We interview JPMorgan Chase’s boss, and his lieutenants https://t.co/MCIsXcns7J ...

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美股与亚洲股市备受资金追捧。 摩根大通的最新报告预测，今年下半年，投资者将向美国股市注入5000亿美元（约合人民币36000亿元）， 其中大部分来自散户投资者。报告显示，截至目前，散户投资者年内累计净买入股票达2700亿美元（约合人 民币19000亿元）。 与此同时，亚洲股市也受到外资青睐，据LSEG的最新数据，亚洲股市6月已连续第二个月吸引了外资净流 入。多家外资机构对亚洲股市的后市展望都较为乐观，高盛在最新的报告中上调了对亚洲股市的回报预期。 36000亿元资金即将涌入 摩根大通在最新发布的报告中预测，2025年下半年，将有一大波资金涌入美国股市。 以Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou为首的摩根大通分析师团队在最新发布的报告中指出，预计在2025年剩余的时间 内，投资者准备向美国股市注入5000亿美元，其中大部分将来自散户投资者。 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou写道："在散户投资者的带领下，我们预计今年剩余时间内的股票购买流量将接近 5000亿美元，这足以推动美股在年底前再上涨5% ...

Group 1 - TQP Research is led by a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) with experience in structured finance, capital markets, and credit risk [1] - The investment approach is value-oriented, focusing on identifying businesses that align with long-term success criteria taught by notable investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger [1] - The primary focus is on micro-cap and small-cap investment opportunities across all sectors [1] Group 2 - TQP Research actively engages with the community and encourages questions or ideas from members [1]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan is set to introduce fees for FinTechs accessing customer bank information, potentially impacting the business model of the FinTech sector significantly [2][5]. Group 1: Fee Structure and Impact - The fees from JPMorgan could reach hundreds of millions of dollars, posing a threat to the FinTech sector's business model [2]. - Pricing sheets have been sent to data aggregators, with fees varying based on how the information is utilized, particularly high for payments-focused firms [3]. - The fees may be charged to aggregators, which would then be passed on to FinTechs and ultimately to consumers [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Context - The implementation of these fees is expected to occur late this year, but they are not finalized and may be subject to negotiation [5]. - This situation unfolds amid uncertainty regarding Section 1033, the "open banking rule," which mandates banks to share customer data with other financial service providers for free [5][6]. - The future of the open banking rule is uncertain, with the Republican administration seeking to vacate it, raising concerns about potential fraud and increased liability for banks [6]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Market Potential - Research indicates that 46% of consumers are "highly willing" to use open banking options for payments and financial services, yet only about 10% of Americans have utilized these options, indicating a significant untapped market [7]. - The challenges faced by providers in the open banking landscape are substantial, despite the vast opportunities available [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has rebounded to historical highs after significant sell-offs in April, but analysts expect the upcoming earnings season to be the weakest since mid-2023, with S&P 500 companies projected to see only a 2.5% year-over-year profit growth in Q2 2023 [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts predict that the earnings growth expectation for the S&P 500 has decreased from 9.4% in early April to 7.1% for the entire year [1]. - The Q2 earnings forecast for S&P 500 companies is at its lowest in two years, with six out of eleven sectors expected to see profit declines [2]. Market Dynamics - Lower earnings expectations may allow companies to exceed these conservative forecasts more easily, as indicated by analysts [2]. - The earnings season is set to begin with major financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and BlackRock reporting soon [2]. Trade War Impact - There is currently no significant evidence that tariffs have drastically reduced demand, despite concerns that trade policies could affect corporate profitability [3]. - Analysts from Bank of America have not observed a major economic rebound since the imposition of tariffs [3]. Profit Margin Trends - The net profit margin for S&P 500 companies is expected to drop to its lowest level since Q1 2024, following five consecutive quarters of increases [4][7]. - This decline may be temporary, with projections indicating a recovery in profit margins by the next quarter and continuing through at least 2026, contingent on cost-cutting measures or accelerated AI adoption [4]. Technology Sector Investments - Major U.S. tech companies are expected to significantly increase their capital expenditures, particularly in AI development, with projected spending rising from $311 billion to approximately $337 billion by FY2026 [7]. - The "big seven" tech companies are anticipated to see a 14% profit growth in Q2, while the overall S&P 500 index is expected to see a slight decline of 0.1% when excluding these companies [7]. Stock Selection Environment - The degree of divergence in individual stock performance is at a rare level, with a correlation