此前特朗普曾罕见承认关税政策导致美国消费者购买商品时的花费增加，尽管他坚称政策总体有益。路透社报道指出，特朗普承认"由于他的关税政策，美 国消费者正在承受更高的商品价格"。这种政策立场的反复折射出通胀压力对行政决策的实质性约束。 科技愿景与商业落地的温差 在传统制造业面临关税与成本双重挤压之际，政府试图通过押注新兴科技寻找新的增长叙事。特朗普政府正计划加速推动机器人产业发展，商务部长霍华德 ·卢特尼克近期多次会见机器人行业的公司高管。知情人士透露，政府正考虑在明年发布一项关于机器人的行政命令，试图在AI等关键领域构建竞争优势。 中小企业在当前的经济环境下承受了主要的冲击，裁员潮在这一领域尤为集中。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少了12万个岗位，其中20至49人规模的企 业裁员人数达到7.4万人。相比之下，大型企业仍保持了净增态势，劳动力市场的分化格局愈发显著。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson指出，"雇主正在应 对谨慎的消费者和不确定的宏观经济环境，招聘活动近期波动明显"。 关税承诺与通胀现实的博弈 然而科技巨头在人工智能商业化落地方面正遭遇现实阻力，市场预期开始出现修正。微软内部多个业务部门 ...

Group 1 - Investors are currently analyzing retailers to identify potential beneficiaries of seasonal consumer spending trends [1] Group 2 - The focus is on U.S. and European equities, particularly undervalued growth stocks and high-quality dividend growers [2] - Sustained profitability, characterized by strong margins, stable and expanding free cash flow, and high returns on invested capital, is emphasized as a more reliable driver of returns than valuation alone [2] - The investment strategy aims to balance asset management to ensure financial freedom while maintaining the ability to work in fulfilling environments [2]

Core Viewpoint - Costco has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. federal government, claiming that the imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act is illegal and is seeking a full refund of the tariffs paid [1][3]. Group 1: Company Actions - Costco's Chief Financial Officer, Gary Millerchip, revealed that approximately one-third of the products sold in the U.S. are imported, with about two-thirds being non-food items, and around 8% of total sales coming from products imported from China [3]. - Prior to Costco's lawsuit, several companies, including Kawasaki and Bumble Bee Foods, had already initiated similar legal actions against the government, indicating a growing trend among businesses to challenge tariffs [3][4]. - The lawsuit by Costco is particularly notable as it marks the first time a major corporation has publicly taken such action, contrasting with smaller companies that have previously filed lawsuits [4][5]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - In response to tariff impacts, Costco has adjusted its pricing strategies, with some non-essential imported items, like flowers, experiencing price increases, while essential items, such as fresh fruits, have not seen price hikes [5]. - Kawasaki's CEO acknowledged that tariffs might necessitate a price increase of approximately 17% on high-end motorcycles sold in the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Legal Context - The U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing the legality of the federal government's authority to impose tariffs on multiple goods, with both liberal and conservative justices questioning the president's power to levy tariffs without congressional approval [6]. - Even if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, companies like Costco and Kawasaki have expressed that this may not guarantee the return of previously paid tariffs, necessitating legal action against the government [6]. Group 4: Government's Position - The U.S. government maintains that tariffs are essential for addressing long-term economic and national security challenges, despite the negative impact on small businesses [7]. - The Supreme Court has not yet announced when it will rule on the legality of the tariffs, but if deemed illegal, the government could face significant financial repercussions [7][8].

