Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, Kunlun Energy (0135.HK) [6]. Core Views - Kunlun Energy, as a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation, is positioned to benefit from the high-quality development of its natural gas terminal business, with a projected net profit of 6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [1][4]. - The company aims to increase its dividend payout ratio to 45% by 2024, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1][46]. - The natural gas sales business is expected to maintain strong growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.7% in revenue from 2016 to 2024, supported by a stable supply of high-quality gas from its parent company [2][53]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Kunlun Energy is the largest natural gas terminal utilization enterprise in China, focusing on natural gas sales and comprehensive utilization, with operations covering 28 provinces and municipalities by the end of 2024 [17][26]. - The company achieved a natural gas sales volume of 54.2 billion cubic meters in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [17][26]. 2. Business Development - The natural gas sales business is expanding, with a significant focus on industrial gas sales, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 24.35% from 2018 to 2024 [2][58]. - The company has established two LNG receiving stations with a total unloading capacity of 13 million tons per year, contributing a pre-tax profit of 3.577 billion yuan in 2024, with a profit margin of 75% [3][72]. 3. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 6.649 billion yuan, 7.124 billion yuan, and 7.598 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.77 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.88 yuan [4][5]. - The report highlights a stable financial structure with a projected revenue of 187.046 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.46% [5][28]. 4. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Kunlun Energy benefits from a strong resource supply from its parent company, which allows it to maintain a competitive edge in purchasing costs compared to other gas companies [2][64]. - The company is gradually transitioning from upstream oil exploration to focus on natural gas terminal utilization, reducing its cyclical exposure [3][89].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached RMB 187,046 million, an increase of 5.8% compared to RMB 177,354 million in 2023[24] - Profit attributable to shareholders for the year was RMB 5,960 million, up from RMB 5,682 million in 2023, reflecting a growth of 4.9%[24] - Core profit before income tax expense was RMB 13,259 million, compared to RMB 13,101 million in 2023, indicating a year-on-year increase of 1.2%[24] - EBITDA for the year was RMB 17,640 million, slightly down from RMB 17,675 million in 2023[24] - The company reported a profit before income tax expense of RMB 12,635 million, a marginal increase from RMB 12,593 million in the previous year[24] - Net profit margin for 2024 is 5.08%, a decrease of 0.14% from 2023[28] - Return on total assets (ROA) improved to 6.63% in 2024, up from 6.55% in 2023[28] - Earnings per share (Basic) increased to 68.83 RMB cents in 2024, compared to 65.62 RMB cents in 2023[28] - Other net gains for the year were approximately RMB 1,520 million, up from RMB 903 million in 2023, primarily due to integration of gas stations and reduced exchange losses[98] Sales and Operations - Total natural gas sales volume was 54,170 million cubic meters, contributing to revenue of RMB 152,090 million from the natural gas sales business[6] - The company added 849,900 new users, bringing the cumulative total to 16,453,800 users across the country[6] - Sales volume of city gas reached 421 million cubic meters in 2024, an increase of 8.8% from 387 million cubic meters in 2023[33] - Total sales volume of natural gas reached 542 million cubic meters in 2024, a 9.9% increase from 493 million cubic meters in 2023[33] - The total number of city gas users exceeded 16.45 million, with retail volume increasing by 8.1% year-on-year and sales totaling 54.17 billion cubic meters[55] - Retail gas volumes in the northwestern and southwestern regions increased by 12% and 19.2%, respectively[59] - The total refueling volume for LNG ship refueling-at-sea business was 110,000 tonnes for the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 470%[59] Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets totaled RMB 86,153 million, while current assets were RMB 57,237 million as of December 31, 2024[24] - The company’s net assets increased to RMB 88,835 million, up from RMB 85,783 million in 2023[24] - Total assets as of December 31, 2024, were approximately RMB 143,390 million, a decrease of RMB 129 million or 0.1% from RMB 143,519 million as of December 31, 2023[115] - The Group had total borrowings of RMB 23,462 million as of December 31, 2024, with significant repayments due within one year increasing to RMB 9,133 million from RMB 5,464 million last year[123] Cost Management - Average finance cost decreased to 2.90% in 2024 from 3.33% in 2023, reflecting improved financing conditions[28] - Employee compensation costs for the year were approximately RMB 5,830 million, a decrease of 2.4% from RMB 5,970 million last year, with employee compensation accounting for 3.12% of operating revenue[102] - Depreciation, depletion, and amortization for the year were approximately RMB 5,160 million, representing an increase of 3.4% compared