Core Viewpoint - Merck & Co Inc is set to report its first-quarter earnings, with Wall Street anticipating earnings per share of $2.14 and revenue of $15.33 billion, amidst a significant decline in stock performance over the past year [1] Stock Performance - Merck's stock has decreased by 38.04% over the past year and 20.73% year-to-date, with a 14.85% drop in the last month, making it one of the worst performers among major pharmaceutical companies [1] - As of the latest publication, Merck's stock was trading at $78.68, down 0.37% [5] Technical Analysis - The stock is currently in a bearish trend, trading below its five-, 20-, and 50-day exponential moving averages, indicating a strong bearish sentiment [2] - The eight-day simple moving average (SMA) is at $78.32, providing a short-term bullish signal, but the 20-day SMA at $82.12 and the 50-day SMA at $87.48 indicate ongoing bearish conditions [3] - The 200-day SMA is significantly higher at $102.90, and momentum indicators such as the MACD at -3.36 and RSI at 36.36 suggest the stock is nearing oversold territory [3] Analyst Ratings and Consensus - Despite the bearish outlook, analysts maintain a Buy consensus rating for Merck, with a mean price target of $121, indicating a potential upside of 29.41% from current levels [5] - Recent ratings from Cantor Fitzgerald, Guggenheim, and Deutsche Bank average a target of $101.67, further supporting the potential for recovery [5]

Core Insights - The Medical sector's first-quarter 2025 earnings season is gaining momentum, with strong initial results from Johnson & Johnson, which exceeded earnings and sales estimates and raised its sales guidance for the year [1] - As of April 16, 3.3% of Medical sector companies reported earnings, with 100% surpassing earnings estimates and 50% exceeding revenue estimates, indicating a positive trend for the sector [1] - Overall, first-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are projected to increase by 34.7%, while sales are expected to rise by 7.5% compared to the previous year [1] Gilead Sciences - Gilead Sciences has a strong earnings track record, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 19.47% [3] - For Q1 2025, Gilead has an Earnings ESP of +3.07% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with consensus earnings estimated at $1.73 per share [5] - The company's revenue is expected to be supported by its HIV therapies, although it may face challenges due to the new Medicare Part D model affecting discounts [6][7] Bristol Myers - Bristol Myers has also shown a solid earnings performance, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 16.18% [8] - For the upcoming quarter, Bristol Myers has an Earnings ESP of -0.51% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with consensus earnings estimated at $1.54 per share [8] - Revenue is anticipated to be impacted by declining sales from legacy drugs, but this may be offset by growth in newer products [9] Merck - Merck has a favorable earnings history, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 4.68% [11] - For Q1 2025, Merck has an Earnings ESP of -2.04% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with consensus earnings estimated at $2.16 per share [11] - Revenue growth is expected to be driven by the strong performance of its cancer drug Keytruda, although international sales of the HPV vaccine Gardasil may be negatively affected [12] AbbVie - AbbVie has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 2.37% over the last four quarters [13] - For the upcoming quarter, AbbVie has an Earnings ESP of -3.61% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with consensus earnings estimated at $2.47 per share [13] - The company's revenue is likely to be bolstered by strong sales of key drugs and contributions from newer products [14] Sanofi - Sanofi has a mixed earnings record, beating estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.14% [15] - For Q1 2025, Sanofi has an Earnings ESP of +1.62% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with consensus earnings estimated at 90 cents per share [15] - Revenue is expected to benefit from higher sales of Dupixent and new products, although lower flu vaccine sales and generic competition may pose challenges [16]

