巴克莱认为，市场正在重演历史性的恐慌，但这次可能是错误的。 据追风交易台，2月13日，巴克莱分析师Raimo Lenschow团队在最新研报中指出，投资者目前对生成式AI（GenAI）的反应是基于"最坏情况假 设"——即认为传统软件公司的终值将归零。这种恐慌与10年前亚马逊AWS崛起时市场对软件行业的"死亡判决"如出一辙。 历史数据表明，灭绝并未发生。 尽管AWS确实夺取了市场份额，但没有一家成熟的软件巨头因此破产。相反，微软、Salesforce等巨头通过进化 实现了数倍甚至数十倍的市值增长。对于投资者而言，当前的无差别抛售（Software Sell-off）创造了巨大的错配机会。GenAI将扩大而非单纯取 代软件市场，那些拥有核心记录系统和特定领域护城河的公司被错误定价了。 似曾相识的"末日论"：从AWS到GenAI 目前软件板块的投资者情绪正处于一个极端独特的时刻。市场普遍认为GenAI将从根本上改变世界，这导致了一个简单粗暴的投资逻辑：买入AI 新贵，做空一切传统软件。 让我们用数据说话。回顾过去10年，AWS确实取得了巨大的成功，占据了相当大的市场份额，许多AWS产品（如Redshift、Hado ...

Key Takeaways MongoDB offers a flexible, developer-focused database for cloud-native and AI apps.Datadog provides observability tools to monitor performance across cloud environments.MDB trades at a lower forward sales multiple than Datadog, offering better value.MongoDB (MDB) and Datadog (DDOG) are established cloud software providers positioned at the core of modern enterprise technology infrastructure. MongoDB offers a flexible, developer-focused database platform that powers operational and AI-driven ap ...

Market Analysis by covering: MongoDB, Cloudflare Inc, Applovin Corp. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...

Core Insights - The Zacks Internet Software industry is experiencing volatility due to fears of AI disrupting the traditional SaaS space, alongside heightened geopolitical risks and tariff uncertainties. However, companies like MongoDB, Digital Turbine, and 8x8 are benefiting from increased demand for digital transformation and cloud solutions driven by the need for remote working and AI-powered applications [1] Industry Overview - The Zacks Internet Software industry includes companies that provide application performance monitoring, infrastructure and application software, DevOps deployment, and security software. The primary revenue sources are subscription and advertising, targeting various end markets such as banking, education, and healthcare [2] Trends Shaping the Industry - **Adoption of SaaS Grows**: The industry benefits from the demand for digital transformation, with SaaS providing a flexible and cost-effective delivery method for applications, enhancing customer satisfaction and retention [3] - **Pay-As-You-Go Model Gains Traction**: The customer-centric approach allows users to scale offerings according to needs, with the subscription model ensuring recurring revenues and affordability for small and medium-sized businesses [4] - **Ongoing Transition to Cloud Creates Opportunities**: The need for secure cloud platforms amid rising cyberattacks drives demand for web-based cybersecurity software and performance management tools [5] Industry Performance - The Zacks Internet Software industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 139, placing it in the bottom 43% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating dull near-term prospects [6][7] - The industry has underperformed the S&P 500 and the broader Computer and Technology sector, returning 16.9% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's 17.2% and the sector's 23.1% [10] Current Valuation - The industry is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 4.09X, lower than the S&P 500's 5.30X and the sector's 6.8X, with historical trading ranging from 4.09X to 5.99X over the past five years [13] Company Highlights - **MongoDB**: This company has seen a 29% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 of fiscal 2026, adding over 5,000 customers in the past two quarters. Its shares have appreciated 29% in the past year, with a consensus estimate for fiscal 2027 earnings at $5.61 per share [17][18][19] - **Digital Turbine**: Expected revenues for fiscal 2026 are projected between $553 million and $558 million, with shares dropping 24% in the past year. The consensus estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings is 36 cents per share [22][23] - **8x8**: This company has experienced nearly 60% year-over-year growth in usage-based offerings, with shares down 19% over the past year. The consensus estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings is also 36 cents per share [26][27]

9 February 2026 | 5:26AM EST Equity Research AMERICAS TECHNOLOGY: SOFTWARE Addressing AI Disruption Debate Across SMID Coverage Software valuations have reset meaningfully as AI disruption concerns have moved to the center of the investment debate. In this note, we address those concerns directly for MongoDB, Rubrik, Nutanix and Procore – by applying a clear, repeatable AI Impact Framework to assess where AI is most likely to create risk versus opportunity. We evaluate each company across six focus dimensio ...

