Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [2][7] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY26H1 revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.1%. The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [6][7] - Strong terminal growth was observed from October 1 to November 18, with same-store sales in mainland China increasing by 38.8%, driven by a 93.9% increase in priced jewelry and a 23.0% increase in gold jewelry [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices in the second half of the fiscal year, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 [7] Financial Performance Summary - FY26H1 revenue was HKD 389.9 billion, with a breakdown showing mainland China revenue at HKD 321.9 billion (down 2.5%) and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets at HKD 67.9 billion (up 6.5%) [6] - The company closed 611 underperforming stores while opening 8 new flagship stores, focusing on enhancing store quality and optimizing the retail network [6] - The gross margin for FY26H1 was 30.5%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.9 percentage points, while operating profit margin reached a five-year high of 17.5% [6][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 94.001 billion, HKD 98.800 billion, and HKD 104.748 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates of HKD 8.707 billion, HKD 9.804 billion, and HKD 10.864 billion [7][8] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a FY26 PE ratio of 17.5X, indicating a favorable valuation [7][8]

值得注意的是，与黄金珠宝行业息息相关的国际金价近期仍呈现高位震荡格局。伦敦金价格10月突破 4300美元/盎司后回落，10月下旬一度回到4000美元/盎司以下，但此后有所回升。截至11月26日中午 12：16，伦敦金报4160.77美元/盎司。 在国际金价居高不下的背景下，国内品牌黄金珠宝店的金饰克价也水涨船高，日前已普遍超过1300元/ 克。11月26日，智通财经查阅周大福今日金价，报于1312元/克。 这对周大福的业绩造成直接的影响。据公司的中期业绩报告，在高毛利定价首饰贡献提升及黄金价格上 涨的支持下，集团毛利率维持于30%以上，处于历史较高水平；期内经营溢利保持韧性，达到68.23亿 港元，同比增长0.7%；公司股东应占溢利同比小幅增长0.1%。 来源：智通财经 11月26日，周大福珠宝集团有限公司（01929.HK）公布半年报业绩后，股价低开低走，一度跌超 7.8%。截至午间收盘，公司股价收跌7.48%，报收14.1港元/股，总市值约1391亿港元。 11月25日晚，周大福发布截至2025年9月30日止的中期业绩。根据公告，2026财年上半年共实现营收 389.9亿港元，同比下降约1.1%，低于市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group Limited reported disappointing interim results, leading to a significant drop in stock price, with revenue and net profit falling short of market expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year ending September 30, 2025, Chow Tai Fook achieved revenue of HKD 38.99 billion, a year-on-year decline of approximately 1.1%, below the market expectation of HKD 40.19 billion [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.53 billion, a slight increase of 0.16% year-on-year, but lower than the expected HKD 2.63 billion [1] - The group's operating profit remained resilient at HKD 6.823 billion, a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, supported by high-margin pricing jewelry and rising gold prices [2] Market Conditions - International gold prices have shown high volatility, with London gold prices fluctuating around USD 4,160.77 per ounce as of November 26, 2023, impacting the jewelry industry [2] - The price of gold jewelry in domestic markets has risen, with Chow Tai Fook's gold price reported at HKD 1,312 per gram [2] Same-Store Sales Performance - The company reported a 2.6% increase in same-store sales for its directly operated retail points in mainland China, and a 4.8% increase for franchise retail points [3] - Same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau rose by 4.4%, driven by improved retail consumption and increased foot traffic [3] - Specifically, Hong Kong saw a 1.8% increase in same-store sales, while Macau experienced a significant growth of 13.7% [3]

该行指出，考虑到金价涨幅超出预期，周大福上调了其毛利率和经营利润率指引，并预计2026财年下半 年的对冲损失将更加可控，且受最新的增值税政策变化影响有限。该行将周大福2026至2028财年各年核 心净利润(撇除对冲损失)预测分别上调7%、2%及3%，以反映最新的指引，特别是2026财年黄金对冲损 失更易控制，及金价走势更有利的预期。中银国际预期，集团将在2026财年下半年，乃至2027财年受益 于同店销售增长的改善，从而实现盈利增长，并有望维持其在中国珠宝行业的领导者地位。 中银国际指，周大福9月底止2026财年上半年业绩看似平淡，收入和净利润分别同比下滑1.1%和增长 0.1%。但基本数据表明，周大福通过战略调整，已大幅提升了单店平均销售额。从2025年10月1日至11 月18日期间的同店销售增长表现来看(中国内地同比增长35.1%)，这趋势已得到验证，数据展现出强劲 的增长势头，尽管面临挑战，下半财年展望更加乐观。 中银国际发布研报称，有关迹象表明周大福(01929)的策略转型正取得成功，并有望在所有业务板块中 获得更多市场份额;重申"买入"评级，目标价从17.8港元上调至18.1港元，相当于预测2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) experienced a significant decline of over 7%, closing at HKD 14.15, with a total market capitalization of HKD 139.59 billion. The company reported its interim results for the fiscal year 2026, revealing lower-than-expected revenue and net profit figures [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year, Chow Tai Fook reported revenue of HKD 38.99 billion, below the forecast of HKD 40.19 billion [1]. - The net profit for the same period was HKD 2.53 billion, also falling short of the expected HKD 2.63 billion [1]. - The interim dividend per share was set at HKD 0.22 [1]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from priced jewelry increased by 9.3% year-on-year [1]. - However, revenue from gold jewelry saw a decline of 3.8% year-on-year [1]. Market Analysis - High gold prices have somewhat suppressed gold jewelry consumption, leading to cautious purchasing behavior among customers, particularly for higher-weight products [1]. - Consumers are increasingly opting for lower-priced jewelry or alternatives [1]. - Some gold retail stores are facing challenges that may lead to closures [1].

