Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook (01929) experienced a decline of over 3%, with a current price of HKD 13.82 and a trading volume of HKD 218 million [1] Financial Performance - For the six months ending September 30, 2025, Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of HKD 38.986 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.07% [1] - The company's profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.16% [1] - The gross profit margin narrowed by 0.9 percentage points to 30.5% compared to the previous year [1] Market Expectations - Daiwa released a report indicating that Chow Tai Fook's revenue and net profit for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year were 2% to 3% lower than market expectations [1] - Despite this, Daiwa believes that the positive factors in the performance outweigh the negatives [1] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio and per-share dividend, while also providing a conservative upward revision of its performance guidance for the second half of the 2026 fiscal year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's stock has declined over 3%, currently trading at HKD 13.82, with a trading volume of HKD 218 million [1] Financial Performance - For the six months ending September 30, 2025, Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of HKD 38.986 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.07% [1] - The company's profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.16% [1] - The gross profit margin narrowed by 0.9 percentage points to 30.5% compared to the previous year [1] Market Expectations - According to Daiwa's report, Chow Tai Fook's revenue and net profit for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year were 2% to 3% lower than market expectations [1] - Despite the lower-than-expected performance, Daiwa believes that the positive factors in the results outweigh the negatives [1] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio and per-share dividend, while also raising its earnings guidance for the second half of the 2026 fiscal year, which Daiwa considers conservative [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has raised its earnings per share forecast for Chow Tai Fook (01929) for the years 2026 to 2028 by 2% to 5%, and increased the 12-month target price from HKD 15.5 to HKD 18, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times and reiterating a "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook's revenue and net profit for the first half of the fiscal year ending September 2026 were 2% to 3% lower than market expectations, but the company believes that positive factors outweigh negative ones [1] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio and per-share dividend, while also raising its guidance for the second half of the fiscal year 2026, which Daiwa considers conservative [1] Gold Price Impact - During the first half of fiscal year 2026, the price of gold increased by 40% year-on-year, leading to a hedge loss of approximately HKD 3.1 billion [1] - If gold prices remain at the current level (approximately USD 4,100 per ounce) before the end of fiscal year 2026, an estimated additional hedge loss of about HKD 2 billion is expected in the second half of the fiscal year [1] - However, higher gross margins are anticipated to offset these impacts, with management raising its gross margin guidance to 31% to 32% following a significant retail price increase, including a 20% price hike on gold products [1] Sales Growth Outlook - Management has maintained its previous guidance for revenue and same-store sales growth in the low single digits and mid-single digits, but Daiwa believes this is overly conservative, expecting a low double-digit growth in same-store sales for the first three quarters [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that Chow Tai Fook's performance for the first half of the fiscal year ending September 2026 fell 2% to 3% below market expectations, but the report suggests that positive factors outweigh negative ones [1] Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook's revenue and net profit for the first half of the fiscal year ending September 2026 were lower than market expectations by 2% to 3% [1] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio and per-share dividend, which reflects a positive outlook [1] Earnings Guidance - Chow Tai Fook has raised its earnings guidance for the second half of the fiscal year 2026, although Daiwa considers this guidance to be conservative [1] Earnings Forecast - Based on revised profit margin forecasts, Daiwa has raised Chow Tai Fook's earnings per share estimates for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 by 2% to 5% [1] Target Price - Daiwa has increased the 12-month target price for Chow Tai Fook from HKD 15.5 to HKD 18 and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1: Leadership Changes - LuxExperience B.V. announced Francis Belin as the new CEO of Mytheresa, effective January 1, 2026, bringing extensive experience in luxury brand management and international expansion [1] - Prada Group's CEO Andrea Guerra confirmed the acquisition of Versace for €1.25 billion, with plans for Lorenzo Bertelli to become the executive chairman of Versace [8] Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - TikTok Shop has expanded into the luxury goods market, featuring high-priced second-hand items, including Hermes and Chanel bags, and Rolex watches, with a focus on AI verification for authenticity [2] - Lyst's 2025 Gift Index shows significant demand growth for brands like Coach and Burberry, with Coach's cherry charm demand up 99% and Burberry's overall search volume increasing by 239% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Economic Impact - Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group reported a net profit of HK$2.5 billion for the first half of the year, slightly below market expectations, with a gross margin decrease to 30.5% [5] - The UK Treasury plans to eliminate the import duty exemption for goods priced under £135, potentially generating an additional £500 million in annual revenue [7] Group 4: E-commerce and Sales Data - eBay's 2025 Watchlist report highlighted LV, Gucci, and Prada as the top luxury brands, with LV listing over 5.2 million items on the platform [6] Group 5: Corporate Investments - LVMH is set to invest up to €150 million in the French newspaper Le Parisien to stabilize its financial situation [9] - Prada