Core Viewpoint - Merck is set to report its first-quarter 2024 earnings on April 24, with sales and earnings estimates at $15.48 billion and $2.16 per share respectively, while earnings estimates for 2025 have seen a slight decline from $9.01 to $8.96 per share over the past month [1][2]. Earnings Performance - Merck has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, achieving an average earnings surprise of 4.68% [2][3]. - The most recent quarter showed an earnings surprise of 1.78% [2]. Sales Drivers - The anticipated top-line growth in Q1 is expected to be driven by the cancer drug Keytruda, supported by increased patient demand and additional indications [5]. - Keytruda's sales are projected at $7.55 billion according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while a higher estimate of $7.82 billion is provided [6]. Product Performance - U.S. sales of Keytruda in the previous quarter benefited from approximately $200 million in wholesale inventory buy-in, which is expected to reverse in Q1 2025 [7]. - Sales of the new drug Welireg are likely to have increased due to its uptake for advanced renal cell carcinoma [13]. - The HPV vaccine Gardasil is expected to see mixed results, with U.S. sales increasing due to higher pricing, while ex-U.S. sales may decline due to lower demand in China [10]. Competitive Landscape - Merck's reliance on Keytruda raises concerns about the company's ability to diversify its product lineup ahead of the drug's loss of exclusivity in 2028 [23]. - Competitive pressure for Keytruda may increase, particularly from Summit Therapeutics' candidate ivonescimab, which has shown promising results in trials [24]. Valuation and Market Performance - Merck's stock has declined 21.1% year-to-date, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [16]. - The company's shares trade at a forward price/earnings ratio of 8.44, which is lower than the industry average of 15.07 and its own 5-year mean of 13.10 [19]. Investment Outlook - Merck's portfolio includes several blockbuster drugs, with Keytruda being a significant revenue driver, alongside growth in animal health and vaccine products [22]. - Despite challenges such as declining sales for Gardasil in China and potential competition for Keytruda, the company is expected to maintain strong fundamentals in the long term [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhifei Biological, reported a shocking financial performance for 2024, with a significant decline in revenue and profit, indicating deep-rooted development crises in the vaccine industry [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 26.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.74% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.018 billion yuan, down 74.99% [1]. - Operating cash flow turned negative for the first time, reaching -4.414 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio climbing to 62.3%, the highest in five years [1]. Business Segment Analysis - The core agency business experienced a catastrophic decline, with the issuance of Merck's HPV vaccine plummeting: the four-valent vaccine's issuance was only 466,000 doses, a drop of 95.5%, while the nine-valent vaccine saw a 14.8% decrease to 31.14 million doses [1]. - Revenue from agency business fell from 69.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 23.9 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - Self-developed products showed a 14.98% increase in revenue to 1.182 billion yuan, but only accounted for 4.53% of total revenue [2]. Industry Challenges - The industry is facing cyclical adjustments and demand exhaustion, with a 37% decline in the total issuance of second-class vaccines in 2024, and a 42% reduction in the HPV vaccine market [3]. - The company's heavy reliance on Merck's products poses risks, especially with the partnership agreement expiring in 2026, leaving renewal terms uncertain [3]. - Research and development spending was only 1.23 billion yuan, representing 4.7% of revenue, significantly lower than the 15%-20% standard of international vaccine giants [3]. Strategic Shifts - The company is shifting its strategic focus towards independent innovation, including entering the GLP-1 market through a stake in Chen'an Biological [4]. - There is a need to re-evaluate channel value and restructure the ecosystem, transforming the existing distribution network into an open vaccine service platform [4]. - The male health market presents strategic opportunities, with the potential for the HPV vaccine market exceeding 20 billion yuan in China [5]. Future Outlook - The company is at a crossroads, transitioning from a "distributor" to an "innovator," facing short-term pain but with long-term potential in the vaccine industry [5]. - Key factors for recovery include the speed of R&D pipeline advancement, the depth of strategic partnerships, and signs of cash flow improvement [6].

分组1 - The Health Care sector has outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, with the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLV) returning -1.5% year to date, which is significantly better than the SPDR S&P 500 ETF [1]

