❑ 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、原材料成本上升、新品拓展不及预期。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 27 日 农夫山泉（09633.HK） 盈利能力强化，继续看好龙头份额提升 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 25 年半年报，25H1 公司实现营收/归母净利润 256.2 亿元/76.2 亿元， 同比+15.6%/+22.2%，25H1 公司净利润略超预期，盈利能力强化彰显龙头品牌 力。公司瓶装水业务份额有望加速恢复，中长期品牌、渠道能力领先。东方树 叶渗透率仍有提升，预计 26 年渠道数量仍有 5%-10%增长空间，份额有望继续 提升，中期维度有望成长为 200 亿级别单品。同时公司在咖啡、碳酸茶、植物 饮料方面均前瞻性布局，有望打造第二增长曲线。7-8 月动销数据持续验证，继 续看好龙头份额提升。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 42667 | 42896 | 50703 | 58296 | 65583 | | ...

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 27 年 月 日 农夫山泉（09633.HK） 龙头强势恢复，业绩表现亮眼 事件：公司发布 2025 年中报，25H1 实现营业收入 256.22 亿元，同比 +15.6%；实现归母净利润 76.22 亿元，同比+22.1%；每股基本收益 0.677 元，同比+22.0%。 包装水业务：舆论消退，保持恢复。2025H1 公司包装水业务取得收入 94.43 亿元，同比+10.7%，占营收比重-1.6pct 至 36.9%；取得业绩 33.47 亿元，同比+22.0%；包装水业务净利率同比+3.3pct 至 35.4%。 公司包装水业务因舆情影响衰退而逐步恢复销售，我们认为公司凭借强 大的品牌、产品、渠道影响力，包装水业务有望继续保持恢复性的增 长。 饮料业务：茶和果汁增速亮眼，利润率稳步提升。2025H1 公司茶/功能/ 果汁/其他饮料分别取得收入 100.89/28.98/25.64/6.29 亿元，同比 +19.7%/+13.6%/+21.3%/+14.8%，占比分别+1.4/-0.2/+0.5/+0.0pct 至 39.4%/11.3 ...

值得注意的是，公司茶饮料业务首次超越包装水，成为公司第一大收入来源，录得收益 100.89亿元，同 比猛增 19.7%，占总收益的 39.4%。"东方树叶"系列是核心增长引擎。 8月26日，农夫山泉（09633.HK，股价46.960港元，市值5281亿港元）发布2025年中期业绩报告。2025 年上半年，公司实现营收256.22亿元，同比增长15.6%，净利润为76.22亿元，同比增长22.1%。 其中，茶饮料板块延续高速增长，包装饮用水业务呈现回暖态势，"水+饮料"双主力板块合力推动公司 业绩再创新高。 | | | | 散 王0月30日 上0個月 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年 | | 2024年 | | 變動 | | | 產品類別 | 收益 | 比例 | 收益 | 比例 | 收益 | 比例 | | | (人民幣 | | (人民幣 | | (人民幣 | | | | 百萬元) | | 百萬元) | | 日 高元) | | | 包裝飲用水產品 | 9.443 | 36.9% | 8.531 | 38.5% | 912 ...

（企业公告） (编辑：王璨 林辰) 8月26日，农夫山泉发布2025年中期业绩公告。当中披露，2025年上半年，集团录得总收益为256.22亿 元（人民币，下同），同比增长15.6%；母公司拥有人应占溢利约为76.22亿元，同比增长22.1%。 分产品看，包装饮用水产品的收益较去年同期增长10.7%至94.43亿元，在总收益占比为36.9%；茶饮料 产品的收益较去年同期增长19.7%至100.89亿元，在总收益占比为39.4%；此外，功能饮料产品录得收益 28.98亿元，较去年同期增长13.6%，占总收益的11.3%；果汁饮料产品继续维持稳定增长，录得收益 25.64亿元，较去年同期增长21.3%，占总收益的10.0%。 ...

