Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao's 2025 performance meets market expectations with a slight revenue increase and stable profit margins [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2025 increased by 0.5% year-on-year to 59.4 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 15.5%, down 0.9 percentage points [1] - Core net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 2% to 1.36 billion yuan, aligning with market forecasts [1] - The company declared a dividend of 0.03 HKD per share earlier in the year, maintaining an annual payout ratio of 28%, resulting in a current dividend yield of 2.3% [1] Sales Performance - Total sales for 2025 reached 113.5 billion yuan, exceeding the initial target of 110 billion yuan, representing a 16% year-on-year increase [1] - The company improved its ranking to 8th nationally, while the overall industry saw a decline of 20% [1] - The average selling price increased by 24% year-on-year to 27,000 yuan per square meter due to structural factors [1] Land Acquisition and Inventory Management - In 2025, the company acquired 21 plots of land in core cities, with a total land cost of 57.7 billion yuan, a 73% increase year-on-year [1] - The company completed 35% of its "Fighting Plan" for handling 160 billion yuan of old inventory, with asset disposal values of 18 billion, 33 billion, and 5.8 billion yuan for land, projects, and bulk disposals respectively [1] Financing Costs - The company issued 9.3 billion yuan in domestic public bonds at a historic low interest rate of 2.3% and secured additional loans at an average cost of 2.34%, a decrease of 64 basis points year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - For 2026, the company anticipates a stable increase in sales, projecting a saleable value of 220 billion yuan with a 55% sell-through rate [2] - The company aims for a 30 billion yuan equity investment target while continuing its inventory disposal plan, expecting to reach 60% progress in 2026 [2] - The company identifies establishing a "special and beautiful" industry benchmark as a key task for the upcoming five-year plan [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2026-2027, with a target price of 2.5 HKD, corresponding to 0.8 times the 2026 P/B ratio and an 86% upside potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao has achieved significant growth in sales and profitability in 2025, becoming a benchmark for high-quality development in the real estate sector despite overall industry challenges [1][2]. Sales Performance - In 2025, China Jinmao's contracted sales reached 113.5 billion yuan, a 16% year-on-year increase, making it one of the few top-tier real estate companies to achieve positive sales growth [2] - The company's ranking in the industry improved to 8th place, marking a historical high since its listing [2] - The sales structure is optimized, with 96% of contracted sales coming from first and second-tier cities, and key regions like North China and East China accounting for 73% [2] - The average contracted sales price for residential properties increased by 24% year-on-year to 27,000 yuan per square meter, reflecting strong market recognition of the company's product value [2] Investment Strategy - The company adopted a "proactive but not aggressive" investment strategy, with 21 new projects in 2025, 66% of which are located in first and second-tier cities [3] - 89% of the unsold inventory is concentrated in first and second-tier cities, with nearly 30% in first-tier cities, providing a solid foundation for future performance growth [3] Profitability and Financial Health - In 2025, the company achieved a gross profit of 9.221 billion yuan, a 7% increase, with an overall gross margin rising to 16% [4] - Shareholder profit reached 1.253 billion yuan, an 18% year-on-year increase, indicating comprehensive improvement in profitability metrics [4] - The company implemented efficient operational strategies, including the rapid launch and clearance of new projects, reducing the average initial opening cycle to 5.2 months [4] - Cost control measures led to a decrease in sales, management, and financial expenses by 4%, 13%, and 9% respectively, enhancing profit margins [4] Financial Structure - The company maintained a low financing cost, with an average cost of new financing at 2.75% and public market financing as low as 2.3% [5] - The debt structure improved, with the proportion of development and operational loans rising to 50% and foreign currency debt decreasing to 20% [5] - As of the end of the period, the company had over 70 billion yuan in unused bank credit, providing ample liquidity for project development and investment [5] Diversification and Future Outlook - The company is developing a second growth curve through diversified business efforts, with property management area increasing by 5% and revenue growing by 18.5% [6] - The chairman emphasized that despite the market still being in a bottoming phase, there are significant structural opportunities for companies with strong product capabilities [6] - For 2026, the company aims to maintain stable sales growth while continuing to focus on high-energy cities and precise investment strategies [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for China Jinmao (00817.HK) [5][3] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 59.37 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.25 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year [1][8] - The company recorded a signed sales amount of 113.5 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 16% year-on-year growth, making it the only company among the top 10 real estate firms to achieve sales growth [2][10] - The company has actively replenished its land reserves in core cities, acquiring 21 plots of land with a total value exceeding 100 billion yuan, while also revitalizing 15 existing land projects [2][11] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for 2025 was 15.5%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][8] - The company successfully reduced its financing costs, with total interest expenses decreasing by 7% year-on-year and financing costs down by 10% [2][11] - As of the end of 2025, the company's net debt to adjusted capital ratio stood at 69%, remaining stable [2][11] Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts revenues and net profits for 2026 and 2027 to be 56.34 billion yuan and 54.54 billion yuan, and 1.1 billion yuan and 1.12 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.08 yuan for both years [3][16]

