图片来源： Unsplash OpenAI 正在寻求筹集高达 1000 亿美元的资金，以满足其 AI 日益增长的需求，并已从一些最大的科技合作伙伴处获得巨额支票。 据知情人士透露，现有 投资者英伟达正在谈判投资高达 300 亿美元，该公司的芯片为 OpenAI 的 AI 模型提供算力支持。 长期支持者微软正在谈判投资不到 100 亿美元，该公司拥有将 OpenAI 模型销售给其云客户的独家权利。 而潜在新投资者亚马逊也在谈判投资显著超过 100 亿美元的资金，甚至可能超过 200 亿美元。 两位知情人士透露，这些投资将不包含现有投资者软银的注资，后者目前也正就高达 300 亿美元的投资进行谈判。若本轮巨额融资能够顺利落地，将缓解 投资者对公司资金消耗的担忧。近期公开市场投资者对 OpenAI 履行其向甲骨文和微软支出承诺的能力日益存疑。 这轮融资前，公司估值或达 7300 亿美元。 科技巨头的参与将为 OpenAI 提供远超以往的可用资源，用以支付 AI 模型的训练和运行成本以及其他计算费用——该公司去年夏季预估 2026 至 2030 年间 相关开支将超过 4300 亿美元，期间还将消耗近 700 亿美元资 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold and silver experienced significant declines, with silver dropping by 8% and gold falling below $5,200 per ounce [1] Group 2: Technology Stocks - Major technology stocks saw a collective drop, with Microsoft down 11.73%, Salesforce down 8.33%, and Oracle down 5.73% [4] - The decline in tech stocks is attributed to market skepticism regarding AI spending and concerns about whether demand can support substantial capital expenditures [4] - Over the past three years, the "Big Seven" tech stocks have been the main drivers of market growth, but by the end of 2025, Wall Street began questioning the return on the billions invested in AI by these companies [5] Group 3: Market Trends - Microsoft reported a slowdown in cloud business growth for Q2 of fiscal year 2026 and provided a weak guidance for operating margins in Q3 [5] - Bitcoin fell below $86,000 amid a pullback in risk assets, marking its lowest point in about six weeks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Schall Law Firm is investigating Microsoft Corporation for potential violations of securities laws related to misleading statements and undisclosed information affecting investors [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation centers on whether Microsoft issued false or misleading statements or failed to disclose critical information to investors [2]. - Following the Q2 2026 financial results announcement on January 28, 2026, Microsoft shares fell nearly 10% due to capacity constraints associated with AI [2]. - Microsoft CFO Amy Hood indicated that approximately 45% of the commercial RPO balance is from OpenAI, with the remaining balance growing by 28%, reflecting strong customer demand [2].

Market Overview - The global financial markets experienced significant volatility, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply after reaching historical highs, with maximum intraday declines of over 5% and 8% respectively [1][9][10] - The U.S. stock market also faced turbulence, with the Nasdaq index plunging 2.6% at one point before closing down 0.72% [2][11] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a major sell-off, with Bitcoin dropping over 5% to below $85,000, while Ethereum and other altcoins experienced declines exceeding 6% [3][6] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks also suffered, with Strategy stock falling over 9% and Coinbase Global down more than 4% [5] Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, falling from a peak of $5,600 per ounce to $5,105.83, marking a maximum drop of 5.7% before rebounding [9] - Silver prices also fell from a historical high of $121.67 per ounce to $106.80, with a maximum intraday decline of 8.5% [9] Investor Sentiment - There is a growing skepticism regarding Bitcoin's status as a macro hedge, as it has underperformed compared to gold and silver despite rising geopolitical tensions [6][7] - Recent data indicates that Bitcoin holders have entered a loss realization phase for the first time in 2023, suggesting a decline in investor confidence [6] Corporate Earnings Impact - Microsoft shares plummeted nearly 12% during trading after reporting a slowdown in cloud business growth, impacting the software sector significantly [11][12] - Other tech stocks reacted variably, with Meta seeing a 10.4% increase after announcing substantial capital expenditure plans, while other companies like ServiceNow and SAP faced declines [12][13]

