• 本周市场 聚焦 美联储1月利率决议， "超级财报周"重磅来袭，苹果、微软等科技巨头将发布财报 • 美联储继任主席最热门人选出炉 • 权益基金新发显著回暖， 年内新成立基金募资超700亿元 • 北交所打新资金首破万亿， 中签门槛显著抬升 • 苹果降价促销， 部分产品已缺货 • 全球存储器涨价潮加剧， 三星NAND闪存价格上调超100% 1. 本周全球市场大事不断！美联储将于北京时间1月30日凌晨3:00公布1月利率决议；美股"七巨头"财报密集发布；中国1月PMI数据将揭示经济开局态 势。 与此同时，多个产业大会备受关注，包括中国信通院太空算力研讨会、欧盟-印度峰会、OPEC+月度会议、亚洲金融论坛等。 2. 美联储继任主席人选牵动市场神经，美国总统特朗普可能最早于本周宣布新任美联储主席人选。 特朗普对全球资产管理巨头贝莱德公司高管里克·里德 尔的公开称赞，则让这位华尔街资深人士迅速跃升为美联储继任主席热门人选，目前在预测平台上，里德尔获提名的概率从4%升至50%左右。 1. 北京市2026年经济社会发展主要预期目标明确，包括：地区生产总值增长5%左右，一般公共预算收入增长4%左右，城镇调查失业率控制在5%以 ...

Group 1 - Major companies such as Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Apple (AAPL) are set to report earnings in a significant week for the stock market [5] - President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if a trade deal with China is reached, marking a notable shift in trade policy [5] - The stock market is facing multiple challenges including a Federal Reserve meeting, a federal funding deadline, and severe winter weather [6] Group 2 - The stock market experienced fluctuations with the Dow Jones and small-cap stocks declining, while Nvidia and Amgen are nearing buy points [8] - Boeing's stock is expected to rise ahead of its Q4 results, and three data storage stocks are highlighted in the earnings spotlight [10] - Tesla has removed some safety monitors from its robotaxis, and Elon Musk has issued a warning regarding Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology [10]

Group 1: Corporate Earnings Insights - The earnings reports from Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple represent a critical test for technology sector leadership and AI infrastructure investment narratives [1][2] - Microsoft's Azure cloud growth and AI monetization through Copilot will be crucial for validating the AI infrastructure investment thesis [1] - Meta's results will assess whether Reality Labs losses are justified by metaverse progress while digital advertising continues to fund innovation [1] - Tesla's delivery numbers, automotive margins, and energy storage performance will be closely scrutinized amid ongoing questions about EV demand and autonomous driving timelines [1] - Apple's iPhone demand in China and services revenue growth will be particularly important given trade tensions [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Meeting and Economic Context - The Federal Reserve meeting represents a critical juncture for policymakers to decide on interest rate adjustments amid persistent inflation concerns [3] - Chair Powell's press conference will provide insights into the Fed's policy trajectory and economic projections, influencing market expectations [3] - The timing of the Fed decision coinciding with major tech earnings creates a complex environment where monetary policy and corporate fundamentals will compete for market attention [3] Group 3: Trade Policy and Supply Chain Implications - President Trump's threat of 100% tariffs on Canadian goods marks a significant escalation in protectionist rhetoric, creating uncertainty for North American supply chains [4] - The potential impact of tariff threats on sectors with cross-border operations, such as automotive and aerospace, will be closely monitored [4] - Trump's speeches preceding major industrial earnings could amplify reactions if companies address trade policy impacts on their operations [4] Group 4: Industrial and Energy Sector Perspectives - Earnings from UnitedHealth, Boeing, General Motors, and UPS will provide insights into healthcare costs, aerospace manufacturing, automotive demand, and logistics activity [5][6] - The industrial earnings cluster will help assess business investment and capital spending resilience amid economic and trade policy uncertainties [6] - Earnings from Exxon and Chevron will offer perspectives on oil and gas markets, refining margins, and energy sector capital allocation amid volatile commodity prices [7] - Visa and Mastercard earnings will test payment network health and consumer spending resilience through transaction volume trends [7]

