Economic Growth Forecast - The GDP growth forecast for India is projected to be around 7% to 7.5% for the upcoming quarters, driven by factors such as GST cuts and strong retail demand [1][2][3] - The September GDP data is expected to show strong performance due to the positive impact of GST cuts, with manufacturers ramping up production quickly [2][3] Government Spending and Tax Revenue - There are concerns that consumer spending may soften in the March quarter as the initial boost from GST cuts subsides, particularly after the Diwali season [4] - The government is facing challenges with tax revenues, which have not been strong, leading to potential cuts in expenditure to balance the budget [4] US-India Trade Deal - The US-India trade deal negotiations are reportedly in an advanced state, with expectations that India has opened its non-food agricultural sector to US imports [6][7] - Analysts are divided on the potential impact of the trade deal on Indian farmers, but there is optimism regarding domestic reforms [5][6] Market Reactions - Markets have partially priced in a reduction of tariffs from 50% to around 25%, but a more significant positive reaction may require tariffs to be closer to 15% to 20% [7][8] - There is cautious optimism regarding the trade deal, with the understanding that unexpected shifts can occur [9][10]

Former UK Chancellor George Osborne is a surprise candidate to become the next chairman of HSBC, according to Sky News https://t.co/z7yEEcnqo6 ...

Group 1 - Former finance minister George Osborne is being considered as a potential successor to Sir Mark Tucker as chairman of HSBC Holdings [1] - Sir Mark Tucker stepped down from his position in September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by a potential unwinding of momentum trades, particularly in AI, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's actions, which may lead to volatility and adjustments in valuations [1][2][4]. Market Rotation and Economic Outlook - There is a noticeable rotation in the market, with concerns about the Federal Reserve's decisions impacting investor sentiment. Despite this, there remains a pro-risk stance, particularly towards equities [2][4]. - Earnings growth for the MAG 7 is expected to slow from 18% in Q4 of this year to 14% next year, while the broader market (the forgotten 493) is projected to grow from 2% in Q4 to 15% next year, indicating a broadening market [3]. Earnings Projections and Investment Strategy - Earnings for the S&P 500 are anticipated to increase by approximately 13% in 2026 and over 14% in 2027, with technology leading this growth [6]. - Investors are advised to view potential declines as buying opportunities, with historical data suggesting that pullbacks of 5% to 10% typically recover quickly [13]. Asset Allocation and Hedge Funds - There is a recommendation to consider hedge funds as part of a global asset allocation strategy, especially in a slowing economy, as they tend to perform well under such conditions [8]. - The focus on global AI developments is emphasized, particularly in emerging markets, which presents additional investment opportunities [9]. Investment Approach for Retail Investors - Retail investors are encouraged to maintain a long-term perspective, focusing on buying and holding equities rather than engaging in high-risk strategies like margin trading [12]. - It is suggested that investors should rotate into sectors showing relative strength, such as pure value over pure growth within the S&P 500 [14].

RT Bloomberg New Economy (@BBGNewEconomy)We’re proud to continue our work with HSBC, a Founding Partner of the #BloombergNewEconomy Forum.From connecting capital to unlocking opportunity, HSBC is driving progress toward a more sustainable global economy.https://t.co/2T7Qg43RaN https://t.co/Ntq3hHf2ex ...