has acquired a property in Milan for €66.6 million, aimed at consolidating office and display spaces [10] Group 6: Retail Management - Harrods promoted Mark Blundell to Chief Retail Officer, responsible for enhancing service and operational standards across all retail channels [11]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group has been under pressure due to significant fluctuations in the international gold market since 2025, with a reported revenue decline and challenges in maintaining store numbers amid changing consumer preferences [2][6]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of HK$38.986 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, marking the lowest level in five years [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders remained stable at HK$2.534 billion, with earnings per share at HK$0.26 [3]. - The overall gross profit margin for the reporting period was 30.5%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable decline in the mainland China business gross margin [4]. Market Trends - The high gold prices have led consumers to shift towards lighter and smaller products, with sales of priced jewelry in mainland China increasing by 9.3%, contributing 29.6% to total revenue [5]. - The retail value of priced jewelry in mainland China grew by 16.1%, while the retail value of weight-priced gold jewelry decreased by 5.8%, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [5]. Store Operations - The number of stores in mainland China decreased by 606 to 5,895, returning to 2022 levels, while the company opened 57 new retail points during the reporting period [6]. - Chow Tai Fook is focusing on optimizing its channel structure and enhancing store efficiency through the opening of new image stores in high-end locations [6]. Online Business Growth - Chow Tai Fook's online retail value in mainland China increased by 27.6%, accounting for 7.1% of total regional retail value, with significant growth in its official mall and Douyin platform [7]. - Despite the rapid growth in online sales, the overall scale remains relatively limited, and the sustainability of this growth amid high competition and costs is yet to be validated [7].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group has been under pressure due to fluctuations in the international gold market, with a notable decline in revenue and store count, prompting the company to adapt its strategies to maintain market share and profitability [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year 2026, Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of HK$ 38.986 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, marking the lowest level in five years [1][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders remained stable at HK$ 2.534 billion, with earnings per share at HK$ 0.26 [4]. - The overall gross profit margin for the period was 30.5%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable decline in the mainland China business gross margin [4][5]. Market Trends - The high gold prices are driving consumers towards lighter and smaller products, with small-weight gold products (under 10 grams) accounting for 45% of total gold jewelry sales in the first half of 2025, an increase of 8 percentage points from 2023 [5]. - The implementation of a new value-added tax policy starting November 2025 is expected to push manufacturers and retailers to focus on developing high-value products, which typically have better margins [5]. Store Operations - Chow Tai Fook's store count in mainland China decreased by 606 to 5,895, returning to 2022 levels, while the company opened 57 new retail points during the same period [6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its channel structure and enhancing the shopping experience through new store formats and high-end locations [6]. Online Business Growth - The online retail value in mainland China increased by 27.6%, accounting for 7.1% of total retail value, with significant growth in the official online store and Douyin platform [7]. - Despite the rapid growth in online sales, the overall scale remains relatively limited, and the sustainability of this growth amidst high competition and costs is yet to be validated [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the performance metrics and growth outlook discussed in the report [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook has shown a recovery in same-store sales, with a notable increase in retail value and a positive consumer response despite high gold prices [2]. - The company has optimized its product structure, with a significant increase in the sales of priced jewelry, which has enhanced brand strength [3]. - Continuous optimization of channels and the introduction of new store formats are accelerating the brand transformation [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026 H1, Chow Tai Fook reported revenue of HKD 38.986 billion, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 2.534 billion, reflecting a modest increase of 0.2% [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [1]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the mainland China market accounted for 82.6% of total sales, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, while sales outside mainland China increased by 6.5% [2]. Product and Market Dynamics - The sales of priced jewelry in mainland China increased by 16.1%, while the sales of gold jewelry decreased by 5.8% [3]. - The launch of the high-end jewelry series "He Mei Dong Fang" has demonstrated strong demand, with nearly 200 pieces sold during the promotional event [3]. - The company has also introduced new jadeite designs and collaborated with notable brands to enhance its product offerings [3]. Operational Efficiency - Chow Tai Fook has optimized its store network, closing a net of 611 stores in FY2026 H1, resulting in a total of 5,663 stores [4]. - The gross profit margin for FY2026 H1 was 30.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower margins in retail due to gold price fluctuations [5]. - The company has successfully reduced its inventory turnover days to approximately 424 days, a decrease of about 33 days year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [5]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for Chow Tai Fook for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 7.980 billion, HKD 9.110 billion, and HKD 10.296 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.7X, 15.5X, and 13.7X [5][6].

