72% year-on-year, exceeding HKD 1.3 million [1] - Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets increased by 6.5% to HKD 6.8 billion, with same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau growing by 4.4% [1] Product Categories - Revenue from priced jewelry rose by 9.3%, increasing its revenue share to 29.6%, with mainland China reaching 31.8% [1] - Revenue from gold jewelry and watches declined by 3.8% and 10.6% respectively [1] Cost Management - Gross margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points, influenced by rising gold prices and sales timing differences [2] - Sales and management expense ratios decreased by 0.9 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points respectively, benefiting from channel optimization and strict cost management [2] - Gold borrowing losses amounted to HKD 3.1 billion due to rising gold prices [2] Brand and Product Development - The company continues to focus on enhancing product quality and brand strength, launching its first high-end jewelry series "He Mei Dong Fang" in June [2] - Iconic series "Palace Museum," "Chuan Fu," and "Chuan Xi" achieved sales of HKD 3.4 billion in 1HFY26, compared to HKD 2.3 billion in 1HFY25 [2] Sales Trends - From early October to November 18, overall retail sales increased by 34%, with same-store sales in mainland China for direct and franchise stores growing by 39% and 49% respectively, and Hong Kong and Macau same-store sales increasing by 18% [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for FY26 and FY27 at HKD 0.87 and HKD 0.93 respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 18x and 16x FY26 and FY27 P/E ratios, with a target price of HKD 19.45, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current price [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for FY26H1 but showed resilience in net profit, with strong growth in retail sales and a positive outlook due to rising gold prices [1][4]. Financial Performance - FY26H1 revenue was HKD 38.99 billion, down 1.1% year-on-year, while operating profit increased by 0.7% to HKD 6.82 billion, and net profit rose by 0.1% to HKD 2.53 billion [1]. - The interim dividend declared was HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [1]. - The company expects net profits for FY2026 to FY2028 to be HKD 8.707 billion, HKD 9.804 billion, and HKD 10.864 billion, respectively, with a current market capitalization corresponding to a FY26 PE of 17.5X [1][4]. Regional Performance - In FY26H1, revenue from mainland China was HKD 32.19 billion, down 2.5%, while revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets was HKD 6.79 billion, up 6.5% [1]. - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 2.6% for direct stores and 4.8% for franchise stores, while Hong Kong and Macau saw a 4.4% increase, with Hong Kong at 1.8% and Macau at 13.7% [1]. Product and Channel Structure - The revenue from priced jewelry increased by 9.3%, while revenue from gold jewelry decreased by 3.8% in FY26H1 [1][2]. - The proportion of revenue from priced jewelry rose to 29.6%, up from 26.9% in FY25H1, with high-margin products contributing HKD 3.4 billion, accounting for 8.7% of total revenue [2]. - The retail value in first-tier cities grew by 8.7%, with the proportion of retail value in first and second-tier markets increasing from 55.3% in FY25 to 64.7% in FY26 [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company closed 611 underperforming stores, ending FY26H1 with 5,663 retail points in mainland China, while maintaining 88 stores in Hong Kong and Macau [2]. - The gross profit margin for FY26H1 was 30.5%, a slight decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to rising gold prices and lower product category margins [3]. - The SG&A ratio improved by 1.2 percentage points to 14.0%, leading to an operating profit margin of 17.5%, the highest in five years [3]. Recent Sales Data - From October 1 to November 18, 2025, overall retail value grew by 33.9%, with mainland China up 35.1% and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets up 26.5% [4]. - Same-store sales in mainland China surged by 38.8%, with priced jewelry up 93.9% and gold jewelry up 23.0% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown stable overall performance in the first half of the fiscal year, with accelerated growth since October, despite a slight decline in revenue due to strategic store reductions and high gold prices impacting product weight [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year 2026 (April 2025 - September 2025), the company achieved revenue of HKD 38.986 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, reflecting a minor year-on-year increase of 0.13% [1] - From October 1 to November 18, the group’s retail value increased by 33.9%, with same-store sales in mainland China growing by 38.8% [1] Group 2: Business Segmentation - Retail revenue in mainland China increased by 8.1%, accounting for 38.4% of total revenue, while wholesale revenue decreased by 10.2%, making up 44.2% of total revenue [2] - Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets grew by 6.5%, representing 17.4% of total revenue [2] - The revenue from priced jewelry increased by 9.3%, with a revenue share of 29.6%, indicating strong performance in priced gold products [2] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The overall gross margin was maintained above 30%, recorded at 30.5%, despite a year-on-year decrease of 0.9 percentage points [3] - The selling and administrative expense ratio improved, decreasing by 1.2 percentage points to 14% due to optimized cost control [3] - Inventory turnover days decreased by 33 days to 424 days, indicating improved operational efficiency [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance the layout of high-margin priced products and optimize store structures to boost same-store sales [4] - The fair value loss on gold loans is expected to be higher than previously anticipated, leading to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026-2028 [4] - The projected net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are HKD 7.141 billion, HKD 8.178 billion, and HKD 9.061 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.1, 18.4, and 16.6 times [4]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's mid-term performance shows signs of recovery with improved sales and profitability metrics, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future growth [1][2][3] Financial Performance - For FY26H1, Chow Tai Fook reported