In recent months, Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE: DECK ) has fallen by around 50% from its all-time high of $223.98, with the stock currently trading near $111. But that presents an opportunity, as Deckers Outdoor is among the highest-quality shoe retailer stocksI objectively search for undervalued stocks of any size across a wide variety of industries using quantitative methods that I've thoroughly backtested for success. I believe the numbers are more important than the story (most of the time), as the ...

Core Insights - The article compares Canada Goose (GOOS) and Deckers (DECK) to determine which stock offers better value for investors [1] Valuation Metrics - Canada Goose has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook, while Deckers has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - GOOS has a forward P/E ratio of 9.72, significantly lower than DECK's forward P/E of 17.16, suggesting GOOS may be undervalued [5] - The PEG ratio for GOOS is 0.65, compared to DECK's 1.13, indicating GOOS has a better expected EPS growth relative to its price [5] - GOOS has a P/B ratio of 2.22, while DECK's P/B ratio is 6.39, further supporting the notion that GOOS is more attractively valued [6] - GOOS has a Value grade of A, whereas DECK has a Value grade of C, highlighting the relative undervaluation of GOOS [6] Conclusion - Overall, GOOS shows stronger estimate revision activity and more attractive valuation metrics than DECK, making it a more appealing option for value investors [7]

Group 1: Cava Group - Cava Group is experiencing significant growth, with a full-year revenue increase of 33% and same-restaurant sales up 13%, accelerating to 21% in Q4 [3][4] - The company has a profit margin of 13%, comparable to Chipotle Mexican Grill, indicating strong earnings growth potential as it expands [4] - Cava opened 15 new restaurants in Q4, ending the year with 367 locations, and plans to open 62 to 66 new locations in 2025, aiming for over 1,000 by 2032 in the U.S. [5] - The stock is currently trading 45% off its highs, with a more reasonable valuation of 11 times sales compared to 19 times at its peak [5][6] Group 2: Deckers Brands - Deckers Brands, known for Hoka and UGG, has shown remarkable performance, with a $10,000 investment in 2002 now worth $6 million [7] - The company is projected to achieve approximately 15% sales growth for fiscal 2025, gaining market share from competitors like Nike [8] - UGG sales grew 16% year-over-year during the holiday quarter, while Hoka sales surged 24%, positioning Deckers for its fifth consecutive year of double-digit sales growth [8] - Hoka is generating over $2 billion in annualized sales, with significant growth opportunities remaining in the footwear market [9] - International sales grew 28% year-over-year in fiscal Q3, indicating potential for further expansion [10] - Despite challenges from tariffs and higher import costs, the stock is trading at 17 times this year's earnings estimate, down 51% from previous highs, suggesting it may be undervalued [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Nike and Deckers Outdoor are both struggling in the current economic climate, with Nike down 24% and Deckers down 46% this year, making them vulnerable to discretionary spending declines and increased consumer costs due to tariffs [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Deckers has shown better growth compared to Nike, achieving double-digit growth for multiple quarters, while Nike is facing challenges in maintaining its revenue [2] - Deckers caters to a more diverse customer market, which aids its growth potential, while Nike's larger scale does not guarantee better performance [4] - Deckers' annual sales are approximately $5 billion, significantly lower than Nike's $50 billion, allowing it to maintain a high growth rate with less revenue pressure [4] Group 2: Valuation Comparison - Both companies have seen their valuations decrease sharply this year, with their price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples now being comparable [5] - Nike is trading at a slightly higher valuation than Deckers, despite its larger market presence and stronger brand [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - Deckers is currently experiencing excellent growth and has a promising long-term trajectory due to its diverse product lines, despite potential challenges from tariffs and economic slowdowns [8] - Nike is undergoing a long and uncertain transition, with management focusing on reconnecting with retailers and launching innovations, but faces challenges from rising fast fashion trends and consumer price sensitivity [9] - Deckers is viewed as the better investment option due to its growth rate and lower P/E ratio, without the complications of a turnaround strategy that Nike is facing [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 is down about 6% year-to-date, with significant declines from mid-February highs [1] - Many stocks have underperformed due to President Trump's tariffs affecting nearly every sector [1] Group 2: Deckers Outdoor - Deckers Outdoor is the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500, down approximately 46% this year [2] - Concerns over future growth and tariffs have negatively impacted investor sentiment [3] - Despite struggles, 12 out of 17 analysts recommend buying the stock, with an average price target suggesting a 70% upside [4][5] Group 3: Teradyne - Teradyne's stock is down 39%, primarily due to slowing demand for semiconductors and AI solutions [7][8] - The company cut its second-quarter guidance, indicating potential revenue declines of up to 10% [9] - Analysts remain optimistic, with 13 out of 17 rating the stock a buy and an average price target implying 48% upside [10][11] Group 4: ON Semiconductor - ON Semiconductor is down 38%, facing challenges in revenue growth due to high valuations and demand concerns in the semiconductor sector [12][13] - The company abandoned a $6.9 billion acquisition of Allegro Microsystems due to regulatory challenges [14] - Analysts are mixed, with 15 out of 24 recommending a buy, but concerns about revenue visibility have led to a downgrade from buy to neutral by B. Riley [15][16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) are competing in the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, each with distinct strategies and brand portfolios, facing similar challenges such as weather-related sales volatility and changing consumer preferences [1][2]. Urban Outfitters (URBN) - URBN has shown consistent performance across its diverse brand portfolio, including Anthropologie and Free People, with effective inventory management and merchandising strategies leading to higher margins [3]. - The Comparable Retail segment reported net sales growth of 8.3% for Anthropologie and 8% for Free People in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 [4]. - The Wholesale segment experienced strong growth, particularly driven by Free People's full-price selling strategy, while the Nuuly rental platform saw a 78.4% increase in net sales, achieving $13 million in operating profit for its first full year [5]. - URBN plans to open 58 new stores in fiscal 2026, focusing on high-productivity locations and aiming to expand FP Movement to 300 stores across North America [6]. - For fiscal 2026, URBN anticipates mid-single-digit sales growth, with positive retail comps expected at Free People and Anthropologie [7]. - Nuuly is projected to achieve double-digit revenue growth, supported by increasing subscriber numbers [8]. Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) - DECK is experiencing growth through its UGG and HOKA brands, with UGG leading in the premium lifestyle footwear market and HOKA growing in the high-performance segment [9]. - DECK expects a 15% year-over-year increase in fiscal 2025 net sales to $4.9 billion, with HOKA projected to grow by 24% and UGG by 10% [10]. - The company is focusing on innovation, with new product releases for HOKA and diversification of UGG's offerings beyond winter footwear [11]. - International expansion is a key strategy for DECK, particularly in high-potential markets like China [12]. - The direct-to-consumer segment has seen significant growth, supported by strong digital performance and an expanding retail presence [13]. - DECK faces near-term challenges, including inventory constraints and rising costs, which may impact fiscal performance [14]. Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates URBN's fiscal 2026 sales and EPS growth of 6.6% and 14.5%, respectively, while DECK's fiscal 2025 estimates suggest 15.4% sales growth and 21% EPS growth [15][16]. - Stock performance has diverged, with DECK shares declining 36.6% over the past six months, while URBN shares have increased by 42.8% [17]. - Valuation metrics show URBN's forward P/E at 10.61X, below its three-year median, while DECK's forward P/E is at 16.23X, also below its median [18]. - URBN is viewed as a more attractive investment opportunity due to its diversified growth strategies and favorable valuation compared to DECK, which is currently facing operational pressures [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of Wall Street analysts' recommendations, particularly focusing on Deckers (DECK), and emphasizes the importance of using these recommendations in conjunction with other analytical tools like Zacks Rank for making informed investment decisions [1][5][10]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Recommendations - Deckers has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.85, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on 20 brokerage firms' recommendations [2]. - Out of the 20 recommendations, 11 are Strong Buy and 1 is Buy, which accounts for 55% and 5% of all recommendations respectively [2]. Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Solely relying on the ABR for investment decisions may not be advisable, as studies show that brokerage recommendations often fail to guide investors effectively towards stocks with high price appreciation potential [5]. - Analysts from brokerage firms tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, issuing five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [6][10]. Zacks Rank as an Alternative - Zacks Rank is presented as a more reliable tool, categorizing stocks into five groups based on earnings estimate revisions, which have shown a strong correlation with near-term stock price movements [8][11]. - The Zacks Rank is updated more frequently than the ABR, reflecting timely changes in analysts' earnings estimates [12]. Current Earnings Estimates for Deckers - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers has declined by 1.2% over the past month to $5.88, indicating growing pessimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [13]. - This decline in consensus estimates has resulted in a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) for Deckers, suggesting caution despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [14].