Bitcoin slipped below the $88,000 level on Sunday as crypto markets weakened in thin weekend trading, extending a pullback that has weighed on the crypto market over the past week. BTC traded around $87,800 in U.S. afternoon hours, down roughly 2% over 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data. Ether fell toward $2,880, while solana, XRP and cardano each posted losses of between 3% and 5% on the day. Most major tokens have remained sharply down over the past seven days, reflecting the fragile sentiment across ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts in its upcoming meeting, with a 95.6% probability of maintaining current rates and only a 4.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut [1] - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, with a 7.3% drop this week, bringing its year-to-date gains close to zero, while Ethereum has fallen below $3,000 [1][2] - Gold and silver have seen explosive growth in January, reaching historical highs as they attract safe-haven investments amid the downturn in cryptocurrencies [2] Group 2 - The U.S. job market shows mixed signals, with a cooling trend that may suppress financial market performance, while inflation remains persistent, as indicated by the PCE data showing a 2.8% year-over-year increase [5] - The GDP data released indicates a better-than-expected performance, but underlying details suggest a distorted economic rhythm due to tariff policies, with personal consumption contributing 2.34% to GDP [6][7] - The AI investment boom has led to fluctuations in fixed asset investment growth, with recent trends showing a decline in growth rates, impacting future economic potential [7] Group 3 - Following the earnings report from META, AI stocks have faced significant sell-offs, with the information sector index dropping 7.5%, while other sectors like industrials and materials have seen gains [9] - The U.S. government debt has reached $38.65 trillion, with plans to increase military spending by over 50%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and potential impacts on international relations [10] - The upcoming earnings reports from tech giants will be crucial in determining the future adjustments in the stock market, as geopolitical issues and inflation trends continue to influence market dynamics [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big Seven" tech companies—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—have led the stock market for most of the past three years, but this trend reversed by the end of 2025 as Wall Street began to question the substantial investments made in artificial intelligence and the timeline for returns on these investments [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - An index tracking the Big Seven reached a record high on October 29, but since then, five of these companies have seen their stock prices decline, underperforming the S&P 500 index [1] - Only Alphabet and Amazon have maintained an upward trajectory, with Alphabet's stock increasing nearly 20% [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Darrell Cronk, Chief Investment Officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, stated that tech stocks have become a "show me" story, indicating that funds will flow back into the tech sector if large tech companies continue to deliver strong performance [1] - Upcoming earnings reports from Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, and Meta will provide insights into the health of various sectors, including cloud computing, electronic devices, software, and digital advertising [1]

Core Viewpoint - Meta and its partner EssilorLuxottica are being sued by smart glasses manufacturer Solos for allegedly infringing on their patented technology related to smart glasses, seeking billions in damages [1][3]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - Solos filed a lawsuit in Massachusetts, claiming that Meta and EssilorLuxottica illegally used their core technology in the Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses, which includes aspects of perception and audio processing [3]. - Solos asserts that they obtained these patents years before Meta launched its smart glasses and that Meta acquired knowledge of the technology through reviewing technical documents and hiring personnel familiar with it [3]. Group 2: Product Information - The Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses are among the best-selling smart glasses on the market, developed in collaboration with EssilorLuxottica, which owns brands like Ray-Ban and Oakley [5]. - As of now, Meta and EssilorLuxottica have not responded to the lawsuit, and analysts suggest that the legal proceedings could take months or even years to resolve [5].