revenue of HKD 38.99 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, but a significant improvement compared to previous periods [1] - Operating profit reached HKD 6.82 billion, up 0.7% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 17.5%, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase and a five-year high [1] - The group maintained a gross margin of 30.5%, supported by a higher proportion of high-margin priced jewelry and rising gold prices [1] - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, reflecting confidence in future growth [1] Sales Performance - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) for FY26H1 showed positive trends, with mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau recording SSSG of +2.6% and +4.4%, respectively, representing significant year-on-year improvements of 30.0 and 35.2 percentage points [1] - Retail sales of priced jewelry in mainland China increased by 16.1% year-on-year, while gold retail sales declined by 5.8% [2] - The company launched its first high-end jewelry line, "He Mei Dong Fang," enhancing brand positioning and influence [2] Store Network Optimization - Chow Tai Fook is optimizing its store network by closing underperforming stores and opening new concept stores, focusing on improving single-store efficiency and profitability [2] - In FY25H1, the company closed 609 stores, ending the period with 5,663 stores in mainland China and 151 in Hong Kong/Macau [2] - New concept stores achieved an average monthly sales of HKD 1.3 million, a 72% year-on-year increase, indicating improved productivity [2] Market Trends and Future Outlook - Retail growth has accelerated since October, with a 33.9% year-on-year increase in retail value from October 1 to November 18, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand [3] - The implementation of a new gold tax policy in early November may temporarily disrupt demand but is expected to raise industry compliance standards, benefiting leading brands like Chow Tai Fook [3] - Profit forecasts for FY26 to FY28 are set at HKD 81.2 billion, HKD 89.1 billion, and HKD 99.0 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 37.3%, 9.8%, and 11.0%, respectively [3] - The target price is set at HKD 19.4, corresponding to a 24 times PE ratio for FY26, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook Group has pledged HKD 20 million to provide emergency assistance to residents affected by the fire in Hong Kong's Tai Po Wang Fuk Court [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Following the fire incident, Chow Tai Fook Group mobilized its subsidiaries on November 26 to offer temporary accommodation, food, warm clothing, and daily necessities to the affected residents [1] - The group will also initiate an internal employee donation campaign to support the families of Wang Fuk Court residents and assist in post-disaster reconstruction efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook Group expresses deep concern and sorrow over the serious fire incident at Hong Fu Court in Tai Po, Hong Kong, and announces a donation of HKD 20 million for emergency assistance to affected residents [1] Group 1 - The company has mobilized its subsidiaries to provide temporary accommodation, food, warm clothing, and daily necessities to the affected residents immediately after the fire [1] - Chow Tai Fook Group will initiate an internal employee donation campaign to support the families of Hong Fu Court residents and assist in post-disaster reconstruction [1] - The company pays high respect to firefighters, frontline and support rescue personnel, as well as medical teams involved in the disaster response [1] Group 2 - Chow Tai Fook Group will continue to monitor the situation and its volunteer teams are ready to cooperate with the government to provide practical follow-up support [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook Group has pledged HKD 20 million to support residents affected by the fire in Hong Kong's Tai Po Wang Fuk Court, providing emergency assistance and aid for recovery efforts [1] Group 1 - The donation of HKD 20 million aims to assist residents impacted by the fire [1] - Following the fire incident, Chow Tai Fook Group mobilized its subsidiaries on November 26 to provide temporary accommodation, food, warm clothing, and daily necessities to affected residents [1] - The group will also initiate an internal employee fundraising campaign to support the families of Wang Fuk Court residents and contribute to post-disaster reconstruction efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged, reaching a historical high of $4,300 per ounce in October, with a year-to-date increase of over 58%, leading to heightened market attention on the performance of leading gold companies like Chow Tai Fook [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of HKD 38.986 billion for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [1] - The operating profit was HKD 6.823 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [1] - Shareholder profit stood at HKD 2.534 billion, a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Product Strategy - The "fixed-price" gold jewelry products have emerged as a key growth driver, with the gross profit margin maintained above 30% due to high-margin pricing and rising gold prices [4] - Sales from key product series, including the Palace Museum series, reached HKD 3.4 billion, up approximately 48% from HKD 2.3 billion in the previous year [4] - The retail value contribution of fixed-price jewelry in mainland China increased from 27.4% to 31.8%, with the average selling price of fixed-price gold jewelry rising from HKD 5,300 to HKD 6,300 [4] Group 3: Retail Strategy - Chow Tai Fook closed 611 retail points in the past six months, reducing the total number of retail points in mainland China to 5,663 as of September 30, 2025 [5][7] - The company reported a 2.6% increase in same-store sales in mainland China, indicating improved performance from the store optimization strategy [7] - Chow Tai Fook is strategically expanding into high-end shopping centers and core locations to enhance brand appeal, with plans to open six new stores in international markets by June 2026 [7] Group 4: Pricing Adjustments - In response to rising international gold prices, Chow Tai Fook has implemented multiple price increases, with adjustments ranging from 10% to 20% in March and 12% to 18% in late October [8] - As of November 26, the company had completed three rounds of price increases throughout the year [8]