to RMB 4,992 million last year[103] - Other selling, general, and administrative expenses for the year were approximately RMB 3,491 million, a decrease of 4.5% from RMB 3,656 million last year, due to strict cost control measures[104] - Interest expenses for the year were approximately RMB 803 million, representing a decrease of 16.4% compared to RMB 960 million last year, attributed to a reduction in average financing costs to 2.9% from 3.3%[111] Strategic Initiatives - In 2025, the company aims to enhance marketing strategies and focus on green and low-carbon development to seize opportunities presented by the central government[76] - The company plans to increase the proportion of retail gas volume to 73% or above and aims to put 10 new projects into production[81] - The company will accelerate the transformation of the "Natural Gas+" intelligent integrated energy service model, focusing on low-carbon and zero-carbon initiatives[82] - The company aims to achieve a target of over 15% for low-carbon and zero-carbon stations in its operations[84] - The company continues to focus on five major strategies: innovation, green, market, capital, and low cost, to enhance operational efficiency and market competitiveness[86] Governance and Management - The Company has complied with all code provisions in Part 2 of the Corporate Governance Code during the year, except for the absence of certain independent non-executive directors at meetings[159] - The Board is collectively responsible for promoting the success of the Company by directing and supervising its affairs[165] - The day-to-day management and operation of the Company are delegated to the Chief Executive Officer and senior management, with periodic reviews of delegated functions[168] - The Company has established clear directions regarding the powers of management and the circumstances under which management must report back to the Board[174] - The Board has a necessary balance of skills and experience appropriate to the business requirements, ensuring effective independent judgment[176] Workforce and Diversity - The Group employed 24,809 employees globally as of December 31, 2024, a decrease from 27,138 employees in the previous year[132] - As of December 31, 2024, the total number of employees was 24,809, with male employees constituting 68.3% and female employees 31.7%[198] - The Board consists of six male Directors and one female Director, indicating a gender diversity ratio of approximately 14.3% female representation[189] - The Company has adopted a Board Diversity Policy to ensure a balanced representation of skills, experience, and gender among Board members[190] - The Company maintains a commitment to gender diversity in its workforce, opposing any form of discrimination[200]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the urban gas industry, highlighting its growth driven by economic expansion and decreasing natural gas costs, which leads to significant volume increases. The improvement in price differentials under residential pricing and the expansion into residential and commercial customer services are also emphasized [4][3]. Company Insights Kunlun Energy - **Strong Shareholder Background**: Kunlun Energy is backed by PetroChina, providing a comprehensive layout in the natural gas industry and significant synergy effects. Its main business segments include LNG processing, storage, and transportation, with natural gas sales contributing 65-69% of pre-tax profits [5][3]. - **Cost Advantages**: As PetroChina's sole natural gas terminal sales and management platform, Kunlun Energy benefits from lower resource costs among its member companies from 2017 to 2024, particularly in the central and western regions of China [5][3]. - **Financial Performance**: For 2024, Kunlun Energy expects a revenue growth of 5% and a net profit growth of 4.9%. The company anticipates a net profit growth rate of 5-6% in the coming years, with a stable dividend payout ratio of around 45% [6][3]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The projected PE ratio for 2025 is approximately 9 times, with a PB ratio of about 0.8 times and a dividend yield of around 5% [6][3]. Xinao Energy - **Business Growth**: Xinao Energy maintains a strong recommendation, with rapid growth in its smart home and comprehensive services segments, which have significantly increased their gross profit contribution, offsetting uncertainties in its main business [7][3]. - **Financial Projections**: The company expects economic profit growth of 6-7 percentage points from 2025 to 2026, with a projected PB of about 1.2 times and a PE of around 8 times for 2025, alongside a dividend yield exceeding 5% [8][3]. - **Privatization Plans**: Xinao Holdings aims to privatize Xinao Energy and relist it on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to provide a safety margin for the current stock price and future upside potential. The privatization is intended to achieve integrated operations across upstream resources, terminals, and downstream city gas operations [9][10]. - **Risks in Privatization**: The privatization plan faces risks including compliance with market regulations, valuation recognition, and potential discounts in A-shares, which require further analysis [11][3]. Performance in Public Utilities - Both Kunlun Energy and Xinao Energy demonstrate strong performance in the public utilities sector, characterized by robust free cash flow and cash holdings, positioning them as leading companies in the industry [12][3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Kunlun Energy (135 HK), with a target price of HKD 9.02, indicating a potential upside of 15.1% from the current closing price of HKD 7.84 [1][13]. Core Insights - The company aims for an aggressive retail gas growth target of 8% for 2025, supported by the addition of 8 city gas projects and an increase in commercial users [2][6]. - The financial outlook shows a slight decrease in core profit expectations for 2024, primarily due to lower-than-expected earnings from the LNG/upstream segment [6][7]. - The company maintains a healthy financial position with over RMB 20 billion in net cash by the end of 2024, and plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 45% in 2025 [6][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 177,354 million in 2023 to RMB 200,497 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,682 million in 2023 to RMB 6,948 million in 2025, with a corresponding EPS growth from RMB 0.71 to RMB 0.80 [3][14]. - The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.3 in 2023 to 9.1 in 2025, indicating potential valuation improvement [3][14]. Segment Analysis - Natural gas sales are expected to generate revenue of RMB 152,090 million in 2024, with a slight decline in profit margins due to increased competition [8][10]. - The LNG processing and storage segment is projected to see a modest increase in revenue, with processing volumes expected to rise by 7% year-on-year [6][9]. - The exploration and production segment is anticipated to face significant challenges, with a projected revenue drop of 81.2% in 2024 [8][10]. Operational Metrics - The company’s gas sales volume is expected to grow from 30.3 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 35.5 billion cubic meters in 2025, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8.3% [9][10]. - LNG terminal utilization is forecasted to remain stable at 88% in 2025, with processing capacity expected to increase [6][9]. - The gross margin for gas sales is projected to stabilize at RMB 0.47 per cubic meter through 2025, despite competitive pressures [6][9].

Financial Performance - Total natural gas sales volume increased by 9.91% to 54,170 million cubic meters in 2024 from 49,285 million cubic meters in 2023[4] - Revenue rose by 5.46% to RMB 187,046 million in 2024 compared to RMB 177,354 million in 2023[4] - Profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.89% to RMB 5,960 million in 2024 from RMB 5,682 million in 2023[7] - Basic earnings per share grew by 4.89% to RMB 68.83 in 2024, up from RMB 65.62 in 2023[7] - Core profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.50% to RMB 6,359 million in 2024 from RMB 6,144 million in 2023[4] - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 191,404 million, an increase from RMB 182,861 million in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 4.3%[17] - Revenue from external customers for 2024 was RMB 187,046 million, compared to RMB 177,354 million in 2023, indicating an increase of about 5.5%[17] - The profit before tax for 2024 was RMB 12,635 million, slightly up from RMB 12,593 million in 2023, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.3%[19] - Total revenue for 2024 reached RMB 187,046 million, an increase of 5.5% from RMB 177,354 million in 2023[21] - Natural gas sales contributed RMB 152,090 million, up from RMB 140,600 million, reflecting a growth of 8.6%[21] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 31.58 per share, an increase of 11.28% from RMB 28.38 per share in 2023[4] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of RMB 1,314 million for 2024, compared to no dividend in 2023[28] - The proposed final dividend for 2024 is RMB 0.1517 per share, totaling approximately RMB 1,314 million, compared to RMB 2,457 million for the 2023 final dividend[79] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is approximately 43%, an increase from 40% in 2023[79] - The company has established a three-year dividend distribution plan aiming for a payout ratio of 45% by the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025[70] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased slightly to RMB 143,390 million in 2024 from RMB 143,519 million in 2023[9] - Total equity increased to RMB 88,835 million in 2024, up from RMB 85,783 million in 2023[9] - Current liabilities decreased to RMB 35,676 million in 2024 from RMB 34,583 million in 2023[9] - Long-term borrowings decreased significantly to RMB 14,329 million in 2024 from RMB 19,027 million in 2023[9] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 25,224 million in 2024 from RMB 27,800 million in 2023, a decline of 9.3%[32] - The company reported an increase in investments in associates to RMB 8,567 million in 2024 from RMB 7,980 million in 2023[19] - The company’s segment assets for 2024 were RMB 127,236 million, down from RMB 128,001 million in 2023[19] Operational Efficiency - The company’s operating cash flow was robust at RMB 12.585 billion, indicating strong financial health and operational efficiency[40] - The company’s depreciation, amortization, and impairment expenses totaled RMB 5,160 million for 2024, compared to RMB 4,992 million in 2023, indicating an increase of about 3.4%[17] - The average annual interest rate for capitalized borrowing costs was 3.41% in 2024, down from 3.94% in 2023[23] - Interest expenses decreased to RMB 803 million in 2024 from RMB 960 million in 2023, a reduction of 16.4%[23] - Employee compensation costs were approximately RMB 5.83 billion, a decrease of 