Core Insights - GIFT City is emerging as a significant financial hub in India, attracting global banks and capturing market share from established centers like Hong Kong and Singapore [1][17] - The hub offers tax incentives, including a 10-year tax holiday on business income and the absence of withholding tax on loans, making it an attractive option for lenders [3][17] - Indian companies are increasingly preferring to borrow from GIFT City, with the hub disbursing nearly $20 billion in dollar loans in the fiscal year ended March, representing over a third of total offshore loans for local companies [1][17] Financial Growth and Investment - S&P Global Ratings anticipates that top Indian businesses will increase capital expenditure to approximately $800 billion between fiscal 2026 and 2030, and an additional $1 trillion by fiscal 2035 [5][17] - The banking assets and funds in GIFT City have grown more than twofold since June 2023, with banks managing $94 billion as of June, nearly triple the amount from three years prior [7][10] - The shift of the SGX Nifty contract to GIFT City has boosted the derivatives business, with annual equity derivatives turnover crossing $1 trillion in the fiscal year ended March, up from $255 billion in fiscal 2023 [11][17] Competitive Landscape - GIFT City is taking a larger share of the offshore borrowing market for Indian companies, posing a challenge to established financial centers [4][17] - Domestic banks like Axis Bank have consolidated their foreign business to GIFT City, shutting down branches in other global hubs [9][17] - The all-inclusive borrowing cost in GIFT City is reported to be 50 to 70 basis points lower compared to other global centers, enhancing its competitive edge [17] Challenges and Future Prospects - Despite progress, GIFT City faces challenges in attracting talent and competing with established cities in terms of infrastructure and social amenities [14][17] - The push for Indian corporates to raise foreign equity capital from GIFT City is still in early stages, with no immediate plans from large Mumbai-listed companies [12][17] - The Indian government's initiatives to spur green bond trading in the hub have not gained traction, indicating areas for improvement [13][17]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's Monetary Authority has initiated a pilot program for real-value transactions using tokenised deposits and digital assets, enhancing the city's position as a fintech hub [1][2]. Group 1: Pilot Program Details - The pilot program, part of Project Ensemble, will run until 2026 and focuses on enabling market participants to utilize tokenised deposits for money-market funds and real-time liquidity management [2]. - Seven commercial banks and 13 industry participants are involved in the pilot, aiming to facilitate faster, more transparent, and efficient tokenised transactions [1][6]. Group 2: Corporate Participation and Demand - HSBC completed a cross-bank transfer of HK$3.8 million (US$489,000) in tokenised deposits for Ant International, highlighting the practical application of the pilot [3]. - There is a significant increase in demand for tokenisation from corporate treasuries, with a survey indicating a sixfold surge expected over the next two years [4][5]. Group 3: Benefits of Tokenised Deposits - Tokenised deposits offer continuous access, reduced costs, and enhanced cash management capabilities, allowing businesses to automate payments based on predefined conditions [5]. - The programmability of tokenised deposits is seen as a key advantage for businesses, aligning with the growing trend towards digital asset management [5].

Core Insights - Tether is hiring two top global precious metals traders from HSBC to build a substantial gold reserve and challenge existing market leaders [1][2] - Tether has accumulated one of the largest gold reserves globally, valued at over $12 billion as of September, and is a significant player in the gold market [2] - The rise in gold prices this year has benefited Tether, driven by central bank purchases and concerns over sovereign debt [3] Group 1: Company Developments - Tether plans to expand its gold reserves significantly, leveraging its financial strength and aiming to become a major competitor in the gold market [1] - The company has reported an average weekly increase of over 1 ton of gold over the past year, making it one of the largest gold buyers [2] - Tether's flagship stablecoin, USDT, is backed by a reserve that includes gold and U.S. Treasury securities, with a market capitalization of approximately $20 billion for its gold-backed stablecoin, XAUT [2] Group 2: Market Context - The departure of key traders from HSBC represents a setback for the bank's precious metals business amid increasing competition for talent in the sector [2] - Gold prices have seen their best annual performance since 1979, prompting various financial entities to expand their precious metals teams [2] - Tether's profitability has surged, with $13 billion in earnings last year and an expected $15 billion this year, comparable to top Wall Street investment banks [2]

Group 1 - Tether Holdings SA is accelerating its entry into the physical gold market by hiring two senior precious metals trading executives from HSBC [1] - The company aims to leverage its substantial capital to build a large gold reserve and challenge traditional financial institutions in the gold market [1] - Tether's recent expansion in the precious metals sector has made it one of the largest gold buyers globally, holding over $12 billion in gold [2] Group 2 - Tether has been increasing its gold holdings by over one ton per week on average over the past year, positioning itself just behind central banks and some national reserve institutions [2] - The company issues a stablecoin backed by physical gold, Tether Gold, which currently has a circulation of approximately $2 billion [2] - Tether's profit for 2024 is projected to be around $13 billion, comparable to major Wall Street investment banks, with an expected profit of $15 billion for the current year [2]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings announced the appointment of Sun Wei as an independent non-executive director and member of the Group Risk Management Committee and the Nomination and Corporate Governance Committee, effective January 1, 2026 [1] Group 1: Appointment Details - Sun Wei, aged 69, retired from Morgan Stanley in 2022 and has since served as a senior advisor for the company [1] - Prior to his retirement, Sun Wei held the position of Co-CEO for Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific and served as CEO for Morgan Stanley China from 2006 to 2022 [1] Group 2: Previous Experience - Before joining Morgan Stanley, Sun Wei held several senior regulatory positions at the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, where he contributed to establishing regulatory frameworks and facilitating the overseas listing of Chinese enterprises [1]