股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 農夫山泉股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年8月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09633 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,034,666,400 | RMB | | 0.1 | RMB | | 503,466,640 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,034,666,400 | RMB | | 0.1 | RMB | | 503,466,640 | | 2. 股份 ...

Core Viewpoint - The valuation of Nongfu Spring has experienced fluctuations due to public sentiment, but it has actively responded, leading to a recovery in valuation to above 30x. The company's long-term growth potential and excellent business model are the main reasons for its valuation premium [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Nongfu Spring, established in 1996, is a rare platform enterprise in the soft drink sector in China, with a comprehensive product layout including packaged water, tea, and juice [4]. - In 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of 42.9 billion and a net profit of 12.1 billion, with a net profit margin of 28%, leading the industry in both revenue scale and profitability [4]. - The company adheres to a long-termism philosophy, aiming to create products that last a century rather than just achieving short-term revenue goals [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The company has a highly concentrated shareholding structure, with founder Zhong Shanshan holding 84% of the shares, allowing for stable and efficient management [6]. - Nongfu Spring has a deep involvement in the upstream supply chain, including tea and fruit cultivation, positioning itself as a vertically integrated enterprise [6]. - The management team has extensive experience in the beverage industry, contributing to effective operational mechanisms and industry-leading incentives [6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The packaged water market in China is expected to reach 247 billion in 2024, with a forecasted medium single-digit growth rate, driven by large and bulk packaging [14]. - The industry has experienced a shift from low-cost "one yuan" water to "two yuan" water, with Nongfu Spring successfully increasing its market share during this transition [18]. - The packaged water sector is characterized by a long lifecycle and continuous growth, benefiting from trends towards health and convenience [11][12]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The packaged water industry has seen a concentration of market share among leading brands, with Nongfu Spring significantly widening the gap with competitors [15]. - The competitive landscape has evolved through three phases: product-centric, channel-centric, and brand-centric, with Nongfu Spring emerging as a leader in the brand-centric phase [16][18]. - The company has effectively navigated challenges, including public sentiment issues, by focusing on rational pricing strategies and enhancing brand strength [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that several beverage companies in mainland China are expected to announce strong mid-year performance, with notable growth in revenue and profit for specific companies [1] Group 2 - Nongfu Spring (09633) is projected to achieve a robust 15% revenue growth in the first half of the year, driven by a low base and recovery in the bottled water business [1] - Uni-President China (00220) is expected to see a 26% year-on-year increase in net profit and an 8% rise in revenue [1] - However, Tingyi (00322) is anticipated to experience a 3% decline in revenue due to a decrease in market share following last year's price increases [1] Group 3 - The report anticipates intensified industry competition starting from the second quarter of this year, which is expected to continue into the third quarter, but believes it will slow down in the fourth quarter [1] - Nongfu Spring and Uni-President are expected to perform better in the first half of the year, with the main catalyst for the second half being potential structural changes in the bottled water market for Nongfu Spring [1]

