[Table_Main] 公司研究|有色金属材料 证券研究报告 洛阳钼业(603993)公司点评报告 2024 年 09 月 02 日 [世界级 Table_Title铜] 钴项目达产放量，上半年业绩高速增长 ——洛阳钼业 2024 年半年度报告点评 [事件：公司 Table_Summary 8 月] 23 日发布 2024 年半年度报告，期内实现营业收入 1028.18 亿元，同比增长 18.56%；实现归母净利润 54.17 亿元，同比增长 670.43%。 点评： TFM 和 KFM 上半年保持快节奏生产，助力刚果（金）板块业绩高增 公司在刚果（金）运营两座世界级矿山 TFM 和 KFM，上半年保持快节奏生 产乃至超产，频创单月产量历史记录。2024 年上半年，刚果（金）板块实 现营业收入 243.68 亿元，同比增长 444.78%，毛利 123.16 亿元。TFM 项 目，目前主工艺全部打通，一季度顺利达产，二季度顺利达标，TFM 五条 生产线全面建成，形成 45 万吨铜、3.7 万吨钴的产能规模，成为世界第五 大铜矿山和第二大钴矿山。KFM 项目，作为世界罕有的高铜高钴矿，具备 15 万吨铜、5 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][6] Core Insights - The company achieved impressive performance in the first half of 2024, with operating revenue of 102.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.42 billion yuan, a significant increase of 670% [6] - The company operates world-class copper and cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with copper production doubling year-on-year to 314,000 tons and cobalt production increasing by 178% to 54,000 tons in the first half of 2024 [6] - The company has exceeded budget targets in its molybdenum and tungsten production, achieving operating revenue of 3.88 billion yuan despite challenges such as declining ore grades and price adjustments [6] - The niobium and phosphorus projects in Brazil have shown stable operations, with niobium production reaching a historical high and revenue of 3.11 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year [6][7] Financial Summary - The company is projected to have operating revenues of 186.27 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 214.77 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.3% [8][10] - Net profit is expected to grow from 8.25 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.55 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [8][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.38 yuan in 2023 to 0.72 yuan in 2026, indicating robust profitability [8][10] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18-20 times for 2024, suggesting a reasonable valuation range of 9.54 to 10.60 yuan per share [6][10] - The projected gross margin is expected to improve from 9.7% in 2023 to 14.1% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [8][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" with a 6-month target price of 10.2 CNY per share [3]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant growth in revenue and profit due to the successful ramp-up of its world-class mines and an increase in copper prices. In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1028.18 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.56%, and a net profit of 54.17 billion CNY, a remarkable increase of 670.43% [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 566.97 billion CNY, up 33.58% year-on-year, and a net profit of 33.46 billion CNY, up 766.68% year-on-year and 61.49% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company’s non-recurring net profit for Q2 2024 was 35.34 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2190.78% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 68.98% [1]. Production and Sales - The company’s copper and cobalt production in H1 2024 reached 313,800 tons and 54,000 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 100.74% and 178.22% [2]. - The sales figures for copper and cobalt in H1 2024 were 311,800 tons and 50,900 tons, showing year-on-year increases of 510.53% and 3441.73% [2]. Market Conditions - The average price of cathode copper in H1 2024 was 9,090.30 USD/ton, an increase of 4.45% year-on-year, while the average price of cobalt decreased by 20.44% to 12.22 USD/pound [2]. - The company’s copper segment reported a gross profit of 10.485 billion CNY, with a gross profit per ton of 33,600 CNY, while the cobalt segment reported a gross profit of 1.831 billion CNY, with a gross profit per ton of 36,000 CNY [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects to produce between 520,000 to 570,000 tons of copper and 60,000 to 70,000 tons of cobalt in 2024, achieving 58% and 83% of its annual production targets, respectively [2]. - The company is also advancing its Nzilo II hydropower project to ensure stable power supply for future production [2].

券 研 究 2024 年 08 月 28 日 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 铜钴产品销量大增，降本增效有成果 | | | | —洛阳钼业（603993.SH）公司事件点评报告 | | 买入(维持) | | 事件 | | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | 洛阳钼业发布 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of 54 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 670.4% [1] - The copper segment is the primary source of gross profit, contributing 119 billion yuan, which accounts for 63% of total gross profit [2] - The company expects copper production to exceed the annual report guidance, with a projected annual output of 62.8 million tons based on the first half results [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of 102.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, up 18.6% year-on-year, and 567 billion yuan in Q2, reflecting a 33.6% year-on-year increase [1] - The gross profit for the first half was 188.9 billion yuan, with a significant contribution from the copper segment [2] Production Capacity - The TFM project in the Democratic Republic of Congo has reached a production capacity of 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt, making it the fifth-largest copper mine globally [2] - The company’s copper production in the first half of 2024 was 314,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 101% [2] Future Outlook - The company has a five-year plan to double copper production to 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028 [2] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 119 billion, 156.3 billion, and 166.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 10, and 10 times [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][28]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue reaching 102.82 billion yuan, up 18.