Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the weight loss drug sector within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, suggesting potential acceleration in business development (BD) opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a slight decline of -0.36% from April 14 to April 18, underperforming compared to the Wind All A index (0.39%) and the CSI 300 index (0.59). The market showed a preference for defensive sectors, with chemical preparations (0.62%), traditional Chinese medicine (0.6%), and offline pharmacies (0.19%) showing minor gains, while blood products (-4.39%), other biological products (-1.78%), and vaccines (-1.49%) saw significant pullbacks [2][7]. - The GLP-1 receptor agonists are expected to catalyze growth in the weight loss drug sector. Notably, Eli Lilly announced positive results from the Phase III ACHIEVE-1 study for its oral drug Orforglipron, which is set to expand the application of GLP-1 drugs. This class of drugs is becoming a focal point for multinational corporations (MNCs) in the metabolic disease space, with domestic companies poised to benefit from rapid innovation and lower R&D costs [2][12]. Market Weekly Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's performance from April 14 to April 18 showed a decline of -0.36%, with the market favoring defensive stocks. The top gainers included Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical (56.4%), Kangpeng Technology (56.3%), and Lifang Pharmaceutical (47.1%), while the largest losers were *ST Jiyuan (-50.7%), Hasanlian (-19.1%), and Changyao Holdings (-18.5%) [7][10]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - On April 17, Eli Lilly announced that its oral GLP-1 receptor agonist Orforglipron achieved positive results in its Phase III study, showing significant reductions in A1C levels and weight loss compared to placebo [12]. - Pfizer terminated the development of its GLP-1 small molecule receptor agonist Danuglipron due to potential liver damage in trial participants [12]. - The report highlights several companies making strides in the industry, including the approval of new indications for Merck's Gardasil 9 HPV vaccine and the progress of various clinical trials for innovative drugs [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast Merck's quarterly earnings to be $2.16 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.4%, while revenues are expected to decline by 1.9% to $15.48 billion [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 4%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Sales for Oncology product Keytruda are projected to reach $7.55 billion, an increase of 8.7% year-over-year [5]. - Hospital Acute Care sales for Zerbaxa are expected to be $63.07 million, reflecting a 12.6% increase from the previous year [5]. - Alliance revenue for Lynparza is estimated at $300.62 million, indicating a 3% increase year-over-year [5]. - Sales for Oncology Alliance revenue Lenvima are projected at $234.33 million, showing an 8.1% decline from the prior year [6]. - U.S. sales for Keytruda are expected to be $4.47 billion, reflecting an 8.6% increase year-over-year [6]. - International sales for Keytruda are projected at $3.08 billion, indicating an 8.8% increase from the previous year [7]. - U.S. sales for Lynparza are expected to reach $121.96 million, reflecting a 9.7% decline year-over-year [7]. - International sales for Lynparza are projected at $178.66 million, indicating a 13.8% increase from the prior year [8]. - U.S. sales for Lenvima are expected to be $155.59 million, reflecting a 10.1% decline year-over-year [8]. - International sales for Lenvima are projected at $78.74 million, indicating a 4% decline from the previous year [9]. - U.S. sales for Zerbaxa are expected to reach $36.81 million, reflecting an 11.5% increase year-over-year [9]. - International sales for Zerbaxa are projected at $26.26 million, indicating a 14.2% increase from the prior year [10]. Stock Performance - Merck's shares have decreased by 17.7% over the past month, compared to a 6.9% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [10].

Core Viewpoint - A class action lawsuit has been filed against Merck & Co., Inc. alleging that the company made false and misleading statements regarding its revenue outlook and growth prospects for Gardasil, particularly in relation to competition and drug approval developments [1][2]. Group 1: Allegations of Misleading Statements - The lawsuit claims that Merck created a false impression of having reliable information about its projected revenue and growth for Gardasil while downplaying competitive risks and drug approval challenges [2]. - It is alleged that Merck's optimistic reports regarding growth and demand in China were not reflective of the actual situation, indicating a material decline in the company's ability to drive demand for Gardasil [2]. Group 2: Impact on Stock Price - Following the announcement on July 30, 2024, regarding a significant drop in shipments from its distributor, Merck's stock price fell nearly 10% [3]. - On February 4, 2025, after disclosing a 3% decline in Gardasil sales to $8.6 billion, Merck's stock price dropped more than 9% [4]. Group 3: Legal Representation - Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. is investigating potential claims on behalf of long-term stockholders of Merck and is encouraging individuals with information or questions to reach out [1][5].

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on lower revenues when Merck (MRK) reports results for the quarter ended March 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on April 24. On the othe ...

智通财经4月17日电，蒙特利尔银行将默克公司目标股价从96美元下调至89美元；将辉瑞目标价从36美 元下调至30美元。 ...