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，该行所覆盖多家内地饮品股将于8月公布中期业绩，预计农夫山 泉(09633)上半年应该会在低基数和包装水业务复苏下录得15%的强劲收入增长，而统一饮料中国 (00220)的净利润将同比增长26%，收入则升8%。不过，康师傅控股(00322)去年产品提价后，市场份额 有所下降，料上半年收入或同比下降3%。 该行预期，行业竞争自今年第二季起明显加剧，并料将持续至第三季，惟相信可在第四季放缓。该行相 信，农夫山泉和统一上半年的业绩上或表现更佳，而下半年的主要催化剂是农夫山泉在包装水市场可能 出现的结构变化。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a rare beverage platform enterprise with a long-term growth perspective, benefiting from deep channel barriers and sustainable growth [1][2]. - The packaging water and sugar-free tea sectors are in a long lifecycle with good growth potential, and the company has a leading market share in these segments [2][3]. - The company's revenue and profit forecasts indicate strong growth, with expected revenues of 501 billion, 568 billion, and 632 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profits of 147.9 billion, 169.7 billion, and 189.9 billion CNY for the same years [3][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the packaging water sector, with a concentrated shareholding structure and efficient management mechanisms [2][23]. - The founder, Zhong Shanshan, practices long-termism and has a strong vision for the company's growth [2][23]. Packaging Water Market - The packaging water market is projected to reach 247 billion CNY in 2024, with expected mid-single-digit growth driven by large packaging and bulk sales [2][42]. - The company has established a significant lead in the packaging water sector, benefiting from the long lifecycle and ongoing growth of this market [2][52]. Soft Drink Sector - The company has positioned itself well in the rapidly evolving soft drink market, with increasing profitability across various product categories [3][35]. - The report highlights the company's strategic advantage in the soft drink sector, with a focus on health-oriented products like sugar-free tea and functional beverages [3][35]. Competitive Barriers - Strong channel foundations and high-quality product endorsements create significant competitive barriers for the company [3][4]. - The company's long-term operational strategy and substantial investments in channels have solidified its market position [3][4]. Financial Analysis and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 501 billion, 568 billion, and 632 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027, with net profits of 147.9 billion, 169.7 billion, and 189.9 billion CNY respectively [5][3]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in earnings per share, with projections of 1.32, 1.51, and 1.69 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5][3]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a reasonable price range of 56.65 to 59.48 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 20% to 26% from the current stock price [3][6]. - The company is recognized as a rare platform enterprise in the soft drink sector, with strong channels and product endorsements, indicating continued growth potential in the medium to long term [3][6].

Core Insights - The white birch juice market is rapidly expanding, driven by increasing consumer interest and marketing efforts, particularly through online platforms and live streaming [1][3][10] - The product is marketed as a premium beverage, often referred to as "liquid gold," with claims of various health benefits, although scientific validation of these claims remains limited [4][8][12] - The industry faces challenges related to standardization and quality control, with a lack of unified regulations leading to significant variations in product quality [9][11] Market Dynamics - Sales of white birch juice are booming, with both online and offline channels experiencing significant growth, aided by influencer marketing [2][3] - The price of white birch juice is notably higher than that of imported coconut water, with a reported price of approximately 21.6 yuan per liter, which is about 50% more expensive [9][10] - Major beverage companies, including Nongfu Spring and Huiyuan, are entering the white birch juice market, indicating strong commercial interest [10][12] Health Claims and Consumer Perception - White birch juice is promoted for its purported health benefits, including detoxification and immune support, although these claims lack robust scientific backing [4][6][8] - Consumer interest is driven by curiosity and positive taste experiences, with some customers becoming repeat buyers due to the refreshing flavor [5][6] Industry Standards and Quality Control - The absence of specific national standards for white birch juice processing leads to inconsistencies in product quality, with some brands potentially diluting their products [9][10][11] - A new group standard for natural white birch juice has been introduced, but compliance is voluntary, leading to mixed adherence among producers [10][11] Environmental Concerns - The increasing demand for white birch juice raises concerns about the sustainability of white birch resources, particularly in the context of climate change [12][13] - Research indicates that climate change may negatively impact the growth rates of white birch trees, necessitating careful management of harvesting practices to ensure long-term sustainability [12][15]

Core Insights - The white birch juice market is rapidly expanding, driven by increasing consumer interest and marketing efforts, particularly through online platforms and live streaming [1][4][12] - Major beverage companies, including Nongfu Spring and Huiyuan, are entering the white birch juice sector, indicating its potential as a lucrative niche market [1][13] - The lack of standardized regulations across the industry raises concerns about product quality and authenticity, as many brands may dilute their products or use additives [12][14] Market Dynamics - Sales of white birch juice are booming both online and offline, with live streamers promoting it as a trendy health drink [2][4] - The price of white birch juice is significantly higher than that of imported coconut water, with a reported price of approximately 21.6 yuan per liter, which is about 50% more expensive [12] - The primary harvesting season for white birch juice is from April to May, with a current annual harvesting capacity of around 580 million tons in Heilongjiang province [16][12] Consumer Perception - Consumers are drawn to white birch juice due to its unique taste and purported health benefits, although many claims regarding its medicinal properties remain unverified [6][10] - The marketing of white birch juice as "liquid gold" has contributed to its appeal, but there are concerns about the authenticity of these claims [6][12] Regulatory Environment - There is currently no national standard specifically for white birch juice, leading to inconsistencies in product quality and labeling [12][14] - A new group standard for natural white birch juice has been proposed, which aims to ensure that products contain no additives and retain their natural properties [13] Environmental Concerns - The sustainability of white birch resources is under scrutiny due to climate change, which poses risks to the long-term viability of harvesting practices [15][21] - Recent regulations in Heilongjiang province aim to manage the collection of birch sap to prevent overharvesting and ensure sustainable practices [21]

