Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has revised down its net profit forecasts for Kunlun Energy for the years 2025 to 2027 by 6.2%, 7.3%, and 9% respectively, due to slowing retail natural gas sales growth and a slowdown in LNG processing, which cannot be fully offset by the increase in LPG sales [1] Summary by Category Company Analysis - The target price for Kunlun Energy has been reduced from HKD 8.7 to HKD 8.4 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The negative impact on Kunlun Energy's performance is attributed to the slowdown in retail natural gas sales and LNG processing [1] Industry Insights - Citigroup's preferred choice in the industry is New Hope Energy, highlighting the potential upside from its privatization [1]

中金发布研报称，由于昆仑能源(00135)分销与贸易板块盈利存不确定性，下调2025/2026净利润 9.9%/10.1%至60.19亿元/62.05亿元。当前股价对应2025/2026年10.1x/9.6x P/E。维持跑赢行业评级，综合 考虑盈利预测调整及公司中长期派息潜力，该行下调目标价5.9%至8.00港元，对应2025/202610.5x/10.1x P/E，较当前股价有4.6%的上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 1H25业绩低于该行预期 公司公布1H25业绩：收入975.4亿元，YoY+5%;归母净利润31.6亿元，YoY-4%，低于该行预期，主因部 分老旧管网改造已于2024年结束，应确认补贴减少导致1H25其他收益净额同比减少49%至3.8亿元。 1H25公司天然气销售量同比+10%至291亿方，其中分销与贸易气量同比+22.6%至124亿方，零售天然气 量同比+2.2%至167亿方(工业气量+8.0%YoY)，零售气价差0.44元/方，YoY-0.01元/方，新增用户39.9万 户，YoY-11.2%，接收站平均负荷率86.8%，YoY+1.4ppt;LNG工厂平均负荷率57.1%，YoY-1 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the net profit forecasts for Kunlun Energy for 2025 and 2026 by 9.9% and 10.1% to CNY 6.019 billion and CNY 6.205 billion respectively, due to uncertainties in the distribution and trading segment's profitability [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 performance was below expectations, with revenue of CNY 97.54 billion (YoY +5%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 3.16 billion (YoY -4%), primarily due to a reduction in subsidies leading to a 49% YoY decrease in other income [2] - Natural gas sales volume increased by 10% YoY to 29.1 billion cubic meters, with distribution and trading gas volume up 22.6% YoY to 12.4 billion cubic meters [2] - Retail natural gas volume grew by 2.2% YoY to 16.7 billion cubic meters, with an average retail gas price difference of CNY 0.44 per cubic meter, down CNY 0.01 YoY [2] Group 2: Operational Guidance - The company adjusted several operational guidance metrics for 2025, including retail gas volume growth to +5% YoY (previously +8% YoY) and LNG processing volume to +0-2% YoY (previously +7% YoY), reflecting weak downstream gas demand [3] - The company maintained its target for new user additions at 600,000 to 700,000 for the year and an average LNG receiving station load factor of 85-90% [3] Group 3: Profitability and Dividend Policy - The profitability of the distribution and trading business faces downward pressure, primarily due to weaker LNG spot prices impacting natural gas sales profitability [4] - Despite a slight decline in performance, the company maintained a modest increase in dividends, with potential for a long-term increase in the payout ratio to 55-60% due to strong cash flow and cash reserves [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunlun Energy [2][7][17] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 97.543 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.36% to 3.161 billion RMB, slightly below expectations [7] - Natural gas sales volume increased by 10.05% to 29.095 billion m³, driven by a significant rise in industrial gas consumption [7] - The average load rate of LNG receiving stations improved to 86.8%, with a substantial increase in LNG loading volume by 75.5% [7] - The company plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 45% for 2025, with a current dividend yield of approximately 4.4% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 177.354 billion RMB (2023), 187.046 billion RMB (2024), 193.901 billion RMB (2025E), 204.563 billion RMB (2026E), and 213.881 billion RMB (2027E) [6][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.682 billion RMB (2023), 5.960 billion RMB (2024), 5.980 billion RMB (2025E), 6.254 billion RMB (2026E), and 6.573 billion RMB (2027E) [6][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.66 RMB (2023), 0.69 RMB (2024), 0.69 RMB (2025E), 0.72 RMB (2026E), and 0.76 RMB (2027E) [6][8] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025-2027 is estimated at 10.2, 9.8, and 9.3 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported lower-than-expected performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 97.5 billion yuan (up 5.0% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.16 billion yuan (down 4.4% year-on-year) [1][4] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.166 yuan per share, representing a payout ratio of 45.5% [1] - The long-term value reassessment of the company is viewed positively, with expectations for dual growth in earnings and dividends [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's natural gas retail volume increased by 2.2% year-on-year to 16.67 billion cubic meters, with industrial volume up 8.0% but commercial and residential volumes down by 1.5% and 3.6% respectively [2] - The average selling price difference for natural gas decreased by 1 cent year-on-year to 0.44 yuan, influenced by changes in sales structure and rising contract gas prices in Q2 [2] - The tax pre-profit for the natural gas sales segment decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, primarily due to declining distribution and connection gross margins [2] LNG Segment - The company's LNG receiving station average load factor was 86.8% (up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year) in 1H25, with expectations to maintain an average load factor of 90% from 2025 to 2027 [3] - The LNG segment achieved a tax pre-profit of 140 million yuan in 1H25, with expectations for a year-on-year profit increase of 5.6% in 2025 [3] Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with net profit estimates reduced by 8.0%, 10.4%, and 13.2% to 6.15 billion, 6.49 billion, and 6.84 billion yuan respectively [4] - The target price has been lowered to 8.58 HKD from a previous 9.21 HKD, based on an 11x PE for 2025E [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expectation of over 20% relative return within the next six months [6][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 97.543 billion for the first half of 2025, an increase of RMB 4.621 billion or 4.97% year-on-year. However, the profit before tax decreased by RMB 5.12 billion or 7.06% to RMB 6.737 billion, and the profit attributable to shareholders fell by RMB 1.44 billion or 4.36% to RMB 3.161 billion. The interim dividend was set at RMB 0.166 per share, slightly up from RMB 0.164 per share in the same period last year [1]. Sales Performance - The total natural gas sales volume reached 29.095 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.05%. Retail gas volume was 16.666 billion cubic meters, up 2.23%. The breakdown shows industrial gas volume at 12.47 billion cubic meters (+8%), commercial gas at 1.693 billion cubic meters (-1.5%), residential gas at 2.014 billion cubic meters (-3.6%), and gas station sales at 0.488 billion cubic meters (-48.5%). Distribution and trade saw a significant increase of 22.6% to 12.429 billion cubic meters. The average sales price of natural gas was RMB 2.77 per cubic meter, down RMB 0.1 from the previous year [2]. Processing and Transportation Performance - The LNG processing and transportation segment generated revenue of RMB 4.371 billion, a slight decrease of 1.58%. However, profit before tax increased by 11.41% to RMB 1.836 billion. The LNG plants achieved a record profit of RMB 140 million, with a 25% reduction in maintenance cycles. The total LNG gasification and loading volume at the receiving stations reached 7.899 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.66% [3]. Oil and LPG Sales - The average selling price of crude oil decreased from USD 67.77 per barrel to USD 62.88 per barrel, leading to a 15.91% drop in crude oil sales revenue to RMB 0.74 billion. LPG sales volume increased by 4.87% to 3.0684 million tons, with revenue rising by 1.03% to RMB 13.02 billion. The profit before tax for the LPG segment decreased by 3.03% to RMB 544 million [4]. Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - The company effectively controlled costs, reducing other sales, general, and administrative expenses to approximately RMB 1.121 billion, down 8.86% from RMB 1.230 billion in the previous year. Employee compensation costs also decreased by 10.07% to approximately RMB 2.850 billion. Capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was RMB 1.926 billion, a significant decline of 31.6% [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to a slowdown in natural gas demand growth and a decline in international oil prices, the profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down to RMB 6.229 billion, RMB 6.696 billion, and RMB 7.213 billion, respectively, from previous estimates of RMB 6.414 billion, RMB 7.011 billion, and RMB 7.656 billion [6].