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Core Viewpoint - Investors are focusing on niche stocks in the artificial intelligence sector, with upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies serving as a critical indicator for the continuation of this strategy into 2026 [1] Group 1: Performance of Major Tech Companies - The "Tech Seven" companies, including Google, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, have significantly influenced the stock market over the past three years, but this trend reversed by the end of 2025, leading to skepticism about the returns on their substantial investments in AI [1] - Following the peak of the Tech Seven index on October 29, 2025, five of the seven companies saw their stock prices decline, underperforming the S&P 500 index, with only Google and Amazon recording gains [1] Group 2: Shift in Investor Focus - Traders have shifted their attention to companies benefiting from substantial funding from large tech firms, with stocks like Sandisk, Micron Technology, and Western Digital seeing significant price increases of over 130%, 76%, and 67% respectively since the Tech Seven index's peak [2] - The performance of tech stocks is now expected to be driven by earnings, with major firms needing to demonstrate satisfactory results to attract capital back into the sector [2] Group 3: Upcoming Earnings Reports - Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla are set to release their earnings reports on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday, with Alphabet and Nvidia's reports scheduled for early February [2] - The Tech Seven group is projected to see a 20% profit growth in the fourth quarter, marking the slowest growth rate since early 2023, indicating pressure on these companies to show returns on their capital expenditures [2][4] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Growth Expectations - Major tech companies are expected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, with projections of around $475 billion in 2026, up from $230 billion in 2024, necessitating visible returns on these investments [4] - If these companies fail to meet growth targets, they risk substantial stock price declines, as seen with Meta Platforms, which experienced an 11% drop following its capital expenditure announcement without clear profitability guidance [5] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Valuation - Despite the challenges, the Tech Seven stocks are not considered expensive historically, with an expected price-to-earnings ratio of 28, aligning with the average over the past decade [8] - The S&P 500 index's performance is heavily influenced by the Tech Seven, which accounts for over one-third of the index's weight, making it difficult for investors to completely avoid these stocks [5]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are focusing on niche stocks in the artificial intelligence sector, with upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies serving as a critical indicator for the continuation of this strategy into 2026 [1] Group 1: Performance of Major Tech Companies - The "Tech Seven" companies, including Google, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, have significantly influenced the stock market over the past three years, but skepticism is growing regarding their AI investments and returns [1] - As of October 29, 2025, five of the seven companies saw their stock prices decline, underperforming the S&P 500 index, with only Google and Amazon showing gains [1] - The group is expected to report a 20% profit growth for Q4, marking the slowest growth since early 2023, indicating pressure to demonstrate returns on substantial capital expenditures [3][6] Group 2: Shift in Investor Focus - Following the decline of the Tech Seven index, traders have shifted their attention to companies benefiting from funding from these tech giants, with stocks like Sandisk, Micron Technology, and Western Digital seeing significant price increases [2] - The performance of these smaller companies is attributed to expectations of economic growth and attractive valuations, suggesting a broader market shift towards performance-driven investments [2] Group 3: Earnings Reports and Expectations - Major companies like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla are set to release earnings reports soon, with Alphabet and Nvidia following later, which will provide insights into various sectors including cloud computing and digital advertising [2][3] - Microsoft’s Azure business has shown remarkable growth, with a 39% revenue increase in Q1, driven by demand for AI model training, and expectations for continued growth in the upcoming quarter [5] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Investor Sentiment - Major tech companies are projected to increase capital expenditures to approximately $475 billion by 2026, up from $230 billion in 2024, raising investor expectations for returns [6] - The market is cautious, as companies that fail to meet growth targets may face significant stock price declines, as evidenced by Meta Platforms' 11% drop following its capital expenditure announcement [6] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Valuation - The Tech Seven companies dominate the S&P 500 index, accounting for over one-third of its total weight, making it challenging for investors to avoid these stocks [7] - Despite the recent performance issues, the expected price-to-earnings ratio for the Tech Seven is 28, aligning with historical averages, indicating that these stocks are not overly expensive [10]

Core Viewpoint - Stock futures are declining ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and amid concerns of a potential government shutdown [2] Group 1 - Stock futures were falling on Sunday, indicating a negative outlook for the market at the opening in New York on Monday [2] - The decline in stock futures is linked to the upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve [2] - There are rising fears regarding a possible federal government shutdown, which could occur for the second time in a few months [2]

I like the setup this week, especially for Big Tech, barring another intrusion by our intrusive president. Apologies to people who wish I would call his fits of pique more offensive. These injudicious, blunt-force tariffs do get undone almost as quickly as they are slapped on, thank heavens. How is it possible, ahead of a week of landmine earnings reports, to be positive? Most of the negatives are seared in, and the constructive narratives are being ignored. Right now, this market seems possessed by pessimi ...

