Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Deckers (DECK) will report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues in its upcoming earnings report for the quarter ended September 2024, with results expected on October 24 [1] Earnings Expectations - Deckers is projected to post quarterly earnings of $1.22 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +7% [2] - Revenues are expected to reach $1.2 billion, representing a 9.6% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.01% higher over the last 30 days, indicating a slight bullish sentiment among analysts [3] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows that the Most Accurate Estimate for Deckers is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +1.12%, suggesting a likely earnings beat [4][6] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a neutral outlook [6] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Deckers exceeded expectations by posting earnings of $0.75 per share against an expected $0.60, achieving a surprise of +25% [7] - Over the past four quarters, Deckers has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [7] Conclusion - While an earnings beat is anticipated, other factors may also influence stock movement, making it essential to consider the Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank before the earnings release [8]

Company Performance - Deckers (DECK) ended the recent trading session at $161.85, showing a +0.7% change from the previous day's closing price, outperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.76% [1] - Over the past month, Deckers' shares gained 2.85%, which is below the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 3.42% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.31% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Deckers is set to release its earnings on October 24, 2024, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of $1.22, indicating a 7.02% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $1.2 billion, reflecting a 9.55% rise from the equivalent quarter last year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $5.22 per share and revenue of $4.79 billion, representing changes of +7.41% and +11.75% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent shifts in analyst projections for Deckers should be monitored, as positive estimate revisions are seen as a good sign for the company's business outlook [3] Valuation Metrics - Deckers is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 30.78, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 15.94 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.85, higher than the Retail-Apparel and Shoes industry's average PEG ratio of 1.94 [6] Industry Ranking - The Retail-Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, holding a Zacks Industry Rank of 86, placing it in the top 35% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Long-term shareholders of Decker Brands have seen significant returns, with the stock posting a total return of 1,000% over the last 10 years, while Nike's stock is up only about 100% [2][7] Company Performance - Decker Brands reported a revenue growth of 22% year over year to $825 million in the last quarter, driven primarily by its Hoka brand, which saw a 29% increase in revenue to $545 million [4] - In contrast, Nike experienced a 10% decline in revenue year over year, generating over $11 billion in sales last quarter [4] - Decker Brands has an operating margin of 22.3%, significantly higher than Nike's 11.8%, indicating better profitability [5] Competitive Landscape - Decker Brands has successfully captured market share in the running shoe segment, directly competing with Nike through its Hoka brand, which appeals to environmentally conscious consumers [3] - The company has a strong track record of acquiring and growing multiple footwear brands, including Ugg, Teva, and Hoka, all of which have expanded significantly since their acquisition [6][7] Market Valuation - Decker Brands currently has a market capitalization of $24.6 billion and trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.4, which is considered high compared to the S&P 500's P/E of 30 [8] - Despite its growth, the high valuation may deter potential investors, as the sustainability of sales growth for its brands is uncertain [9]

Group 1: Company Overview - Deckers Outdoor owns several popular shoe brands, including Ugg, Hoka, Teva, and Sanuk, providing broad exposure to the shoe market [4] - The company sells shoes through wholesale partners and direct-to-consumer channels, with 43% of sales coming from direct channels in fiscal 2024 [5][6] - Deckers operates less than 200 retail locations worldwide, indicating a strong focus on e-commerce [5] Group 2: Market Position and Performance - Deckers has gained market share due to competitors like Nike over-relying on e-commerce, which has allowed Deckers to benefit from this misstep [7] - The shoe industry is considered somewhat recession-proof, as shoes are universally needed and regularly replaced, ensuring a baseline level of demand [8] - Revenue for Deckers has been increasing significantly, leading to record-high gross and net margins [9] Group 3: Future Earnings and Valuation - There are concerns about whether Deckers' current profit margins are sustainable or if they are experiencing a temporary boost from recent revenue growth [10] - Management expects gross margin to decrease from nearly 56% in fiscal 2024 to 54% in the current year, indicating potential margin contraction [11][12] - The stock is currently trading at 31 times earnings, which is near the highest valuation level seen in the last five years, raising concerns about its attractiveness as an investment [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor has seen a significant increase in its stock price, up 95% this year, driven by the success of its HOKA brand and strong earnings growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, Deckers Outdoor reported a revenue increase of 22%, with HOKA brand sales growing by 30% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the same period reached $4.52, an 88% increase, attributed to a higher gross margin from premium HOKA pricing [6]. - For the full fiscal year, Deckers expects net sales to reach $4.7 billion, a 10% increase from the previous year, with EPS growth projected between 2% and 5% [7]. Brand Portfolio and Growth Drivers - Deckers owns several brands, including the iconic UGG and the smaller Teva, with HOKA being the most significant growth driver since its acquisition in 2012 for $1.1 million [3][4]. - HOKA is projected to generate over $2 billion in sales this year, contributing to a 584% stock return over the past five years [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Deckers is performing well compared to competitors like Nike and Lululemon, which are experiencing sluggish demand, allowing Deckers to capture market share [9]. - The company plans to expand internationally and enter new product categories, including apparel, to leverage brand momentum [10]. Financial Health - Deckers has a strong balance sheet with $1.4 billion in cash and no financial debt, and it has repurchased $152 million in shares in Q1 [8]. - The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 30, which is a premium compared to peers like Nike and Lululemon, but justified by the company's financial strength [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to gradually shift from a footwear focus to a broader lifestyle portfolio, which could positively impact earnings [11]. - Overall, the stock is viewed as a strong investment opportunity, with expectations for continued growth as long as macroeconomic conditions remain favorable [14].