Core Insights - Merck and AbbVie are leading pharmaceutical companies with strong portfolios in oncology and immunology, respectively [2][4] - Both companies are experiencing consistent sales and earnings growth, supported by robust pipelines with promising late-stage candidates [4] Merck Overview - Oncology accounts for approximately 50% of Merck's total revenues, with the PD-L1 inhibitor Keytruda alone contributing around 50% of its pharmaceutical sales [3] - Merck has over six blockbuster drugs, with Keytruda being the primary revenue driver, particularly in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer [9] - The company has made significant regulatory and clinical progress in 2024, alongside strategic acquisitions [10] - However, Merck faces challenges such as declining sales of Gardasil due to weak performance in China and concerns about its dependence on Keytruda [11][12] AbbVie Overview - AbbVie's largest segment is immunology, which also accounts for around 50% of its total revenues, driven by key drugs like Humira, Skyrizi, and Rinvoq [3] - AbbVie has successfully managed the loss of exclusivity for Humira by launching new immunology medicines that are performing well [5] - The company has a strong pipeline with several early/mid-stage candidates and plans for regulatory submissions and approvals in the next 12 months [6] - AbbVie faces near-term headwinds, including biosimilar erosion of Humira and competitive pressures on its cancer drug Imbruvica [7][8] Financial Comparisons - As of December 31, 2024, AbbVie had $60.3 billion in long-term debt and a debt-to-capital ratio of 0.95, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.41 [8] - Merck exited 2024 with cash and cash equivalents of $13.7 billion and a debt-to-capital ratio of 0.42, slightly above the industry average [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AbbVie's 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year increases of 5.7% and 21.4%, respectively [13] Investment Outlook - AbbVie is positioned for continued strong growth, expecting mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025 and a high single-digit CAGR through 2029 [17] - In contrast, Merck faces the upcoming loss of exclusivity for Keytruda in 2028, raising concerns about its ability to sustain growth [17] - Despite a steeper valuation, AbbVie is viewed as a more favorable investment due to rising estimates and a solid growth outlook [18]

Policy Developments - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) approved the registration of 308 medical device products as of March 2025, including 248 domestic Class III medical devices, 34 imported Class III medical devices, 19 imported Class II medical devices, and 7 medical devices from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [1] Drug Approvals - Chengdu Saijing Bio's ursodeoxycholic acid oral suspension has been approved as the first domestic generic Class 3.1 new drug for treating cystic fibrosis-associated liver disease (CFALD), filling a gap in the market for this indication [2] - Kowa Company's pemafibrate tablets have been approved in China for the treatment of dyslipidemia [3] - Merck Sharp & Dohme (MSD) announced that its nine-valent HPV vaccine has received approval for male use in China, targeting males aged 16-26, enhancing public awareness of HPV infections in men [5] Capital Market - Zhongjie Chaorun completed a Pre-A round financing of several million yuan, primarily for clinical trials of its artificial meniscus implant and commercialization of its innovative meniscus suturing device [4] Financial Reports - Aoyang Health reported a 2024 revenue of 2.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.54%, with a net profit of 40.56 million yuan, down 18.36% [6] - Novogene announced a total revenue of 2.111 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.45%, with a net profit of 197 million yuan, up 10.52% [7] - Tianyi Medical reported a revenue of 419 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.98%, but a net loss of 744,000 yuan [8] - Luoxin Pharmaceutical disclosed a net loss of 962 million yuan for 2024, despite a revenue increase of 11.99% to 2.647 billion yuan [9] - Dongxing Medical reported a revenue of approximately 435 million yuan for 2024, a slight increase of 0.4%, with a net profit of about 97.42 million yuan, up 0.21% [10] Public Sentiment - Xinbang Pharmaceutical announced the resignation of independent director Zhou Jun, with the company reporting a revenue of 6.032 billion yuan for 2024, down 6.63%, and a net profit of 101 million yuan, down 64.70% [11] - Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical warned of potential delisting risk due to expected negative net profit and revenue below 300 million yuan for 2024 [12]