本报记者 李应齐 李 蕊 宦 翔 韩立群 中国海关总署近日发布数据，今年前7个月，中国对上海合作组织其他成员国进出口2.11万亿元人民 币，同比增长3%，规模创历史同期新高。秉持"上海精神"，上合组织不断深化经贸、投资、互联互通 等领域合作，走出一条互利共赢、共同繁荣之路，为地区发展注入强劲动力。 平台赋能—— 上合示范区磁吸效应日益彰显 山东青岛，胶州湾畔。中国—上海合作组织地方经贸合作示范区(以下简称"上合示范区")内，一派繁忙 景象—— 鸣笛声中，一辆悬挂国际公路运输系统标识的货车满载新鲜果蔬从国际公路运输集结中心驶出，7天后 便可直抵俄罗斯首都莫斯科；上合国际枢纽港汽车交易中心，388辆崭新的新能源汽车即将完成查验手 续，发往阿联酋迪拜港；青岛·上合之珠国际博览中心内，阿富汗小伙安泽正向顾客热情推介家乡特 产，有香气四溢的松子、图案精美的地毯……一幕幕场景，是上合示范区人流、物流、商流高效集聚的 生动写照。 2018年6月，习近平主席在上合组织青岛峰会上郑重宣布，中国政府支持在青岛建设中国—上海合作组 织地方经贸合作示范区。几年来，上合示范区持续探索新型区域合作之路。 不久前，俄罗斯圣彼得堡阿尔泰克斯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The excessive consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is leading to a significant increase in chronic diseases globally, including diabetes and cardiovascular diseases, with alarming trends observed particularly in China [5][8][11]. Group 1: Global Impact of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages - A study published in *Nature Medicine* analyzed health data from 118 countries and found that in 2020, SSBs were responsible for 220,000 new cases of type 2 diabetes (T2D), accounting for 9.8% of global new cases, and 120,000 new cases of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), representing 3.1% [8][9]. - The research also indicated that SSBs were linked to approximately 340,000 deaths globally, with T2D-related deaths at 80,278 and CVD-related deaths at 257,962 [8][9]. Group 2: The Situation in China - A study by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention revealed that from 1990 to 2019, deaths related to SSB consumption in China surged by 95%, rising from a low base to 46,633 deaths in 2019 [11]. - The proportion of deaths attributable to SSBs increased from 0.34% to 0.46%, indicating that nearly 1 in every 200 deaths is directly related to these beverages [11]. - Ischemic heart disease (IHD) and diabetes were identified as the two leading causes of death linked to SSBs, with IHD-related deaths reaching 42,098 in 2019, reflecting a 95% increase over 30 years [12]. Group 3: Health Risks Associated with SSBs - A long-term study published in *The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition* found that daily consumption of over 500ml of SSBs increases the risk of asthma by 19% and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk by 53% [13][14]. - The study also highlighted that artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) pose even greater risks, with a 34% increase in COPD risk and a 10% increase in asthma risk for those consuming two cups daily [13][14].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The underlying profit for the company was $5.5 billion, and the recurring underlying profit was $4.7 billion, remaining close to the prior year [10][12] - Statutory profits decreased to $815 million due to changes in the value of investment properties [10] - The company declared a 4% increase in ordinary dividend per A share to HKD 130 [7][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Property division saw a 15% growth in underlying profit, driven by higher disposal gains, while recurring profit was down 4% [15][16] - In Beverages, revenue from the Chinese Mainland increased by 3%, with EBITDA margin improving to 12.8% [22][26] - Aviation division's recurring profit increased by 40%, with Cathay Pacific's passenger revenue up 14% [28][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The retail market in the Chinese Mainland is performing well, offsetting softness in the Hong Kong office market [8][20] - The Chinese Mainland's attributable gross rental income has shown a healthy CAGR of 11% from 2016 to 2024 [20] - Revenue from the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong grew, while revenue declined slightly in Taiwan and Vietnam due to market challenges [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to investing HKD 100 billion over the next ten years, with 67% of that already committed [3][16] - There is a strong pipeline of projects in the Chinese Mainland, with several major developments underway [17][20] - The company is focusing on sustainability, with significant investments in renewable energy across its core divisions [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expects continued uncertainty in core markets, particularly in Hong Kong's office sector and Southeast Asia's beverage market [34][35] - The aviation sector is anticipated to maintain robust travel demand, while cargo market conditions remain uncertain [36] - The company is optimistic about the performance of its healthcare investments, particularly in Indonesia and Shanghai [32][51] Other Important Information - The company has completed significant land sales in Miami, contributing to its capital recycling strategy [15] - The beverage division is expanding production capacity with new plants in China and Vietnam [6][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding beverage ASP growth in Mainland China and outlook - Management noted that revenue grew by 3% and profit by 8% in the Chinese Mainland, driven by pricing initiatives, with a positive sparkling growth rate of 2.7% [40][41] - The company remains cautious about the outlook in China, focusing on long-term strategic initiatives to adapt to consumer trends [42] Question: On Southeast Asia challenges and share buyback plans - Management acknowledged the challenges in Southeast Asia but did not provide a specific timeline for a turnaround [39] - The share buyback program was completed, with a focus on long-term strategic investments over short-term solutions [43][44] Question: Strategic outlook for the next three to five years - The company has a strong pipeline of investments across core divisions, particularly in aviation and property, with a focus on the Chinese Mainland [49][50] - In healthcare, the company is taking a cautious approach, focusing on existing investments before pursuing new opportunities [52]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the efforts of the State Grid Xinzhou Power Supply Company in enhancing the power infrastructure and services in the Yellow River region, which supports ecological protection and local economic development. Group 1: Power Infrastructure Development - The company has completed the insulation transformation of the 10 kV Huanglongchi Line, increasing the wire diameter from 70 square millimeters to 150 square millimeters over a distance of 12.8 kilometers, addressing power supply concerns for the scenic area [3] - Since 2017, the company has implemented rural power grid renovation projects, focusing on the three counties along the Yellow River, constructing and renovating 1,451.67 kilometers of 10 kV distribution network lines and adding 1,186 transformer stations with a total capacity of 287,550 kVA [10] Group 2: Economic Empowerment through Electricity - The company has facilitated the development of the Haihongguo industry in Hequ County, which has expanded its planting area and established a modern agricultural industry chain, leading to the establishment of eight processing enterprises that can process over 40,000 tons of Haihongguo annually [7][8] - The Haihongguo industry has directly benefited over 2,000 fruit farmers, enhancing their income and contributing to local economic growth [7] Group 3: Community and Quality of Life Improvement - The company has supported the relocation and infrastructure development for 213 households in the Jiajiamao Village, improving living conditions and enabling residents to engage in local industries, such as livestock farming [9] - The upgrade of power supply has significantly improved the quality of life for residents, allowing for modern conveniences and reducing reliance on coal for heating [9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of visual appeal in food, emphasizing that humans are increasingly influenced by the appearance of food, particularly in the age of smartphones [1][5][7] - It highlights the role of food colorants in enhancing and restoring the natural colors of ingredients, making food visually attractive [2][8] - The article mentions the psychological impact of color on taste perception, supported by research in sensory integration and the emerging field of gastrophysics [6][7] Group 2 - The article outlines the types of food colorants used in China, including 11 synthetic colorants and various natural sources, regulated by national standards [8][9][10] - It discusses the safety concerns surrounding synthetic additives, particularly titanium dioxide, which has faced legal scrutiny in the U.S. and a ban in Europe due to potential health risks [12][14][15] - The article also notes the ongoing research to find natural alternatives to synthetic colorants, particularly for rare colors like blue [16][19][20] Group 3 - The article introduces the concept of structural color, which does not rely on additives but rather on the physical structure of materials to create color effects, as demonstrated by recent innovations in chocolate [27][29] - It discusses the consumer interest in visually appealing food, including the use of edible glitter and gold leaf, while also addressing regulatory concerns regarding their safety and classification [30][33][35] - The article concludes with a mention of the lack of specific national standards for edible glitter in China, emphasizing the need for compliance with existing food safety regulations [36][37]

