Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) reported its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, highlighting stable growth and a loyal membership base, which has historically allowed it to navigate economic challenges better than competitors [1] Financial Performance - Shares of Costco fell 2.7% post-earnings release due to a top-line miss, despite year-over-year improvements in revenues and earnings driven by membership growth, resilient traffic, e-commerce gains, and margin expansion [2] - Comparable sales, excluding gasoline prices and foreign exchange impacts, rose 6.4%, with U.S. comparable sales increasing by 5.9%, and Canada and Other International markets seeing gains of 9% and 6.8%, respectively [2] - Membership fee income grew 14% year over year to $1,329 million, benefiting from strong renewal rates and a recent membership fee increase [7] Membership Growth - Costco ended the quarter with 81.4 million paid members, a 5.2% increase from the previous year, with executive memberships rising 9.1% to 39.7 million, accounting for 74.3% of worldwide sales [3] - The renewal rate remained strong at 92.2% in the U.S. and Canada, and 89.7% worldwide, reflecting member loyalty [5] Digital and Operational Expansion - Digitally enabled sales surged 20.5%, supported by a 24% increase in website traffic and a 48% rise in app engagement [9] - Management highlighted improvements in checkout productivity and AI-driven inventory systems, which enhanced in-stock levels to over 98% [9] - Costco plans to sustain over 30 net warehouse openings annually, balancing growth between U.S. and international markets [8] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Costco's sales figures are part of a competitive retail environment, with rivals like Ross Stores, Dollar General, and Target enhancing their offerings and supply-chain efficiencies [11] - Costco's stock is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 41.81, higher than the industry average of 30.15 and the S&P 500's 23.35 [14] Investment Outlook - Despite Costco's strong brand and membership base, its recent stock underperformance relative to the industry suggests caution, as high valuations may lead to pullbacks with minor setbacks [15] - For existing investors, holding the stock is advisable due to its long-term strength, while potential investors may consider waiting for a more attractive entry point [16]

Consumer Sentiment and Spending Trends - U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in over three years in early November, but there was a slight uptick in December [3] - Despite economic worries, nearly 203 million U.S. shoppers participated in the holiday shopping period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, marking the highest turnout in at least nine years [5] - Retail sales have shown resilience, with many retailers exceeding quarterly sales expectations, indicating steady consumer demand [6][7] Retail Performance and Consumer Behavior - Big-box retailers like Walmart and Costco reported strong sales, while discretionary retailers also exceeded expectations, suggesting a consistent consumer spending pattern [6][7] - Lower-income consumers have remained resilient, continuing to spend despite economic pressures, while higher-income consumers have supported retail sales through rising home values and stock market gains [8][9] - Retailers have noted that consumers are selective in their spending, often seeking deals and discounts, which has driven strong turnout during promotional sales [13][14] Economic Indicators and Retail Forecasts - Retail sales have consistently grown nearly or more than 4% year-over-year, surpassing earlier predictions of 2.7% to 3.7% growth [19] - Holiday hiring by retailers is expected to be the lowest in at least 15 years, reflecting caution in managing costs amid economic uncertainty [20] - Retailers are experiencing a divide between winners and losers, with those executing well capturing the dollars of selective shoppers [24] Price Dynamics and Consumer Spending - Some retail spending growth has been attributed to price hikes, as consumers are motivated to purchase before further price increases occur [14][15] - The disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual spending behavior has been noted, with higher-income households continuing to spend despite low sentiment [16][17] - Retailers have been able to offer deals due to excess inventory purchased earlier in the year, which may lead to a strong start to the holiday season but a weaker end [30] Conclusion on Consumer Outlook - The current economic environment has led consumers to make trade-offs, seeking value while still engaging in holiday spending [27][28] - The overall sentiment suggests a paradox where consumers feel uncertain yet continue to spend, driven by the emotional significance of the holiday season [29][31]

Roth Capital将开市客的目标价从906美元下调至769美元，评级从"中性"下调至"卖出"。(格隆汇) ...