里昂发布研报称，中国金茂（00817）连续两年录得盈利，合约销售亦重回增长轨道。整体而言，该行 相信公司正处于清晰的复苏路径，而增持计划亦将管理层与股东的利益绑定，有望推动估值进一步重 估，加上公司的央企背景，可进一步增强投资者信心。目标价由1.32港元上调至1.52港元，重申"跑赢大 市"评级。该行预期，随着高成本库存大致消化，发展物业利润率将触底反弹，预计优质土地储备将支 持利润率保持韧性，带动未来数年盈利增长。 责任编辑：史丽君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 里昂发布研报称，中国金茂（00817）连续两年录得盈利，合约销售亦重回增长轨道。整体而言，该行 相信公司正处于清晰的复苏路径，而增持计划亦将管理层与股东的利益绑定，有望推动估值进一步重 估，加上公司的央企背景，可进一步增强投资者信心。目标价由1.32港元上调至1.52港元，重申"跑赢大 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 市"评级。该行预期，随着高成本库存大致消化，发展物业利润率将触底反弹，预计优质土地储备将支 持利润率保持韧性，带动未来数年盈利增长。 责任编辑：史丽君 ...

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，中国金茂(00817)连续两年录得盈利，合约销售亦重回增长轨道。 整体而言，该行相信公司正处于清晰的复苏路径，而增持计划亦将管理层与股东的利益绑定，有望推动 估值进一步重估，加上公司的央企背景，可进一步增强投资者信心。目标价由1.32港元上调至1.52港 元，重申"跑赢大市"评级。该行预期，随着高成本库存大致消化，发展物业利润率将触底反弹，预计优 质土地储备将支持利润率保持韧性，带动未来数年盈利增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China Jinmao (00817.HK) reported a significant increase in contracted sales, achieving 113.5 billion yuan, a 16% year-on-year growth, amidst a challenging real estate market, positioning itself as the 8th largest in the industry [3] Group 1: Sales Performance - The company's sales performance is notable as it achieved a record high in contracted sales while most top-tier real estate firms experienced declines [3] - The average selling price of residential contracts increased by 24% year-on-year, from approximately 21,800 yuan per square meter to 27,000 yuan per square meter [3] - Sales in first and second-tier cities accounted for 96% of total sales, with significant contributions from Beijing and Shanghai, each exceeding 20 billion yuan in sales [4] Group 2: Profitability and Financial Health - The company reported a gross profit of 9.221 billion yuan, a 7% increase, with an overall gross margin rising to 16% [4] - Net profit attributable to owners increased by 18% to 1.253 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in profitability [4] - The average financing cost decreased to 2.75%, maintaining a competitive position in the industry [5] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Since 2024, the company has acquired 43 projects focused on core cities, with an average net profit margin exceeding 10% [5] - The company completed the clearance of 47 projects in 2025, enhancing operational efficiency and cash flow [5] - The management emphasized a strategy of "active but not aggressive" investment, concentrating on high-tier cities [6] Group 4: Growth Initiatives - The company is advancing its second growth curve through its subsidiary, Jinmao Services, which saw a 5% increase in managed area and an 18.5% rise in revenue [6] - The commercial operation revenue grew by 9%, and hotel EBITDA increased by 31%, reflecting successful diversification efforts [6] - The company has initiated the first public REITs for consumer infrastructure in China, with stable dividend distribution rates above 5% [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Management aims to transition from merely surviving the industry adjustment to thriving, focusing on optimizing existing assets and enhancing new growth [7]