Core Viewpoint - Consumer demand in the food and beverage sector is stabilizing at a low level, with structural highlights emerging despite overall weak consumer confidence. The sector is expected to improve marginally in the second half of 2025 due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [1][4]. Group 1: Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to see a marginal improvement in demand in the second half of 2025, driven by government policies to stimulate consumption and encourage childbirth [1]. - The mass food segment has shown signs of improvement since March 2025, with expectations for continued growth in new consumption trends such as spicy snacks, healthy beverages, and sparkling yellow wine [1][4]. - The liquor sector, particularly baijiu, is experiencing a valuation correction due to macroeconomic factors and policy impacts, with the fundamentals currently at a bottoming stage [1][4]. Group 2: Mass Food Segment - The mass food sector is expected to see stable demand growth, with high-growth sub-sectors like leisure snacks and soft drinks maintaining innovation and high market activity [4][7]. - The leisure snack market is witnessing a shift towards health-oriented and flavorful products, with ingredients like konjac and high-protein snacks gaining popularity [11][17]. - The soft drink sector is experiencing robust growth, particularly in health-related subcategories, with innovations in products like sugar-free tea and electrolyte water [19][27]. Group 3: Channel Trends - The snack retail channel is expanding, with significant growth in discount supermarkets and membership-based stores, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [8][9]. - E-commerce channels, including short video platforms and community group buying, continue to grow, with notable sales increases during shopping festivals [9][19]. - Traditional supermarkets are undergoing transformations to adapt to changing consumer preferences, with a focus on enhancing product offerings and store formats [9][10]. Group 4: Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is facing a downturn, with demand expected to remain under pressure in the second half of 2025, although leading brands are focusing on long-term value creation [4][52]. - The impact of government regulations on consumption patterns is being monitored, with expectations for gradual recovery in consumer demand for baijiu [53][55]. - The pricing dynamics of leading brands like Moutai are stabilizing after significant fluctuations, indicating a potential for recovery in the market [55][57]. Group 5: Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a mixed recovery, with some categories like liquid milk and cheese showing signs of improvement, while overall demand remains weak [30][31]. - The cost of raw milk has decreased, which is expected to benefit dairy companies' profit margins in 2025 [31][37]. - Long-term growth opportunities exist in emerging dairy categories and international markets, as companies expand their product lines and distribution channels [46][47]. Group 6: Frozen Foods and Condiments - The frozen food sector is expected to see revenue growth in the second half of 2025 as companies shift focus to consumer channels amid weak restaurant demand [49][50]. - The condiment industry is facing pressure from external demand but is benefiting from lower raw material costs, which may enhance profit margins [51]. - Companies are actively pursuing innovation and market expansion to adapt to changing consumer preferences and competitive pressures [51].