高盛发表研究报告，预计农夫山泉今年上半年销售额达254亿元，净收入达73亿元，分别按年升15%与 17%，大致符合该行先前预期。展望下半年，该行认为基于低基数效应，加上集团的产品创新能力及灵 活的渠道和营销策略，业绩有望持续改善。该行提到，关注主要竞争对手娃哈哈近期面对舆论压力及杭 州地方政府潜在介入可能带来的消费者迁移机会。 该行将农夫山泉2025至27年收入预测上调1%至3%，基于饮用水增长预测上调2%至7%，并将同期盈利 预测上调3%至9%，因利润率表现较好；最新料2025全年销售额及净利润分别按年升17%及20%，2026 年升14%及16%。该行对其目标价由43.6港元上调至48港元，重申"买入"评级。 ...

Core Insights - The ice cup market is experiencing intense competition with numerous brands entering the space, including Yuanqi Forest, Yili, Mengniu, and others, all of which have found success in this segment [2] - The price of ice cups has increased significantly, with some products priced at nearly three times the cost of the water used to make them, indicating a shift in consumer willingness to pay for convenience and novelty [2] - Consumer habits are evolving, with ice cups becoming a popular choice for refreshing drinks during summer, leading brands to capitalize on this trend by enhancing their ice cup offerings [3] Market Dynamics - The ice cup market has seen a dramatic increase in sales, with a reported growth rate exceeding 300% over the past two years, particularly in first-tier cities where the average annual consumption is 48 cups per person [3] - The future growth of ice products in instant retail channels is projected to reach 39% over the next three years, significantly outpacing the overall channel growth of 8% [3] - Despite the current dominance of plain water ice cups, there is potential for flavor diversification, which could become a key competitive factor in the market [3] Consumer Behavior - Ice cups are increasingly viewed as a solution for consumers seeking convenience, especially in scenarios where traditional ice acquisition is difficult, thus enhancing the appeal of these products [3] - The emotional value and experiential aspect of ice cups are driving consumer interest, as they cater to modern consumers' desires for personalized and immediate consumption experiences [4] - The seasonal nature of ice cups presents challenges, with potential sales peaks followed by periods of low demand, indicating a need for brands to innovate and maintain consumer engagement year-round [3][4]

金融界7月28日消息，上证指数高开震荡，中证中国内地企业全球主要消费综合指数(CN消费综合， H30379)报8671.19点。 从指数持仓来看，中证中国内地企业全球主要消费综合指数十大权重分别为：贵州茅台（26.08%）、 五粮液（6.78%）、伊利股份（4.97%）、牧原股份（3.67%）、温氏股份（2.71%）、泸州老窖 （2.63%）、山西汾酒（2.59%）、农夫山泉（2.29%）、海天味业（1.85%）、东鹏饮料（1.69%）。 从中证中国内地企业全球主要消费综合指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比53.35%、深圳 证券交易所占比35.01%、香港证券交易所占比11.16%、北京证券交易所占比0.31%、纽约证券交易所占 比0.14%、纳斯达克证券交易所(Consolidated Capital Market)占比0.01%、纳斯达克全球精选市场证券交 易所(Consolidated Issue)占比0.00%、纳斯达克股票市场证券交易所(Consolidated Large Cap)占比0.00%。 从中证中国内地企业全球主要消费综合指数持仓样本的行业来看，酒占比48.53%、食品占比20 ...