金融期货早评 宏观：美政府再次面临部分停摆 【市场资讯】1）英国首相斯塔默：在华会谈取得了实质性成果。2）美国财政部发布报告： 未将任何经济体列入汇率操纵名单。3）美参议院未能推进拨款法案，联邦政府再次面临 "停摆"危机，国土安全部的拨款或另起法案。4）美国总统特朗普称，明天上午将宣布美联 储主席人选。 1. 微软 AI 支出引爆忧虑，股价暴跌 10%，拖累美股大盘。贵金属巨震。 2. 特朗普：将于明早（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【策略建议】短期内，建议出口企业可在 7.01 附近，择机逢高分批锁定远期结汇，以规避 汇率回落可能导致的收益缩水风险；进口企业则可在 6.93 关口附近采取滚动购汇的策略。 【重要资讯】1）美参院关键投票未能推进拨款法案，特朗普称接近达成协议避免政府关门。 2）美国总统特朗普：将于明天早上（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【风险提示】海外经济数据超预期、特朗普政策超预期 重要声明：以上内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 股指：短期预计延续调整 【市场回顾】 【核心研判与传导逻辑】当前全球市场正处于"海外等待政策验证、国内等待需求修复"的 关键过渡阶段。海外方面，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft experienced a significant stock sell-off, resulting in a market cap loss of $357 billion, marking the second-largest single-day market cap loss in U.S. history [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Microsoft's stock price plummeted by 10%, the largest single-day decline since March 2020 [1]. - The company's market cap loss exceeded the total market cap of over 90% of the S&P 500 index members [1]. - This event follows a historical precedent where Nvidia faced a $593 billion market cap loss in January 2022 [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Results and AI Investment - Microsoft's recent earnings report revealed record AI spending, with capital expenditures increasing by 66% to $37.5 billion [3]. - The growth rate of the Azure cloud computing business has slowed compared to the previous quarter [3]. - Microsoft faces capacity constraints in AI demand, with remaining performance obligations (RPO) totaling $625 billion, of which approximately 45% is linked to its partnership with OpenAI [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Commentary - There is growing skepticism among investors regarding the return on investment (ROI) from Microsoft's substantial AI expenditures [3]. - Analysts suggest that Microsoft's stock may need to be revalued to align with its historical fair value due to the perceived lack of strong ROI from AI investments [3].

Fund Market - The issuance of new funds has accelerated this year, with total scale exceeding 100 billion yuan, driven by equity and FOF products [1] - 110 new funds were established by January 29, with a total issuance scale of 110.54 billion yuan, including 85 equity funds totaling 76.81 billion yuan [1] - FOF products have also maintained high popularity, with issuance scale surpassing 80 billion yuan in 2025 [1] Technology Sector - Over 260 companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board have released performance forecasts for 2025, with 105 companies reporting positive growth [1] - The focus on technology growth sectors such as artificial intelligence and biomedicine is expected to attract long-term capital [1] Aerospace Industry - A series of significant announcements were made at the Commercial Aerospace Action Conference, outlining the future of China's commercial aerospace sector [2] - By 2030, low-orbit satellite constellations are expected to be established, with launch costs potentially dropping below 10,000 yuan per kilogram [2] Communication Technology - China has achieved a new milestone in ground-space laser communication, with speeds reaching 120 Gbps [2] Semiconductor Development - Research teams have made advancements in two-dimensional semiconductors, specifically in the production of molybdenum disulfide films [2] Corporate Financial Performance - Apple reported a revenue of 143.8 billion USD for the quarter ending December 27, a 16% year-on-year increase, driven by strong iPhone 17 demand and a 38% increase in sales in China [3] - Adidas preliminary data indicates a fourth-quarter revenue of 6.08 billion euros, slightly below expectations, but full-year operating profit is projected at 2.06 billion euros, above estimates [4] Market Reactions - Microsoft experienced a significant stock sell-off, with a market value decrease of 357 billion USD, the second-largest single-day drop in history, attributed to concerns over AI spending and slowing cloud business growth [5][13] - Other tech stocks, including Alphabet and Nvidia, also faced substantial market value losses [5][13]

