Core Insights - The article discusses the author's extensive experience in value investing and the analysis of listed companies in the ASEAN and US regions [1] Group 1: Author's Background - The author has two decades of investing experience and has served as a Board member of a Malaysia listed company for several decades [1] - The author is a self-taught value investor and has published a value investing book titled "Do you really want to master value investing?" available on Amazon [1] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The blog focuses on value investing through case studies, analyzing and valuing companies [1] - The author expresses personal opinions and insights without any compensation from the companies mentioned [1]

贝莱德Q1持仓：仍偏爱科技巨头 重仓苹果、微软、英伟达 金十数据5月16日讯，贝莱德13F报告显示，一季度持仓总市值为4.76万亿美元，环比下降3.6%。前十大 重仓股中，大型科技公司仍占多数。苹果仍位列第一，持仓占比为5.32%。其次是微软、英伟达、亚马 逊和Meta。从持仓比例变化来看，前五大买入标的为SPDR标普500ET、伯克希尔哈撒韦-B、Visa、艾 伯维、礼来。前五大卖出标的包括迈威尔科技、Adobe、The Trade Desk、Deckers Outdoor、伊顿。 订阅13F持仓变动 +订阅 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Deckers despite higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Company Summary - Deckers is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.56 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 32.5%, while revenues are projected to be $985.64 million, an increase of 2.7% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 1.86% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Deckers is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +14.90%, although the stock carries a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [10][11]. Earnings Surprise History - Deckers has a history of beating consensus EPS estimates, having done so in the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +15.38% in the last reported quarter [12][13]. Industry Context - Urban Outfitters, another player in the Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, is expected to post earnings of $0.81 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 17.4%, with revenues projected at $1.29 billion, up 7.1% from the previous year [17]. - Urban Outfitters has a positive Earnings ESP of 1.03% and a Zacks Rank of 3, suggesting a likely earnings beat, having consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the past four quarters [18].

The recommendations of Wall Street analysts are often relied on by investors when deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock. Media reports about these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts changing their ratings often affect a stock's price. Do they really matter, though?Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about Deckers (DECK) .Deckers currently has an average brokerage recomm ...

Core Insights - The sports footwear and apparel industry demonstrates resilience amid a sluggish global economic recovery and differentiated consumer demand, outperforming other sectors [1][2] - The analysis includes 19 brands/groups, primarily publicly listed companies, with revenue data for the 2024 calendar year, adjusted for fiscal year discrepancies and currency fluctuations [1][2] Global Market Overview - Total global revenue for the 18 brands/groups in 2024 is approximately $183.61 billion, reflecting a 3.78% increase from 2023 [8] - Nike and Adidas remain the dominant players, while Lululemon has surged to third place, surpassing Puma and VF Corporation [6][7] - The industry structure remains stable, with a leading tier of Nike and Adidas, followed by a growing middle tier including Decathlon, Anta, VF, and Lululemon [7][8] Chinese Market Insights - The total revenue for the Chinese market is estimated at around $37 billion for 2024, with an 8.8% year-over-year growth, outpacing global growth [14] - Anta Group leads the Chinese market, with significant contributions from its multi-brand strategy, while Nike retains the top position for single-brand revenue [14][15] - The competitive landscape in China features intense rivalry among brands like Anta, Li Ning, Adidas, and FILA, with Puma also showing growth [14][15] Growth Drivers - Running remains the highest growth segment in the sports footwear and apparel industry, with brands like HOKA and On experiencing significant revenue increases [15][16] - Outdoor brands, particularly those appealing to the middle class, are also thriving, driven by a shift in consumer identity and preferences [16] Future Considerations - The industry faces challenges related to brand positioning in either stock or incremental competition, necessitating strategic decisions on growth potential and market dynamics [17] - Established brands are undergoing transformations while new entrants must navigate consumer expectations and market integration [17]

Core Insights - The sports footwear and apparel industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with the growth rate declining from 20% to approximately 10%, making deep engagement with existing users crucial for success [1][3] - Brands are seeking differentiated strategies to break the industry stagnation, with HOKA focusing on "experience economy" to replace traditional retail models [1][2] Industry Trends - The Chinese outdoor market is undergoing unprecedented growth, with projections indicating that the sports apparel market will exceed 600 billion yuan by 2025, maintaining a growth rate of over 10% year-on-year [2] - The rise of experience economy and deepening community value are two significant trends in the sports footwear and apparel sector, as consumers shift from functional needs to emotional recognition [3] Company Strategies - HOKA has opened its first global brand experience center in Shanghai, featuring immersive spaces and community culture areas, aiming to transform retail into a cultural "utopia" [2][3] - HOKA's sales performance has been impressive, with net sales growth of 27.9% in the fiscal year 2024, reaching approximately 1.81 billion dollars [4][5] Market Position - HOKA is recognized as the fastest-growing brand under Deckers Brands, with significant sales increases in recent quarters, indicating strong market acceptance of its experiential approach [4] - The Shanghai experience center is strategically located in a high-end commercial area, targeting affluent consumers and aiming to enhance brand visibility and community engagement [5]