Core Insights - Deckers (DECK) is positioned to potentially continue its earnings-beat streak, particularly in the upcoming report, as it has a history of exceeding earnings estimates [1] - The company has achieved an average surprise of 22.86% over the last two quarters, indicating strong performance [1] Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, Deckers posted earnings of $3 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.60 per share, resulting in a surprise of 15.38% [2] - For the previous quarter, the company exceeded expectations by reporting earnings of $1.59 per share against an estimate of $1.22 per share, delivering a surprise of 30.33% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Deckers have been trending upward, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of another earnings beat [5][8] - The current Earnings ESP for Deckers is +6.75%, suggesting that analysts have become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [8] Zacks Rank and Predictive Metrics - Deckers holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), which, when combined with a positive Earnings ESP, suggests a high probability of beating consensus estimates, with historical data showing nearly 70% success in such cases [6][8] - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7]

Market Overview - The stock market experienced a sharp decline on Monday due to tariff concerns, a falling dollar, and rising yields, leading to uncertainty for consumer goods companies [1] - Notable declines were observed in home improvement retail, consumer retail, and fashion sectors, with Home Depot down 3.6%, Lowe's down 2.8%, Boot Barn down 2.6%, and Deckers Outdoor down 2% [1] Tariff Impact - The market is awaiting signs of tariff negotiations, but as of Monday, no deals were in place, and tariffs of 20% or more remain [2] - If tariffs are a long-term issue rather than a temporary tactic, companies like Deckers Outdoor may face pressure to raise prices or cut margins [3] Economic Concerns - Rising prices due to tariffs could lead to reduced consumer spending, potentially impacting discretionary purchases such as running shoes and home improvement projects [4] - The overall economic impact raises concerns about a possible recession if consumer spending declines significantly [4] Currency and Bond Market Effects - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.1% on Monday and is down over 10% from its peak in early 2025, making imports at least 20% more expensive due to tariffs [5] - The 10-year government bond yield increased by 16 basis points to 4.41%, indicating investor expectations of higher rates rather than lower ones, contrasting with declining rates in Europe [6] Market Sentiment - The current market is characterized by uncertainty regarding tariffs and the economy, which could lead to reduced consumer spending and negatively affect retailers and fashion companies [7] - The falling dollar and rising yields suggest a potential structural shift in global sentiment, which may lead to lower stock prices as investors demand higher yields from stocks [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of medium-term investment strategies that can help individual investors gain an advantage over Wall Street traders [1] - The Cyclical Investor's Club (CIC) focuses on All-Weather-Growth strategies, aiming to be sensitive to economic and market cycles while investing for long-term growth [1] - The CIC strategies are designed to reduce the risk of losses without compromising medium and long-term portfolio returns [1]