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corp has demonstrated strong financial performance, with shares priced at $162.53, reflecting a daily gain of 2.33% and a three-month change of 2.38, indicating potential for future growth [1][3] Financial Performance - The company has a market capitalization of $24.78 billion and annual sales of $4.44 billion, with an operating margin of 22.3% [3] - Deckers Outdoor Corp's revenue breakdown includes $1.9 billion (43.3%) from direct-to-consumer sales, $1.1 billion (26.3%) from HOKA brand wholesale, and $1.1 billion (26.0%) from UGG brand wholesale [5] - The company reported a gross profit of $2.4 billion, representing 55.6% of total revenue [5] Profitability and Growth Metrics - Deckers Outdoor Corp has shown an impressive interest coverage ratio of 382.08, an Alman Z-Score of 15.6, and a low debt-to-revenue ratio of 0.06, indicating strong financial health [5] - The company's operating margin and gross margin have both shown a consistent upward trend over the past five years, reflecting efficiency in converting revenue into profit [5] GF Score - Deckers Outdoor Corp has a GF Score of 92 out of 100, indicating a strong potential for outperformance based on historical data correlating with long-term stock performance [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers' shares declined by 5.19% following a downgrade from 'buy' to 'neutral' due to concerns over limited upside potential after recent stock gains [1] Market Trends - Google Trends data indicates a slowdown in consumer interest for Deckers' key brands, Hoka and UGG, during the back-to-school season [2] - Competition from brands like Asics and Brooks is regaining market share in the running shoe segment [2] Sales Performance - Despite competitive pressures, Hoka reported strong sales growth, with fiscal 2023 sales increasing by 59% to $1.41 billion, and a further 28% increase is expected in fiscal 2024 [3] - The first fiscal quarter saw a sales growth of 30%, reaching $545 million, indicating potential stability amidst market challenges [3] Valuation Metrics - Deckers has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30.22, consistent with industry norms, and is trading near its 10-year high with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 11.63, suggesting limited upside without significant growth catalysts [4] Financial Health - Deckers exhibits strong financial health with an Altman Z-score of 16.19, indicating low bankruptcy risk, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8, reflecting a stable financial status [5] - The company has a comfortable interest coverage ratio, ensuring it can meet debt obligations, and its operating margin is expanding, indicating improved profitability [6] Valuation Concerns - According to GF Value, Deckers is considered significantly overvalued with a GF value estimate of $107.4 compared to its current price of $158.15, prompting investors to consider this overvaluation against the company's growth prospects and financial robustness [7]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers' stock has been downgraded by Seaport Research from buy to neutral, indicating reduced upside potential due to moderating momentum for its brands Hoka and UGG [2] Group 1: Analyst Downgrade - Seaport Research lowered Deckers' rating, citing less upside potential after recent gains [2] - The downgrade was influenced by a decrease in interest for Hoka and UGG during the back-to-school season, as indicated by Google Trends data [2] - Other running shoe brands, such as Asics and Brooks, are regaining market share, further impacting Deckers' outlook [2] Group 2: Sales Performance - Hoka sales increased by 59% to $1.41 billion in fiscal 2023 and by 28% in fiscal 2024 [3] - In the fiscal first quarter, Hoka's growth rate improved to 30%, amounting to $545 million, suggesting potential stability [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Nike is regaining momentum in the running category, which may affect Hoka's market position [4] - Other brands are likely responding to Hoka's significant growth in recent years, indicating increased competition [4] Group 4: Valuation and Future Outlook - Deckers' stock is considered reasonably valued with a price-to-earnings ratio of 30 [5] - The sustainability of Hoka's strong performance is crucial for Deckers' success moving forward [5] - It remains uncertain if the data points referenced by Seaport are significant enough to alter the current momentum [5]

Group 1: Market Performance - Shares of Deckers rose by 6.39% to $166.81, part of a broader increase in footwear stocks due to favorable macroeconomic news [1] - The job market added 254,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping from 4.2% to 4.1%, and a 4% wage increase, indicating robust economic conditions [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Deckers reported a 22% increase in revenue to $825.3 million in the second quarter, with Hoka's revenue climbing 30% to $545.2 million [3] - Deckers has a market capitalization of $25.43 billion and a P/E ratio of 31.88, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 indicating strong financial strength [4] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The operating margin for Deckers is currently at 22.3%, reflecting profitability, supported by a robust Altman Z-score of 15.45, suggesting financial stability [4] - Year-to-date, Deckers has seen a 49.73% increase and a 95.55% rise over the past 52 weeks, although it is deemed "Significantly Overvalued" based on its GF Value of $107.29 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The footwear stocks, particularly Deckers, experienced a significant rise due to positive macroeconomic news, including a strong jobs report and the resolution of a dockworkers' strike, which is expected to benefit the industry ahead of the holiday season [2][5]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations of 150,000, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%. Wages increased by 4%, outpacing inflation [4]. - The positive job report indicates strengthening consumer spending, which is beneficial for the footwear sector [5]. Company Performance - Deckers' stock rose by 6.4%, reflecting investor confidence despite the absence of company-specific news [3]. - In Q2, Deckers reported a 22% increase in revenue to $825.3 million, with earnings per share nearly doubling. The Hoka brand was particularly successful, with revenue up 30% to $545.2 million [6]. - Deckers recently executed a 6-for-1 stock split, indicating strong company performance and execution [6]. Market Context - The end of the dockworkers' strike is expected to positively impact Deckers and its competitors, particularly as the holiday season approaches [5]. - The consumer discretionary sector saw a rise of 1.2%, outperforming the overall market, indicating a favorable environment for companies like Deckers [5]. - While Deckers is currently performing well, the company remains sensitive to overall economic demand and global supply chain dynamics [6].