• 本周市场 聚焦 美联储1月利率决议， "超级财报周"重磅来袭，苹果、微软等科技巨头将发布财报 • 美联储继任主席最热门人选出炉 • 权益基金新发显著回暖， 年内新成立基金募资超700亿元 • 北交所打新资金首破万亿， 中签门槛显著抬升 • 苹果降价促销， 部分产品已缺货 • 全球存储器涨价潮加剧， 三星NAND闪存价格上调超100% 1. 本周全球市场大事不断！美联储将于北京时间1月30日凌晨3:00公布1月利率决议；美股"七巨头"财报密集发布；中国1月PMI数据将揭示经济开局态 势。 与此同时，多个产业大会备受关注，包括中国信通院太空算力研讨会、欧盟-印度峰会、OPEC+月度会议、亚洲金融论坛等。 2. 美联储继任主席人选牵动市场神经，美国总统特朗普可能最早于本周宣布新任美联储主席人选。 特朗普对全球资产管理巨头贝莱德公司高管里克·里德 尔的公开称赞，则让这位华尔街资深人士迅速跃升为美联储继任主席热门人选，目前在预测平台上，里德尔获提名的概率从4%升至50%左右。 1. 北京市2026年经济社会发展主要预期目标明确，包括：地区生产总值增长5%左右，一般公共预算收入增长4%左右，城镇调查失业率控制在5%以 ...

Group 1 - Major companies such as Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Apple (AAPL) are set to report earnings in a significant week for the stock market [5] - President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if a trade deal with China is reached, marking a notable shift in trade policy [5] - The stock market is facing multiple challenges including a Federal Reserve meeting, a federal funding deadline, and severe winter weather [6] Group 2 - The stock market experienced fluctuations with the Dow Jones and small-cap stocks declining, while Nvidia and Amgen are nearing buy points [8] - Boeing's stock is expected to rise ahead of its Q4 results, and three data storage stocks are highlighted in the earnings spotlight [10] - Tesla has removed some safety monitors from its robotaxis, and Elon Musk has issued a warning regarding Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology [10]

Group 1: Corporate Earnings Insights - The earnings reports from Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple represent a critical test for technology sector leadership and AI infrastructure investment narratives [1][2] - Microsoft's Azure cloud growth and AI monetization through Copilot will be crucial for validating the AI infrastructure investment thesis [1] - Meta's results will assess whether Reality Labs losses are justified by metaverse progress while digital advertising continues to fund innovation [1] - Tesla's delivery numbers, automotive margins, and energy storage performance will be closely scrutinized amid ongoing questions about EV demand and autonomous driving timelines [1] - Apple's iPhone demand in China and services revenue growth will be particularly important given trade tensions [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Meeting and Economic Context - The Federal Reserve meeting represents a critical juncture for policymakers to decide on interest rate adjustments amid persistent inflation concerns [3] - Chair Powell's press conference will provide insights into the Fed's policy trajectory and economic projections, influencing market expectations [3] - The timing of the Fed decision coinciding with major tech earnings creates a complex environment where monetary policy and corporate fundamentals will compete for market attention [3] Group 3: Trade Policy and Supply Chain Implications - President Trump's threat of 100% tariffs on Canadian goods marks a significant escalation in protectionist rhetoric, creating uncertainty for North American supply chains [4] - The potential impact of tariff threats on sectors with cross-border operations, such as automotive and aerospace, will be closely monitored [4] - Trump's speeches preceding major industrial earnings could amplify reactions if companies address trade policy impacts on their operations [4] Group 4: Industrial and Energy Sector Perspectives - Earnings from UnitedHealth, Boeing, General Motors, and UPS will provide insights into healthcare costs, aerospace manufacturing, automotive demand, and logistics activity [5][6] - The industrial earnings cluster will help assess business investment and capital spending resilience amid economic and trade policy uncertainties [6] - Earnings from Exxon and Chevron will offer perspectives on oil and gas markets, refining margins, and energy sector capital allocation amid volatile commodity prices [7] - Visa and Mastercard earnings will test payment network health and consumer spending resilience through transaction volume trends [7]

Bitcoin slipped below the $88,000 level on Sunday as crypto markets weakened in thin weekend trading, extending a pullback that has weighed on the crypto market over the past week. BTC traded around $87,800 in U.S. afternoon hours, down roughly 2% over 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data. Ether fell toward $2,880, while solana, XRP and cardano each posted losses of between 3% and 5% on the day. Most major tokens have remained sharply down over the past seven days, reflecting the fragile sentiment across ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts in its upcoming meeting, with a 95.6% probability of maintaining current rates and only a 4.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut [1] - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, with a 7.3% drop this week, bringing its year-to-date gains close to zero, while Ethereum has fallen below $3,000 [1][2] - Gold and silver have seen explosive growth in January, reaching historical highs as they attract safe-haven investments amid the downturn in cryptocurrencies [2] Group 2 - The U.S. job market shows mixed signals, with a cooling trend that may suppress financial market performance, while inflation remains persistent, as indicated by the PCE data showing a 2.8% year-over-year increase [5] - The GDP data released indicates a better-than-expected performance, but underlying details suggest a distorted economic rhythm due to tariff policies, with personal consumption contributing 2.34% to GDP [6][7] - The AI investment boom has led to fluctuations in fixed asset investment growth, with recent trends showing a decline in growth rates, impacting future economic potential [7] Group 3 - Following the earnings report from META, AI stocks have faced significant sell-offs, with the information sector index dropping 7.5%, while other sectors like industrials and materials have seen gains [9] - The U.S. government debt has reached $38.65 trillion, with plans to increase military spending by over 50%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and potential impacts on international relations [10] - The upcoming earnings reports from tech giants will be crucial in determining the future adjustments in the stock market, as geopolitical issues and inflation trends continue to influence market dynamics [12][13]