Costco Wholesale (NasdaqGS:COST) December 2025 Update Summary Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Costco Wholesale, a leading retail company known for its membership-based warehouse club model Core Points and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: - Net sales for November reached $23.64 billion, marking an increase of 8.1% from $21.87 billion in the same month last year [2] - Comparable sales for the month were reported as follows: - US: 6.0% - Canada: 6.9% - Other international: 11.4% - Total company: 6.9% - Digitally enabled sales: 16.6% [2] - **Comparable Sales Excluding Gas and FX**: - Total company comparable sales, excluding gas sales and foreign exchange impacts, were 7.0% [3] - Comparable sales excluding gasoline price impacts were: - US: 5.8% - Canada: 8.3% - Other international: 8.0% - Total company: 6.4% - Digitally enabled: 16.3% [2] - **Traffic and Transaction Trends**: - Comp traffic increased by 3.8% worldwide and 3.0% in the US [3] - Average transaction value increased by 3.0%, with a 2.5% increase when excluding gas inflation and foreign exchange impacts [3] - **Regional Performance**: - Strongest comparable sales in the US were observed in the Northeast, Midwest, and Southeast regions [4] - Internationally, Australia, Taiwan, and the UK showed the strongest results [4] - **Merchandising Highlights**: - Foods and sundries experienced positive mid to high single-digit growth, with strong performance in candy, food, and sundries [4] - Fresh foods also saw mid to high single-digit growth, particularly in meat and bakery departments [4] - Non-foods grew in the mid-single digits, with jewelry, tires, and health and beauty performing well [4] - Ancillary business sales increased by high single digits, with pharmacy, food court, and optical being top performers [4] - **Gas Sales**: - Gas sales increased in the low to mid-single digits, driven by an increase in gallons sold year over year [5] Additional Important Information - The call included forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ from those projected [1] - The next reporting period will cover five weeks from December 1, 2025, to January 4, 2026 [5]

Core Insights - 2025 has been a challenging year for consumer staples in retail, with Target experiencing a YTD loss of over 34%, while Walmart has gained nearly 25% due to its adaptability to tariffs and consumer sentiment shifts [3] - Costco Wholesale has had a modest YTD gain of 1.34%, facing corrections of more than 17%, 12%, and 8% throughout the year [4] - Looking ahead to 2026, investors are optimistic about Costco's potential for recovery, driven by loyal membership, strong fundamentals, and positive analyst forecasts [5][6] Company Performance - Costco has faced headwinds such as tariffs and negative consumer sentiment, resulting in a YTD gain of just 1.34%, but has outperformed earnings expectations in nine of the last ten quarters [6] - The company is currently involved in litigation against the Trump administration regarding "illegal" import taxes, which underscores the challenges it has navigated [7] Strategic Initiatives - A significant response to market challenges has been the expansion of Costco's private label brand, Kirkland Signature, which has seen increased sales penetration and aims to provide high-quality alternatives to tariff-impacted goods [8] - Kirkland Signature products typically offer members a 15% to 20% value advantage compared to national brand alternatives, enhancing customer value amidst inflationary pressures [8]

Core Insights - Over the past decade, Walmart and Costco stocks have surged more than 460%, demonstrating their resilience in challenging economic conditions [1] - Both companies have more than doubled in value over the past five years, but this has made them more expensive investments [2] Company Performance - Costco has experienced solid growth, benefiting significantly during periods of strong consumer spending, but its growth rate has recently fallen to single digits, aligning more closely with Walmart's growth [2] - Walmart is planning to expand domestically by opening or expanding up to 150 stores in the U.S. over the next five years and has completed the acquisition of TV-maker Vizio, which may enhance its advertising business [5] Market Valuation - Walmart's current market cap is $896 billion, with a gross margin of 25.87% and a dividend yield of 0.81% [6][7] - Costco's market cap stands at $409 billion, with a gross margin of 12.84% and a dividend yield of 0.55% [10][11] - Historically, Costco has traded at a higher price-to-earnings multiple than Walmart, and this gap has widened recently, raising questions about the justification for its premium valuation [9] Investment Considerations - Despite Costco's strong brand and growth opportunities, its high valuation at around 50 times earnings may pose risks for investors, especially with its growth rate now in single digits [11][13] - Walmart, while not cheap, offers a more reasonable valuation compared to Costco, providing a better margin of safety for investors [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing the constitutionality of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with various companies filing lawsuits to seek refunds for the tariffs paid if the court rules them unconstitutional [2][4][6]. Group 1: Lawsuits Filed - At least nine Japanese companies and two U.S. companies have filed lawsuits in the U.S. International Trade Court in New York, which specializes in trade cases [4]. - Companies such as Costco Wholesale, Sumitomo Chemical, Ricoh, and Toyota Tsusho are among those suing the U.S. government for the return of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration [2]. Group 2: Legal Basis and Implications - The Trump administration imposed tariffs based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) without Congressional approval, which has been challenged as exceeding presidential authority [6]. - Lower federal courts have ruled that the imposition of tariffs may exceed presidential powers, leading to a constitutional ruling that could have broad economic and diplomatic implications if the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration [6]. Group 3: Trends in Litigation - The trend of companies suing the Trump administration is expanding, with small businesses in Washington D.C. also filing collective lawsuits against the tariffs [6].

