这周二，SaaS、数据和软件类投资公司的市值蒸发了约 3000 亿美元。这并非因为盈利不及预期或宏观经济冲击，而是因为一款人工智能产品发布。 这场危机已经持续数月。等到市场做出反应时，IGV 软件指数已较 9 月下旬的峰值下跌了约 30%。上周发生变化的不是方向，而是速度。 几家根基深厚的企业软件公司股价在一天之内大幅下跌。Salesforce、ServiceNow、Adobe 和 Workday 的股价均下跌约 7%。Intuit 的股价更是暴跌近 11%。与此同时，整个行业的估值倍数也急剧下降。软件公司的平均预期市盈率在短短几个月内从约 39 倍暴跌至约 21 倍。做空者已通过押注传统 SaaS 业务在 2026 年获利超过 200 亿美元，并且还在加倍下注。 除非核心假设被打破，否则市场不会抹去如此巨大的价值。 1 纳德拉判断 SaaS 已死 在过去二十年的大部分时间里，企业软件受益于异常稳定的经济形势。软件开发成本高昂，转换成本也很高，数据都存储在专有系统中。 一旦某个平台成为记录系统，它便会一直占据这一位置。这种信念支撑着从公开市场估值倍数到私募股权收购再到私募信贷承销等方方面面。经常性收入 被视为 ...

整理｜冬梅 这周二，SaaS、数据和软件类投资公司的市值蒸发了约 3000 亿美元。这并非因为盈利不及预期或宏观经济冲击，而是因为一款人工智能产品发布。 这场危机已经持续数月。等到市场做出反应时，IGV 软件指数已较 9 月下旬的峰值下跌了约 30%。上周发生变化的不是方向，而是速度。 几家根基深厚的企业软件公司股价在一天之内大幅下跌。Salesforce、ServiceNow、Adobe 和 Workday 的股价均下跌约 7%。Intuit 的股价更是暴跌近 11%。与此同时，整个行业的估值倍数也急剧下降。软件公司的平均预期市盈率在短短几个月内从约 39 倍暴跌至约 21 倍。做空者已通过押注传统 SaaS 业务在 2026 年获利超过 200 亿美元，并且还在加倍下注。 除非核心假设被打破，否则市场不会抹去如此巨大的价值。 刚刚打破的假设是传统 SaaS 增长模式的可持续性。 1纳德拉判断 SaaS 已死 在过去二十年的大部分时间里，企业软件受益于异常稳定的经济形势。软件开发成本高昂，转换成本也很高，数据都存储在专有系统中。 一旦某个平台成为记录系统，它便会一直占据这一位置。这种信念支撑着从公开市场估值 ...

这就非常有意思了。 就在今天（2026年2月6日），Anthropic和OpenAI跟约好了一样，短短20分钟里先后扔出了两枚深水炸 弹，那就是，Claude Opus 4.6和GPT-5.3 Codex。 要把两家的发布拆成「它们到底在强化啥能力」来看，差别其实特别明显。 没有预热、没有铺垫，甚至没有留给市场消化的时间。这是一场极其明确的 「模型遭遇战」。 01 这场正面硬刚，清清楚楚标志着AI竞赛，已经从过去两年的「聊天对话能力竞赛」，正式切换到了一 个全新阶段，Agent自治时代。 说重点，Anthropic那边，核心三个点：可控的Agent行为边界、任务拆解和执行的稳定性，还有更明确 的人类监督和回滚机制。 它们没把Agent吹成「什么都能干」的全能选手，重点就强调一点：Agent必须在清晰的规则、权限和审 计框架下运行。 而OpenAI给出的方向，则明显更激进： 更强的自主规划能力、多步骤跨工具的持续执行，还有模型要对复杂目标负全责。说白了，信号很直 接，Agent能接管一整个任务流程，从看懂目标到最后交出结果。 总结一句就是，Anthropic在强调「别出错」，OpenAI在赌「先跑起来」。 这就 ...