index of 0.12 among S&P 500 components, indicating a need for selective stock picking [8][11]. - Analysts suggest focusing on companies with strong cash flow and earnings potential, particularly in the energy, financial, and healthcare sectors [11]. European Market Outlook - European corporate earnings expectations have been downgraded due to concerns over the impact of the trade war on profit margins, with more downgrades than upgrades since mid-March [14]. - The strengthening euro, which has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, may negatively affect the profitability of European export companies [14]. Currency Impact - The weakening dollar, driven by uncertainties surrounding trade policies and potential Fed rate cuts, is seen as beneficial for U.S. export companies [15][16]. - The dollar has declined by 10% this year, marking its worst performance since 1973, which is expected to positively impact revenues for companies like Meta and Microsoft [16].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Vietnam to Overweight (OW) within ASEAN, alongside Singapore and the Philippines, while maintaining Neutral on Indonesia and Malaysia, and Underweight on Thailand [1][18]. Core Insights - Vietnam's recent tariff deal with the US, setting a 20% rate on domestically-produced goods, is viewed as a significant positive development, potentially boosting foreign direct investment (FDI) and supporting economic growth [3][19]. - The report anticipates that announcements of trade deals and lower tariffs will serve as key catalysts for market movements in the near term, particularly for countries actively negotiating with the US [4][19]. - Despite the positive outlook, the report cautions that it is still early for earnings forecasts to rebound, with potential risks of downward revisions remaining [4][19]. Summary by Sections Tariff Negotiations - Vietnam has successfully negotiated a reduction in tariffs from 46% to 20%, with a 40% tariff on transshipment goods, which may impact exports with significant Chinese content [5][19]. - Other ASEAN countries, including Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, are still in discussions with the US regarding tariff negotiations [1][5]. Economic Growth and FDI - Vietnam's GDP growth is projected to approach 8% in 2Q25, driven by public spending and investment disbursement, distinguishing it from other ASEAN nations with limited fiscal room [18][20]. - The report highlights that Vietnam's manufacturing and export sectors are expected to remain resilient, supported by a favorable tariff environment compared to China [19][20]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include industrial real estate, ports, logistics, construction, and technology producers, which are expected to benefit from the lifting of uncertainties surrounding trade policies [4][15]. - The report recommends a focus on domestic growth proxies, particularly in Vietnam's banking, industrial, and consumer discretionary sectors [18][19].

Earnings Reports - Major banks including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, and Citigroup are set to report earnings, with JPMorgan expected to post an EPS of $4.48 on revenue of $44.04 billion [6] - Analysts express concerns over JPMorgan's declining net interest income and increased external borrowing, although the bank's strong credit loss allowance offers some stability [6][7] - Netflix is anticipated to report an EPS of $7.08 on revenue of $11.04 billion, with Needham raising its price target for the stock to $1,500 from $1,126, citing the company's global scale and content investment [7][8] Economic Indicators - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, increasing the annual inflation rate to 2.6% from 2.4% [13] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is also projected to rise by 0.3%, leading to an annual rate increase to 3% from 2.8% [14] - Wells Fargo economists predict that inflation may strengthen but not alarm Federal Reserve officials, with a key focus on upcoming inflation data [15] Retail and Consumer Trends - Amazon's Prime Day event, extended to 96 hours, was reported as the largest ever, with significant savings across over 35 product categories [16][17] - Apple is reportedly leading the bid for U.S. streaming rights for Formula 1 races, offering at least $150 million annually, surpassing ESPN's current deal [17] Dividend Announcements - AbbVie and PNC Financial are set to go ex-dividend on Tuesday, with AbbVie paying out on August 15 and PNC on August 5 [18] - Colgate-Palmolive and Williams-Sonoma will go ex-dividend on Friday, with respective payout dates in August [19] Stock Ratings - UBS has released a list of top and bottom-rated stocks based on its REVS framework, identifying Philip Morris International, Exelixis, and Broadcom among the top five [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced narrow fluctuations with most sectors declining, as the S&P 500 fell by 0.3% and the Nasdaq by 0.1% [3] - There were 8 sectors that increased while 16 sectors decreased, with notable