Workflow
Microsoft(MSFT)
icon
Search documents
微软面临AI支出与订单积压风险
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-30 15:51
Core Viewpoint - Microsoft (MSFT) experienced a significant drop of approximately 10% in its stock price following the announcement of its second-quarter earnings, despite exceeding expectations in earnings per share and revenue. The decline was attributed to slowing growth in Azure, a 66% increase in capital expenditures to $37.5 billion, and 45% of its $625 billion backlog being related to OpenAI [1][2]. Group 1 - Microsoft reported second-quarter earnings per share and revenue that surpassed expectations [1][2] - The stock price fell about 10% due to concerns over Azure's growth slowdown [1][2] - Capital expenditures surged by 66% to $37.5 billion [1][2] - 45% of the $625 billion commercial backlog is associated with OpenAI [1][2]
Why Jan. 28 Was a Historic Day for Microsoft for All the Wrong Reasons
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-30 15:19
Core Viewpoint - Microsoft has experienced a significant stock price drop of 12% shortly after trading began on January 29, marking one of the worst single-day declines in its history, indicating a reset in investor expectations [1] Financial Performance - Microsoft reported earnings on January 28, with revenue of $81.3 billion, exceeding expectations by $1.1 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.14, which was $0.22 above expectations [2] - The company spent $37.5 billion on capital expenditures in the latest quarter, a 66% increase from the previous year, primarily for artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centers [3] Growth Concerns - Azure's revenue grew by 39% year over year, but growth is expected to slow due to physical capacity limitations in meeting demand [4] - Investors are becoming impatient regarding the timeline for returns on Microsoft's significant investments, raising concerns about the impact on profit margins [3]
ETFs to Buy as Microsoft's Shares Slump Despite Q2 Earnings Beat
ZACKS· 2026-01-30 15:16
Core Insights - Microsoft shares fell 10% despite exceeding analysts' expectations for Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings and revenues, primarily due to higher-than-expected capital expenditures and slowing cloud growth expectations [1][10] Financial Performance - In Q2, Microsoft's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.7%, and revenues exceeded the consensus by 1.3%, with both metrics showing double-digit year-over-year growth [5] - Revenue from Azure and other cloud services grew by 39%, while Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services revenues increased by 16%, and Microsoft 365 Consumer products and services revenue rose by 27% [6] - LinkedIn revenues increased by 11% due to growth in Marketing Solutions [6] Future Outlook - Microsoft anticipates revenues between $80.65 billion and $81.75 billion for Q3, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $80.47 billion, driven by strong growth in commercial businesses [7] - The company expects a decline in Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage to approximately 65% year-over-year due to ongoing investments in AI, and Xbox content and services revenues are projected to decline in the mid-single digits in Q3 [8] Analyst Reactions - JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy maintained an Overweight rating but reduced the price target from $575 to $550, citing concerns over CPU supply constraints affecting Azure growth [9] - Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges maintained a Buy rating and lowered the price target from $655 to $600 [11] Investment Opportunities - Investors optimistic about Microsoft's cloud growth may consider ETFs with significant exposure to Microsoft, such as: - iShares Dow Jones US Technology ETF (IYW), which has $21.06 billion in net assets and a 12.32% allocation to Microsoft, with a 25.9% increase over the past year [12][13] - iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF (TOPT), with $486.3 million in net assets and an 11.23% allocation to Microsoft, showing a 17% increase over the past year [14][15] - Select Sector SPDR Technology ETF (XLK), with $94.07 billion in assets and an 11.38% allocation to Microsoft, which has rallied 26.5% over the past year [16][17] - Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT), with $112.8 billion in net assets and a 12.19% allocation to Microsoft, which has soared 22.8% over the past year [18][19]
Microsoft Just Hit an 8-Month Low. Is the AI Stock a No-Brainer Buy Right Now?