The price trend for MongoDB (MDB) has been bearish lately and the stock has lost 7.3% over the past week. However, the formation of a hammer chart pattern in its last trading session indicates that the stock could witness a trend reversal soon, as bulls might have gained significant control over the price to help it find support.The formation of a hammer pattern is considered a technical indication of nearing a bottom with likely subsiding of selling pressure. But this is not the only factor that makes a bu ...

Core Insights - The market capitalization of SaaS, data, and software investment companies has evaporated by approximately $300 billion due to the release of an AI product, rather than disappointing earnings or macroeconomic shocks [1] - The IGV software index has dropped about 30% from its peak in late September, with significant declines in stock prices for major companies like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Adobe, and Workday, which fell around 7%, and Intuit, which plummeted nearly 11% [2] - The average expected price-to-earnings ratio for software companies has sharply decreased from about 39 times to approximately 21 times in just a few months [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The crisis in the SaaS sector has been ongoing for several months, with a recent acceleration in the speed of market reactions [2] - Short sellers have profited over $20 billion by betting against traditional SaaS businesses, indicating a significant loss of confidence in the sector [2] - The core assumption being challenged is the sustainability of traditional SaaS growth models, which have been supported by predictable recurring revenues and high switching costs [3][4] Group 2: AI Impact - AI is fundamentally testing the logic behind traditional SaaS models, as modern AI systems can replace many human workflows across various applications [6] - Investors are increasingly concerned that the growth of many SaaS companies may be rapidly supplanted by lower-cost, AI-driven solutions [8] - The emergence of AI-driven workflows is seen as a significant threat to the high-growth, low-profit SaaS development path, leading to a loss of market trust [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - High-profile figures like Chamath Palihapitiya and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella have expressed that the SaaS model is becoming obsolete, predicting a shift towards AI-driven platforms [12][9] - Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of the decade, AI agents will capture a disproportionate share of profits in the software market, with over 60% of software economic benefits potentially realized through agent systems rather than traditional SaaS services [15][18] - The transition from static applications to adaptive systems is expected to weaken the economic benefits of traditional software, although overall market growth is anticipated [18][19] Group 4: Investment Sentiment - The private equity and credit markets are reacting to the changing landscape, with investors recognizing that continued funding for short-term growth may not yield returns [8][20] - The prevailing investment logic in the software industry, based on predictable revenues and low customer churn, is being recalibrated in light of AI advancements [20] - MongoDB's CEO emphasizes that true platforms, rather than mere products, will endure in the evolving software landscape, highlighting the importance of adaptability and speed in technology transitions [21][26]