Core Insights - Bill Gates warns that the impact of AI on employment will be significant within four to five years, affecting both white-collar and blue-collar jobs, and that governments are unprepared for this disruption [1][2] - Gates expresses concerns about the high valuations of AI stocks, indicating that many may not justify their prices and that the market will be hyper-competitive [3][9] Investment Landscape - The AI boom has driven stock market rallies over the past three years, but recent months have seen a slowdown due to high valuations and concerns over tech giants' spending on AI [4] - Some AI stocks are trading at extremely high valuations, with Palantir (PLTR) having a price-to-earnings ratio over 400, while Broadcom (AVGO) and AMD have seen their ratios exceed 100 [5] - OpenAI, valued at $500 billion, is not expected to turn a profit until the end of the decade, highlighting the speculative nature of some private market valuations [6] Company Performance - Major companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon have seen accelerated growth in their cloud computing businesses due to AI demand, maintaining price-to-earnings ratios around 30 [7] - Nvidia has become a $4.5 trillion company driven by demand for its chips, with shares trading at a relatively modest 45 times earnings [7] - Despite concerns about an AI bubble, tech stocks rebounded after a dip in November, indicating investor confidence in the sector [10] Future Developments - Gates announced a $50 million partnership between the Gates Foundation and OpenAI to implement AI healthcare tools in 1,000 clinics across Africa by 2028, showcasing the potential societal benefits of AI [10]

Currency and Economic Trends - The dollar has fallen more than 2.7% against the Swiss franc and roughly 1.8% against the yen, indicating traders are hedging against systemic instability [1][2] - The EUR/USD pair has strengthened nearly 2% over the past five days, reflecting a shift towards safe-haven investments outside of the dollar [2] - Analysts suggest a fracturing global landscape where the USD may lose its reserve currency status, with the US focusing more on the Western Hemisphere [3] Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced weekly losses of 0.4% and 0.7% respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by approximately 0.1% [7][8] - Major indexes are facing a second consecutive week of losses as geopolitical tensions impact investor sentiment [8] Earnings and Investment Trends - Major tech companies including Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple are set to report fourth-quarter results, with a focus on AI spending and funding strategies [9][13] - The tech sector has issued nearly $700 billion in investment-grade debt over the past quarter, nearing the financial sector's issuance of just over $800 billion [15] - Concerns about an "AI bubble" are rising, with analysts emphasizing the need to consider risks associated with high spending and valuations [15][16] Metals Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged nearly 8% last week, reaching over $4,900 per troy ounce, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its year-end price target to $5,400 [20] - Silver and platinum have also seen significant price increases, with silver surpassing $100 per troy ounce for the first time [20] - Analysts predict a "super-cycle" in select metals due to strong demand and supply constraints, with prices expected to remain above historical averages [24][25]

Group 1 - The upcoming week will see a total reverse repurchase maturity scale of 11,810 billion yuan, with specific maturities on each day from Monday to Friday [1] - On January 26, a press conference will be held by the State Council Information Office regarding the 2025 business work and operational situation [2] - On January 27, China will release the year-on-year profit data for large-scale industrial enterprises for December 2025 [3] Group 2 - A press conference on January 28 will introduce the high-quality development of state-owned enterprises [4] - On January 30, preliminary GDP data for Hong Kong for the fourth quarter will be published [5] - On January 31, the official manufacturing PMI data for January will be released, with December's PMI recorded at 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [6] Group 3 - A total of 30 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, with a total market value exceeding 40 billion yuan, with January 27 being the peak unlocking date [6] - The companies with the highest unlocking market values include Haibo Shichuang (23.154 billion yuan), Fostar (5.367 billion yuan), and Yifang Biotechnology-U (4.251 billion yuan) [6] - Three new stocks will be issued next week, including Beixin Life on January 26 and Linping Development and Electronic Science and Technology Blue Sky on January 30 [6] Group 4 - The upcoming week will feature a "super earnings week" for U.S. stocks, with major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple, and others reporting earnings [8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision on January 30, with a low likelihood of rate cuts in the first quarter [8] - The U.S. government faces a risk of shutdown by January 31, with a 75% probability of closure due to recent political tensions [9]