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-30 15:05
Core Viewpoint - Microsoft has been a leader in the AI sector, particularly after its investments in OpenAI, but recent earnings reports indicate potential challenges ahead, leading to a significant drop in stock price [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 17% to $81.3 billion, and operating income rose by 21% to $38.3 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 47% [5]. - Adjusted earnings per share grew by 24% to $4.14, with Azure revenue up 39%, contributing to $32.9 billion in the intelligent cloud segment [5]. Market Reaction - Despite solid fiscal second-quarter results, investors reacted negatively to flat revenue guidance for the third quarter, which is projected to be between $80.65 billion and $81.75 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 15%-17% [6]. - The stock experienced a double-digit decline, erasing over $400 billion from the company's market capitalization, which may be viewed as excessive [8]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a 22%-23% increase in cost of goods sold, which could impact margins, and has indicated a decrease in capital expenditures due to normal variability [6]. - Free cash flow is declining as capital expenditures increase, and there is slower growth in the consumer business, potentially influenced by macroeconomic factors [7]. - Remaining performance obligations (RPO) rose to $625 billion, indicating positive future demand [7].
Why Investors Rewarded Meta and Tesla But Punished Microsoft Despite Revenue Beat
247Wallst· 2026-01-30 14:46
Three mega-cap tech companies reported earnings on Wednesday, and the market's verdict was swift and brutal for one company while two Magnificent 7 members received stamps of approval. ...
How Low Can Microsoft Stock Go?
Forbes· 2026-01-30 14:40
Core Insights - Microsoft (MSFT) stock has experienced a significant drop of 10% in a single day, raising concerns about Azure cloud growth, increasing AI costs, and reliance on OpenAI [2] - The company is valued at $3.2 trillion with a revenue of $305 billion, currently trading at $433.50 [3] - The stock's high valuation, with a P/E multiple of 27.0 and a P/EBIT multiple of 21.6, suggests it may be relatively expensive [4][7] Performance Analysis - Microsoft stock has shown resilience during past economic downturns, outperforming the S&P 500 in terms of recovery speed and extent of decline [5] - Historical performance indicates that MSFT stock decreased by 37.6% from a peak of $343.11 on November 19, 2021, to $214.25 on November 3, 2022, while the S&P 500 saw a peak-to-trough drop of 25.4% [8] - The stock fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by June 15, 2023, and reached a high of $542.07 on October 28, 2025, before currently trading at $433.50 [8] Economic Context - Over the last 12 months, Microsoft has achieved a revenue growth of 16.7% and an operating margin of 46.7% [7] - The company maintains a low Debt to Equity ratio of 0.02 and a Cash to Assets ratio of 0.13, indicating strong liquidity [7] Historical Downturns - During the 2020 COVID pandemic, MSFT stock fell by 28.2% from a high of $188.70 on February 10, 2020, to $135.42 on March 16, 2020, compared to a 33.9% decline for the S&P 500 [9] - In the 2018 correction, the stock decreased by 18.6% from $115.61 on October 1, 2018, to $94.13 on December 24, 2018, while the S&P 500 dropped by 19.8% [9] - The stock plummeted by 59.1% during the 2008 global financial crisis, from $37.06 on November 1, 2007, to $15.15 on March 9, 2009, compared to a 56.8% decline for the S&P 500 [9]
QLTY's 37% Tech Allocation Was A Tailwind; Now It's A Liability
247Wallst· 2026-01-30 14:18
Core Viewpoint - The GMO U.S. Quality ETF (QLTY) has seen significant inflows and strong performance, but its heavy allocation to technology may pose risks as market conditions change [1] Group 1: Performance and Inflows - QLTY attracted $3 billion since its launch in November 2023, focusing on companies with exceptional returns on capital [1] - The ETF returned 20.5% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 by approximately 500 basis points [1] Group 2: Technology Allocation Risks - QLTY has a 37% allocation to Information Technology, which exposes it to valuation risks as tech multiples may compress [1] - The top holdings in QLTY have an average forward price-to-earnings ratio near 25x, which is reasonable for companies with double-digit revenue growth [1] - Quality premiums can diminish quickly with shifts in interest rate expectations or disappointing growth [1] Group 3: Earnings Quality and Company Performance - Meta Platforms, a significant holding in QLTY, has a profit margin of 30.9% but experienced an 82.6% year-over-year earnings decline due to investments in Reality Labs [1] - The uncertainty surrounding Meta's earnings raises questions about the sustainability of QLTY's performance [1] - Johnson & Johnson, with a 4.4% weight in QLTY, offers some defensive balance, but the portfolio remains heavily influenced by tech giants like Microsoft and Lam Research [1]