2.4% from RMB 5.97 billion last year, with employee compensation accounting for 3.12% of operating revenue[53] Customer and Market Growth - The total number of urban gas users surpassed 16.454 million, reflecting the company's expanding customer base[37] - The company reported a natural gas sales volume of 54.170 billion cubic meters, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.9%, with retail gas volume increasing by 8.1% to 32.757 billion cubic meters[40] - The LPG sales volume was 5.7838 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, while revenue from LPG sales decreased by 4.5% to RMB 25.601 billion[42] - The company’s LNG processing and storage operations demonstrated improved efficiency, with 14 LNG plants achieving a processing volume of 3.550 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%[43] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing joint ventures in the gas industry, with eight quality urban gas projects underway to enhance long-term growth prospects[40] - The company aims to enhance its marketing strategy and focus on green, safe, and efficient development while optimizing its service ecosystem[45] Miscellaneous - The company has no significant acquisitions or disposals during the year[63] - The company faces foreign exchange risks due to borrowings denominated in currencies other than RMB[61] - The company has no significant contingent liabilities that would adversely affect its financial position[67] - The company employed 24,809 employees globally as of December 31, 2024, a decrease from 27,138 employees in 2023[66] - The company pledged RMB 1,878 million in borrowings against natural gas receivables, up from RMB 94 million in 2023[62]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Kunlun Energy [10][106]. Core Views - In the current environment of declining interest rates and a focus on dividends due to national reforms, the decrease in oil and gas prices is expected to improve cost conditions, leading to a reevaluation and second pricing of Kunlun Energy as a dividend asset [4][10]. - Compared to its peers, Kunlun Energy has stable natural gas sales price differentials, a leading position in the central and western regions, the ability to accommodate the industrial transfer of high-energy-consuming enterprises, and a relatively strong capacity for dividend enhancement [4][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Kunlun Energy is one of the five major gas companies in China, with its market performance historically weaker than its peers due to significant impacts from oil price fluctuations [6][15]. - The company has shifted its focus from upstream exploration and production to downstream natural gas sales, reducing its cyclical attributes and enhancing its utility characteristics [6][15]. Strategic Positioning - The company has established a comprehensive natural gas industry chain, focusing on terminal natural gas sales, LPG sales, LNG processing and storage, and exploration and production [7][28]. - Kunlun Energy has expanded its natural gas sales business, benefiting from internal synergies, with LNG receiving station load rates exceeding industry averages [7][32]. Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment is improving, and the "dual carbon" strategy is driving domestic natural gas consumption growth [8][50]. - Kunlun Energy has a strong presence in the central and western natural gas markets, with significant sales regions including Xinjiang, Yunnan, Gansu, and Hubei, which will benefit from the industrial transfer of high-energy-consuming enterprises [8][52]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 59.47 billion, CNY 62.93 billion, and CNY 66.08 billion from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.69, CNY 0.73, and CNY 0.76 [10][106]. - The report highlights that Kunlun Energy's dividend capacity is relatively strong compared to its peers, supported by a good asset structure and cash flow [9][90]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that Kunlun Energy's valuation may improve due to its stable natural gas sales price differentials and strong dividend potential, especially as the company focuses on enhancing shareholder returns [9][90]. - The anticipated capital expenditure reduction and improved asset structure further support the company's ability to increase dividends [9][90].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 9.08, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of HKD 7.77 [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the warm winter has slightly impacted retail gas sales, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for Kunlun Energy. The core earnings for 2024-2026 have been revised down by 5.4%, 2.9%, and 3.6% respectively [2][5]. - The company is expected to see a retail gas sales growth of 8.6% for the full year of 2024, despite a year-on-year decline in natural gas demand starting November 2024 [5]. - The LNG receiving station's utilization rate for 2024 has been adjusted down by 1 percentage point to 89% due to a projected 1% year-on-year decline in natural gas imports [5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Kunlun Energy are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 188,386 million - 2025E: RMB 202,300 million - 2026E: RMB 215,037 million [4][14]. - Net profit estimates have been revised to: - 2024E: RMB 6,466 million - 2025E: RMB 7,216 million - 2026E: RMB 7,883 million, reflecting decreases of 5.4%, 2.9%, and 3.6% respectively [4][14]. Operational Data - The forecasted