Core Insights - Clawdbot, now known as OpenClaw, has become a phenomenon, assisting investors in project discovery and transactions, with a focus on personal agents and local agents as key trends for 2026 [2] - A closed-door event hosted by Founder Park gathered over 130 AI entrepreneurs from various sectors to discuss Clawdbot's capabilities and its potential impact on the AI landscape [2] Group 1: AI Evolution and Capabilities - Clawdbot represents a significant breakthrough in AI autonomy, allowing for self-iteration and skill creation without boundaries, enhancing its ability to evolve [4][5] - The platform's ability to autonomously explore tasks every four hours contributes to its proactive nature, enabling it to perceive environmental changes and create new skills [4] - Clawdbot's rapid evolution has led to a level of sophistication that is both impressive and somewhat alarming, indicating its potential to self-evolve effectively [5] Group 2: Skills as the New Applications - The emergence of Skills as a new form of applications signifies a shift in user interaction, where users can engage with products through various IM platforms without needing to open specific apps [7][8] - The future of product value will hinge on the successful execution of Skills, with monetization focusing on individual Skill interactions rather than entire app subscriptions [12] - Skills are expected to become standardized across platforms, leading to a competitive landscape centered around optimizing Skill discoverability and interaction [13][14] Group 3: Memory and Context Management - Memory is viewed as a crucial component for self-evolving agents, enabling them to optimize their skills continuously [9][10] - The concept of "Memory as a File System" suggests a future where agents can efficiently manage context and information retrieval, enhancing their operational capabilities [10] - Effective feedback loops are necessary for guiding agents' evolution, ensuring they align with user preferences and work styles [10] Group 4: AI Interaction Dynamics - The limitations of human interaction bandwidth highlight the need for AI-to-AI interactions, which can significantly enhance information exchange efficiency [11][12] - Clawdbot's ability to facilitate AI interactions opens up numerous application possibilities across various domains, including social and content platforms [12][13] Group 5: Integration into Daily Workflows - Clawdbot's integration into IM platforms allows for seamless task management and interaction, transforming how users engage with AI in their daily workflows [14][15] - The potential for Clawdbot to create new social and trading platforms illustrates its versatility and the broad range of applications it can support [15][16] Group 6: Security and Challenges - Current security measures for Clawdbot are inadequate, necessitating improvements in sandboxing and backup mechanisms to protect user data [18][19] - The high token consumption and inefficient file retrieval processes present significant challenges that need to be addressed for Clawdbot's long-term viability [20][21] Group 7: Future Outlook - Clawdbot may evolve into a mainstream AI application by 2026, potentially becoming an open-source operating system that fosters rapid innovation and user-driven development [21][23] - The platform's ability to allow users to create and publish Skills quickly could disrupt traditional software development paradigms, leading to unprecedented rates of evolution in AI applications [21]

新浪科技讯 2月4日晚间消息，零一万物CEO、创新工场董事长李开复现身央视频《中关村对话·AI迎春 夜》节目。 谈及为何强调Agent将在ToB场景中广泛应用，李开复从三个角度进行了解答：第一，Agent需要相当多 的计算资源，成本也会比较贵； 第二，作为创业公司，如果要做ToC就要面临最强大的大厂，对它们来说，不能让一个创业公司把这样 的应用抢到手中。 因此，它们会花更多的资源。只有大厂才训练得起底层的大模型，只有大厂才能把通用的底层大模型延 伸到通用的ToC； 第三，大厂恰恰不会做ToB的工作，至少不会去针对一个企业做得很细腻，这就成为了一个创业公司的 方向。 他也表示，"还有一点超出预期的是娱乐行业对Agent的应用，这也意味着整个娱乐行业将会有非常大的 颠覆。" 责任编辑：何俊熹 责任编辑：何俊熹 新浪科技讯 2月4日晚间消息，零一万物CEO、创新工场董事长李开复现身央视频《中关村对话·AI迎春 夜》节目。 谈及为何强调Agent将在ToB场景中广泛应用，李开复从三个角度进行了解答：第一，Agent需要相当多 的计算资源，成本也会比较贵； 第二，作为创业公司，如果要做ToC就要面临最强大的大厂，对它们 ...

电子掘金：Agent 需求火热，持续看好算力链投资 20260201 摘要 近期关于 Agent 的市场讨论热度较高，您认为这种新形式的 Agent 对硬件行 业会产生哪些具体影响？ MultiBot 本地运行模式将大模型能力植入操作系统，虽存在安全隐患， 但激发了市场对 Agent 的关注，可能推动大厂加速推出更强大的 Agent 功能，进而增加对算力资源的需求，并促进边缘计算市场和存储器需求 的增长。 MultiBot 架构强调数据本地存储，带来零延迟访问和数据控制优势，将 增加对本地存储器的需求，未来个人边缘服务器可能普及，显著增加独 立增量需求，硬件角度来看，云端存储和本地存储将并存。 国产算力短期内大模型能力落后海外约半年，但长期来看将在本土市场 逐步替代海外算力。随着产能问题解决，预计 2026 年业绩将集中释放， 若大模型能力差距缩小，国产算力在全球竞争中将更具优势。 工业富联 2025 年业绩预告超预期，受益于 GB200 和 300 放量及 VeriSilicon 业务增长，作为海外算力链的重要组成部分，将持续受益于 AI 大趋势。非 AI 服务器业务方面，苹果业绩超预期及新品创新将带来增 ...