Group 1: Deckers Brands - Deckers Brands has shown exceptional performance over the last two decades, with a $10,000 investment growing to over $900,000 [4] - The company owns popular footwear brands UGG and Hoka, both of which are experiencing increasing demand, with UGG sales growing 16% year-over-year and Hoka sales increasing 24% [6][5] - Deckers' revenue grew 17% year-over-year to $1.8 billion, and international sales rose 28% year-over-year, indicating strong growth potential [5][7] - The stock is currently attractively priced at 20 times forward earnings estimates, making it a compelling investment opportunity [8] Group 2: Lululemon Athletica - Lululemon Athletica has also seen its stock fall around 50% from recent highs, presenting a potential undervaluation of its future prospects [10] - The company has achieved consistent double-digit revenue growth, with an annualized growth rate of 19% over the last decade, and a profit margin of 17% [12][15] - Lululemon's revenue grew 13% year-over-year during the fiscal fourth quarter, while competitors like Nike reported declining sales, showcasing its strong market position [13] - The brand's unaided awareness in the U.S. is in the 30% range, indicating significant growth potential, especially in international markets [14][15]

Core Insights - HOKA ONE ONE is aggressively expanding in the Chinese market, opening its first global brand experience center in Shanghai [1][10] - The brand experience center is strategically located in a high-rent area, indicating HOKA's commitment to establishing a strong presence in a competitive market [1][4] - HOKA's sales performance is robust, with significant growth reported in recent financial results, particularly in the Chinese market [8][10] Store and Experience Center Details - The brand experience center spans 1,600 square meters across three floors, with a focus on product display and customer engagement [1][4] - The first two floors showcase urban running products and outdoor gear, while the basement features a "Running Research Institute" for athlete assessments [2][4] - HOKA aims to create a community platform for runners, emphasizing ongoing activities and services beyond traditional retail [4][5] Market Position and Financial Performance - HOKA's parent company, Deckers Brands, reported a 17% year-over-year sales increase, with HOKA's sales growing by 23.7% to $530.9 million [8][10] - The brand achieved a record annual revenue of $1.807 billion in the previous fiscal year, highlighting its rapid growth trajectory [8][10] - The Chinese market contributed significantly to Deckers Brands' international sales, with a 28.5% increase year-over-year [10] Competitive Landscape - The outdoor and sports market is becoming increasingly competitive, with more brands entering the high-end segment [11][13] - HOKA faces competition from established brands like Nike and Adidas, as well as emerging brands like ON and Brooks, which also target similar consumer demographics [11][13] - The market is shifting towards high-end products and value-driven brands, necessitating strategic adaptations from HOKA and similar brands [11][13] Future Considerations - HOKA's growth may face challenges as it transitions from a niche brand to a more mainstream presence, requiring a broader product range and market strategy [13] - The brand is exploring various running-related products to enhance its appeal and capture a wider audience [13] - The evolving consumer landscape emphasizes the need for brands to adapt to changing preferences and competitive pressures [11][13]

Valuation and Performance - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is trading at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 18.15, which is above the industry average of 15.39 [1][4] - The stock has decreased by 29.7% over the past three months, underperforming the industry drop of 17.5% [4][5] - DECK's stock price is currently 47.2% below its 52-week high of $223.98, and it is trading below its 100 and 200-day moving averages of $156.06 and $159.00, respectively [9][10] Growth Challenges - The decline in Deckers' stock price is attributed to slowing growth and increasing competition in the footwear and accessories market, with revenue slowdown linked to inventory issues affecting major brands like UGG [5][11] - UGG sales are projected to decline by 13.2% in the fourth quarter, contributing to an overall revenue growth deceleration from 21.2% to just 1% [12] - Increased markdowns and promotional efforts, particularly for HOKA, are expected to pressure margins, alongside external cost headwinds from higher freight expenses and unfavorable foreign exchange movements [13][16] Cost Pressures - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose by 24.9% year over year to $535.3 million, driven by increased marketing investments and workforce expansion [14][16] - Management anticipates SG&A expenses to account for 35% of revenues, with operating margins expected to contract by 610 basis points, leading to a projected bottom line decline of 43.8% [16] Long-term Growth Potential - Deckers is focusing on brand portfolio enhancement through innovative product launches and optimized distribution strategies, with projected revenue growth of 15% in fiscal 2025 [17] - UGG and HOKA are expected to grow by 10% and 24%, respectively, with international markets projected to increase revenues by 22.2% in fiscal 2025 [18] Investment Outlook - Despite strong brand presence, DECK faces headwinds that may limit near-term upside potential, making the current valuation less attractive for investors [19][20] - Existing investors may consider locking in gains or trimming positions, while prospective investors find limited margin of safety at current valuation levels [20]

Company Overview - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE: DECK) is a US company that specializes in marketing and distributing footwear for casual use, ultra-runners, and outdoor activities [1] - The company is known for its prominent brands, including UGG, HOKA, and AHNU [1] Financial Performance - The company has experienced fluctuations in portfolio performance, with a yield of 17.5% at the end of 2020, a near flat performance in 2022 with a loss of only 0.16%, and a disappointing gain of 0.8% during a market surge [1] - Recently, the company has improved its risk strategy, achieving a yield of 12.84% last year with a beta of less than 0.6 [1] Investment Strategy - The company is focusing on algorithmic trading and trading strategies, with an interest in macroeconomic topics, particularly in relation to China [1] - There is a plan to initiate a beneficial long position in DECK through stock purchases or call options within the next 72 hours [2]