gas sales volume is expected to grow as follows: - 2024E: 32.9 billion cubic meters - 2025E: 35.9 billion cubic meters - 2026E: 38.8 billion cubic meters, with growth rates of 8.6%, 9.0%, and 8.1% respectively [6]. - The LNG processing volume is projected to increase to 3.27 billion cubic meters in 2024, with a utilization rate of 52% [6]. Dividend Policy - The management has set a dividend payout target of 43% for 2024, increasing to 45% in 2025, with expected dividend yields of 4.4% and 5.1% respectively, which remains attractive [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of value investing and highlights Kunlun Energy (KLYCY) as a strong value stock based on its financial metrics and Zacks Rank [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Kunlun Energy (KLYCY) currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and has an "A" grade in the Value category, indicating strong potential for value investors [4]. - The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 10.57, which is lower than the industry average P/E of 13.08, suggesting it may be undervalued [4]. - Over the past 52 weeks, KLYCY's Forward P/E has fluctuated between a high of 10.74 and a low of 6.76, with a median of 8.87 [4]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - KLYCY has a P/B ratio of 0.79, which is attractive compared to the industry average P/B of 1.32, indicating a favorable valuation [5]. - The P/B ratio for KLYCY has ranged from a high of 0.84 to a low of 0.59 over the past year, with a median of 0.70 [5]. - These valuation metrics suggest that Kunlun Energy is likely being undervalued, making it an appealing option for value investors [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a 6-month target price of HKD 9.61, compared to a current price of HKD 8.32 [3][28]. Core Insights - The company, Kunlun Energy, is the only platform enterprise in China engaged in natural gas terminal sales and comprehensive utilization, benefiting from the trend of industrial transfer to the central and western regions of China [4][27]. - The company has a strong financial position with low debt levels and sufficient cash on hand, and it has announced a three-year dividend plan with increasing payout ratios [26][28]. - The natural gas sales segment accounts for nearly 80% of total revenue, with a significant focus on industrial and commercial customers [27][22]. Company Overview - Kunlun Energy was established as a red-chip company under the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and has transitioned from oil and gas exploration to focus on natural gas terminal sales since 2008 [2][9]. - The company operates 284 urban gas projects across 30 provinces, with an annual natural gas sales volume of 50 billion cubic meters [4][27]. - The shareholder structure includes CNPC holding 56.05% and Sinopec holding 1.48% [3][11]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total market capitalization of HKD 72.04 billion and an average trading volume of HKD 111.92 million [3]. - Revenue from natural gas sales is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12% over three years, with the company actively expanding its customer base [22][27]. - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 6,060 million, RMB 6,484 million, and RMB 6,927 million, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.70, 0.75, and 0.80 [28][31]. Business Segments - The company's revenue is divided into four main segments: natural gas sales (80%), LPG sales (15%), LNG processing and storage (5%), and exploration and production (1%) [27][41]. - The LNG processing and storage segment has the highest and most stable profit margins, while the natural gas sales segment shows consistent growth [20][27]. Market Position - Kunlun Energy is positioned as a leading natural gas distributor in China, with a significant market share in urban gas distribution [22][27]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for natural gas in China, projected to grow significantly in the coming years [76][79].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 10.6, indicating a potential upside of 30% from the current price [3][29]. Core Insights - The company's LNG processing and storage business has shown positive revenue growth, achieving RMB 5.662 billion in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.14%, with a pre-tax profit of RMB 1.648 billion, up 22.89% [2][27]. - The company has a three-year dividend distribution plan from 2023 to 2025, with the annual payout ratio expected to gradually increase to 45% [2][28]. - The company aims for an LNG receiving station load factor of 90% for the year, indicating a positive outlook for the LNG industry chain [2][27]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved natural gas sales of 26.438 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 10.55%, with retail gas volume reaching 16.302 billion cubic meters, up 10.25% [6][17]. - The average production load factor for the company's 14 operational plants was 58.4%, an increase of 19.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][27]. Dividend Policy - The company declared an interim dividend of 16.41 cents in H1 2024, with a payout ratio of 43%, reflecting stable profit growth and significant potential for future dividend increases [2][28]. Market Position - The company operates in four main segments: natural gas sales, LPG sales, LNG processing and storage, and exploration and production, with a user base exceeding 16 million across 31 provinces in China [6][17].