Why investors are suddenly nervous about Microsoft and newly confident in Meta
Fastcompany· 2026-01-30 14:08
Core Insights - Microsoft stock experienced its largest single-day drop since 2020, while Meta's stock surged by 10%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards these tech giants [1] - Meta is focusing on its core advertising business and reported $59.89 billion in revenue for the last quarter, exceeding Wall Street estimates by over $1 billion [1] - Meta's daily active users grew by 7% year-over-year across its products, showcasing increased engagement [1] Meta's AI Investment - Meta plans to invest between $115 billion and $135 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, a significant increase from the $72.22 billion spent in 2025 [1] - The increase in spending is primarily aimed at enhancing Meta Superintelligence Labs, its AI division [1] - Meta's integration of AI into existing products is expected to improve ad performance and drive revenue growth [1] Future Revenue Expectations - Meta anticipates revenue between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion for the upcoming quarter, reflecting optimism about its financial outlook [1] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance its core products and accelerate business growth, with positive responses from advertisers regarding ad performance improvements [1]
Microsoft tumbled 10% in a day and isn't recovering premarket. Here's why
CNBC· 2026-01-30 14:03
In this articleMETAMSFTMicrosoft's stock isn't recovering in Friday's pre-market trading, after the stock saw its biggest daily decline since 2020 on Thursday, sliding 10% after an earnings report.It's trading 0.55% up on Thursday's close as of 6.44 am ET.This is despite the company's second-quarter earnings beating analyst revenue expectations. Like other hyperscalers, Microsoft has invested huge sums in its AI infrastructure buildout. But Meta reported huge AI spending on the same day and its stock jumped ...
Tech CFOs face a new challenge: Selling unprecedented capex as ‘disciplined’
Fortune· 2026-01-30 14:00
Core Insights - Both Meta and Microsoft emphasize the need for significant capital spending in the AI sector, which is seen as disciplined and demand-driven rather than reckless [1][8]. Meta - Meta's CFO highlighted a trade-off between increased infrastructure investment and profitability, expecting 2026 operating income to exceed 2025 levels despite potential pressure on operating margins [2]. - The company projects 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $115–$135 billion, a significant increase from $72 billion in 2025, positioning it among the largest capex spenders in the AI and hyperscaler sectors [3]. - Meta's confidence is primarily based on its advertising business, which generated $59.89 billion in revenue for Q4, surpassing estimates and contributing to over $200 billion in annual revenue [4]. Microsoft - Microsoft reported a capital expenditure of about $37.5 billion in Q2 FY26, an increase from $34.9 billion in the previous quarter, reflecting a focus on AI and data-center build-outs [5][6]. - The investment strategy is centered on meeting sustained demand and optimizing asset capacity, with a strong cloud demand indicated by Microsoft Cloud exceeding $50 billion in quarterly revenue and Azure growing approximately 39% year-over-year [6][7]. - Microsoft achieved $81.3 billion in revenue for the quarter, a 17% year-over-year increase, although there were concerns about Azure's growth rate compared to previous quarters [7]. Overall Industry Perspective - The combined messages from Meta and Microsoft suggest that while AI-driven capital expenditures are increasing, a disciplined investment approach focused on monetization is expected to support sustainable growth and profitability [8].