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has downgraded Kunlun Energy's (00135) retail gas volume growth forecast for the year from 8% to 5%, along with a reduction in natural gas profit predictions for the period [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - The forecast for after-tax net profit for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 has been lowered by 6% to 7% [1] - The target price for Kunlun Energy has been adjusted from HKD 8.7 to HKD 8.3, maintaining a "Neutral" rating due to limited growth potential [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, after-tax net profit decreased by 4% year-on-year to RMB 3.2 billion, aligning with the bank's expectations, which may disappoint some investors who anticipated flat year-on-year results [1] - The interim dividend increased by 1% year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 45%, meeting expectations [1] - The pre-tax profit from natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sales fell by 10% and 3% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to a decline in unit gross margins and weak retail gas volume growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has downgraded Kunlun Energy's retail gas volume growth forecast for the year from 8% to 5%, citing limited growth potential [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Kunlun Energy's net profit after tax for the first half of the year decreased by 4% year-on-year to 3.2 billion RMB, aligning with the bank's expectations, which may disappoint some investors who anticipated flat year-on-year results [1] - The interim dividend increased by 1% year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 45%, meeting expectations [1] Group 2: Profitability and Sales - The pre-tax profit from natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sales declined by 10% and 3% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to a decrease in unit gross margins and weak retail gas volume growth [1] Group 3: Forecast Adjustments - The forecast for net profit after tax for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 has been reduced by 6% to 7% [1] - The target price for Kunlun Energy has been lowered from 8.7 HKD to 8.3 HKD, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

消息面上，8月19日，昆仑能源公布2025年中期业绩，实现天然气销量290.95亿立方米，同比增加 10.05%。收入975.43亿元，同比增长4.97%；公司股东应占溢利31.61亿元，同比减少4.36%；每股盈利 36.51分，每股中期股息16.6分。 公告称，公司积极应对燃气行业的发展格局变化，与其他燃气企业广泛开展合资合作，不断落地新的城 燃项目，为公司长远发展拓宽空间。上半年新增5个城燃项目，分布在内蒙古、山东和贵州3个省份。实 现天然气销量290.95亿立方米，同比增长10.05%，其中零售气量166.66亿立方米，同比增长2.23%。新 增用户39.88万户，其中居民用户38.98万户、工商业用户0.90万户，累计用户达1,685.26万户。 上半年，天然气销售业务实现收入人民币800.78亿元，同比增长6.06%；除所得税前溢利人民币44.77亿 元，同比减少10.55%。 昆仑能源(00135)绩后跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.18%，报4.05港元，成交额1.16亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Energy's stock dropped over 4% following the release of its mid-year results for 2025, indicating market reaction to the company's performance despite some growth in gas sales and revenue [1] Financial Performance - Natural gas sales reached 29.095 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 10.05% [1] - Revenue amounted to 97.543 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.97% [1] - Shareholder profit was 3.161 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.36% compared to the previous year [1] - Earnings per share were 0.3651 yuan, with an interim dividend of 0.166 yuan per share [1] Business Development - The company is actively responding to changes in the gas industry landscape by engaging in joint ventures and launching new city gas projects [1] - Five new city gas projects were added in the first half of the year, located in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Guizhou [1] - The total number of users reached 16.8526 million, with an increase of 398,800 new users, including 389,800 residential users and 9,000 commercial users [1] Sales and Profitability - The natural gas sales business generated revenue of 80.078 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.06% [1] - Profit before tax was 4.477 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 10.55% year-on-year [1]