Company Performance - Merck (MRK) closed at $79.17, reflecting a slight decrease of -0.01% from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.79% [1] - The stock has experienced a significant decline of 16.27% over the past month, compared to the Medical sector's loss of 8.97% and the S&P 500's loss of 3.56% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Merck's earnings report is scheduled for April 24, 2025, with an expected EPS of $2.16, representing a 4.35% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is anticipated to be $15.48 billion, indicating a decrease of 1.85% compared to the previous year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $8.96 per share and revenue of $64.99 billion, reflecting increases of +17.12% and +1.27% respectively from the prior year [3] - Recent modifications to analyst estimates are crucial as they often indicate near-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting a favorable business outlook [3][4] Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), has shown a strong track record, with 1 stocks averaging an annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] - Merck currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with a recent 0.53% decline in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate [5] Valuation Metrics - Merck is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 8.84, which is lower than the industry average Forward P/E of 13.03 [6] - The company's PEG ratio stands at 0.72, compared to the average PEG ratio of 1.19 for Large Cap Pharmaceuticals [6] Industry Overview - The Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry is part of the Medical sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 72, placing it in the top 30% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the strength of industry groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with top-rated industries outperforming lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Company Overview - Merck (MRK) and AbbVie (ABBV) are leading pharmaceutical companies with strong portfolios in oncology and immunology, with Merck also involved in vaccines, diabetes, virology, and animal health, while AbbVie has a presence in aesthetics, neuroscience, and eye care [1][2] - Oncology accounts for around 50% of Merck's total revenues, with Keytruda, a PD-L1 inhibitor, alone accounting for approximately 50% of its pharmaceutical sales [1][2] AbbVie Analysis - AbbVie's largest segment is immunology, contributing around 50% of its total revenues, with key drugs including Humira, Skyrizi, and Rinvoq [2][3] - The company has successfully managed the loss of exclusivity for Humira by launching new immunology medicines, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are performing well and expected to support growth [3][4] - AbbVie has a robust pipeline with several early/mid-stage candidates and anticipates multiple regulatory submissions and approvals in the next 12 months [4] - The company has been active in acquisitions to strengthen its pipeline, particularly in immunology, while also exploring early-stage deals in oncology and neuroscience [4] AbbVie Challenges - AbbVie faces near-term challenges, including biosimilar erosion of Humira, competitive pressure on Imbruvica, and slow market growth for Juvederm fillers in the U.S. and China [5] AbbVie Financials - As of December 31, 2024, AbbVie had $60.3 billion in long-term debt and $6.8 billion in short-term obligations, with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $5.6 billion, resulting in a debt-to-capital ratio of 0.95, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.41 [6] Merck Analysis - Merck has over six blockbuster drugs, with Keytruda being the primary revenue driver, particularly in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer [7] - The company has made significant regulatory and clinical progress in 2024, particularly in oncology and vaccines, and has executed strategic acquisitions [8] Merck Challenges - Merck's sales of Gardasil declined in 2024 due to weak performance in China, and the company is experiencing weakness in its diabetes franchise and generic erosion of some drugs [9] - Concerns are rising about Merck's ability to grow its non-oncology business ahead of Keytruda's loss of exclusivity in 2028 [10] Merck Financials - As of the end of 2024, Merck had cash and cash equivalents of $13.7 billion against long-term debt of $34.5 billion, resulting in a debt-to-capital ratio of 0.42, slightly above the industry average [10] Sales and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AbbVie's 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year increases of 5.7% and 21.4%, respectively [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Merck's 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year increases of 1.3% and 17.1%, respectively [14] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, AbbVie's stock has declined by 0.6%, while Merck's stock has dropped by 19.7%, compared to the industry's decrease of 6.0% [17] Valuation Comparison - Both companies are priced lower than the industry average, with AbbVie trading at a price/earnings ratio of 13.71, higher than Merck's 8.60 [19] - AbbVie's dividend yield is 3.75%, lower than Merck's 4.09% [20] Return on Equity - AbbVie's return on equity stands at 296.3%, significantly higher than Merck's 44.4% [23] Investment Outlook - AbbVie is positioned for continued strong growth, having navigated the challenges of Humira's patent cliff effectively, while Merck faces uncertainties related to Keytruda's upcoming loss of exclusivity [25][26] - AbbVie expects robust mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025, while Merck's future growth is uncertain due to its reliance on Keytruda [26]

Core Viewpoint - A class action lawsuit has been filed against Merck & Co., Inc. for alleged violations of securities laws, specifically related to misleading statements about the demand for its product Gardasil in China and inflated inventory issues [1][4]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - The lawsuit is based on violations of §§10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and Rule 10b-5 [1]. - Investors who purchased Merck's securities between February 3, 2022, and February 3, 2025, are encouraged to participate in the class action [2]. - The class has not yet been certified, meaning potential participants are not currently represented by an attorney [3]. Group 2: Allegations Against Merck - The complaint alleges that Merck made false and misleading statements regarding its consumer activation and education efforts for Gardasil, particularly in China [4]. - The company was overly optimistic about Gardasil's demand while concealing negative facts about actual demand and inflated inventory held by its distributor, Zhifei [4]. - As a result of these misleading statements, investors suffered damages when the truth about Merck's situation was revealed [4].