Jamie Dimon says private credit is dangerous—but he’s having JPMorgan jump in with a $50 billion bet https://t.co/5Q515Qbzbr ...

J P M O R G A N Global FX Strategy 11 July 2025 Key Currency Views Why the bearish dollar view still holds Figure 1: Various systematic/technical indicators have turned less USD-bearish; while this could lead to consolidation in the near term, we are downplaying the significance on the medium-term view Source: J.P. Morgan See page 49 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook for the Asian economy, suggesting a potential slowdown in growth due to rising effective tariffs and the unwinding of frontloading and transshipment activities [6][15][25]. Core Insights - Asian growth has been supported by low effective tariffs on US imports, but this is expected to change as tariffs rise and scrutiny on transshipment increases [1][6]. - The first half of 2025 saw significant frontloading of exports, particularly in the tech sector, with annualized export momentum reaching nearly 20% [2][5]. - China's export performance has been resilient, with a 20% quarter-on-quarter growth despite punitive tariffs, largely due to transshipment through third countries [3][10]. - Effective tariff rates in Emerging Asia (excluding India and China) are currently around 11%, but could rise to 20.3% if no trade deals are reached [11][15]. - The report forecasts a sharp decline in GDP growth for Emerging Asia, from an average of 3% in the first half of 2025 to 1.3% in the second half [15][16]. Summary by Sections Export Dynamics - Frontloading of exports has significantly boosted growth, with tech exports showing an annualized momentum of 60% [2][5]. - Transshipment of Chinese goods has mitigated the impact of US tariffs, with exports to the US declining by 40% but offset by new markets [3][10]. Tariff Implications - The US has proposed higher tariffs, with a potential doubling of effective rates for many Asian economies if no agreements are reached [11][15]. - Current effective tariff rates are much lower than initially feared, particularly for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are crucial for economies like Taiwan and Singapore [5][12]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a significant slowdown in growth, with EMAX GDP growth expected to drop to less than half of the first half's pace [15][16]. - Monetary policy is expected to play a crucial role in supporting growth, as inflation remains benign and central banks are likely to continue easing cycles [23][25].

Market Expectations & Potential Catalysts - Optimism is high for large-cap banks' Q2 earnings, with focus on loan growth and investment banking activity in the second half of the year [2][3] - IPO market recovery is seen as a potential catalyst for investment banks [3] - High valuations (e g, Bank of America trading at a PE of around 15) suggest caution going into earnings announcements [4] - Regulatory changes are a significant driver for bank stock movements this year [6] Key Metrics & Risk Factors - Net interest income growth, impacted by net interest margin, is a key focus [9] - Credit quality remains generally good, but commercial real estate office market and low FICO score consumers are potential areas of concern [8] - Risk-on sentiment suggests less concern about credit picture, while risk-off would increase focus on credit [7][8] Mergers and Acquisitions - Industry expects consolidation among regional banks due to deregulation [13] - The top 5-7 banks control 85-90% of the assets, with smaller banks controlling the rest, indicating increased polarization in banking [14] - Potential for big regionals to merge or be acquired by G-SIBs exists [15] - Clarity on Basel III endgame proposal is needed before M&A activity accelerates [15] Leadership Transition - Jamie Dimon's leadership has significantly impacted JP Morgan's stock [10] - Jamie Dimon's eventual retirement will likely negatively impact the stock on the day of the announcement [12] - Marianne Lake is considered a potential successor to Jamie Dimon [11]

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JPMorgan created a unit in its commercial and investment bank focused on bespoke financing structures across public and private markets. https://t.co/ukLyTpnoDK ...

and JP Morgan, City and Bank of America, just a few of the financial giants getting ready to report quarterly results. We're going to hear from them this week. Leslie Picker joins us this morning with a bit of a preview of what we can expect and what we should be looking for.Good morning. Hey, good morning, Andrew. Yeah, those big six US banks are up 33% on average just over the last three months alone, and they're set to report second quarter earnings over the next two days.The street is asking whether the ...

Group 1 - The current conservative market expectations for Wall Street earnings may create favorable conditions for bank stocks to continue their strong performance [1] - The KBW Bank Index, which includes 24 institutions such as JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, has risen approximately 37% since April's low, nearing historical highs, outperforming both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices [1] - There is a significant expectation gap in the financial sector, with the sector expected to contribute 18.6% to the S&P 500's overall earnings, while its current weight in the index is only 13.7%, exceeding the average gap over the past 15 years [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict a year-over-year decline of about 1% in the S&P 500 financial sector index for the second quarter, indicating potential upside if actual profits exceed expectations [4] - Major banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are set to report earnings this week, with expectations of improved regulatory environments benefiting large institutions [4] - The completion of stress tests by the Federal Reserve is expected to lead banks to update capital management plans, potentially increasing stock buyback sizes, while the potential weakening of Basel III regulations may further enhance capital flexibility [4] Group 3 - The growth expectations for trading revenue are boosting market confidence, with high trading volumes following the announcement of tariff policies [4] - Challenges remain, as the forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 financial sector index is approximately 17 times, above the 10-year average of 14 times [4] - Factors such as the impact of trade wars on bank profitability, uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, and potential fluctuations in consumer credit quality pose downside risks [5] Group 4 - Supporters argue that regulatory easing and profit growth will drive the sector upward, with analysts noting that current stock prices do not fully reflect the potential for improvement in the industry fundamentals [5] - Multiple favorable factors are expected to contribute to upward momentum in bank stocks [5]

We interview JPMorgan Chase’s boss, and his lieutenants https://t.co/MCIsXcns7J ...

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美股与亚洲股市备受资金追捧。 摩根大通的最新报告预测，今年下半年，投资者将向美国股市注入5000亿美元（约合人民币36000亿元）， 其中大部分来自散户投资者。报告显示，截至目前，散户投资者年内累计净买入股票达2700亿美元（约合人 民币19000亿元）。 与此同时，亚洲股市也受到外资青睐，据LSEG的最新数据，亚洲股市6月已连续第二个月吸引了外资净流 入。多家外资机构对亚洲股市的后市展望都较为乐观，高盛在最新的报告中上调了对亚洲股市的回报预期。 36000亿元资金即将涌入 摩根大通在最新发布的报告中预测，2025年下半年，将有一大波资金涌入美国股市。 以Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou为首的摩根大通分析师团队在最新发布的报告中指出，预计在2025年剩余的时间 内，投资者准备向美国股市注入5000亿美元，其中大部分将来自散户投资者。 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou写道："在散户投资者的带领下，我们预计今年剩余时间内的股票购买流量将接近 5000亿美元，这足以推动美股在年底前再上涨5% ...