8月25日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务局、人民银行上海市分行、 市公积金管理中心等六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》（下称《通知》）。 《通知》内容包括调减住房限购、优化住房公积金、优化个人住房信贷以及完善个人住房房产税等政 策，自2025年8月26日起施行。 受此消息带动，A股市场房地产板块大涨。截至昨日下午收盘，万通发展（600246）涨停，深深房A和 万科A涨超9%，荣盛发展（002146）和金地集团（600383）涨近7%。 三是市场预期从悲观转向博弈修复。一方面估值处于历史底部，万科等A股动态市盈率显著低于行业均 值。另一方面资金面形成共振，公募基金地产持仓比例降至历史低位，政策利好推动机构资金回补。同 时，北向资金单日净买入地产股超30亿元，创年内新高。 | 地产开发(88)· | | 米幅% | 圳价 | 重比 | 版速% | 思市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 万通发展 | R | 9.99 | 12.77 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 241.41亿 | | 深深房Ａ | ...

本集团财务业绩下降的主要原因为本报告期间，本集团的投资物业公允价值净减少为6004.7万港元，相 比去年同期的金额为1279万港元较高。 亚证地产(00271)发布截至2025年6月30日止6个月中期业绩，该集团取得收入2337万港元，同比减少 3.5%;期间亏损6326.3万港元，同比增加271.33%;每股亏损5.1港仙。 ...

地产行业研究框架培训 20250819 摘要 如何择时进行地产行业投资？ 择时是地产行业投资的重要逻辑，需要首先判断行业的大周期。从新房销量来 看，目前已经从高点跌了接近 50%，去年（2024 年）新房住宅销量约为 8 亿 地产开发核心竞争力体现在前端融资能力、资金周转效率和费用控制能 力。资金周转效率可用并表回款除以有息负债衡量，费用控制情况采用 回款口径的期间费用率。 通过融资成本、周转效率、期间费用和拿地强度四个指标，可以对房企 进行综合评分，选出基本面表现靠前且价格合理的公司，实现"好公 司"和"好股票"双击逻辑。 平方米。参考发达国家和地区的住房开发率，中国未来的新房需求中枢大约在 8 亿平方米左右。然而，由于过去几年二手房对新房分流明显，因此需要综合 考虑新旧两类住房总销量。目前中国的新旧住房总销量尚未达到海外经验中的 最大跌幅 50%，去年（2024 年）从高点跌了 30%多。因此，预计后续房地产 销量可能还会继续下跌，但降幅会有所收窄。 如何判断房地产市场是否触底？ 判断房地产市场是否触底需要综合考虑销量和价格两个方面。从海外经验来看， 新旧住房总销量在大型调整周期中的最大跌幅平均为 50% ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,270, down 0.98% for the day but up 25.97% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,543, down 0.59% for the day and up 24.06% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83% to close at 3,696, with a year-to-date increase of 10.29% [1] Currency and Commodity Trends - The Renminbi Index is at 96.040, showing a 0.78% increase over the last month but a 4.49% decrease over the last six months [2] - Brent crude oil is priced at $66.210 per barrel, down 2.36% over the last month and down 8.75% over the last six months [2] - Gold is priced at $3,340.21 per ounce, reflecting a 0.51% increase over the last month and a 15.36% increase over the last six months [2] Company Developments - Zhongshou Games has formed a strategic partnership with OSL Group to integrate compliant virtual asset financial infrastructure with its global IP gaming ecosystem, aiming to promote a compliant stablecoin ecosystem [11] - Tencent Cloud has launched the CloudBase AI CLI, which can reduce coding time by 80% by allowing developers to manage AI tools through natural language commands [12] - Keling AI has introduced a new feature in its 2.1 model that enhances video generation capabilities, allowing for smoother transitions and better semantic understanding [13] - Reading Group has entered a strategic cooperation plan with Tencent's "Honor of Kings" to explore collaboration in the national creative content sector [14] Economic Indicators - The U.S. saw a net capital inflow of $77.8 billion in June, marking the second consecutive month of net inflows [15] - U.S. import prices rose by 0.4% in July, the largest increase in 15 months, while export prices met expectations [16] - U.S. Senate members are urging a reconsideration of policies allowing Nvidia and AMD to export AI semiconductor chips to China, citing national security concerns [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index C (005052) has shown a recent decline in net value, with a current value of 1.1781 yuan, down by 0.64% [1] Performance Summary - The fund's performance over the past month has yielded a return of 2.25%, ranking 1358 out of 1510 in its category [1] - Over the last six months, the fund has achieved a return of 18.84%, ranking 157 out of 1353 [1] - Year-to-date, the fund has returned 17.73%, ranking 386 out of 1322 [1] Holdings Overview - The top ten stock holdings of the fund account for a total of 27.13%, with the following allocations: - Far East Horizon: 3.85% - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank: 3.76% - Hang Lung Properties: 3.30% - Postal Savings Bank of China: 2.76% - Zheshang Bank: 2.61% - PCCW: 2.33% - Henderson Land Development: 2.23% - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation: 2.14% - Hang Seng Bank: 2.08% - China Construction Bank: 2.07% [1] Fund Details - The Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index C was established on December 4, 2017, and as of June 30, 2025, it has a total scale of 1.534 billion yuan [1] - The fund is managed by Hu Di and He Zhihao [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [6] Core