该行指出，考虑到金价涨幅超出预期，周大福上调了其毛利率和经营利润率指引，并预计2026财年下半 年的对冲损失将更加可控，且受最新的增值税政策变化影响有限。该行将周大福2026至2028财年各年核 心净利润(撇除对冲损失)预测分别上调7%、2%及3%，以反映最新的指引，特别是2026财年黄金对冲损 失更易控制，及金价走势更有利的预期。中银国际预期，集团将在2026财年下半年，乃至2027财年受益 于同店销售增长的改善，从而实现盈利增长，并有望维持其在中国珠宝行业的领导者地位。 中银国际指，周大福9月底止2026财年上半年业绩看似平淡，收入和净利润分别同比下滑1.1%和增长 0.1%。但基本数据表明，周大福通过战略调整，已大幅提升了单店平均销售额。从2025年10月1日至11 月18日期间的同店销售增长表现来看(中国内地同比增长35.1%)，这趋势已得到验证，数据展现出强劲 的增长势头，尽管面临挑战，下半财年展望更加乐观。 智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，有关迹象表明周大福(01929)的策略转型正取得成功，并有望 在所有业务板块中获得更多市场份额; 重申"买入"评级，目标价从17.8港元上调至18.1港 ...

中银国际认为，有关迹象表明周大福的策略转型正取得成功，并有望在所有业务板块中获得更多市场份 额；重申"买入"评级，目标价从17.8港元上调至18.1港元；将2026至2028财年各年核心净利润(撇除对冲 损失)预测分别上调7%、2%及3%，以反映最新的指引，特别是2026财年黄金对冲损失更易控制，及金 价走势更有利的预期。 中银国际发表研报指，周大福9月底止2026财年上半年业绩看似平淡，收入和净利润分别按年下滑1.1% 和增长0.1%。但基本数据表明，周大福通过战略调整，已大幅提升了单店平均销售额。考虑到金价涨 幅超出预期，周大福上调了其毛利率和经营利润率指引，并预计2026财年下半年的对冲损失将更加可 控，且受最新的增值税政策变化影响有限。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the target price for Chow Tai Fook (01929) from HKD 17.5 to HKD 17.6, reflecting a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times for the fiscal year 2027, while maintaining a "Buy" rating due to the continuous improvement in same-store sales that may support a valuation reassessment [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year ending September 2026, Chow Tai Fook reported a net profit of HKD 2.5 billion, which is roughly flat year-on-year and in line with expectations [1] - Revenue for the same period was HKD 39 billion, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, which was 3% lower than the bank's expectations [1] - The gross margin for the first half was 30.5%, below the expected 31.3%, but partially offset by a reduction in the selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) ratio to 14%, which was lower than the anticipated 15.3% [1] Group 2: Management Guidance - Management has raised the full-year gross margin guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to between 31% and 32%, indicating a year-on-year increase of 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points, compared to the previous expectation of a decline of 0.8 to 1.2 percentage points [1] - The operating profit margin guidance has also been increased to between 18% and 19%, suggesting a year-on-year rise of 1.6 to 2.6 percentage points, whereas the prior expectation was a decline of 0.6 to 1 percentage point [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Following the sales trends from October to mid-November and the better-than-expected profit margin guidance, Bank of America Securities has raised its net profit forecasts for Chow Tai Fook for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 6% and 1%, respectively, to HKD 8.7 billion and HKD 8.8 billion [2] - The bank believes that the management's guidance on same-store sales growth is slightly conservative and sees potential for upward adjustments, asserting that the worst period for same-store sales decline has likely passed [2] - Initiatives aimed at business transformation may support a recovery in profitability [2]

管理层上调明年3月底止2026财年全年毛利率指引，至介乎31%至32%，意味同比升1.5至2.5个百分点， 原先料同比降0.8至1.2个百分点，因金价上升及定价产品销售占比增加。管理层并上调经营利润率指引 至介乎18%至19%，意味同比升1.6至2.6个百分点，原先料同比降0.6至1个百分点。 美银证券发布研报称，将周大福(01929)目标价由原先17.5港元微升至17.6港元，相当于预测2027财年市 盈率20倍;重申"买入"评级，理由是同店销售增长的持续改善可能支撑估值重评。 周大福9月底止2026财年上半财年净利润为25亿元，同比大致持平，符合该行预期;收入390亿元，同比 下降1%，较该行预期低3%;上半财年毛利率为30.5%，低于该行预期的31.3%，但被销售、管理及行政 费用比率(SG&A ratio)降至14%所部分抵消，并低于该行预期的15.3%。 该行指，鉴于10月至11月中旬销售趋势、利润率指引优于预期后，将周大福2026、2027财年净利润预测 分别上调6%及1%，至分别87亿及88亿元。美银证券认为，周大福管理层对同店销售增长指引略为保 守，认为指引有上行空间;又相信同店销售增长下滑的 ...

摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，周大福中期业绩符合预期。公司将毛利率指引由28.3至28.7%，上调至31 至32%，调整幅度高过该行预期。若计及较高的对冲损失，最新指引意味着2026财年净利润将按年增长 44至55%，至85至91亿港元，即下半财年按年增长75至90%。 该行指，虽然近期销售强劲，公司仍维持原有收入指引，管理层坦言对收入指引持谨慎态度，因仍在观 察增值税改革后的需求趋势，后续将相应更新指引。目前的需求趋势已好过管理层预期，公司对竞争格 局充满信心，认为税改将有利周大福等龙头品牌。 该行将2026财年每股盈利预测上调7%，净利润预测上调6%至87.5亿港元；2027至2028年每股盈利预测 则上调2%，因预期金价会大致维持于目前水平，加上宏观环境将逐步复苏；维持目标价19港元及"增 持"评级。 ...