那首先，其实从当前的 Agent 的情况来看，这两周其实关于 Agent 的一些新的产品，包 括 Automic 的发的这个 Skills 也好，或者说是 Co-Work 也好，或者说是 Minimax 发的 Agent 2.0 也好。其实我们都可以看到 Agent 在今年 2026 年初，其实出现的这个产品 的这个迭代，以及大厂的这个发布的类型。其实有个明显的加速。那这里其实很明显的一 点是来自于模型的持续迭代和突破，使得 Agent 的发展带来可能。那这里的一些比较标志 性的建筑，标志性的事件，可以看到从 Meta 数 10 亿美元收购 Minus 开始，其实整其实 整个 Agent 已经从单一的垂直领域的单一任务的完成。 开始往常规化复杂任务的拆解及跨应用的操作能力进行发展了。所以伴随着整个模型能力 的增加，以及每一代，就是新出的模型强调通过 A to A 或者 MCP，或者说是视觉处理的 方法，来进行整个工具的调用，或者说是跨系统的使用。其实这就意味着智能体或者说 Agent 会将有可能成为下一代操作系统的核心，或者说是我们接下来跟软件，跟计算机交 互的方式发生变化。那软件本身，是计算机，人与计算机的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The computer sector is supported by strong fundamentals, with expectations of increased allocations to high-performing stocks. The sector's public fund allocation is currently at 1.6%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, marking a low point since 2010 [2][3]. - Valuation metrics such as PE, PS, and PCF suggest that there is still room for growth in the computer sector, despite high current levels. The PE (TTM) is at 94.6x, in the 94.80% historical percentile, while PS (TTM) is at 4.0x and PCF (TTM) is at 51.6x, indicating a divergence that could be resolved as market sentiment improves [2][11]. - Anticipated price increases for server CPUs due to supply constraints and rising demand driven by AI applications are highlighted. Major players like Intel and AMD may raise CPU prices by 10% to 15% in Q1 2026 [2][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sandbox environments for agents, which enhance system performance and security by isolating tasks, thus improving user experience in high-concurrency scenarios [24][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Holdings Analysis - The computer sector's public fund allocation decreased to 1.6% in Q4 2025, ranking 14th among 30 sectors, reflecting a decline in investor confidence [3][4]. - The top ten holdings in the computer sector include Inspur Information, Kingsoft Office, and Sangfor Technologies, with notable changes in positions among these stocks [5][6]. 2. Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the current PE (TTM) of 94.6x exceeds previous peaks in 2020 and 2023, indicating market optimism about future earnings potential [11][12]. - The divergence between PE and PS/PCF suggests that as the macroeconomic environment stabilizes, the sector's valuations may realign, leading to potential market cap growth [11][12]. 3. CPU Price Expectations - The report anticipates a supply-demand mismatch for CPUs, with significant price increases expected due to locked-in capacities and rising AI-driven demand [18][23]. - The role of CPUs is evolving, with increased responsibilities in managing complex workflows driven by AI agents, necessitating higher performance specifications [21][42]. 4. Sandbox Technology - The report discusses the growing importance of sandbox environments for AI agents, which enhance performance and security by isolating tasks and managing resources effectively [24][32]. - The sandbox model is seen as crucial for handling high concurrency and ensuring system stability, particularly in AI applications [32][40]. 5. Key Investment Themes - The report identifies several key investment themes, including digital economy leadership, AIGC applications, and new industrialization, with specific companies highlighted for each theme [45].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Tongdao Liepin (06100) has risen significantly, reflecting market recognition of its "AI recruitment strategy" and "financial stability" [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of the latest update, the stock price is reported at 4.49 HKD, with an increase of 11.41% and a trading volume of 16.37 million HKD [1][5]. Group 2: AI Recruitment Strategy - Tongdao Liepin has launched an AI-driven Agent that integrates both corporate recruitment and individual job-seeking processes. For companies, it automates demand confirmation, talent search, and initial communication, freeing HR from repetitive tasks [1][5]. - For individuals, the Agent offers comprehensive support, including resume optimization and mock interviews [1][5]. Group 3: Financial Stability - The company maintains a robust financial structure, holding over 2.5 billion RMB in cash-like assets. This substantial reserve provides a strong buffer against market volatility [1][5].

Core Viewpoint - The stock performance of Tongdao Liepin (06100) reflects market recognition of its "AI Recruitment Strategy" and "Financial Stability" as dual drivers of value [1] Company Summary - As of January 14, the company's stock price reached 4.38 HKD, with an increase of 8.68% [1] - The AI recruitment tool, Agent, integrates both corporate hiring and individual job-seeking processes, automating tasks such as demand confirmation, talent search, and initial communication for HR [1] - The company maintains a robust financial structure, holding over 2.5 billion RMB in cash assets, providing a strong buffer against market volatility [1] Industry Summary - The AI recruitment market is experiencing rapid growth, with China leading globally due to its large talent pool and digitalization needs [1] - According to the "2025 Spring Campus Recruitment White Paper" released by Niuke and Moka, the penetration rate of AI recruitment tools has surged to 77%, with over half of companies using AI for initial resume screening and more than one-third deploying AI interview systems [1] - As the macroeconomic environment improves, corporate hiring demand is expected to stabilize and increase, with deep intelligent applications like AI Agent becoming more widespread, potentially enhancing market concentration [1]