Insights - In the first seven months of 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in the core 30 cities decreased by 7% year-on-year, while the transaction area of second-hand residential properties in 15 cities increased by 10% [1][3] - The average transaction price of new residential properties in the core 30 cities increased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025 [2] - The report anticipates that with the continued implementation of real estate policies, high-energy core cities will benefit from urban renewal, leading to structural optimization and gradual stabilization of the market [4][81] Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In July 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in the core 30 cities was 919 million square meters, down 19.4% year-on-year and 24.7% month-on-month [1] - The average transaction price for new residential properties in July 2025 was 24,361 yuan per square meter, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year but a decrease of 5.0% month-on-month [2] - For the first seven months of 2025, the average transaction price was 24,898 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [2] Second-Hand Housing Market - In July 2025, the transaction area of second-hand residential properties in the core 15 cities was 1,290 million square meters, down 5.8% year-on-year [3] - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in July 2025 was 22,924 yuan per square meter, down 5.3% year-on-year [72] - For the first seven months of 2025, the average transaction price was 24,091 yuan per square meter, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. Stable leading companies with high product reputation and continuous sales ranking improvement, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [4][82] 2. Companies with rich stock resources and strong operational brand competitiveness, like China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [4][82] 3. Long-term growth potential in the property service industry, recommending companies like China Merchants Shekou and Greentown Service [4][82]

Core Viewpoint - The Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index A (005051) has shown a net value increase of 0.78% to 1.2098 yuan, with a one-month return of 2.23%, a six-month return of 20.20%, and a year-to-date return of 16.91% [1] Fund Performance - The fund's recent performance ranks 1498 out of 1741 for the one-month return, 228 out of 1537 for the six-month return, and 321 out of 1514 for the year-to-date return [1] Fund Holdings - The top ten stock holdings of the fund account for a total of 27.13%, with the largest positions being Far East Horizon (3.85%), Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3.76%), and Hang Lung Properties (3.30%) [1] Fund Details - The Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index A was established on December 4, 2017, and as of June 30, 2025, it has a total asset size of 1.806 billion yuan [1] - The fund is managed by Hu Di and He Zhihao [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the resurgence of "betting-style" investment strategies among public funds in the A-share market, driven by structural market conditions [1][5] - Some actively managed equity funds are concentrating their holdings in specific sectors, often deviating significantly from their performance benchmarks, which are typically broad indices like the CSI 300 [1][4] - A case study of a fund that has doubled its net asset value within a year highlights its concentrated investment in the innovative drug sector, with over 95% of its top ten holdings in this area [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes both successes and failures of the "betting-style" strategy, with some funds performing well in sectors like innovative drugs and gold, while others, such as those heavily invested in real estate and traditional liquor stocks, have underperformed [3][4] - The trend of modifying funds to focus on popular sectors is prevalent among smaller public fund companies, aiming to attract more investments [5][6] - The regulatory environment is shifting, with an emphasis on strengthening the constraints of performance benchmarks, which may lead to clearer investment directions for these funds and higher expectations for fund managers' foresight [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the real estate development sector, including Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Binjiang Group, while also giving a "Buy" rating to China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and China Jinmao in the H-share sector [37][71]. Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown resilience, with the real estate (Shenwan) index rising by 7.8% from July 1 to July 25, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.93 percentage points [29][37]. - The report highlights a structural alpha opportunity in the real estate sector, particularly for leading companies with strong brand recognition and product reputation, despite a weak beta performance overall [4][65]. - The report emphasizes the importance of urban renewal and structural optimization in high-capacity core cities, which are expected to benefit from ongoing real estate policies [70][71]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development Sector Valuation and Key Companies - As of July 25, 2025, the real estate (Shenwan) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 42.93, with a historical percentile of 99.45% [11][20]. - The top-performing A-share real estate companies from July 1 to July 25, 2025, include New Town Holdings (+12.2%), China Merchants Shekou (+9.3%), and JinDi Group (+7.4%) [29][31]. Property Services Sector Valuation and Key Companies - The real estate services (Shenwan) P/E ratio is 46.73, with a historical percentile of 86.21% as of July 25, 2025 [2][40]. - The top-performing A-share property service companies during the same period are TeFa Service (+10.4%), World Union (+9.2%), and Ningbo Fuda (+5.9%) [51][55]. Public Fund Holdings in Real Estate Sector - As of the end of Q2 2025, public funds held a total market value of approximately 484.4 billion yuan in real estate stocks, representing a decrease from 548.4 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025 [3][63]. Market Trends and Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the sales amount for commodity residential properties in major cities increased by 6.0%, while the overall sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 11.4% [4][66]. - The report notes a significant increase in land transaction prices and areas in key cities, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [67][70]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: stable leading companies with high product reputation, companies with rich existing resources, and the long-term growth potential of the property services sector [71][70].

Funding Sources - Incremental funds since late April have been driven by margin financing and insurance contributions, with significant structural inflows observed since late June[1] - Northbound funds have fluctuated around a market value of CNY 2.3 trillion, with trading activity declining to approximately 6% recently, close to levels seen in early April[1] - Margin financing balance has accelerated since late June, reaching CNY 1.94 trillion by July 24, nearing the historical high of CNY 1.95 trillion from March 2025[1] Market Trends - Market style has shifted from a "barbell" structure to a broader sector expansion, with small-cap stocks showing a steeper upward trend compared to mid and large-cap stocks since mid-July[2] - The average repeat rate of leading concepts from April 7 to July 25 has remained around 16%, indicating a lack of sustained momentum in market hotspots, with rapid rotation of themes occurring every 2 to 3 trading days[2] - Overall market sentiment has improved, with increased trading volume and a more optimistic outlook for the third quarter, despite potential limitations in economic growth compared to the second quarter[2] Sector Selection Strategy - Recommended sectors for investment include those likely to benefit from upcoming policies, such as photovoltaic, coal, and chemical industries, as well as technology sectors like robotics that have shown weaker prior performance[2] - Sectors that have not yet experienced significant upward movement, such as alcoholic beverages, service consumption, and real estate development, are also suggested for balanced investment strategies[2] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include delays in policy implementation, crowded funding risks as margin financing approaches previous highs, and discrepancies between estimated and actual fund positions[2]