公司 FY2026H1 营收同比下降 1.1%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%，经营 表现稳步改善。公司披露 FY2026H1 中报，公司营收同比下降 1.1%至 389.86 亿港元，与此同时受益于产品结构优化以及公司良好的费用管控， 经营利润率同比提升 0.3pcts 至 17.5%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%至 68.23 亿港元，呈现稳步复苏的态势，综合考虑黄金借贷公允价值变动的影响后， 归母净利润同比增长 0.1%至 25.34 亿港元。公司派发中期股息每股 0.22 港元，派息率 85.7%。 证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 26 年 月 日 周大福（01929.HK） FY2026H1 经营表现稳健，期待下半财年复苏表现 内地：FY2026H1 内地营收下降 2.5%，公司持续优化渠道网络。 FY2026H1 中国内地营收同比下降 2.5%至 321.94 亿港元，其中零售/批 发渠道营收同比+8.1%/-10.2%，门店整合导致批发业务营收下降。 ➢ 渠道端：FY2026H1 线下聚焦单店运营优化门店，电商增速亮眼。 截止期末公司于中国内地拥有 5663 家 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The overall performance for the first half of the fiscal year is stable, with accelerated growth since October. For the first half of fiscal year 2026 (April 2025 - September 2025), the company achieved revenue of HKD 38.986 billion, a slight decline of 1.1% year-on-year, impacted by store strategy contraction and high gold prices affecting product weight. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, a slight increase of 0.13%, maintaining overall stability. Since October, the company has seen further acceleration in growth, with retail value increasing by 33.9% year-on-year from October 1 to November 18, and same-store sales in mainland China growing by 38.8% [1][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The retail revenue in mainland China increased by 8.1%, accounting for 38.4% of total revenue. Wholesale revenue in mainland China decreased by 10.2%, making up 44.2% of total revenue due to overall store contraction and reduced purchasing under high gold prices. Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets grew by 6.5%, accounting for 17.4% of total revenue. The revenue from priced jewelry increased by 9.3%, representing 29.6% of total revenue, with priced gold performing particularly well [2] Cost Management and Margins - The overall gross margin remained above 30%, at 30.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a reduced increase in gold prices compared to the same period last year. The increase in the proportion of priced products positively impacted the gross margin. The selling and administrative expense ratio decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 14%, benefiting from cost control optimization. Inventory turnover days shortened by 33 days to 424 days [3] Future Outlook and Adjustments - The company plans to further enhance the layout of high-margin priced products and optimize store structure to boost same-store sales. Given the 32.4% increase in London gold prices since the beginning of fiscal year 2026, which is 7.4 percentage points lower than the previous fiscal year's increase of 39.8%, the expected fair value loss on gold loans has been adjusted higher. Consequently, the net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026-2028 have been revised down to HKD 7.141 billion, HKD 8.178 billion, and HKD 9.061 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.1, 18.4, and 16.6 [4][5]