gains in Energy (+2.6%), Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+2.4%), and Transportation (+1.2%) [3] - Conversely, sectors that saw significant declines included Telecommunications (-4.8%), Insurance (-2.6%), and Banks (-2.5%) [3] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500's estimated fund flow was -$5.7 billion this week, a decrease from the previous week's +$23.4 billion, with a total of +$216.4 billion over the last 13 weeks [4] - Fund inflows were observed in 11 sectors, with Semiconductor Products and Equipment leading at +$17.2 billion, followed by Transportation (+$6.0 billion) and Energy (+$4.1 billion) [4] - Sectors experiencing fund outflows included Software and Services (-$15.9 billion) and Automotive and Parts (-$8.2 billion) [4] Earnings Forecast - The dynamic F12M EPS forecast for S&P 500 constituents was adjusted upward by 0.3%, following a 0.2% increase the previous week [5] - Earnings expectations were raised for 21 sectors, with the highest adjustments in Integrated Finance (+0.8%), Automotive and Parts (+0.8%), and Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+0.8%) [5] - Three sectors saw downward revisions, notably Healthcare Equipment and Services (-1.0%) and Telecommunications (-0.2%) [5] Price Performance - The Energy sector recorded a price return of +2.6% this week, while the Telecommunications sector saw a decline of -4.8% [15] - Over the past 52 weeks, the Energy sector has increased by 5.1%, while the Telecommunications sector has decreased by 4.0% [15] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector has shown a remarkable increase of +48.0% over the past 13 weeks [15] Fund Flow Analysis - The Industrial sector led with a net fund inflow of $781 million this week, followed by Energy with $409 million [19] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector also saw significant inflows of $1.716 billion, indicating strong investor interest [19] - In contrast, the Software and Services sector experienced the largest outflow of -$1.594 billion [19]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street investors have shown remarkable resilience to various shocks, including inflation concerns, tariff threats, and geopolitical conflicts, maintaining high levels of confidence in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - Despite escalating trade threats from Trump, including a proposed 35% tariff on Canadian goods and a 50% tariff on copper, speculative sentiment remains high, with Bitcoin surpassing $118,000 and stock markets near record highs [1]. - The S&P 500 index closed slightly below its record high, indicating that traders are less fearful even as indicators of market pressure rise [2]. - Columbia Threadneedle Investments' Josh Kutin noted that the market has remained indifferent to issues like tariffs and geopolitical tensions, suggesting a lack of negative reaction from investors [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The "TACO" trade, which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," reflects a growing belief among investors that the government will retract tariff threats, allowing for increased stock exposure [3]. - Strong momentum and relatively low volatility have led to bullish signals in multiple investment portfolios, encouraging traders to seek tactical opportunities [3]. Group 3: Concerns and Warnings - JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about complacency in the market, suggesting that the current environment may be a pressure test for investors [5]. - Man Group's Kristina Hooper warned that the market rally may have gone too far, and the unresolved tariff situation poses challenges for investors trying to model potential outcomes [5].

Earnings Reports Overview - Upcoming earnings reports from major financial institutions including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and BlackRock are anticipated, with a focus on spending trends and loan losses [2] - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are expected to report strong quarters, driven by increased mergers and acquisitions activity [3] - Retail sales figures are set to be released, with concerns about a potential slowdown due to political instability affecting consumer behavior [4] Company-Specific Insights - JPMorgan is highlighted as a key player, while Wells Fargo is noted for no longer being under a punitive asset cap [2] - Citigroup's earnings report is predicted to be well-received, and BlackRock may present an exciting narrative [2] - Bank of America is recognized for consistently good earnings, with its stock considered undervalued due to Berkshire Hathaway's selling [3] - Abbott Laboratories is favored despite potential misinterpretations of its quarterly results, while PepsiCo is viewed as undervalued relative to its growth [4] - Netflix is expected to report strong results, although the expectations are high [4] - American Express is noted for selling off post-earnings even with good reports, while 3M is anticipated to have one of the best quarters in the industrial sector [5]