Tariffs and Trade - Costco is suing the Trump administration for a full refund of tariffs paid this year and to block future duties, highlighting the financial burden on American businesses and consumers [1][2] - The lawsuit is a political act, indicating a growing willingness of companies to challenge the administration's policies [9][10] - Tariffs have raised the cost of goods across the economy, representing an "anti-affordability agenda" [15] Consumer Spending and Affordability - Despite affordability concerns, Black Friday sales were strong, and the US economy is expected to grow next year [11][12] - While incomes have generally kept pace with rising costs, the perceived lack of significant financial improvement is causing frustration among consumers [13] Investment and Wealth Disparity - Michael Dell and his wife pledged over $6 billion to fund "Trump accounts" for 25 million US children, aiming to get people invested in American growth [16] - There's a significant gap between how the wealthy invest (hedge funds, private equity) and how average Americans invest (publicly listed companies, tracker funds) [18] - Only 50% of Americans have access to stock investments through 401k plans, and only 10% own stocks outright [18] Potential Tariff Refund Process - Costco's lawsuit highlights the process of tariff liquidation, where companies initially pay tariffs, and the CPB later confirms or adjusts the amount owed [8] - Costco is facing a time limit for some liquidations, potentially hindering its ability to recover the tariff money [9]

Legal & Financial Dispute - Costco is suing the Trump administration for a full refund of tariffs paid on imported goods under Trump's tariff plan [1] - The lawsuit challenges the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [2][3] - The White House estimates that upholding President Trump's tariffs has brought in nearly $90 billion through September [4] - Costco seeks millions in refunds, arguing IEEPA doesn't authorize the president to set tariffs [3] Potential Impact & Industry Response - A Supreme Court ruling against the administration could open the door for other businesses to sue for tariff refunds [5] - Revlon, Kawasaki, and Bumblebee have filed similar suits [5] - Experts suggest that success for other companies may be difficult, as Costco's claim is specific to its business model [5][6] Costco's Business Strategy & Stance - Costco claims it has not raised prices due to tariffs, absorbing the costs to avoid passing them on to customers [6] - Costco has maintained its DEI policies despite pressure from the White House, unlike some other large US businesses [6][7] - Costco has a large customer base of 145 million worldwide, with about half in the United States, giving it significant consumer power [7] Alternative Tariff Implementation - There are at least six other ways President Trump could impose tariffs, involving Congress, the International Trade Commission, or the US Trade Representative [9] - The current tariffs were implemented via executive order by President Trump [10]

Core Insights - The article compares two consumer staples ETFs: State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK), highlighting their differences in cost, portfolio composition, and sector exposure [1][2]. Cost and Size - XLP has a lower expense ratio of 0.08% compared to IYK's 0.38%, making it more cost-effective for investors [3][4]. - XLP has a larger Assets Under Management (AUM) of $15.5 billion, while IYK has an AUM of $1.3 billion [3]. - The one-year return for XLP is -5.4%, while IYK's is -3.9%, indicating IYK has outperformed XLP in the short term [3]. Performance and Risk Comparison - Over five years, XLP has a maximum drawdown of -17.8%, while IYK's is -16.3%, suggesting IYK has slightly better risk management [5]. - The growth of $1,000 invested over five years is $1,167 for XLP and $1,239 for IYK, indicating IYK has provided better returns [5]. Portfolio Composition - IYK includes 12% in healthcare and 2% in basic materials, with a total of 55 holdings, while XLP is strictly focused on consumer staples with 100% allocation and 37 holdings [6][7]. - Top holdings for IYK include Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, and Philip Morris International, while XLP's largest positions are Walmart, Costco, and Procter & Gamble [6][7]. Investment Considerations - The decision between XLP and IYK may hinge on the trade-off between fees and performance, with XLP being more affordable but IYK potentially offering broader exposure [8][9]. - Investors may prefer IYK if they seek exposure to healthcare and basic materials, despite its higher fees [10][11].