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale reported strong fiscal Q1 earnings, with revenue increasing by 8% to $67.31 billion and adjusted EPS rising by 11% to $4.50, surpassing analyst expectations [5] - Despite strong sales momentum, Costco's stock has declined nearly 5% year-to-date and is about 11% lower over the past year [1] Sales Performance - E-commerce sales surged by 20.5%, with traffic increasing by 24% and average order value up by 13% [2] - Same-store sales grew by 6.4% when adjusted for gasoline prices and foreign currency, with U.S. same-store sales rising by 5.9% and Canadian comparable-store sales climbing by 9% [6] - Membership-fee revenue increased by 14% year-over-year to $1.33 billion, supported by a price hike in September 2024 [8] Membership Dynamics - Paid memberships rose by 5.2% to 81.4 million households, with higher-cost executive memberships increasing by 9.1% to 39.7 million [8] - Membership renewal rates were 92.2% in North America and 89.7% worldwide, although younger consumers showed lower renewal rates [9] Expansion and Future Outlook - Costco opened eight new locations in the quarter, bringing the total to 921 stores, but reduced its new store outlook to 28 for the fiscal year due to delays [10] - The stock's forward P/E ratio is currently at 43.5, which is below its earlier valuation this year but still higher than historical averages [12] - The company is expected to remain range-bound in stock performance over the next year as it works to align its valuation with its strong operational performance [14]

Core Insights - Costco and Dollar Tree are both performing well in a challenging economy, but Costco has a stronger track record of success [1] - Consumers are increasingly seeking bargains, with Dollar Tree attracting higher-income shoppers [1][6] - Costco operates on a membership model, which contributes significantly to its operating income and allows for lower product margins [1][11] Business Models - Costco is a club store requiring a yearly membership fee, which constitutes about half of its operating income [1] - Dollar Tree operates as a traditional retailer, relying on low price points to attract customers [3] - Dollar Tree faces higher risks of losing customers to other retail concepts compared to Costco [3] Recent Performance - Costco reported a 6.4% increase in same-store sales and a 3.1% increase in traffic for its fiscal second-quarter 2026 [4] - Dollar Tree's same-store sales rose by 4.2% in its third quarter of 2025, with an influx of higher-income shoppers [4][6] Customer Demographics - Dollar Tree gained approximately three million new households, with 60% earning over $100,000, indicating a shift from more premium retailers like Target [6] - Costco's model encourages long-term customer loyalty due to its curated selection of high-quality products [7] Economic Outlook - If the economy improves, Costco is likely to continue thriving, while Dollar Tree may lose its wealthier customers [8] - Dollar Tree's strategy to upgrade its product assortment could shift its low-price appeal [7] Valuation Metrics - Costco's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 47, while Dollar Tree's is 24.5, indicating that both stocks are considered expensive relative to their historical averages [11] - Costco's five-year average P/E is approximately 44, and Dollar Tree's is about 21 [11] Investment Considerations - Costco's consistent business model and strong financial results make it appealing to investors, despite its high valuation [14] - Dollar Tree's recent attempts to expand its product range follow a problematic acquisition, which may affect its long-term viability [13]

AND YOUR NEXT GUEST SAYS MORE DOWNSIDE MAY BE COMING. HE DOWNGRADED COSTCO TO A CELL FROM A NEUTRAL. JOINING US NOW IS BILL KIRK COVERS RETAIL AT ROTH CAPITAL PARTNERS.BILL THE CALL IS GETTING A LOT OF ATTENTION. SO WE APPRECIATE YOU COMING ON POWER LUNCH. WHAT'S THE PRIMARY THESIS BEHIND THAT SELL RATING.>> YEAH, THANKS FOR HAVING ME. THE PRIMARY THESIS IS WHEN YOU UNPACK THE QUARTER, THERE'S A LOT OF KEY METRICS THAT ARE GOING THE INCORRECT WAY. IF YOU TAKE A LOOK AT TRAFFIC, WHETHER IT'S IN THE UNITED ST ...