Financial Performance - In 2025, China Jinmao reported revenue of approximately 59.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1% [1] - Gross profit was approximately 9.221 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year [1] - Profit before tax reached approximately 4.967 billion yuan, reflecting a 12% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 1.253 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-on-year [1] - Total assets amounted to approximately 441.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% [1] - Equity attributable to shareholders decreased by 1% to approximately 53.237 billion yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - Property development sales revenue was approximately 49.475 billion yuan, accounting for 80% of total revenue, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1] - Property investment revenue was approximately 1.672 billion yuan, accounting for 3% of total revenue, down 1% year-on-year due to the previous year's asset transfer [1] - Hotel operation revenue was approximately 1.62 billion yuan, also accounting for 3% of total revenue, down 5% due to the sale of a hotel [1] - Jinmao Services revenue was approximately 3.667 billion yuan, accounting for 6% of total revenue, up 24% year-on-year due to increased managed area [1] - Other income, including various real estate-related businesses, accounted for 8% of total revenue, with a 15% year-on-year increase [1] Debt and Land Acquisition - As of the end of 2025, accounts payable and notes payable were 24.219 billion yuan, a 6% increase from 22.858 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The company achieved a contracted sales amount of approximately 113.5 billion yuan and acquired 21 land parcels, adding over 100 billion yuan in value [2] - The company successfully revitalized 15 land parcels throughout the year [2] Funding and Market Outlook - In 2025, the company continued to diversify its funding sources, issuing multiple bonds with varying interest rates [2] - The management noted that the overall performance of real estate companies continued to face pressure, with challenges in sales due to buyer confidence and market risks [2] - The hotel market is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with expectations for further brand and chain development despite short-term profit challenges [3] - The commercial leasing market is entering a phase of inventory management, with a significant reduction in new investments [3] - The chairman expressed optimism about a potential market rebound after a period of stabilization, particularly in first- and second-tier cities [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Jinmao (00817) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant sales growth and is actively acquiring land, indicating that its performance has reached a bottom [1] - In 2025, the company achieved a sales amount of 113.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, making it the only company among the top 10 to show positive growth [6] - The company’s financing costs have continued to decline, with an average new financing cost of 2.75% in 2025, down 64 basis points from the end of 2024 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2028 are as follows: - 2024: 59,053 million RMB - 2025: 59,371 million RMB - 2026E: 54,525 million RMB - 2027E: 51,099 million RMB - 2028E: 49,190 million RMB - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2024: 701 million RMB - 2025: 592 million RMB - 2026E: 737 million RMB - 2027E: 822 million RMB - 2028E: 998 million RMB - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 1.99% in 2024 to 2.87% in 2028 [5][7] Sales and Land Acquisition - In 2025, the company’s sales area was 4.79 million square meters, a decrease of 17.6% year-on-year, while the average sales price increased by 40.1% to 23,700 RMB per square meter [6] - The land acquisition amount in 2025 was 57.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 73%, with a land acquisition/sales amount ratio of 51% [6] Market Position - The company ranks 8th in the industry, improving its position by 4 places year-on-year, and has a significant unsold inventory valued at approximately 278.6 billion RMB, with 89% located in first and second-tier cities [6]

上 市 公 司 房地产 2026 年 03 月 25 日 中国金茂 (00817) ——销售快增，拿地积极，业绩见底 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 03 月 24 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 1.34 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8499.53 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 1.82/0.99 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 181.07 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 13,512.47 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8802 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -18% 32% 82% HSCEI 中国金茂 资料来源：Bloomberg 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ...

Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao (00817) has demonstrated stable profitability amidst a challenging real estate sector, with significant growth in key financial metrics for the year 2025 [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross profit of 9.221 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7% [1][4]. - Gross margin improved to 16%, up by 1 percentage point compared to the previous year [1][4]. - Shareholder profit (including fair value gains from investment properties) increased by 18% year-on-year [1][4]. - Management indicated that the gross margin for development business is expected to rise from 11% to 13%, a 2 percentage point increase [1][4]. Market Position and Growth Outlook - Citigroup's report suggests that China Jinmao has entered a growth cycle from 2025 to 2027, with projected contract sales growth of 16% and 7% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1][4]. - The company is expected to rank eighth in the industry due to its growth trajectory [1][4]. - China Jinmao is accelerating land acquisitions, with 66% of new purchases located in Beijing and Shanghai, indicating a robust financial position [1][4]. Project Development - Starting in 2024, the company plans to launch 43 new projects, with a net profit margin exceeding 10% [1][4]. - The company is also revitalizing 15 land parcels through land swaps or changes in land use [1][4]. Analyst Rating - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating on China Jinmao, designating it as a preferred stock, and has raised the target price from 1.8 HKD to 1.9 HKD [1][4].