I initiate on (NYSE: MRK ) with a Strong Buy and $139 PT. Merck & Co., Inc. is a leading global healthcare company with market-leading positions in oncology, vaccines, and animal health. My conviction is based on resilient execution (Hi, I'm Oskar Goyvaerts, Chief Investment Officer at Moretus Investments L.P., a value-focused hedge fund. At Moretus, we specialize in identifying deeply undervalued businesses trading significantly below intrinsic value. Our disciplined, fundamentals-driven approach has consi ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the weight loss drug sector within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, suggesting potential acceleration in business development (BD) opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a slight decline of -0.36% from April 14 to April 18, underperforming compared to the Wind All A index (0.39%) and the CSI 300 index (0.59). The market showed a preference for defensive sectors, with chemical preparations (0.62%), traditional Chinese medicine (0.6%), and offline pharmacies (0.19%) showing minor gains, while blood products (-4.39%), other biological products (-1.78%), and vaccines (-1.49%) saw significant pullbacks [2][7]. - The GLP-1 receptor agonists are expected to catalyze growth in the weight loss drug sector. Notably, Eli Lilly announced positive results from the Phase III ACHIEVE-1 study for its oral drug Orforglipron, which is set to expand the application of GLP-1 drugs. This class of drugs is becoming a focal point for multinational corporations (MNCs) in the metabolic disease space, with domestic companies poised to benefit from rapid innovation and lower R&D costs [2][12]. Market Weekly Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's performance from April 14 to April 18 showed a decline of -0.36%, with the market favoring defensive stocks. The top gainers included Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical (56.4%), Kangpeng Technology (56.3%), and Lifang Pharmaceutical (47.1%), while the largest losers were *ST Jiyuan (-50.7%), Hasanlian (-19.1%), and Changyao Holdings (-18.5%) [7][10]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - On April 17, Eli Lilly announced that its oral GLP-1 receptor agonist Orforglipron achieved positive results in its Phase III study, showing significant reductions in A1C levels and weight loss compared to placebo [12]. - Pfizer terminated the development of its GLP-1 small molecule receptor agonist Danuglipron due to potential liver damage in trial participants [12]. - The report highlights several companies making strides in the industry, including the approval of new indications for Merck's Gardasil 9 HPV vaccine and the progress of various clinical trials for innovative drugs [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast Merck's quarterly earnings to be $2.16 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.4%, while revenues are expected to decline by 1.9% to $15.48 billion [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 4%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Sales for Oncology product Keytruda are projected to reach $7.55 billion, an increase of 8.7% year-over-year [5]. - Hospital Acute Care sales for Zerbaxa are expected to be $63.07 million, reflecting a 12.6% increase from the previous year [5]. - Alliance revenue for Lynparza is estimated at $300.62 million, indicating a 3% increase year-over-year [5]. - Sales for Oncology Alliance revenue Lenvima are projected at $234.33 million, showing an 8.1% decline from the prior year [6]. - U.S. sales for Keytruda are expected to be $4.47 billion, reflecting an 8.6% increase year-over-year [6]. - International sales for Keytruda are projected at $3.08 billion, indicating an 8.8% increase from the previous year [7]. - U.S. sales for Lynparza are expected to reach $121.96 million, reflecting a 9.7% decline year-over-year [7]. - International sales for Lynparza are projected at $178.66 million, indicating a 13.8% increase from the prior year [8]. - U.S. sales for Lenvima are expected to be $155.59 million, reflecting a 10.1% decline year-over-year [8]. - International sales for Lenvima are projected at $78.74 million, indicating a 4% decline from the previous year [9]. - U.S. sales for Zerbaxa are expected to reach $36.81 million, reflecting an 11.5% increase year-over-year [9]. - International sales for Zerbaxa are projected at $26.26 million, indicating a 14.2% increase from the prior year [10]. Stock Performance - Merck's shares have decreased by 17.7% over the past month, compared to a 6.9% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [10].

Core Viewpoint - A class action lawsuit has been filed against Merck & Co., Inc. alleging that the company made false and misleading statements regarding its revenue outlook and growth prospects for Gardasil, particularly in relation to competition and drug approval developments [1][2]. Group 1: Allegations of Misleading Statements - The lawsuit claims that Merck created a false impression of having reliable information about its projected revenue and growth for Gardasil while downplaying competitive risks and drug approval challenges [2]. - It is alleged that Merck's optimistic reports regarding growth and demand in China were not reflective of the actual situation, indicating a material decline in the company's ability to drive demand for Gardasil [2]. Group 2: Impact on Stock Price - Following the announcement on July 30, 2024, regarding a significant drop in shipments from its distributor, Merck's stock price fell nearly 10% [3]. - On February 4, 2025, after disclosing a 3% decline in Gardasil sales to $8.6 billion, Merck's stock price dropped more than 9% [4]. Group 3: Legal Representation - Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. is investigating potential claims on behalf of long-term stockholders of Merck and is encouraging individuals with information or questions to reach out [1][5].

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on lower revenues when Merck (MRK) reports results for the quarter ended March 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on April 24. On the othe ...