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders soaring by 670.4% to 5.42 billion yuan [6][10]. - The Congo copper and cobalt segment showed strong performance, with copper production increasing by 100.74% to 313,800 tons and cobalt production rising by 178% to 54,000 tons in the first half of 2024 [6][10]. - The company is entering a capacity release year, with plans to achieve annual copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons in the next five years [28][29]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: Revenue of 172.99 billion yuan, Net profit of 6.07 billion yuan - 2023A: Revenue of 186.27 billion yuan, Net profit of 8.25 billion yuan - 2024E: Revenue of 203.09 billion yuan, Net profit of 11.31 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 204.33 billion yuan, Net profit of 13.96 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 213.71 billion yuan, Net profit of 16.70 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is projected to increase from 0.38 yuan in 2024 to 0.77 yuan in 2026 [5][29]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - The P/E ratios are expected to decrease from 14.6 in 2024 to 9.9 in 2026, indicating a favorable valuation trend [5][29]. Segment Performance - **Congo Copper and Cobalt Segment**: - Revenue from this segment reached 12.32 billion yuan with a gross margin of 51% in the first half of 2024 [6][10]. - **Brazil Niobium and Phosphate Segment**: - The segment reported stable operations with niobium production increasing by 8.23% and phosphate production by 6.47% in the first half of 2024 [15][21]. - **IXM Trading Segment**: - The trading segment achieved revenue of 92.97 billion yuan, with a net profit of 664 million yuan, reflecting a 117% year-on-year increase [24][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) for both TFM and KFM with target prices of HKD 6.60 and RMB 8.70 respectively [1][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.42 billion in H1 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 670.4%. Revenue for the same period was RMB 102.82 billion, up 18.6% year-over-year [1]. - The copper production reached 310,000 tons and cobalt production was 54,000 tons in H1 2024, fulfilling 58% and 83% of the annual targets respectively. The company aims to achieve copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2026-2028 [2]. - The copper and cobalt segment contributed significantly to profitability, with a gross margin of 52% in H1 2024, up from 42% in the previous year, driven by a 4% increase in copper prices year-over-year and a 16% increase quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2024 [3]. Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 102.82 billion and a net profit of RMB 5.42 billion, with Q2 revenue at RMB 56.70 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 33.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 22.9% [1][2]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 10.93 billion, RMB 12.76 billion, and RMB 17.63 billion respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The company’s PE ratio for 2024 is estimated at 17.1X, compared to the average PE of comparable companies at 13.2X [1][6]. Production Capacity and Expansion - TFM's mixed ore project has successfully reached production capacity, with five production lines established, yielding an annual capacity of 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt, making it the fifth largest copper mine and second largest cobalt mine globally [2]. - KFM has established an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons of copper and 50,000 tons of cobalt, maintaining its position as the world's largest cobalt mine [2]. - The company is actively pursuing expansion projects, including the Nzilo II hydropower station cooperation agreement and ongoing exploration work for KFM Phase II [2].

公司事件点评 [Table_MainInfo] 业务完成度超指引均值，整体降本增效成果显著 [Table_Analysis] 有色金属——小金属 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 证券分析师 张珂 [Table_Picture] 最近半年股价相对走势 [Table_Report] 相关研究报告 《公司借资源禀赋发力，铜 钴双引擎带动增长——洛 阳钼业（603993）深度报告》 2024.3.29 ――洛阳钼业（603993）2024 年半年报点评 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2024 年 8 月 26 日 [Table_Summary] 事件： 公司发布 2024 年半年报，实现营业收入 1,028.18 亿元，同比增长 18.56%； 归母净利润 54.17 亿元，同比增长 670.43%；扣非后归母净利 56.25 亿元，同 比增长 2,457.25%。 点评： 上半年产品产销两旺，业务完成度超指引均值 2024 年 H1，公司位于刚果的 TFM 矿和 KFM 矿保持快节奏生产，同时铜和钴 的回收率大幅提升；国内三道庄难选矿石钨和上房沟钼的回收率 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年08月27日 证券分析师：刘孟峦 证券分析师：焦方冉 010-88005312 021-60933177 liumengluan@guosen.com.cn jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn S0980520040001 S0980522080003 收盘价 7.64 元 总市值/流通市值 165018/164254 百万元 52 周最高价/最低价 9.87/4.61 元 近 3 个月日均成交额 1186.92 百万元 | --- | --- | |----------|----------------| | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) | | 合理估值 | | | 市场走势 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 17 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved record performance in H1 2024, with revenue of 102.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%, and a net profit of 5.42 billion yuan, up 670.4% year-on-year [2][8]. - The significant profit growth is attributed to the increase in both volume and price of copper and cobalt products, with gross profit rising by 15.17 billion yuan [2][14]. - The company has exceeded production expectations for copper and cobalt, achieving 31.38 and 5.40 million tons respectively in H1 2024, which is 57.58% and 83.08% of the annual target [23][42]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 102.8 billion yuan, with mining contributing 31.44 billion yuan and trading 71.38 billion yuan, marking a 34% increase in revenue for Q2 compared to the previous quarter [2][8]. - The net profit for H1 2024 was 5.42 billion yuan, with Q2 net profit reaching 3.35 billion yuan, reflecting a 767% year-on-year increase [2][8]. Production and Sales - The copper and cobalt production in H1 2024 was significantly higher than expected, with copper production at 31.38 million tons (up 100.74% year-on-year) and cobalt at 5.40 million tons (up 178.22% year-on-year) [23][42]. - The company’s trading segment also performed well, with net profit increasing by 116.67% to 6.63 billion yuan [22][27]. Price Trends - The average price for copper in H1 2024 was 9,090 USD/ton, a 4.45% increase year-on-year, while cobalt prices fell by 20.44% to 12.22 USD/pound [19][20]. - The company’s gross margin improved significantly, particularly in the copper segment, which saw a gross margin of 52.4% [19][28]. Future Outlook - The company aims to increase copper production to 80-100 million tons and cobalt to 9-10 million tons by 2028, with a projected CAGR of 16.5% for copper and 11.3% for cobalt from 2023 to 2028 [42]. - The ongoing development of the TFM and KFM mines is expected to contribute significantly to future production increases [42].