Core Thesis - The primary thesis behind the downgrade of Costco's stock rating is the deceleration in key metrics such as traffic and renewal rates, alongside a significant drop in the growth of paid members [1][2][3] Traffic and Membership Trends - Traffic has been decelerating both in the United States and globally, with a continued decline observed over the past few quarters [2] - Renewal rates have also been fading for several consecutive quarters, indicating a potential issue with member retention [2] - The growth of paid members has significantly slowed, with only 400,000 new paid members added quarter over quarter, compared to a historical average of one million [2][3] Competitive Landscape - The opening of new Costco clubs is leading to increased competition and potential cannibalization of existing stores, as newer locations may not perform as well as older ones [5] - Competitors such as Walmart and BJ's Wholesale are also expanding their presence, which adds pressure on Costco's market share [6][7] - The wholesale segment is becoming more commoditized, making it challenging for Costco to maintain its unique value proposition [7] Consumer Behavior and Economic Impact - Costco may benefit from economic downturns as consumers seek value, but it also caters to high-income consumers who shop for discretionary items [8][9] - The company has a diversified appeal, attracting both value-seeking customers and those looking for unique products, which may help mitigate the impact of economic cycles [9]

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale has demonstrated significant long-term growth potential, with a $1,000 investment in 1995 now valued at $157,000, highlighting the benefits of holding quality stocks for compounding returns [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - The company's expansion in North America has been a major driver of returns, but there is still considerable potential for international growth [2][4]. - By the end of the year, stores in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico are expected to represent 85% of Costco's store base, indicating a strong regional presence [4]. - In fiscal 2025, international comparable sales, excluding gasoline, grew by 8.2% year over year, outpacing the U.S. growth of 7.3% [6]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Costco's discount warehouse model is resonating globally, with international sales growth slightly exceeding that of the U.S. market, at 6.8% compared to 5.9% [6]. - The company has recently opened its third location in France, showcasing its commitment to international expansion while maintaining low capital investment through innovative real estate strategies [4]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - As of the latest data, Costco's market capitalization stands at $393 billion, with a current stock price of $857.85 [5]. - The gross margin is reported at 12.88%, and the dividend yield is 0.57%, indicating a stable financial position [6].

Group 1 - Slower membership trends present a risk to the big-box retailer [1] - Competition from Walmart is a significant challenge for the company [1] - Caution around starting a family affects consumer spending behavior [1]

Group 1: Las Vegas Sands - Las Vegas Sands has been upgraded to a buy from neutral by Goldman Sachs, with a target price raised from 64 to 80 [1] - The company is noted for its strong balance sheet and consistent buyback strategy, along with significant exposure to Macau and Singapore [1] Group 2: Wynn Resorts - Wynn Resorts has seen a year-to-date stock increase of 42%, outperforming Las Vegas Sands, which is up 29% [2] - The discussion highlights the better balance sheet of Las Vegas Sands compared to Wynn [2] Group 3: Costco - Costco has been downgraded to sell from neutral by Roth, with a target price reduced from 900 to 769 [3] - The stock has experienced a 12% decline over the past year, indicating a fundamental breakdown in performance [4] - Costco has struggled to capture traffic compared to Walmart and faces challenges related to tariffs and litigation [4] - The company has seen a decrease in renewal rates and has not effectively targeted digital consumers [8] - The valuation of Costco is considered excessive for a retail company, contrasting with Walmart's favorable valuation [9] Group 4: Train Technologies - Train Technologies has been upgraded to overweight with a price target of 500 by Key Bank, seen as a rare entry point for investors [10] - The company is recognized as one of the highest quality operators in its sector, particularly in HVAC [10] - There is uncertainty regarding the degree of market penetration Train Technologies will achieve in data centers [11]