"Microsoft disappointed and there are some ‌genuine concerns that AI investments will eat the software companies' lunches," said John Praveen, managing director & Co-CIO, Paleo Leon in Princeton, New Jersey. Investors are trying to "reduce exposure to stocks and play it safe" against a backdrop of broader uncertainties including who the Federal Reserve's next chair will be and how many interest rate cuts it will make, according to Praveen who also cited political uncertainties around Washington's stance in ...

中证网讯①据国投瑞银基金公告称，国投白银LOF将于1月30日开市起停牌至收市。此外，原油LOF易 方达、嘉实原油LOF等将自1月30日开市起停牌一小时。 ②当地时间1月29日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，大型科技股多数上涨。美国科技巨头微软股价重 挫，跌近10%。 ③商品方面，国际金银现货价格一度重挫，随后快速回升，期现货价格走势分化。(张舒琳) ...

Core Insights - Microsoft reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $81.3 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, with operating income up 21% and adjusted EPS at $4.14, reflecting a 24% increase [1] - Cloud revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, reaching $51.5 billion, a 26% increase year-over-year [1] - The company’s commercial order volume grew by 230% year-over-year, driven by significant long-term commitments from clients like OpenAI [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue: $81.3 billion, up 17% YoY (15% at constant currency) [1] - Operating income: up 21% YoY (19% at constant currency) [1] - Adjusted EPS: $4.14, up 24% YoY (21% at constant currency) [1] - Cloud revenue: $51.5 billion, up 26% YoY (24% at constant currency) [1] - Gross margin: 67% [1] Business Outlook - Q3 revenue forecast: $80.65 billion to $81.75 billion, a 15%-17% YoY increase [1] - Expected cost of revenue: $26.65 billion to $26.85 billion, a 22% YoY increase [1] - Anticipated operating expenses: $17.8 billion to $17.9 billion, a 10%-11% YoY increase [1] - Capital expenditures expected to decrease quarter-over-quarter due to normal fluctuations in cloud infrastructure construction [1] Strategic Focus - The company’s strategy emphasizes three layers of technology stack: cloud and token factory, agent platform, and superior agent experience [2] - The impact of AI on GDP and Total Addressable Market (TAM) growth is just beginning [2] - The agent platform is seen as the next generation of application platforms, requiring various services for deployment and management [2] Capital Expenditure and ROI - CapEx growth is driven by long-term demand, with investments aimed at supporting applications like M365 Copilot and GitHub Copilot [3] - Azure's growth guidance is linked to capacity allocation rather than immediate revenue [3] - The average contract duration for RPO has increased from 2 years to 2.5 years, indicating a more stable revenue outlook [3] OpenAI Partnership - Approximately 45% of the unfulfilled orders (RPO) are related to OpenAI, with the remaining 55% reflecting a diverse business portfolio [4][5] - The partnership with OpenAI is viewed positively, contributing to Microsoft's leadership in technology and application innovation [5] Capacity Expansion - The company is focused on increasing capacity globally, with significant projects in Atlanta and Wisconsin [6] - Long-term infrastructure development is prioritized to ensure efficient deployment of GPU and CPU resources [6] Chip Development - The Maia 200 accelerator shows significant performance improvements, enhancing Microsoft's competitive edge in AI workloads [6] - Continuous innovation in chip design and system optimization is crucial for maintaining cost advantages [7] Client Transformation - Clients adopting Microsoft’s AI technology stack are experiencing transformative benefits, with potential for increased spending as they become "frontier firms" [8] - The deployment of agents is changing how companies coordinate work, leading to greater impact [8] Cloud Migration Trends - Ongoing cloud migration is evident, with services like SQL Server on Azure showing growth [9] - The need for a balanced approach between commercial cloud and AI cloud is emphasized as clients migrate workloads [9]