Core Insights - The market capitalization of SaaS, data, and software companies has evaporated by approximately $300 billion due to the release of an AI product, rather than poor earnings or macroeconomic shocks [1] - The IGV software index has dropped about 30% from its peak in late September, with significant declines in stock prices for major companies like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Adobe, and Intuit [2] - The average expected price-to-earnings ratio for software companies has plummeted from around 39 times to approximately 21 times in just a few months [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The crisis in the SaaS sector has been ongoing for months, with a recent acceleration in the speed of market reactions [2] - Short sellers have profited over $20 billion by betting against traditional SaaS businesses, indicating a loss of confidence in the sustainability of their growth models [2] - The core assumption that has been challenged is the sustainability of traditional SaaS growth models in the face of AI advancements [4] Group 2: AI Impact - AI is fundamentally testing the logic behind traditional SaaS models, as modern AI systems can replace many human workflows across various applications [6] - Investors are increasingly concerned that the growth of many SaaS companies may be rapidly supplanted by lower-cost, AI-driven solutions [8] - The shift towards AI-driven workflows is seen as a significant threat to the traditional SaaS business model, which relied on high growth with low or no profitability [7] Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Notable figures like Chamath Palihapitiya and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella have expressed that the era of SaaS is over, emphasizing a shift towards AI-driven platforms [11][7] - The software industry's profit pool is expected to shift towards AI agents, with predictions that by 2030, over 60% of software economic benefits may come from agent systems rather than traditional SaaS services [15] - The transition is not indicative of a shrinking market but rather a reallocation of economic benefits from static applications to adaptive systems [18] Group 4: Future Outlook - Companies must embrace AI agents and integrate them into their business models to remain competitive in the evolving landscape [14] - The historical reliance on predictable revenue and low customer churn in the software industry is being reassessed as AI changes the dynamics of customer engagement and product value [20] - The future of software will likely focus on platforms rather than individual products, as platforms can offer greater integration and customer stickiness [22][27]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets have started 2026 positively, with all three major stock indexes trading in positive territory, supported by strong domestic economic fundamentals, solid fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, accommodative Fed policies, and resolution of trade issues [1] Investment Recommendations - Investing in growth stocks is recommended for February, focusing on stocks with aggressive earnings or revenue growth to enhance portfolio performance [2] Growth Stock Picks - Five recommended growth stocks include Micron Technology Inc. (MU), MongoDB Inc. (MDB), Amphenol Corp. (APH), Ciena Corp. (CIEN), and Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX), all with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and a Growth Score of A [3] Micron Technology Inc. (MU) - Micron is a leader in AI infrastructure, driven by strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) solutions, with record sales in the data center market and increasing HBM adoption boosting DRAM revenues [6][10] - The growing adoption of AI servers is reshaping the DRAM market, increasing demand for high-capacity DIMMs and low-power server DRAM, with Micron capitalizing on this trend through a strong product roadmap, including HBM4 set for production in 2026 [7] - Micron's diversification strategy has stabilized its revenue base by shifting focus from volatile consumer electronics to more resilient sectors like automotive and enterprise IT [8] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Micron are 96.1% and over 100%, respectively, for the current year ending August 2026, with a recent earnings estimate improvement of 0.1% [10] MongoDB Inc. (MDB) - MongoDB has expanded its Atlas platform beyond database management into analytics, targeting agile development and modern workloads to leverage the generative AI trend [11] - The company has seen continued platform adoption across enterprises and startups, with a focus on larger enterprises enhancing deal sizes and sales efficiency [12] - Recent product initiatives include new AI embedding models and integrations with tools like GitHub Copilot, strengthening its position in AI-driven applications [13] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for MongoDB are 17.8% and 17.2%, respectively, for the current year ending January 2027, with a recent earnings estimate improvement of 0.2% [14] Amphenol Corp. (APH) - Amphenol benefits from a diversified business model, with a strong portfolio in high-technology interconnect products, commanding an estimated 33% market share in AI-powered data center interconnects [15] - Increased spending on defense technologies and strong demand across Commercial Air, Industrial, and IT Datacom sectors support top-line growth [16] - Rising AI workloads and cloud infrastructure upgrades are driving demand for high-speed interconnects, with steady growth expected in the Interconnect and Sensor Systems segment [17] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Amphenol are 34.9% and 29.3%, respectively, for the current year, with a recent earnings estimate improvement of 6.4% [18] Ciena Corp. (CIEN) - Ciena's fiscal fourth-quarter showed a 20% year-over-year revenue increase and 69.5% EPS growth, driven by AI-led demand from cloud and service provider customers [19] - Networking Platforms revenues rose 22% to $1.05 billion, with strong growth in Optical and Routing and Switching segments [20] - Ciena has raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to $5.7-$6.1 billion, reflecting nearly 24% growth at the midpoint, driven by demand from cloud and AI infrastructure [21] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Ciena are 24.1% and over 100%, respectively, for the current year ending October 2026, with a recent earnings estimate improvement of 20.2% [23] Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) - Seagate is experiencing strong execution amid rising cloud and AI demand, with a focus on balancing performance and cost efficiency in modern data centers [24] - High-capacity nearline production is booked through 2026, with long-term contracts providing strong demand visibility through 2027 [25] - Seagate's aerial density roadmap offers a competitive advantage in hard drives, aligning with the growing demand for AI-driven data storage solutions [26] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Seagate are 24.6% and 55.9%, respectively, for the current year ending June 2026, with a recent earnings estimate improvement of 11.8% [28]

图片来源：No Priors Z Highlights: CJDesai 现任 MongoDB 首席执行官，此前曾长期担任 ServiceNow 总裁兼首席产品官，并曾在 Cloudflare 等顶尖科技公司出任 要职。他是硅谷公认的顶尖产品战略专家，在推动企业级软件架构转型、平台化战略及 AI 与数据基础设施融合方面拥有卓 越的领导力和深厚的行业洞见。本场对话发生于 No Priors 播客 2026 年 1 月 22 日的首场直播活动，由知名风险投资人 Sarah Guo 主持，核心探讨 AI 浪潮下 SaaS 的价值重构与平台护城河。 软件价值的拷问：AI时代如何定义护城河？ Sarah Guo：大家好，我非常高兴能和大家一起在这里，也很高兴能和我的老朋友CJ同台交流。我知道大家今天在大会上已 经听到了很多发布和分享，但对我个人来说，能有机会和CJ一起从更宏观的视角聊一聊软件的未来、SaaS正在发生什么变 化，以及价值将会出现在哪里，让我感到非常兴奋。这些问题在我作为一名风险投资人的日常工作中都非常重要。 所以，CJ，你曾经在多家平台型企业软件公司和基础设施公司工作过，最近也成为了MongoDB的CEO ...